It's already been a very wet month in Rochester with nearly double the amount of rain that we normally see and it looks like we'll be adding a lot more to the bucket over the weekend.
An unseasonably strong area of low pressure currently developing across the Ohio Valley will slowly make its way into western New York Saturday with rain overspreading the region. By afternoon, the rain will become heavy at times and a gusty east wind will develop making it a day to stay inside.
Confidence in seeing significant rain is high since almost all of the major forecast models are in agreement.
The GFS model is showing a general 1-2" of rain for most of the region with locally over 3", especially across the Southern Tier.
Another very reliable model, the ECMWF is painting a similar picture with widespread 1-2" amounts and locally over 3".