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Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Sunday, November 16

EARLY SEASON LAKE EFFECT WILL HIT HARD

Written By:  Scott Hetsko

As of 22Z this evening, warm advection precipitation was breaking out over Southern Ontario and Ohio in response to Southerly winds aloft.  I expect Western New York to get a period of light to moderate snowfall later evening into the early morning hours of Monday.  Most will wake up to 1-3" of wet, slushy snow with possible slick road conditions.



Following the passage of a cold front, temperatures will plummet late Monday night and Tuesday.  A strong response is expected off both Lake Erie and Ontario.  Our focus is Erie since our wind will be coming from the WSW.  Below is my forecast for snow fall by Tuesday night.


When looking at these forecast numbers, the higher number is for the furthest WEST of that particular color.  For example, while Penfield may get 2-3" of snow while Churchville can expect 5" or more depending on how long the band stays over that area.  Lake snow is LOCAL snow!  Be safe and remember to check in with News 8 often for updates.  Don't forget our Winter special will air LIVE at 5:30 this Thursday.


Saturday, November 15

Accumulating snow for many next week

The weather pattern will be turning very active across western New York next week with many areas seeing their first accumulating snow of the season. Along with the snow, frigid air will arrive and stick around for several days.

The first storm system will develop over the southeast tomorrow and then race northeast and center itself near Long Island on Monday. This will not be a particularly strong area of low pressure but it will have plenty of moisture and cold air at the surface to work with. As a result, widespread light snow will overspread much of the region early Monday morning and then continue through Monday evening.



It's still a bit too early to give exact snowfall amounts but in general, 2-4" looks like a good possibility for much of our area by the time this system moves out of the region Monday night.

Behind this initial area of low pressure, a reinforcing shot of cold air will move in from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday bringing us the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs by the middle part of next week will struggle to climb above the mid 20s. Gusty winds will drop wind chill values into the single digits and teens.


During this time, all the ingredients will be coming together for a significant lake effect snow event. A favorable west or southwest wind direction will combine with the frigid temperatures and plenty of atmospheric moisture to produce some very impressive lake effect bands. Right now, it looks like areas east and northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario will see the heaviest snow with those favored snow belts measuring the snow in feet!



For Rochester, we'll escape much of this heavy snow with just scattered snow showers, gusty winds, and cold temperatures expected for the city.

Stay with the News 8 Weather team for more updates in the coming days.

Written By: Matt Jones

Friday, November 7

A Blast of Cold Air Headed for Western New York

Sure we've had some chilly weather recently but all in all, the fall weather pattern across western New York has been relatively tranquil so far with no major storm systems and relatively mild temperatures.

Old Man Winter will return in full force over the next week as the large scale weather pattern undergoes some big changes across the country. The jet stream will take a big dip to the south and allow an early season blast of bitterly cold air to plunge into the Lower 48.


High temperatures next week will struggle to climb into the single digits and teens across the northern plains along with bitterly cold wind chills.

For us in western New York, we'll be on the eastern fringe of the coldest air but our temperatures will also drop significantly by the second half of next week.

The various forecast models and data that we use to help make the forecast all point toward this change to wintry weather.

Here's what the GFS (Global Forecast System) model is showing by Thursday of next week:

Notice most of the Northeast struggling to climb above freezing during the afternoon.

The airmass arriving next week will be much colder but also relatively dry and because of that, only scattered Lake Effect snow showers can be expected.

We're still several days out from this change in the weather so plenty can change between now and then. Keep checking back with us for more updates.

Written By: Matt Jones

Monday, October 13

Lake Effect Snow Storm "Aphid" 8 Years Ago

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Do you remember this? Eight years ago today western New Yorkers, the Buffalo area specifically, were cleaning up from more than 2 feet of heavy, wet snow from an extremely rare lake effect snowstorm. Many trees still had most of their leaves on them. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people lost power for as long as 10 days as a result. Brockport received about 3" of the heavy, wet snow. I remember because I was sitting in class that Thursday night that it began, and watched it developing and talking about it. Exciting! On the contrary, our weather today and tomorrow will feel much more like summer, with temperatures ranging between 10-20° above average, with some on Tuesday pushing 80°. Take in all that Mother Nature is capable of, and enjoy some Indian Summer weather instead of a snowstorm!

Monday, September 22

Arrival of Fall = Leaf Peeping Time!

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Say "see ya" to summer! Fall arrives at 10:29 Monday night. As such, it's time to bring back the fall foliage map. While we are just starting to see some shades of yellow and orange in a few trees locally, the best area to see some good fall colors is east of Rochester and into the Adirondacks. Cool nights, and lots of sunshine this week should help the colors pop out a bit more. Perhaps a trip to Letchworth is in the plans for the upcoming weekend? Regardless, enjoy the fabulous weather this week!

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