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Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Monday, February 8

Coldest Air of the Season Looms

After a relatively mild weekend, the large scale weather pattern will undergo some big changes across the country this week.

A large ridge of high pressure will build over the west while at the same time, a deep trough of low pressure will form over the Northeast. This will allow cold air that is currently building in northern Canada to spill south into our region by the second half of the week.

The first surge of Arctic air will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday with highs Thursday struggling to climb into the mid teens. This cold air combined with a northwest wind direction will help generate lake effect snow squalls along the south shore of Lake Ontario, including much of Monroe county. It's still much too soon to say how much snow we'll see but several inches of fluff will be possible.

The second surge of Arctic air will plunge south by the weekend bringing the coldest temperatures we've seen in about a year. Several reliable forecast models we use are showing some truly bitter air arriving.

The GFS model is showing highs not even climbing above zero by Saturday afternoon!

The ECMWF model shows highs barely climbing into the single digits.

Factor in the wind and wind chills will plummet 10 to 20 below zero at times. Bottom Line: this will probably be the coldest stretch of weather this winter and we'll likely see several inches of snow piling up from Wednesday through the weekend. 

Stay tuned for more updates!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Sunday, January 31

The Return (or, Arrival) of Winter

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

After the warmest and least snowy December on record in Rochester, January behaved a little more like January should. We slowly added nearly 2 feet of snow for the month (22.5" to be exact), and averaged a few degrees above average. The first 48-72 hours of February will be quite mild with likely record warmth on Wednesday as a deep storm system tracks once again off to our west. This will be the trigger to a more winter-like pattern heading into early February.

After Wednesday, temperatures will crash to more seasonable levels (lower to mid 30s) for the rest of this week and into the weekend, while it's looking more likely that a mid-late winter cold snap will return into the middle of February.
At this point, we don't see any big snow events for us, so we will still be lacking that, but there are a few lows on the horizon that both long-range GFS and Euro are latching onto. So, hang onto your hats this week, and then hang onto your winter jackets, at least for a little while longer.

Friday, January 29

Familiar pattern returns

We've seen bouts of cold air and minor snow events the past several weeks but many snow lovers are still waiting for the big one.'re going to have be patient because there's not much wintry weather in sight.

We will see some local accumulation today with lake effect squalls but as we head into the weekend, a familiar pattern is going to develop across the country. A deep trough of low pressure will develop across the western half of the country and into the Midwest with a ridge of high pressure building over the Northeast.

Several areas of low pressure will develop over the Southern Plains and then lift northeast into the western Great Lakes, remaining well west of western New York. This places us in a very mild, breezy and occasionally wet weather pattern into the middle of next week. Any significant wintry weather will  impact the Rockies and western high plains.

By the middle of next week, temperatures could soar into the mid 50s, nearly 20-25 degrees above average for this time of year.

There are signs that some much colder air will arrive by the end of next week but even with that, still no real signal of any significant winter storm for western New York.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Tuesday, January 19

It's a Nor'easter! For Them, Not Us

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

We got some snow! Woohoo! No, really, it was nice to actually have to forecast some snow, and we are now bumped up to well over a foot on the season!

Sarcasm aside, there is a pretty significant storm on the way, and it's headed oh so close...but so far away from us. All signs are pointing to a high-impact event for the Mid-Atlantic. From DC, to Philly, possibly NYC and New England. Some will be measuring snow in feet (or 1'+). As it looks right now, we are just too far west. Go figure, all season long we've been on the warm side of storms, with everything developing and hooking west. Now, the biggest storm of the season, goes east.

Take a look at some of these totals from the latest Wednesday morning 0z NAM:
Still one to watch, at least for another day or so...

Saturday, January 16

Lake effect machine gets cranking again!

Remember what happened this past Tuesday with that brief period of whiteout conditions? We could see a repeat performance tomorrow afternoon as a strong Arctic front quickly sweeps east through the region. A period of moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds will accompany the front with a quick 1-2" of snow during that time.

Here's a look at snowfall accumulations through tomorrow evening (more snow will fall after this):

As colder air pours southeast tomorrow night and Monday, the lake effect machine will get cranking again. Once it starts, it looks like it will keep going right through the middle of the week with some folks measuring the white stuff in feet once again. Like the last lake effect event we saw, locations closer to the Lakeshore and into Wayne county will pick up the heaviest accumulations with these amounts quickly tapering off as you head south.

The one difference this time around is that the wind will have a slightly more northwest component and this could push the more significant snow bands further south into the city of Rochester. Still too soon to say if this will actually happen but there is a chance. There's much higher confidence that locations along and north of route 104 in Monroe county will see several inches piling up.

Lake Effect Snow Watches have already been posted for Monroe and Wayne counties for early next week:

Stay tuned for more updates!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

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