Written By: Scott Hetsko
The pesky band of lake effect snow that has been spraying areas near the city and North will continue tonight as it slowly moves more into Wayne County this evening. Lake snow advisory for Wayne County for another 3-5" of snow in the most persistent bands this evening. Areas outside the band will see only flurries tonight and many South will have starlight and very cold temperatures.
Let me know you local weather especially in lake effect areas, thanks!
The snow depth changed dramatically as I travel north on Winton Road from East Avenue to Irondequoit. There's plenty of grass showing through the dusting of snow at East Ave, but by the time I got to the 104 underpass, side roads were snow covered, and a good 3 or 4 inches was on the ground. What a dramatic change in what was literally a 5 minute drive.
ReplyDelete4 Inches in North Greece/ Charlotte...
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable! Truly what lake effect is all about. That's why I call it "zip code snow"
ReplyDeleteScott
The band is over the lake for the most part but will visit Northern Wayne County later tonight
ReplyDeleteMust be nice :( Enjoy it guys!
ReplyDeleteHad a quick burst of heavy snow downtown. It helped whiten things up a little bit but still just a dusting for the most part. Now if you'll excuse me, I must be getting back to selling paper.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteDave Sage, who has recently retired from the National Weather Service in Buffalo, called this region one of the most challenging areas to forecast in the world. I have to agree 100 percent. Outside of the very low populated mountainous regions, there are few areas that experience such wild mesoscale swings in weather over such a short space, and over such a populated space at that. You guys have to be pretty tough meteorlogists to dive right into such a challenging region. Just want to say kudos.
Any chance we'll get a couple inches on Thursday / Friday to top off this snow?
ReplyDeleteI've had the pleasure of meeting Dave Sage once or twice and he's absolutely right! I cannot think of many other well populated regions in the world that are much more of a challenge to forecast in Winter. Today is the perfect example.
ReplyDeleteTo Trenton: I think a general light areawide snowfall Thursday night and early Friday. Some weekend lake effect again but that will be localized.
Hey Scott,
ReplyDeleteI know it is several days away and I know it is almost impossible to long range forecast beyond 3 days. But based on your expertise and if you have had the time to look what do you think about the next storm people are tracking for next week? The models have flipped as they usually do but I think the trends are showing the ingredients will be there for a big storm and as I see the trend with models is a more westerly track for this one. And I learned in weather for dummies that "The trend is your friend". Just wondering what your thougths are? Thanks you guys do a great job!
Hi Henry and thanks for the kind words! I would pay little attention to the 6 and 18Z runs of the GFS. Because they are more rapid cycle runs, the are less accurate in predicting cyclogenesis (storm development) and thus the placement of said storms. 12Z and EURO agree on another miss for our area, I'd bank on that given the recent history and trend.
ReplyDeleteScott
Henry, Agree with the westerly trend. Im trying to keep my optimism and giddyness to myself for a few more days. I like what im seeing do far!
ReplyDeleteThanks Scott that is not good for our snow lovers . When I say ingredients I was refering to the NAO and PNA being in good areas at that time to produce a blockbuster. Also I thought we would be more in the game because the trough will be more westerly with this storm.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteIt seems there will be a decent amount of moisture in place from Thursday right through Saturday, with the winds possibly veering from SW to more W or NW by Friday. Am I correct in that....and do you see any lake enhancement possibilities for the ROC metro by Friday as the winds veer?
Yep DK I expect the combo of moisture + cold enough air would be enough to produce several inches of snowfall in the area.
ReplyDeleteScott
Thanks! I'm looking forward to having a deeper snow pack in my back yard than the current sugar coating.
ReplyDeleteOkay Scott, you say, "in the area". I assume you mean north of the thruway right? Nothing for the southerntier as usual? Thanks
ReplyDeleteIf you are one of those folks that absolutely loves snow to the point where it effects your mood when you miss out on it (I am one of them), and you happen to live farther south into the middle Genesee Valley, I really suggest you consider moving closer to the lake if you are able to. The fact of the matter is, it just doesn't snow as much down there. The lake Ontario bordering counties (Monroe and east) will almost always have more snow at the end of the day than farther south. It's not about luck, it's our climate. For some that's a good thing, for others it's torture to be a spectator. I know, i've been there...
ReplyDeleteI used to live in Geneseo until I moved to Irondequoit a couple years ago. It's literally like moving to a totally different region since i've been here. WAAAAY more snow in general than I ever recall experiencing in Livingston county.
That's one healthy looking band out on lake Ontario. Too bad it's offshore - it's a single band and looks very organized.
ReplyDeleteThanks WNY, Funny you say that because as I typed as my last post, I was thinking, why don't we just move to the lake area! However, we are moving back to Nashville sometime this summer. Instead of snow, we will be chasing tornados!!! However, Nashville and the surrounding towns around it have been getting more and more snow each winter over the past few years. I am hopefull that my girls will get to see a huge snow storm before we go back.
ReplyDeleteTravelled from East Webster to Clyde to Newark and back to Webster today. 5-6 inches in Clyde, 1-2 in Newark and about 6 in East Webster.
ReplyDeleteLyons: 3.5" of lake snow. cold and windy down here.
ReplyDeleteHey DK trying to stay positive but looking more and more like the next big one may also go east again. Just thought the trough would move it more west but not sure more and more runs taking it east.Well we still have alot of time maybe we will get lucky and be the big winners instead of the big cities. Also, do not like Rochester's most accurate forecaster believes it will be too far east. Maybe Scott can finally miss one not that I would ever root against Scott.
ReplyDeleteThe difference between Scott and a lot of other forecasters (not including the channel 8 team) is that he doesn't just go by what computer models are printing out...he also looks at things like climatology, trends and something that is called "pattern recognition." Those are things that only a skilled and experienced meteorlogist can pull off. On more than one occasion Scott said flat out that the models were wrong and that the storm would track differently than what is being projected. And on those occasions, wouldn't ya know, he was right. He's a pretty smart dude, so I wouldn't bet against him, as tempting as it may be when it works in the snow lover's favor.
ReplyDeleteSodus Point has about 3", while along Rt. 104 there is about 6". The deepest snow I encountered on my commute today was in North Rose, about one mile south of Rt. 104. They had an easy 8" at 7:00am and ended the day with 10".
ReplyDeleteHenry, Henry, Henry....I keep hoping those models change in our favor for next week. I am tired of just cold and no snow :( I would rather have summer than cold with no snow. I am still trying to hold hope that we at least get a 6-8 inch down here at some point this winter.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteIs there any chance of the norlun instability trough making as far west as WNY late this week or early weekend?
Scott, Tues. 18th, model runs of NAM and The GFS have most of new york with a blue oval. Is this snow? Possibly from a storm or maybe a general snowfall or is this something else?
ReplyDeleteWith the way winter has been, It is probably bright blue skies! ;)
ReplyDeleteWow, the 18th? Really? You really think anything useful can be extracted from any single operational model for nearly two full weeks out? The GFS consistently has WNY under a blizzard at around hour 360 - 384. It never happens.
ReplyDeleteJust about bare ground in Gananda. No snow at all today. Bring on spring. No storms in sight. Just the crappy nickle and dime fluff for a select few. This winter sucks. Cold air and no storms. Same old pattern/
ReplyDeleteDK things are just not looking like anything goog for western NY. Just seems like every scenario is too far east or OTS. I have just about given up hope for any big storms in Rochester. I tried to stay positive and things did look like a western solution with western Pa and NY getting hit hard with the storm next week. But no longer we have had one synoptic snow storm with 11 inches in the last 2 winters. It is time for me to give it up and get to warm and spring because the cold with minimal snow really stinks.
ReplyDeleteWho knows if this winter will bring us any doozy of a storm. But I think once we get out of this ENSO stuff and have a good old fashioned neutral year, we'll start to see things go back to the good ole days of getting a couple of major storms per season with several moderate storms in between. I have high hopes for next winter and the next couple winters after that. I know, I know, who cares about next winter when we're just beginning this one.
ReplyDeleteBut hey, we'll take what we can get for now. And it looks like several inches widespread is a good bet by the end of the weekend. It's not much, but it will give us our decent snow cover back. I'm happy once I can no longer see the blades of grass poking through the snow. Anything on top of that is even better.
Bring on spring and warm weather. Old man winter is a wimp and a bust.
ReplyDeleteDK, Henry, & "Anonymous", I have to agree with all of you. As I mentioned before, ya'll (At least DK & Henry and of course the Pro METS) are for more advanced at studying the models and runs than I am. I am begining to give up on a good dose of heavy snow for us as it all goes to the Mid Atlantic folks. DK said it best that if we can get back to a regular pattern perhaps winters to come will yield good snows for all. I wont be here for them but I will still keep a good thought that ya'll get it. I will be sure to pop into the blog from Nashville and let ya'll know what kind of winters we are having. I recall one winter where we recieved 12 inches and it pretty much put the city in lock down mode! I was getting dirty looks as I cruised along with no issues of driving. This was of course after they had cleared the roads of most heavy snow. Who know, next weekend is a long way out and perhaps it could change for us. Here's to hoping for it!
ReplyDeleteWhere is the Thursday Post from the METS?
ReplyDeleteNothing to post Chris we are out of all the good action the next several weeks.
ReplyDeleteThats for darn sight sure :)
ReplyDeleteYou say "we are out of all the good action" as if we ever had any action to begin with lol. We've missed every storm that has ever come near us when the cold air was in place. Just wait till spring when it turns warm. Then all the storms will be socking us from every direction head on. And every drop of it will be rain.
ReplyDeleteYou are right Huskey! I love a good thunderstorm too! One thing is for sure, the BEST thunderstorms happen in the south with the high heat and humidity!!
ReplyDeleteNothing beats a 70 degree dewpoint night with the rumbling of nearby thunderstorms sprinkling WNY all night. Then to wake up to 78 hazy and humid degrees at 9 o clock in the morning, and checking the forecast and seeing a high of 92 with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms firing along the lake breeze. Good stuff. Good stuff.
ReplyDeleteWell the good thing is winter will come again in less than a year maybe things will change.I got to say I know Brian did a post with the guy from NWS service giving inormation about storms. I do remember when I was younger we would get storms and the coastal ones would come more inland and we would be the big winner in the Noreasters. The big cities were the exceptions. We would get nice ones through the Ohio valley or Appal. mountains. I never remember one synoptic snowfall of over ten inches in two years happening. We had at least two a winter when I was a teenager to 35.
ReplyDeleteThat is same as I remember it too! It just doesn't happen anymore. But we are getting some light snow down here in Sparta. Nothing to write home about but I wioo take it. If only the model would NOT change for the 19th, THAT would be a MONSTER!!!!
ReplyDeleteUm Chris we can not get a storm if the models said we would 7 days out. I think 13 days out will more than likely not happen but you keep an eye on it.
ReplyDeleteReally? Who Knew?? Smart ass!
ReplyDeleteon the 16th a clipper coming through? 19th one is out to sea, an another storm to our east on the 22nd? Just get enough to open the snowmobile trails please!
ReplyDelete