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Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Saturday, December 20

SANTABOMB...

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

#Santabomb. That's what it's being dubbed in the Social Media world. It'll be a strong storm, no doubt. But for snow lovers (us channel 8 mets included), this won't be "the one." It's looking more and more like it'll be a wind event for us, with *some* snow through Christmas. A lot of mild air is being drawn in ahead of the storm, and much colder air drawn in behind. The problem, as has been the case for the last few days, is the biggest slug of moisture is with the warm air. The dominant low will be the Great Lakes low, keeping us too warm for big snow. This shouldn't be a huge surprise, as signs have been pointing toward this, and many of us have been "chatting" (aka complaining) about it. I would still say we will see some snow on Christmas day, but not as much as many have been hoping for. Not giving up or throwing in the towel, just being real! I have to say this - still 4-5 days away...some time for change? Maybe? One can hope, right?

Tuesday, December 16

A NOR'EASTER GIFT WRAPPED FOR CHRISTMAS?


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

As our snow continues to melt, we will turn our attention to a significant pattern shift that will occur next week.  The West coast, which has seen a parade of storms recently, will see upper level ridging occur early next week.  This will help dig an upper level trough over the Eastern third of the U.S. beginning Tuesday or Wednesday.  At the surface, low pressure over the Great Lakes will likely transfer energy to a coastal storm sometime on Christmas Eve day.  This low has the potential to produce a significant Christmas Day snow fall in the Northeast.

Over the next 5 days, long range guidance will vary greatly so at this point it's only speculation.  Once we get to about 84 hours out (Sunday Night) we'll know much more about what type of storm we are dealing with for Christmas.

Hey it's fun to talk about in the mean time, personally I LOVE a Christmas storm.  The last significant one we had in Rochester was back in 2002 when 12.3" fell on Rochester!

Monday, December 15

AN EARLY LOOK AT CHRISTMAS WEEK.


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

This weekends storm is still in play but I'm growing more doubtful of its impact here on Sunday.  Could just be a squeaker moving quickly South of the area.  I do like our chances of a White Christmas though because of colder air along with a few quick moving systems delivering some lighter snows next week.

There may be a brief warm up early in the week before the cold arrives.  We'll watch!

Saturday, December 13

Unsettled But No Major Storm Systems Imminent

The major winter storm that dropped well over a foot of snow across much of the area last week continues to push away from the northeast and weaken leaving the area in a fairly quiet weather pattern.

As warm air continues to move in aloft from the southwest this weekend, this is creating an inversion across western New York, trapping a layer of cool, moist air at the surface. This is why we've been stuck in this gloomy weather pattern now for the past few days.

Early next week, a new area of low pressure will emerge from the Rockies and cross through the Great Plains. As this next storm system approaches western New York, a southerly flow of mild air will overspread the region helping to scour out this pesky inversion that we have in place now.

As this milder air spreads north, so will the moisture and showers will quickly start to develop by Tuesday morning. As the front and low pressure system to the west approach Tuesday afternoon, this will cause more widespread rain to develop.



Once the cold front sweeps through on Wednesday, any rain showers will change to snow as colder air moves in once again. Right now, this does not look like a significant storm and as it looks right now, most places will just see passing snow showers midweek.


As we look down the road toward Christmas week, long range forecast models point toward a more active weather pattern developing which could mean colder air and more widespread snow. Stay tuned!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Thursday, December 11

WHAT DID YOU GET?


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Above are storm totals taken from NWS observers and reasonable reports from social media.  Highest tallies were observed in Eastern Monroe county and Wayne county.  Lighter numbers in the Genesee valley with many around 6" in Central and Southern Livingston county.

I see nothing on the horizon storm wise until around 5-6 days before Christmas with a storm out of the lower Mississippi valley.  Maybe that will be our white or wet Christmas.  Time will tell!

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