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Monday, February 3


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

The upcoming snow storm will begin well before dawn on Wednesday.  While the amounts are definitely manageable, enough snow will fall overnight and early to have an impact on the ride to work and school Wednesday morning.  Don't expect much from the lake as the storm pulls away quickly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Cold air will flow behind the system as high pressure cruises into the Northeast for the first half of the weekend.  Like you, we'll be watching the next low forecast to ride up the coast next Sunday and Monday.  There's no sense in trying to predict what that one will do until around Thursday.

126 comments:

  1. Scott do you think some schools may close Wednesday?

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  2. 5-9 is really NBD for Rochester. Just a typical small storm. It will be the biggest snow we have seen in over a month which is pretty incredible seeing how cold it has been. As far as Sunday/Monday my prediction is that it will be too far East for is to get significant snow. It will be more of an Eastern NY New England BIG event. I believe we will be spectators. Again, I am not being negative just giving my opinion based on climatology and trends. I hope I am wrong but I do not think this one is for us.

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  3. The most recent GGEM would place us closer to 9 or 10 inches for this one. The GFS is closer to 7 or 8. If this little trend of northward ticks continues then don't be surprised to see that 5-9 bumped upwards tomorrow. I've seen enough of these kinds of storms to lean somewhat towards a continuation of just such a trend. As for Sunday's storm, the difference between the latest GFS run and previous ones demonstrates perfectly why no one should latch onto any specific outcome yet. The low tracks seemingly almost too far offshore even for the coast on this run, yet a large part of the Northeast still gets a decent snowfall including us. I think this demonstrates just what kind of storm we may be dealing with...even a track seemingly too far east could produce in a substantial way for us.

    Off topic but pertaining to tonight's new Archer episode I've added a fourth name. This is strictly temporary though as four names is a bit excessive...

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  4. The NAM and GFS have increased as far as the snow totals go for this storm. The NAM gives us 12" and the GFS more than 8.

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  5. Wow. This blog is very quite for an impending snowstorm. I think we all like the anticipation of a storm better. The EURO has the weekends storm way out to see while the GFS came closer to the coast.

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  6. 4 inches tops north of the thruway for this storm that is way it is quiet.

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  7. Sorry but I think Scott is wrong on this one! I see 8-12 as a near certainty for us. Southern Tier is now forecasted for 10-18 inches. This baby is getting alot stronger! Projected totals keep rising. Scott called NBD from day 1...

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  8. Not an expert but I think the latest NAM run that just came out moved a bit NW and we get hammered with 12-18 inches? Not sure but do think the NAM in short term is usually good.

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  9. It's my snow storm and I'll cry if I want to!!

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  10. The NAM is almost always overdone on QPF even at close range. That said, there has definitely been a northward tick in the extent of the heavier QPF. I'd be surprised in anyone in WNY got 18 inches out of this, but someone could easily end up with over a foot. What I wouldn't be surprised to see is an upward adjustment in forecasted amounts along and north of the Thruway, perhaps towards the 8-12 inch range maybe, with amounts south of there in the 10-14 range.

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    Replies
    1. CCCC may be true that QPF overdone on NAM but have to think this close it at least would give us 8 inches. The GFS in 45 mins should give us more answers.

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  11. GFS shows next week a bit more inland. Looks like we could be in for a whopper of 12-24 inches! Color me excited! :)

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    1. You're setting yourself up for potential disappointment with so much uncertainty and model chaos remaining. Simmer down a bit, we're not even close to a consensus on that one yet.

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  12. Snowdog you are crazy and set yourself up for a let down. How can you even fathom saying 12-24 inches 6 days away and many saying it will be way east?

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  13. Well color me not. Who in their right mind wants to get hammered with that much snow? I wonder if the people on this blog have to actually get out and deal with this.

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    Replies
    1. Do not worry Anon 9:42 there will not be that much snow. Our Snowdog is a little out there with his wish casting for snow. Thus the handle Snowdog. No one has said that amount it is 6 days out. Snowdog is doing what is called wish casting.

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    2. I deal with it on the regular. I've learned to embrace it since there's nothing anyone can do to change it. No use fretting about things we can't control. The best we can ever hope for is that people exercise a little common sense and keep themselves (and others) out of harm's way.

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    3. You're both jumping the gun at least a little methinks. The envelope of potential tracks is about a thousand miles wide, so making any declarations whatsoever about amounts is an exercise in futility. Saying "there will not be that much snow" is just as premature as saying 1-2 feet.

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    4. Anon 9:42--Yes we do go out in it. Complaining about it won't change it and you have to learn to live where you live. Learn to ski, buy some snow shoes, learn to enjoy the beauty of snow.

      As Carol cheryl.... said, exercise some common sense and learn to embrace it.

      Andy

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  14. I think most of the people on this blog are snow lovers, like me!

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    Replies
    1. Depends on who is getting the snow.

      If anyone is still interested in voting on how much they think.

      http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652

      Or click my name.

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  15. Anybody see the one for the 13th or 14th? Looks like there are other storms to follow folks.

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    1. shhhhh, let's not work this place up into a full blown feeding frenzy :P

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    2. Kind of like when Scott said February tends to bring us a bit more gulf moisture to work with. He should really think about doing this for a living.

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  16. KW said upper end of that 6-10 inch projection with some areas getting a foot based on recent computer guidance. Nothing new from Scott yet he was pretty solid last night with 5-9 inches.

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  17. I get the feeling ol' Scott is gonna make some adjustments after seeing the newer model runs...

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  18. the NAM here wants to give us over 18 inches now http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

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    Replies
    1. Am reading that right? A foot and a half for my birthday (Saturday)? My wife was just asking me what I wanted.

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    2. I will take back every bad thing I've ever said about the NAM if that actually verifies...

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    3. No that is in the next 84 hours. That is tonights storm not this weekends storm

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    4. Even Better! Overdone I'm guessing. But even better.

      I've been telling my students all day that I don't think we'll have school tomorrow. I'm 1 for 1. I predicted we wouldn't have school on that really cold windy day last month. If I go 2/2 they'll think I'm a prophet.

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  19. Yes, latest GFS also puts us in 10-12 inch range by Wednesday night. I believe that is what is shows not an expert.

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  20. Wonder what are Scott's feelings now about this storm? Does he still think 5-9 or will he be making changes. He is still the best and want to hear from him or John.

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    Replies
    1. The 'ol flip flopper will change his totals and raise them...Other mets called 8-12+ from day one....

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    2. He did indeed say it would nothing to get excited over. Sorry but 8-12 inches or more certainly excites me! He should just admit he was wrong on this one and save face.

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  21. I think the NAM is going to verify. Have you looked at the radar with this storm? It looks huge and juicy!

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  22. Some of the other high resolution models are indicating amounts on the high end of the forecast range if not higher. And yes, that storm does appear friskier than modeled.

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  23. CCCC any update on what the 12z GFS showed in regards to Sunday storm?

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    Replies
    1. Big New England hit, moderate hit for WNY. Just one of many possible outcomes on the table.

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  24. I said all along this baby has been getting stronger. Scott kinda seemed to scoff at this storm, no big deal at all. Now that all the other forecasters are coming out with higher numbers, he will switch and up his numbers...He didn't get the nickname flip-flop for nothin haha...I do love Scott tho!

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  25. Looking more like 12-18 inches now with this system strengthening!! And next week...Oh boy. Looking at 1-2 feet on the latest model runs inland. Could we see 36 inches of snow over the next week?? I do believe it may be looking that way!

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    Replies
    1. So are we actually looking at 3 feet of snow for the weekend? I know they are focused on Wednesday, but we also need to plan for the weekend if that is the case.

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  26. I love how you delusional people love to call Scott out for his forecasts, despite his track record of being right far more often than the other stations. The reason he is the best is because he is measured in his thoughts and predictions. Scott uses facts, statistics, models, and probabilities to put out a forecast - he doesn't just sit in his basement like some of you tools pouring over models that hype up a storm forecast.

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    Replies
    1. I'll have you know, kind gentlesir, that my basement is a very pleasant place to live! I just wish it was better lit so it would be easier for me to groom my neckbeard...

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    2. I love Scott, but to be fair, he does put his forecasts out very last minute. I mean if were getting 12+ id kinda like to be warned sooner than hours before the storm. Other mets had higher numbers out 24-48 hrs before this storm. I just wish he didnt wait till the storm starts to tell us his numbers. No disrespect to Scott!

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  27. Is scott really gonna stick with 5-9 inches? Were only 10 hours away? Nearly every other meteorologist is in 8-12 or 12-18 range! Sorry but scott is gonna likely be WRONG on this one! Is he not seeing what we all see??

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  28. John said 2-6 over night and 4-7 during the day tomorrow. thats 6-13. So they are bumping up the totals a little. some places may still end up on the lower end, and some on larger end, remember, we have a huge viewing area. they have to account for that. and for those that are really busting on Scott, jeez give him a break. No wonder he does not post on here often. Some of you are constantly calling him out. you are lucky we even have this blog, he could easily take it down. be respectful and let him do his job. The storm could still diassapoint and we end up with 5-9 so you may eat crow. I am just trying to be a level head here folks.

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    1. I dont think anyone is calling him out in a rude or demeaning fashion, I think people just want a better explanation why 99% of the mets are coming in with much higher amounts. I wish he'd interact more with the bloggers. And it is called a blog for that very reason. People love weather, opinions, and love to express their own. No harm.

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    2. Actually news 13 just said 8 to 10 for most so not everyone is bumping their totals way up. Actually that only seems to happen here on this blog, with people wishing for crippling snow every week.

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  29. Scott is the afternoon/evening guy so he's still early in his workday. And with a storm on the horizon I very much doubt his first thought is to visit this blog. He'll probably have something to post later in the day, and I'm betting it will entail higher snowfall numbers. Every meteorologist tweaks their forecast at some point, nothing wrong with that.

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    1. So he'll wait to change his forecast till the storm is here you're saying? Why not wait till wednesday evening? Then you can be most accurate! Not like viewers need any warning or anything

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    2. Changes to a forecast can occur even while the storm is happening. Short range modeling can introduce new wrinkles that force changes, or the storm can behave a bit differently than it was expected to. Some of these things just can't be reliably predicted until the storm is somewhere on radar. The viewers have been sufficiently warned of a significant snowfall, and that's all that really matters. From a practical standpoint there isn't much difference between 5-9 inches and 8-12 inches. The impacts are generally the same.

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    3. Carol CCC ---

      Very very good point here. We are all excited about snow - finally. And yet we argue about an inch or two...

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    4. Completely agree with CCC(C?). I think Scott does a good job of updating us from time to time. But when we're most needy, like now, is when he has the least amount of time. He's busy with his day job. He's a rational guy. He will update us. Just not instantaneously.

      And for anyone looking to put their two cents in about how we're going to get. Click my name or

      http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652

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    5. CCC- Actually quite the opposite. I was not warned of a significant snowfall. To quote Scott's prior blog title "NEXT SNOWSTORM WILL BE DECENT, BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL". Now...where in the title does "significant" come into play??? I was only warned when W. Storm Warnings were issed by NWS. That made me say Hmmm???


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    6. The graphic to go along with that statement indicated that 6 inches or more looked likely. 6 inches is a significant snowfall. Words like "decent" and "exceptional" are subjective qualifiers.

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    7. LOL 6" is NOT a significant snowfall!

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    8. decent and exceptional are qualifiers are directed at a blog audience of snow nuts. Scott put that out several days ahead of the storm if I recall. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. You can't ask Scott to share what he's thinking and then hammer him for being too conservative.

      I completely agree that saying 6 inches alerts the public that this is a "real" storm.

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    9. But according to Every name that Starts with C (brought to u by the letter C),12-18" is NOT significant nor exceptional..........

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  30. KW has the upper end of 6-10; Thirteen has 6-10.

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  31. NOAA is showing 5-9 for my area - very north Livingston County.

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  32. Weather channel has 12-18. Thats what im going with! At least they stay on top of it and arent asleep at the wheel

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  33. This is going to be a big one. The ISUX model has the storm coming up the Ohio Valley and exploding over Macho Grande.

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  34. I'm sticking with 12-18" with another 12-24" this weekend. How will we deal with near 36 inches of snow?! Good lord, but I can't wait!! Parking bans already being issued everywhere. Be smart, don't get a ticket!

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  35. Hello All, Yes, this is John. I believe snowfall totals will be on the higher end of the totals we spoke about last night & today, with the newest data having the storm center a little further north, which will put us in the heavier snow, where the best lift is for a longer period. Heaviest snows will fall from about 3am through about 10am, which means the morning commute is going to be an ugly one to say the least with snowfall rates possible over an inch an hour at that time. Hang tight, & enjoy this significant storm on the the way bloggers! We are due for one! Maybe another tail end of the weekend into the start of next week...Stay tuned.

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  36. Scott will have the latest coming up @ 4, 5, 6 & 11...

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  37. Is anyone else concerned about the wind for Wednesday saying wind gusts of 25-35 mph with all the snow expected -- it will be difficult road/travel conductions. Still not seeing any of the local stations changing their numbers from earlier. Seems like they don't take into account that we all have to plan for the morning commute and shoveling. Would agreed that it is a wide viewing audience, but they need to focus on the truly local area. I know bloggers on this blog like to discuss whether we are going to be the Lucky Ones" to have the blizzard or massive snow amounts, but we need to also be realistic and think about what it means for those who have to work, travel, and don't have the benefit of taking a day off.

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  38. Ladies and Gentlemen.............Flip.................Flop.

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    Replies
    1. Hey Anonymous pot stirrer, how is this a flip-flop? They gave a range and now say high end of the range which all channels have done...storm is trending higher, it is what it is. If they give a range and came out short you'd b yelling BUST...just can't please some people that just love to bitch.

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    2. Not talking about range. Talking about significance. Scott said NBD on this one. Now its become a monster. He was wrong, NBD. Classic flip flop. NWS was all over this baby from day one!

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    3. I disagree, you are either misinterpreting or misrepresenting what Scott said, or worse...BOTH. He said exactly, NEXT SNOW STORM WILL BE DECENT BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL, not expecting over a foot. NWS initially didn't even raise warnings thinking it would be NBD either...what is your definition of a "Monster". To me that would be over 18 inches, I don't see this being a monster but continue to bang that drum...your attempt to make Scott look bad simply makes you look, well silly.

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    4. All over this from day one? This is what they were saying about it just 2 days ago:

      "...WITH ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY."

      Scott said it would be "decent but not exceptional." and included a graphic indicating that 6 inches or more was likely. This has become a 7-14 inch type storm, hardly a "monster." Scott was still in the ballpark with his original call.

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    5. No one is trying to make scott look bad lol. A monster is in the range of 12-18 inches, which is exactly what the NWS is forecasting! 12-18 is certainly exceptional to me!!!

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    6. "A monster is in the range of 12-18 inches, which is exactly what the NWS is forecasting!"

      Nope:

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml
      http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ003&warncounty=NYC055&firewxzone=NYZ003&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning#.UvE1HbTwCSo

      "12-18 is certainly exceptional to me!!!"

      You must be from downstate...

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    7. How is a foot and a half of snow not exceptional?! Your definition of significant was 6" or more. But 12-18" isnt? You have the IQ of frozen yogurt!

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    8. I said 12-18 wasn't "exceptional." It is certainly still "significant" since it lies above 6 inches. I thought that would be obvious enough to see, but I guess it wasn't.

      Frozen yogurt must be pretty durned smart.

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    9. durned?? good lord...go hang out with the Count on sesame street, he might make you smarter...Or better yet, add the Count to your goofy deranged name!!

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    10. You must be trollin' son. Trollin' on back to Trollville with a few stops at the bait shop. This conversation is now over. Thanks for the name suggestion by the way.

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    11. Thank god...No one likes you or your inaccurate weather input.

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  39. Thanks for the update John.

    Updated Warning text now says 7-13 inches in total. This one has "overachiever" stamped in big bold letters across its forehead, hopefully in permanent ink.

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    Replies
    1. Wonder if Scott will admit he was WRONG on this one..

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    2. Scott's forecast was never all that different from the others. 5-9 inches compared to 6-10 for the other two stations. The difference is one measly inch. Besides, the storm has yet to even happen so that "overachiever" label could easily wash away.

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    3. 12-18 is whats forecasted, like Snowdog said. way off with 5-9.

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    4. That's from The Weather Channel, whose business nowadays is ridiculous hype. Go to their local forecast for Rochester and you'll see it's more like 7-12, which is more in line with every other forecast and only a few inches higher than Scott's original forecast. This looks like an overachiever right now for sure, but not on the order of 12-18 inches.

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    5. Street parking bans are being issued! 12-18 is a comin. I also was in Tops this morning, who is now sold out of bread and water, and almost milk as well!

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    6. Sounds like people who have never experienced a snowstorm before...

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    7. Where did you get the information about parking bans being issued. For folks who live within the City and park on the street -- where can they get this information.

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    8. I would say City Hall. This is getting crazy all of a sudden.

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    9. Just checked their website -- nothing posted on it or facebook. Also nothing on radio or news websites about this.

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  40. Scott is the most accurate because he looks at real-time data and trends and adjusts accordingly. All the other mets around our area either read the NWS discussion or pick the most extreme model. There is no time limit on when Scott has to pick and/or adjust a snowfall range. So seriously, back off the News 8 team and just be thankful they run such a great blog and that we are even having this discussion!

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  41. Make sure to move your cars off the street everyone!

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  42. Someone is impersanating me. Snowdog. I have not posted since this AM. Whoever is doing that please stop. This is the real Snowdog. That is uncool whoever is doing that.

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  43. What about lake enhancement. The NWS states that the Hills will have more snow. I think the lake shore communities will see the most. This is the real Snowdog. I would never say anything negative about the News 8 team.

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    Replies
    1. How much more do you think the lake shore communities will get? Will help to plan for the morning.

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    2. generally 3-4" more I believe at minimum

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  44. Please stop using my name whoever you are. 2:16 was me, 2:18 was not!

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  45. Some are saying the morning commute could take 4-6 hours. So if you have to be to work by 8am, you better plan to leave around 3-4am.

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    Replies
    1. I'd leave now! Thank god I am off tomorrow. Prolly wouldn't even find my car

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    2. Well Snowdog (or one of them) claims 12-18 inches, so if that holds true then yea probably take 4 hours or more!

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    3. So you are saying 12-18 inches we will get overnight? I've not seen anything about this. Need information to plan!

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  46. Pittsford Wegmans ran out of caviar.

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    Replies
    1. I've got a fever.
      And the only cure is
      More Snow!

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  47. Replies
    1. Please get back on them, for the sanity of all of us. Then you can return!

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    2. CCCC I honestly think you are one of the smarter, more informed experts on here believe it or not...

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    3. Lol thanks but I am by no means an expert. I am pretty crazy though.

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    4. Sorry for the ill-advised war of words earlier!

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  48. Anyone know if schools have closed yet for tomorrow?

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    Replies
    1. I heard Bloomfield and HFL have. Could be mistaken though

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  49. WE WANT SNOW!! WE WANT SNOW!! WE WANT SNOW!!

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  50. The sun is out here in Henrietta, but I'm sticking with my 2-3 ft prediction.

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    Replies
    1. 12-18" son. 3 ft. doesn't come till the weekend! Patience my boy!

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    2. Im still favoring the IDK Model which will make this a pro-longed event.

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  51. Now the troll is talking to himself...oh boy ._.

    I'll be ducking out of here for a few hours. Cheers m8eez.

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  52. Scott just posted on Facebook...up to a foot of snow in the city...15 inches or so in the finger lakes and southern tier.

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  53. The blog is great for weather info until all of the children get on and post stupid crap. Everyone needs to chill out and let the pros do the forecast.

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  54. I do not think we will see that much. The radar is breaking up to the South. There is no way the South tier is getting over a ft. I think the sotrm went more North than predicted.

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