Written By: Scott Hetsko
I know... I know...you're watching the long range models hoping for something you can hang your hat on! It's not going to happen, at least the next 7-12 days. No significant snowstorm will hit the area in that time frame but at least some lake snows are back this weekend. Saturday night and early Sunday are looking good for a rich, cold flow of 310 degree winds which would produce several inches of snow near and along I 90.
The "nickel and dime" posts are coming, I can feel it!
any idea on amounts north of 104?
ReplyDeleteHey Scott I guess we have no hope for a large scale snowstorm. But here is what I do not get. We know you are awesome but how can you be so positive that the storm next week that is 5-6 days out has no chance to move much farther west and come through Pa. There were earlier models with 12Z for the GFS that had a storm doing that. I know you are more advanced and look at much more than just models. But many experts had that Christmas storm going out much farther to sea within two days before it hammered NYC. It moved a great deal west. I guess that I am asking and not with disrespect or sarcasm do you ever miss in your long range predictions.
ReplyDeleteha, no nickel and dime post from me. No point in looking for a doozy of a storm anymore. It is what it is for the moment. I'm just glad we have SOMETHING to talk about in terms of snow. It could be worse. I hear the home town of your alma mater is in quite a snow drought. I don't think they've seen more than 6" the entire season at State College, PA. Joe Bastardi must be really looking ahead for a big storm to hit that area.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, it's cool you used wind vector (310) to describe the flow. I'm liking the more tecky stuff!
NAM is really hinting at some pretty good parameters Saturday night and Sunday for Wayne and Monroe ctys. We'll see!
ReplyDeleteNews 8 what does your last post mean NAM hinting at some good parameters?
ReplyDeleteMy GUESS is good LES for North of the thruway Monroe/Wayne County to get good amounts is what they are hinting at....
ReplyDeleteThis blog is dead what is happening?
ReplyDeleteWaiting to here about tomorrow LES event? Might be decent 4-8 north of 104? No storms on horizon next week. Maybe another one but way too far out.
ReplyDeleteDavid is that what the post meant from News 8 about some pretty good parameters for tomorrow night into Sunday? They were talking significant LES possibilities for the city and surrounding suburbs?
ReplyDeleteYes, same event. the 4-8" is just my opinion. Fox/8 hasnt said anything yet....
ReplyDeleteI happen to think LES is very pretty and I love how it just blows through. If you guys really want some winter weather go hike some mountains in the ADKs. Even with no storms a good 60mph sustained wind at elevation will make you think you're in a blizzard - just make sure to gear up. That's how I supplement my winter weather diet anyway :)
ReplyDeleteThe latest 12z NAM doesn't look as impressive as it did last night. That could shift back again, but right now, i'm not as impressed by the parameters as I was with last night's run that Scott mentioned. But who knows, it could just be that the NAM is struggling to pick up the mesoscale stuff.
ReplyDeleteWill News 8 be updating the blog with their expectations shortly?
ReplyDeleteI was wondering the same thing....
ReplyDeleteWhen will the winds finally veer to more NW'erly? I didn't think the winds were supposed to stay WSW right through Friday as they have been.
ReplyDeleteHere's an update: I am still expected lake snows to develop near and along the thruway Saturday night and Sunday. Still expect some areas to record over 6" but I seem to be the only one who thinks this but hey why not go out on that limb.
ReplyDeleteHistory shows that with the 12-16 hour setup of 310-330 winds, 850mb temps of -12 to -14C and high relative humidity in the layer, we should at least get a few inches in bands.
Channel 8's personal lake effect model is showing the potential for this to occur. Time will tell!
Scott Hetsko
I know some will ask: "Can we see the model?" Sorry but the only way you can is when we show it on air.
ReplyDeleteThe latest 18z run of the NAM has jumped back to a more impressive solution for snow. It has up to half an inch of liquid equivalent right smack over the Rochester metro. IF this were to verify...and that's a big IF....then I can see advisory criteria snowfall happening from Saturday PM right through Sunday. Maybe Warning criteria when all is said and done. Normally I wouldn't pay attention to the 18z run, but considering it's within just ONE day away, I suppose it has some value.
ReplyDeleteAgain I go by history and previous experience over models any day.
ReplyDeleteScott
Sorry Scott, didn't see your update before I commented. Otherwise, I wouldn't have posted.
ReplyDeleteOne thing is for sure, i'll be watching news 8 and Fox Rochester tonight. Bring on the snow.
Hey Scott how about a deal you are right again on this one tomorrow but wrong on the one next Tuesday-Wednesday with the storm making a huge westward movement and we get blasted by that one?
ReplyDeleteI can see it now. The NWS will issue either an Advisory or perhaps even a Watch/Warning for Wayne county eastward by tomorrow. They will probably have to ADD Monroe county in later after leaving us out. But then again, I will give them credit, they seemed to get a little bit better with the last two events in December when they included us right off the bat - and rightfully so.
ReplyDeleteIn any case, I think you're right though Scott. You said back in December that models don't do a good job picking up on the very mesoscale stuff, and we ended up with 46 inches...most of it falling in a two week period. Yep, I'd say the models didn't exact see that degree of snow coming.
If anyone has time this weekend, you should take a trip to the lake ontario shore. There are some absolutely incredible iceberg looking formations out there right along Durand Beach. It's pretty surreal. Don't be a fair weather friend to our lake, she is more spectacular now than ANY beautiful summer day.
ReplyDeleteHenry... is that storm next week showing a large westward shift?
ReplyDelete8-9 days out a pretty good front coming through? This according to ynn? Clipper?
ReplyDeleteI don't where this Westward shift in next weeks storm is being found online but I don't see any evidence of any storm directly hitting us. I do feel that lake enhanced snow will become more likely from Wed-Fri of next week.
ReplyDeleteScott
All we ever get is lake effect. Unbelievable. Alabama is supposed to get 6-8 inches of snow. That is bigger than any synoptic storm we have had this year. How depressing when the South gets a bigger synoptic snow and we have not had one this year. Sick
ReplyDeleteThere is no westward shift in next weeks storm at least on gfs or nam. next weeks storm east of us. Watch the week after, 18th or so accuweather had a video of a possible storm in the northeast again.
ReplyDeleteI am not going to agree that there has not been any westward movement with the storm on some models next week. Now it may not come west far enough but I am not going to close the door still 5 days out. Things change see the recent Christmas storm. We amy at least be on the edge of it which could give us several inches. A bigger shift could put us in the prime spot. I will close the doors if the 12z GFS on Sunday closes it for me.
ReplyDeleteYep, my friends in Nashville are stoked that they are about to get a snow and we are not. they have been teasing me all day! I should put the plow on the truck and head south! I would make a killing in a weeks time!!
ReplyDeleteEven if there is a westward shift, it's only a shift from being WAAAAAY to our east to just being way to our east. Either way, it's a miss!
ReplyDeleteBut who cares, we've missed several already, we can miss a few more. We got some nice LES on the way tomorrow and Sunday.
Enjoy it up there DK, I am sure we will have sun down here in Sparta to melt away the dusting we got last night.
ReplyDeleteDK, you need to be more considerate to our snow lovers to our South that have seen hardly any snow this year compared to lake shore people. Some make their living off snow. People to our South, lake effect is no big deal. 6 inches of fluff turns into 1 inch on the ground the next day after it compacts to nothing. I would rather have no snow than get this crappy .5 inches here, .4 inches there. We have a whopping snow depth of .5 inches in Gananda. It has been cold since December 1st and how many storms have we had. A BIG 0. Bring on spring.
ReplyDeleteI do not know where the airpot has rceived 2.5 inches of snow and water equivalent of .25. I think they are counting the tons of salt we seem to put down for the .5 inches of snow we get.
ReplyDeleteGuess what everyone- The GFS is locking in on a storm for next weekend that is going to our West. I know that shocks everyone . Storms to our West, storms to our South, storms to our east. This weeekend we get to be spectators to a major snowstorm that hits the south. Unbelievable. I have become numb to this because we miss every single storm.
ReplyDeleteNext week we get to be spectators to a storm that hits the East coast again and missess us. We missed the storms from yesterday that hit Eastern NY and CT, The beat goes on and on and on. Lake snow sucks.
ReplyDeleteWhoever said we would see a BIG storm in January was obviously VERY VERY VERY wrong.
ReplyDeleteGFS has a storm going to our west? wouldn't that mean a warm up then? It's really not that far from western NY. Next weekend the 15th,it might be just a strong front coming through, cause it looks like it dives east and south. YNN buffalo meteorologist stated yesterday perhaps 8-9 days out a strong front could be heading through.
ReplyDeleteNever give up hope a storm can change paths within 24-48 hrs before it hits. Not sure why some feel the storm for Weds. is not trending west because it is check the latest runs. Keep an eye on the 12z GFS runs (most reliable) the next few days and see if there is and movement to the west. You never know!
ReplyDeleteI like the guy that knows our weather for the rest of January. You should post your name so we can look for you on here when we got a storm by the end of the month.
ReplyDeleteFinally the wind is turning! The LES shows more movement towards south! I hope I will see some snow today before I am going back home were its awfully warm! :(
ReplyDeleteThe GFS shows the storm early next week way way way off-shore not to be a player here at all. The storm next weekend and the week after that to our West. Sorry snowlovers. That means warmer and rain with cold on the backside and crappy lake effect.
ReplyDeleteNorth Greece / Charlotte. HEAVY snow, cant even see my neighbors house. solid 2-3inches an hour..
ReplyDeleteSunny in Gananda-Wayne County.
ReplyDeleteDavid, My buddy plows up your way and said that he has been busy all day! I haven't put the plow on once this year! I should have bought more power tols instead of plow parts this year because I sure do not need it. Anyone want to buy a really nice Western Plow?? LOL We have had very very fine snow here in Sparta. I took a drive to Wyoming this morning a little past Leister it started to pick up a bit then it stopped before I got to Wyoming, it stopped. On the way back, I went through Dansville and the snow was much heavier down there. Took a drive up to wayland where the the flakes were nice and big coming down at a good clip. I should mention that Dansville and Wayland both had snow on the roads and that the plows had been out. Coming home, I took the back roads from Wayland to Sparta and the size of the flakes would be huge, medium and then back at the house just very very fine light snow. It was a nice drive and I got to play around a little in the truck! Enjoy your LES up that way fellas! Henry, I am still hoping for a reason to put the plow on!
ReplyDeleteVERY heavy snow in Penfield! The LES keeps building up over the lake! Looking good! :)
ReplyDeleteStill nothing in Gananda and the LES over the lake is diminishing with the radar I am looking at. What part of penfield are you in? I am on the border of Penfield and I have nothing.
ReplyDeleteThe snow is beginning to taper here in Hilton, but we got about 3 inches in the last 2 hours! That is more snow than we have had all at once all winter so far. (We kept missing all the previous LES)
ReplyDeleteLES has been nice and heavy in the metro for a good 45 min now
ReplyDeleteJust started snowing in Gananda. Moderate.
ReplyDelete3 inches of fluff will be 1 inch at most by tomorrow. It is all air.
ReplyDeleteWoW really you have no snow?!?! Its was snowing so bad over her! We already picked up about 2"! Its crazy...
ReplyDeleteI am living on Embury road! Right next to 5mile.
Even if the snow got less now it is still snowing pretty heavy!
Is News 8 working today?
ReplyDeleteWe had a brief burst of snow and now it is light. About .5 inches in Gananda. NBD
ReplyDeleteThe NWS Long Term forecast state that we will have a brief but significat warm-up in about 2 weeks and then cold again
ReplyDeleteStarted snowing in Lyons about 15 mins. ago. Coming down pretty good right now.
ReplyDeleteStill very fine snow falling in Sparta. I wonder if that band off of Ontario will make it this far down. I know it will make it to Avon but not sure if it can make it another 20 miles!
ReplyDeleteAlright, the flakes have gotten bigger here in Sparta and it is coming down harder too! I like it!! Although, I have no idea where it is coming from as the radar shows nothing over us. But hey, I will take it. I am hopeful that it keeps up. Even as I type this and look out the window, the flakes continue to get bigger and it is snowing harder! I love it, I am getting a little of my snow fix. I think i iwll go make a pot of coffee and enjoy it!
ReplyDeleteDon't see where on gfs or nam where any storms are now going to the west of us on the model runs.
ReplyDeleteOF NOTE...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT
ReplyDeleteMJO EPISODE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. MEAN OLR ANOMALIES OVER THE PAST WEEK SHOW ENHANCED
CONVECTION CONCENTRATING OVER TROPICAL SOUTHEAST ASIA. GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WITH WHEELER PHASE
SPACE PLOTS BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING A MODERATE TO STRONG
MJO SIGNAL ORBITING INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AFTER ABOUT 20-JAN.
IF THIS VERIFIES...THAT WOULD PUT US INTO PHASE 8 AND PHASE 1 OF THE
MJO CYCLE FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO OF JANUARY...WITH COMPOSITE
ANALOGS SHOWING A STRONG CORRELATION TOWARDS BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP IN THE GREAT LAKES WHEN IN
THESE PHASES. THUS...IF THE MJO FORECAST VERIFIES WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO OF JANUARY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINUANCE
OF THE GREENLAND BLOCK. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THE MJO CYCLE ALSO
SUPPORTS A BRIEF BUT POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AS WE PASS THROUGH
PHASE 5 AND 6 IN A WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH THE
ECMWF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE.
See above-significant warm-up/ That only means that storms will go to our west.
ReplyDeleteWe received a whopping, huge, earth shattering, shocking, unbelievable 1 whole inch of snow in Gananda. Shut the schools, close the roads. What a joke. LOL
ReplyDeleteWe picked up 4" in north Penfield today.
ReplyDeleteDoes someone know how much more we can expect? Or was that it?
Also it says it could be well below temperatures too. the warm up will probably be like 2-3 days and 46 is the highest I've seen in long term forecasts and then it gets cold again, with lake effect etc, maybe a storm.
ReplyDeleteI saw that as well "Anonymous". A high of 46 one day or two but it was about a week ago. i can not remember what site I was reading about it on! Henry..Where are are you hiding? I see there are three Lows that are going to merge this week, is that right? I know you had blogged earlier about a slight shift to the West. Does it still look that way? I know its a few days out still...Alos, snow is coming down quite heavy here in Sparta. I might just put the plow on tonight and clear off the drive for fun!
ReplyDeleteThe radar is clear.
ReplyDeleteNot sure which radar you are looking at but there is a clear band of LES that working it's way southward.
ReplyDeleteThere's also fingers is LES developing now just south of the lake shore as the winds back from NE to NW. As that increases fetch, those fingers might increase in intensity for awhile this evening over ROC metro.
ReplyDeleteDK, That band, although it is getting weaker as it goes, is just going to brush us down here in Sparta! I will take it! I has slowly rotated itself as it has shifted to the South. Do you think the "fingers" you mentioned will be able to stretch my way overnight? Does tomorrow look like a repeat of today? Thanks! Also, where is a NEW post from The Mets??
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteThis should be the main batch of snow for you in Sparta. You may catch some "upslope" snow with the higher terrain out that way later tonight or early tomorrow, but probably nothing as steady as this current batch passing south. I'm pulling for you to get more than expected though!
Thanks Buddy! I am hoping that tomorrow will be a repeat of today and that perhaps we will get some off that one Tuesday and Wednesday too!! I am enjoying the heavier snow we are getting now. If it dumps a few inches by morning, I am putting the plow on!! How much do you have up your way? I would say we have about 2.5 maybe three now and it is still coming down!
ReplyDeleteChris I have not been hiding posted something this morning however unfortunately Rochester's most accurate forecaster will be right again. Things appear will stay to far east. I also can not take the negative vibes on the blog we will never a get big storm with all the negative energy. Sorry I missed again and then some like to get on you when you are wrong yet they would the first to be pumped if we got a big storm and saying I told you so. By the way what happened to Charles Wachael?
ReplyDeleteYeah, Where is Charles? We still have a little bit of snow falling down my way. It has switched back to the finer snow flakes. I just shoveled the walkway and I will keep an eye on it to see what else falls this evening. Tomorrow, we are going to take the girls outside to play in the snow that we got today! I am still hoping for the big one or maybe two this season! I am sure there are many more including us who are wishing for the same! Lets all do the snow dance!
ReplyDeleteWe have alot of time to get snow/storm, its only January 8. We have the rest of the month and February,march and this is western NY, anything can happen!
ReplyDeleteDont give up on next week just yet....
ReplyDeleteOh, No worries, I am not giving up! Unless I see sunny and 70's! Bring on the snow!!
ReplyDelete4.5" at my location on the east side of Rochester. Most of those inches falling within two hours late this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteStarting to snow again here in North Greece / Charlotte. Radar is starting to light up again..
ReplyDeleteIt has stopped snowing down here in Sparta. maybe one of those fingers will make it down this way for another burst or two!
ReplyDeleteHere's an observation. I have been seeing multiple (10+) robins feeding in the woods near my house. The last time I saw this in Jan was in the 80s and it was a short winter. These guys may have to put up with some short term discomfort but hopefully they are predicting a rapid demise to the snow pack at least. I actually trust these feathered forecasters more than all the computer models combined.
ReplyDeleteHope they know what they are doing hanging around here--think warm!!
NAM has next weeks storm parked over NYC now. Keep moving east baby....
ReplyDeleteEast or West?
ReplyDeleteWest David, West!!!...Once again, we have nice fluffy flakes flying down to the South! It was nice to wake up and see the snow falling. Not sure how long it will last or much will fall but It is nice to see it!! Also, I think the Mets forgot about about the blog!
ReplyDeleteOntario- a dusting overnight. Flurries at present- currently intensifying. Pressure 29.91, 23.8F.
ReplyDeleteMust be Lyons is in the sweet spot AGAIN for this lake effect event. Been snowing hard most of the morning. Already 6+ inches and still coming down.
ReplyDeleteSal, I was looking at that on the radar this morning! Enjoy it my friend! John, the same for you as well! I hope that we can get a band of that down my way again today. The snow has stopped here now and there are some breaks in the clouds with blue peeking out. I will cross my fingers for more snow today!
ReplyDeleteI meant West.....
ReplyDelete