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Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Thursday, November 26

2015-2016 Winter Outlook

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Hello! Yes, we are still here. And yes, this blog is still up and running. Matt and I have had a bit more on our plate with Scott being out. BUT - his plan is to be back in the new year! Yay! In the meantime, if you missed Winter Ready 2015, here is a link to it: Winter Ready 2015 (scroll down to the bottom to watch each segment).

In a nutshell, here is what we are thinking for the long range winter: with the strong El Nino in play, we are thinking we will have a somewhat mild winter. Milder than last winter (but that shouldn't be hard to do!), with lots of ups and downs in the temperature department. You can already see this setting up the past few weeks with these surges of very mild air and wind, followed by plunging temperatures. Overall, we are thinking a dryer winter is in store for us in WNY. BUT what we will have to watch out for is the potential for some coastal storms bringing us some good synoptic snow.

NAO: We do think the North Atlantic Oscillation will come into play for us, but it's much harder to predict this far in advance, as opposed to El Nino, where forecasters are able to use this much further out in the future. We are thinking it will help to bring down a few bouts of the typically bitter cold air. Overall snow forecast: 70-90." Matt, Scott and myself put our  heads together and this is what we came up with. We'll see how it actually plays out!

Monday, October 12

October Snowstorm of 2006

While we are basking in sun and what could be out last real taste of summer-like warmth this season, we look back 9 years ago. Lake effect storm "aphid" was hitting western New York, specifically the buffalo area with heavy, wet snow. The rare storm hit so early in the fall season that many leaves still had most, if not all of their leaves. Hundreds of thousands of people lost power for days. 

Here in Rochester, most of us just saw some flurries and flakes. Here was the end result: 

And the write up from the National Weather Service:

Wednesday, September 30


We've certainly seen our fair share of rain over the past 24 hours thanks to a slow moving front and a deepening area of low pressure moving in from the southwest but there could be plenty more ahead by the weekend.

Joaquin has now strengthened into a hurricane and is expected to become a strong category 2 or even a major hurricane over the next few days as atmospheric conditions become increasingly favorable. Then the million dollar question: Where does it track this weekend and early next week?

Models have been all over the place when it comes to the forecast track and there is a ton of uncertainty in our weekend forecast for western New York. If the storm tracks northwest and into the New England coast, we could see an extended period of heavy rain and gusty winds as far west as western New York. Models this morning however, show the storm taking a sharp turn to the west and moving into the southern Mid-Atlantic late this weekend and early next week.

Here's what the latest GFS is showing:

Notice the center of the storm moves onshore along the North Carolina/Virginia border, significantly further south than just 24 hours ago. With a very strong ridge sitting just east of Nova Scotia, it appears more likely that this southern solution will verify.

Still plenty of time for things to change between now and the weekend so keep checking back with us!

Meteorologist Matt Jones 

Tuesday, September 15

'Tis the Season (Leaf Peeping Season)

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

No, not for Christmas. Not even for snow. We're now getting into leaf peeping season, for all you Fall lovers out there. The I Love NY website issues weekly Fall foliage updates, and this week's is just starting to show some leaves just beginning to change color in the Catskills, highest peaks in the Adirondacks, and the Tug Hill Plateau. According to Accuweather (no, I'm not a leaf expert), the perfect autumn weather conditions for brilliant Fall colors is warm days, cool nights (without frost) and abundant sunshine. If this week's weather is any indication, colors will be vibrant this Fall! Time will tell...

Tuesday, August 25


It's not your imagination. We have seen our fair share of cool, wet weather this summer. The large scale pattern has featured a large ridge of high pressure across the Western and Central U.S. and a trough of low pressure over the Northeast for the past few months. This has led to a record setting wildfire season over the Pacific Northwest while our rainfall has been well above average.

Temperature-wise, we've only seen a handful of those hot, humid days. Since May, Rochester has officially recorded just three 90 degree days, compared to the average of nine. Last summer wasn't much different with just three days at or above 90.

Good news though for those wanting some more summer weather! Although we're dealing with the fall-like conditions this week, long range signals point toward another stretch of some very warm and humid weather by the end of August and continuing into the first part of September.

This is the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calling for well above average temperatures across the Northeast by the end of the month:

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

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