Here We Go Again
El Nino sure wants to keep us WNY mets busy! No, we don't have another "snowstorm," per say, but we do have our 3rd significant synoptic storm in as many weeks in the next 36-48 hours.
Our first storm dumped record snow on us. Last week's dumped record rain on us. This one looks to have both rain and snow, along with a wintry mix.
Of course, it all comes down to the precise track, but at this point, it looks like some warm front light snow will lift through western New York Tuesday midday/afternoon with little, if any accumulation. This is where things get interesting. Some sleet and freezing rain is likely to mix in with rain and snow overnight Tuesday, before changing over to all snow early Wednesday morning. What this means for accumulations: Niagara Frontier (Route 104 west of Rochester) could see a decent snowfall. Rochester and the Genesee Valley could see some accumulating icy mix of sleet and freezing rain, with a few inches of snow on top of that. Finger Lakes could see more rain to begin with, then a little icy mix, followed by a little snow.
Bottom line, doesn't look like a major snow-maker for most of us, although areas closer to Buffalo could pick up a decent plowable snow. And Wednesday morning's commute is looking like another one where you'll want to leave yourself extra time and patience!
IDK, but I think they need to move the snow line further South.
ReplyDeleteKW has all snow....
DeleteListening to KW is like listening to a window maker calling for hail. He does things to strum up interest in himself.
DeleteHave to agree...
DeleteAt least other Mets admit that this one is difficult to predict...he always seems convinced one way or the other...which I find confusing.
DeleteHe uses the in-house KWM (Kevin Williams Model), which can be seen in action at this link:
Deletehttp://49.media.tumblr.com/b453fba99f66099bb7fa94ecb70a4cd8/tumblr_ncvydx15me1r3gb3zo1_400.gif
Looks like NBD as I have said before.
ReplyDeleteYou say that about literally everything.
DeleteGonna be a game time call....we wont know track until tomorrow morning....and these storms have been remarkably difficult to forecast...
ReplyDeleteWell. Say what u want but he was right on with the last storm and he never deviated from his original forecast about the storm while others changed theirs every hour. I think he will be right about this one to.
ReplyDeleteI believe the other mets changed a lot because that is what the models were doing. I do give him credit for being spot on in the last storm...but it could have gone either way...it just happened to go in his favor.
DeleteI think I may have found the anti-Kevin...Mike Cejka from WIVB, who yesterday forecasted a 6-12" Wednesday storm total in the Buffalo metro only to turn tail and forecast 2" just this morning. Two weeks ago he basically rode the RPM verbatim and predicted a rainstorm. The guy doesn't seem to do any actual forecasting, just peeks at the RPM and settles on whatever it shows. That to me is way worse than overzealously sticking firm to previous forecasts.
DeleteYeah....I don't think KW gave snow totals...so at least he has that going for him...
DeleteWho are you implying was correct: KW or Scott.
DeleteTwo things hurt us regarding snowfall:
ReplyDelete-The storm is a quick mover.
-The current consensus track would place the best banding/ratios just to our NW.
There's still enough going here to not outright dismiss this thing as a mere car topper though. Yes it's going to be another close call like a few weeks ago, with much less of a "boom" potential this time. If I had to make a call I would favor a high end advisory level snowfall at the moment, with low end warning amounts in the far NW corner of WNY (think N. Erie, Niagara, Orleans counties) and low end/sub advisory amounts in the Finger Lakes.
Friday still looking like a whiff, CCCC?
DeleteAs always, TY for your insights.
NP :)
DeleteFriday still looks like a whiff, maybe some light snow in the southern tier.
I hope it moves quick.....:)
ReplyDeleteOn a completely different topic...I recently had a bit of a funny realization that despite all of the moaning about how sucky this winter has been, we've actually been on a near average snowfall pace since New Years. Sure it's been mild for the most part, and yes I'm aware that a huge chunk of our snow in that span then came from one storm, but all things considered it really hasn't been all that bad for snow lovers since December tanked all the way to Hades. It's been the same exact story for our nearby Thruway brethren too. I bet our perceptions would be a lot different if we came out of the gate guns ablaze only to have the frozen old man lay a bag of warm farts after about MLK Day. We'd be saying things like "well we had a pretty good winter but things have calmed down and I'm ready for spring." For all we know that may indeed be the case next winter if the calls for a robust La Nina hold true...
ReplyDeleteLets just say if I am loving this winter, it was mild (so far, as I know we still have March and lets face it, April)...I completely understand if snow lovers are less than thrilled. And you are correct, it is not just ROC that has been affected. It is what it is...some winters are brutal and some are not...How do you think summer is going to be for us?
DeleteI was actually trying to assuage those who are still yanking their hair out over the supposed Great Dead Ratter of 2016. It's been more like a baby ratter, with the record snowless December skewing a lot of perceptions. Mentioning those others cities was just a way of showing that it's more than dumb luck that our snow numbers have been riding the line of average since then.
DeleteI'm not enough of a summer nut to have looked too deeply into this one...our impending ENSO flip to neutral/Nina plus a hodgepodge of model guidance argues for a warmer than average summer though.
This storm does not have a lot of moisture. There will not be much snow at all. The Euro was horrible.
ReplyDeleteIn what universe is this not a fair amount of liquid:
Deletehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022912/gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_9.png
GGEM ensemble is a bit less enthusiastic but still not meager:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016022912/gem-ens_apcpn24_eus_9.png
And this is what the Euro had for snowfall...high end advisory amounts:
http://i.imgur.com/YaaB9Ir.png
So this is coming tomorrow night and Wednesday? So CCCC do the models still matter tonight and tomorrow or do we just wait until it comes to figure out the track? News 8 seems pretty sure of more rain than the other weather people?
ReplyDeleteNews 10 has 4-6 inches for Rochester this is NBD.
ReplyDeleteAnon 2:32 -- we all know New 10 likes to bump up # and talk about the "significant, plowable snow", it is simply to get you to watch them.
Delete1) Models absolutely still matter tonight and tomorrow. Real-time OBS will also come into play once the storm system starts to develop.
ReplyDelete2) 4-6" centered right on top of the morning commute would still create some issues. Amounts don't matter nearly as much as timing/intensity/flake type.
There will be WWA issued at some point. Pretty disappointing since many thought this week there could be a significant storm between Weds-Friday.
ReplyDeleteCIPS analog thumbnails:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2016022912&map=thbCOOP72
Median snowfall:
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/2016022912/F048/EC_048/COOPmednam212F048.png
My guess is that the will put up WWA for Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will not be a warning snowfall. IF you look to the West they are all WWA.
ReplyDeleteThere's a blob of warnings just north of Chicago. Plus the modeled snowfall is far greater once you get east of Michigan. I do agree that we'll ultimately end up with a crop of advisories just due to the track being slightly farther north than what's ideal, although it wouldn't surprise me if we started off with a very tentative winter storm watch.
ReplyDeleteLet's play "spot the baroclinic zone"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.intellicast.com/National/Temperature/Current.aspx
Lets hope with the morning commute on Wednesday that City/County officials have their acts together, and deploy the snow plow operators much earlier in the morning than last time. They have the opportunity to redeem themselves. This is not meant to slam any of the Snow Plow Operators as I know you can't simply get in your vehicle and begin to plow without the directive of higher ups. Just hoping they have a plan together this time.
ReplyDeleteOf course let's also hope that if it's bad enough that people are smart enough to stay off the roads and don't need to be told by the government. Plows get around much more efficiently when they aren't held up by traffic and clowns sliding all over that shouldn't be on the road.
DeleteWatch issued for 5-10 inches. Includes Monroe, Orleans, Genesee and Wyoming counties.
ReplyDeleteThe commute issues won't be nearly as serious this time since we won't be pounding 2-3"/hr of soggy concrete.
ReplyDeleteWinter Weather Watches just went up -- 5-10 inches; with heavy snow falling overnight Tuesday, possibly 1" per hour. Sounds allot like two weeks ago.
ReplyDelete1"/hr doesn't hold a candle to 2-3"/hr. Much less impactful but still potentially tricky.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what the 18z GFS showed?
ReplyDeleteScott not impressed with this storm. You can tell he thinks this has way more bust possibility than bang.
ReplyDeletePretty sure that watch will change an advisory tomorrow. This storm is moisture starved and moving way to fast.
ReplyDelete0.50 to 0.75" of liquid equivalent is nowhere close to moisture starved. Moisture is not the problem, it's the track.
DeleteOmg. Same thing they said about the last storm and look what happend. I agree that the watches will change to advisories as well. This will be a nuisance system for most. Nothing we cannot handle. I also dont think this is winters last hooray. No way.
ReplyDeleteWasn't the last storm advertised as mainly rain from a day out?
DeleteSo what are the odds of a snow day for schools?
ReplyDeleteMy gut feeling. 10 percent. And only because of the timing. Definitely not a zero percent chance. But not a likely event either. imo.
DeleteSlim to noon and slim just left town. Unless you are NW of the city. Then you may have a shot. Even KW down playing this one.
DeleteI revise my prediction to 2 percent based on NWS discussion this morning:
Delete"Compared to what was seen during the day yesterday...the 00z
model guidance has universally trended notably further north"
The only reason they'd close at this point is if there was an unexpectedly severe icing.
My antennae is always up for ice this time of year.
Some delayed openings might happen. I can't see much if anything in the way of closings though especially since the snow should be ending pretty early in the day. Doesn't mean it won't be a hassle for commuters.
ReplyDeleteThere will NOT be a blizzard within The Flower City within the rest of this winter. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteLatest NAM has this way north of us and it is good in short range. I am not seeing where this is tracking through Pa. like Mets have said?
ReplyDeleteLiterally every other model.
DeleteCCCC you have to admit the NAM is further NW and that is not good. Think the GFS may head there too.
ReplyDeleteAnon you are right the NAM gives us no snow that is not good.
ReplyDeleteI don't see anything other than typical NAM bait. Occasionally it'll find some idiot savant brand of clarity, otherwise it tends to live on the NW edge of the guidance envelope for several runs before correcting SE. I'm not worried in the slightest unless most other guidance exhibits the same trend (not just the GFS).
ReplyDeleteOkay in CCCC we believe. I will trust you but NAM scares me being it is less than 24 hours out. I hope the others track a bit more south but keep NAMs strength.
ReplyDeleteSometimes the NAM sniffs out a more northerly track before the other models catch on. Most of the time it's on crack. I'm just playing the odds for now. Remember also that there were high res models only a day prior to our last storm a few weeks ago that had the jackpot west of Buffalo, while the NAM couldn't decide whether it wanted to give us a bunch of rain or a fringe job.
ReplyDeleteCCCC when you look at the current radar loop a few things stick out. It looks not that far away, looks not moisture laden and looks like track will be north above us. Just my observations but I am a rookie. Interested in what Oz GFS shows.
ReplyDeleteIt's still in its developing stages. Looks to me like the precip is lining up along and just south of our latitude, pretty close to what's been modeled for awhile.
DeleteCCCC is it also a lock that we will not get a storm Friday?
ReplyDeleteOdds are pretty slim for one.
DeleteGJ not impressed with this storm with 4 inches for most of Rochester.
ReplyDeleteGFS follows the NAM and is north good night this one is over for Rochester.
ReplyDelete24 hours to go. Nothing in stone. Always hate being near the mix line though since the dreaded NW trend is always a threat no matter what.
ReplyDeleteOn a side note, I'm aware of times that a winter storm watch was downgraded to a winter weather advisory, but has one ever been outright cancelled? Because if not and the NW trend continued unabated then that would be a hilarious way to end this winter.
Come on CCCC please be honest and not wish for a change. Like you said it is 24 hours away this track is set. It is over and you can just admit it.
ReplyDeleteScott just tweeted do not expect much from this storm more mix than snow. It is done and you could tell Mets were surprised the NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch earlier. Will go down to advisory just so they do not look silly.
ReplyDeleteWe don't need it to shift much to put us back in the snow area.
ReplyDeleteAgain respect what you say CCCC but Scott pretty confident that now 24 hours out and new data this will be a few inches at best for Rochester. Think I will side with him.
ReplyDeleteAll you have to do is look at the animated radar loop and can see it is going north. Plus I am sorry the system looks disorganized and weak. It does not have a lot of moisture.
ReplyDeleteEven KW has caved to the new data and said the new track will lead to a messy Wednesday commute. Should have known this is how it would play out. We got our perfect track and one storm. Can we just get to spring please.
ReplyDeleteIt's still in its infancy so of course it's going to look weak and disorganized. The radar loop doesn't say anything about what the track is going to be. It's not going north anyway, it's going in a general ENE direction.
ReplyDeleteIt is not in its infancy in fact it is moving quickly front end heading into Ohio already. It is a weak storm not sure what you are looking at CCCC?
DeleteThe stuff near Ohio is being caused by frontogenesis way out ahead of the surface low, which is still back across the Plains. It's weak now but it will strengthen.
DeleteJust a matter of time when we go to a WWA or just cancel the whole thing.
ReplyDeleteI just hope this thing doesn't turn into a significant icing situation. Give me all of the miserable 33 degree rain in the universe over that boolschidt.
ReplyDeleteNot one of our local Mets mentioned any chance of any icing let alone significant icing so would not worry about that. More sleet than freezing rain anyway.
ReplyDeleteAny time you have these cold highs you can end up with a sneaky icing situation. Probably a low chance of that outcome here though.
ReplyDeleteRain will be the best outcome at this point of winter anyways. The snow won't be around long it will melt quickly this weekend and beyond. It goes against every snow loving bone in my body to hope for rain during winter months, however my hatered for slushy mud is greater than my love for snow especially later in the season.
ReplyDeleteDowngraded to Winter Weather Advisory, with 1-3 inches of snow, but more on the side of sleet and freezing rain. Wednesday morning commute will still be challenging.
ReplyDeleteCCCC, guess you were not so right on this one.
Looks like Stacey nailed this and CCCC was flat out wrong!
ReplyDeleteCome on how about Anon last night having the conversation with CCCC? He/she was right on when CCCC was still holding out hope.
ReplyDeleteLove how these experts are saying CCCC was wrong before 8am this morning. The "storm" isn't even here yet. I guess the hacks are right, once these models form a consensus, they never change and are definitely set in stone.
ReplyDeleteIts 12 hours or so out...that's pretty set in stone...you blithering idiot!
DeleteI guess we should know better to argue with someone that calls himself "weather guy" and then resorts to name calling.....
DeleteCommon sense numbskull, when it's less than 12 hours out, models aren't going to be changing!
DeleteWeather Douche is right. EVERYONE knows that when you're 12 hours out, take the track, and precipitation amounts to the bank. They NEVER deviate.
DeleteI don't recall CCCC making any predictions...from what I saw, he was reading what the models were showing.
ReplyDeleteHe said 8-10 inches. That's quite a difference from the 1-3" following rain that Stacey has forecasted. We were also downgraded to a WWA. He was just flat out wrong with this one and should admit it.
DeleteAnon 839, then just go away and get your weather from professional meteorologists. Seems amateur speculation annoys you, and that is what this board is about. Bye bye!
DeleteSorry turd cutter but this board is NOT for amateur speculation. The topics are posted by....wait for it....PROFESSIONAL METEOROLOGISTS!
DeleteNope wrong again anon 926! This board IS for amateur weather discussion and speculation! The professionals post a topic and then amateurs discuss, speculate and learn. It is not the place to get your weather forecast! Are you really that dumb? Apparently yes you are.
DeleteNow go away azz hat!
Chances you whispered "azz hat" and looked around when you typed it?
DeleteLMAO! best post of the entire winter anon 10:25
DeleteThis is a good learning experience for CCCC. He needs to pull his head out of the clouds and realize there are trained educated professionals who do these forecasts. He is not a meteorologist, no matter what any of his followers and/or groupies think. I know he has a passion for weather, which I applaud, but he is by no means a meteorological expert. Kudos to Stacey for calling this one perfectly!
ReplyDeleteGreat job by Stacey! Give that woman a raise!
DeleteI can't believe the only reason some come on this post is to nail. CCCC on a prediction. What's wrong with you people. Get a life. Even the mets are wrong at times. This not a perfect business.
ReplyDeleteLOL @ CCCC's groupies running to defend him
DeleteSeriously ?
DeleteThen KW was wrong as well.....because he was talking this storm up-last I heard, he was a 'professional'...bottom line...I have a newfound respect for how difficult it can be to predict weather around here...the models change so much.
ReplyDeleteI like CCCC's perspective. If he was not here...then it would be awful. And I am not some groupie...LOL
ReplyDeleteDJD I know you're not a groupie. But he seriously has some rats that follow him around like the Pied Piper of Hamlin! I however appreciate his perspective also, but he never can admit when he's wrong.. The rats praise him no matter what..
DeleteWe may not get anything because this is so far north what a joke. The NWS has us in a WSW for 5-10 inches at 4:00 yesterday and know nothing.
ReplyDeleteI see the extend is showing temps towards 50, is Winter (or what we had of it) just about over?
ReplyDeleteYes winter is done and we may be in the 60s next week. Awesome!
ReplyDeleteCCCC got OWNED!!!! And on top of that, temps showing in mid 60's next week! What a great start to my Tuesday!
ReplyDeleteYou must really have quite the exciting life if getting your jollies from a CCCC failed prediction gives you the chills
DeleteHahahah, a schmuck that calls himself WEATHER GUY calling someone else an idiot......
ReplyDeleteWhen they're less educated about the weather, yes "blithering idiot" is appropriate..
Delete:-) Maybe some of us are trying to learn though.
DeleteThen get a meteorology degree for fun like I did.
DeleteThis board is like a powder keg today. Good lord, all because of CCCC's FAILED prediction?
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing CCCC won't be showing his face here today
DeleteWe all knew this was a track-based forecast and would continue to change right up until the 11th hour. GJ said so last night - he predicted 5-9 inches and then said, "but this is bound to change and we'll have to fine tune the amounts, so check back." And that's what happened. Only Scott has been firm from the beginning that this was a mostly mix storm.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I heard a JN radio forecast this morning at 8:30 that still called for 4-6 inches. So as usual, KW and his staff are the last to give in. :)
Again, they do that to keep you coming back to watch their weather segments.
DeleteIf you truly read CCCC's blog posts, most are of him/her cutting and pasting from other weather sites as if they are his own opinion, and then when you disagreed you get one of his you tube video posts to the site.
ReplyDeleteI have some thoughts...
ReplyDelete1. This board has officially gone crazy - I blame the lack of winter storms for why everyone is so edgy
2. Yes, CCCC was wrong, he probably knows this, big deal, life goes on, he's a valuable resource here
3. Hilight of this board so far this winter: Spreadsheet Guy talking over and over again about the Polar Plunge and getting roasted for it
4. Weather Guy is a riot and should be the new board expert here
#3 LMFAO!
DeleteAre we getting anything tonight and tomorrow morning from this storm?
ReplyDeleteThis storm is tracing way north of us now. Not sure we get much of anything?
ReplyDeleteWow. All I did was say To stop criticizing CCCC making predictions that a lot of you ask for anyway and then you turn around and rip him. You then rip KW for being wrong when every forecast he said the snow numbers were not etched in stone. He didn't guarantee anything. You guys hold people's feet to the fire for predictions that nobody can be sure of. The mets CCCC and a few others get this but it's obvious some are just ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteTotally agree. CCCC has never claimed to anything more than an amateur enthusiast, and people do come here looking for his insights.
DeleteForecasting nature is really, really difficult. Even the professionals bust a forecast from time to time.
We haven't had a ton of snow save for one storm, but at least we've had a series of really intriguing synoptic events to track, even if they didn't all turn out our way.
I blame cabin fever for all the bad behavior. It's that time of year when the snow enthusiasts are frustrated with the lack of snow, and the warm weather enthusiasts are frustrated because spring is still far off. No one likes cold and muddy. So here we are. Let's be nice to each other, at least. Good natured ribbing is great, but the mean spirited stuff has no place here. But. it's a reality of online life today. Trolls gotta troll.
I think the closest I came to making a prediction was saying that we would get a high end advisory snowfall, which was how things looked for a time early yesterday. That was one post with an implied hypothetical disclaimer tacked to it. Never threw any exact numbers out there, so I don't understand where this morning's sad attempt at a "gotcha" moment is coming from. And even if I did throw actual numbers out there...well, who gives a schite anyway? I could've predicted an epic megablizzard with snow by the yardstick and it wouldn't mean diddly to anyone who doesn't rely on some four-name bum in a blog's comment section for their weather info.
ReplyDeleteYeah who cares CCCC we lie your information. So are we getting anything tonight?
ReplyDeleteA little rain until early predawn, then a little snow.
DeleteCCCC said "We will certainly get at least 8 inches in this storm Tuesday night"..Mark it down! Brought to you by Madden 16.
DeletePic or it didn't happen.
Deletehttp://alloveralbany.com/images/NWS_probabilistic_snowfall_map_2015-02-01.png
DeleteMark it down! Brought to you by Madden 16
>Issued: 1935Z Sun Feb 01, 2015
DeleteGotta love those 395 day outlooks. Also the Madden series is trash.
Friday's deal suddenly looks like it could produce a minor accumulation for us after I said it looked like a whiff...how super embarrassing for me, I should probably hide my head in shame forever :P
ReplyDeleteFriday morning? or during the day? just wondering as far as the morning commute.
DeleteI'm honestly not even thinking about the timing yet.
DeleteBasically in 24 hours we've seen the model guidance shift the max snow totals NW by about 100 miles...with less than 36 hours to go until game time. That's a very poor job by the models in handling this storm. With such little reliability so close to the event it isn't far fetched to think that a major surprise or two is in store for someone along/NW of the 401.
ReplyDeleteToo bad this storm did not move south some because looks like a nice swath on the radar.
ReplyDeleteChannel 8 has AM Snow South for Friday; whatever that mean.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to Scott, Stacey, and Matt for being named the most accurate local forecast again, 7 years running.
ReplyDeletehttp://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/science/bender-applause_medium.gif
ReplyDeleteSkyway closure and a 20 car pileup in the Buffalo area due to freezing rain. That's heading slowly eastward, although it looks like we won't get quite as much ice accretion as places to our west.
ReplyDeleteWow. What a superdud that system was. Par for this pathetic winter.
ReplyDeleteDon't think it was a super dud for those in the Buffalo area who were stuck on the skyway or in the 20-car pile-up. Show some compassion.
DeleteDrive carefully this morning; though the roads are not bad -- there are a few slick/icy spots. Plus loved the icing on my car.
ReplyDeleteUGH no snow at all...More lies from CCCC...
ReplyDeleteYou need help dude.
DeleteI wonder if he sees flashes of my profile pic in his nightmares XD
DeleteHow could he - it changes every day!
DeleteLol I think I've changed it like once this entire winter.
DeleteI must say though that if Aikuro Mikisugi showed up in my dreams with his beautiful glowing nipples then I wouldn't be too upset.
Oh the humanity....
ReplyDeleteFolks there is nothing on the models except warm weather next week. Finally we are moving to spring after this horrible winter. I say hooray for that!
ReplyDeleteSince this was going to be a mix bag of mess I'm glad it was a dud!
ReplyDeleteDon't be fooled by the warm up next week. I'm sure mother nature will belch another crap sandwich or two between now and May.
Absolute horrible winter for us that love the snow. Only upside is we had a long pleasant fall and one record breaking snow storm.
I agree....who wants sleet and freezing rain-just awful to drive in. I was happy it melted by the time I had to drive into work.
DeleteHey it still was a Winter Weather Watch and then Advisory -- that counts for something.
DeleteFelt like a mini-ice storm this morning with the amount of ice on my car.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the NAM is hinting a strong East Coast storm around next Friday.
ReplyDelete10 days out? I like you Weather Guy but temps are forecast very warm for that period so it would be rain. Rather a big nothing to rain.
DeleteNice job fake Weather Guy but the NAM only goes 84 hours out, so good one. Next time you want to troll at least have a clue about weather models because you look stupid.
DeleteAnon 10:42 - good catch. Ah poor Weather Guy, you have nothing better to do, and you were busted.
DeleteWeather Guy what is it about the term "East Coast" storm that you did not understand. Unless something has changed, we are located in Western NY or Update NY, not along the East Coast. Perhaps you need to look at a map first.
DeleteWeather Guy that post was so lame and you were busted by Anon 10:42. Maybe next time have a clue and may be use the GFS or Euro. Just something valid if you want to be a legit funny guy which you are not.
ReplyDeleteEven if the NAM did go out to 10 days, why on earth would we listen to it? It sucks even inside 2 days, with one recent unfortunate exception. Like Bernie Rayno once said, it's a lot like your crazy uncle...most of the time it's just sitting there babbling incoherently, but once in awhile it has a moment of idiot savant style clarity.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely looks and feels like winter out there today. There actually is a coastal storm on the models for Friday and Saturday, but all it manages to do is brush I-95.
For someone who LOVES winter, why are going complaining about how cold it feels outside.
DeleteWho's complaining?
DeleteWho's complaining? Has to be the crazy uncle...because it makes no sense :)
DeleteGood to see that the County has taken time to review their Winter Storm/Weather Plan and made some changes.
ReplyDeleteTheir new plan worked great this time...don't get 18 inches of snow...
Delete^ lol
DeleteNWS Binghamton recorded their least snowy and second warmest winter (20") ever.
ReplyDeleteAnd Albany had their warmest and least snowy winter ever. Winter lovers from NE PA up through northern New England got shafted a lot worse than us.
ReplyDeleteBut wait! Snowdog says we're the ones that always get screwed.
DeleteIndian Lake in the Adirondacks reports their meteorological winter (D-J-F) resulted in only 38" of snow and was the 4th warmest in 100 years. Aye, aye, aye...
ReplyDeleteWell after tomorrow we are finally into our spring season early and I for one am absolutely happy. This winter has been horrific and if we did not get the one lucky track storm we would have set a record for the least snow in a year as I predicted. The long range models show huge warn-up for the next 10 days and not one hint at a winter storm. This takes us to mid March which means goodbye winter! Get out your sun tan lotion.
ReplyDeleteLol... Wait till it snows in April and God forbid May. You obviously haven't lived here that long if you think winter is done because we get a week of 50s and 60s in March.
DeleteAnon 7:51 - keep in mind that it has snow in April before, matter of a fact a couple of years ago it snow towards the end of April. If you don't believe it; look it up. So it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we might be snow in April. A winter storm or blizzard, probably not; but snow? It could happen.
DeleteHey we had a 10" snow storm in May 1989.
DeleteLol sun tan lotion in mid March, gimme a break. Even if we manage a day or two of sunshine in the obligatory sea of overcast there's no way you're gonna tan with an early spring sun angle.
DeleteCCCC what do you predict for the rest of the winter? Do you see another storm in the future or have you given up too?
DeleteNot for at least another week. I'm mostly in "play it by ear" mode at this point so I haven't looked very far out in time, but if you're hoping for snow before next weekend then you're gonna have a bad time.
DeleteI am willing to wager with this winter we are done. So again you point out the past and what has happened the fact is this winter shows snow is not at a premium.
ReplyDeletewhat a ridiculous comment. . Just because we've had very little snow this winter it guarantees nothing for the future.
DeleteMarch 2012 had nearly a full week in the 70s with one day in the 80s, then it snowed at the end of the month and again in late April. I'm willing to move on from this winter, but no early spring warmup of any magnitude will convince me that we're done with snow.
ReplyDeleteExactly! Which is why anyone that's been around here long enough is not foolish enough to proclaim winter is done in March or April, regardless of how warm it is now.
DeleteI now hope it's done, but wouldn't count on it.
Chris where did you get that data for Indian lake? I'd love to see the historical numbers
ReplyDeleteThanks
I'd love to see you SHUT UP!!!
DeleteAnon 7:18, that is uncalled for! It was a legitimate question and the answer is likely of interest to weather enthusiasts.
DeleteCheck Ilsnow.com.
DeleteI know people say you can never say winter is over in March in Rochester but the 10-14 day long range shows warm temperatures. The only storms possible are rain so I am declaring the winter is over here and I say that is great.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't matter what the 2 or even three week outlook is. It snows in April and even May, even after lame winters like this one.
DeleteThose that don't learn from history are bound to repeat their errors.
Sorry but Anon declared winter to be over, thereby cancelling any snowfalls that would've otherwise occurred in the distant future :P
DeleteWhat I am saying is winter is over in the sense that we will NOT get another storm. Not saying we may not say a few wet flakes so lets make sure of what I am meaning.
ReplyDeleteIf you are declaring winter is over let's leave no room for discrepancy. You stated a few wet flakes. This means if we get even an inch you would be wrong. Right?
DeleteSince 1940, in lame winters just like this one, our median April snowfall is an inch above the April median snowfall for all years since 1940.
DeleteThe chances of a significant storm are fairly diminished by Mid-March, so given the temps I'd say chances of a significant winter storm are just about done. But odds are very strong that we will have more that just a "few wet flakes" before it's done.
As a snow lover I've about had it with snow by mid-March which is why I dislike spring so much around here. But you never know what mother nature has in mind.
Fun fact: April was the second snowiest month of the very mild and super lame super Nino winter of 1982-83.
ReplyDeleteInteresting fact, not a fun fact... Not even for a snow lover like me :)
DeleteWow looking at the latest long range data. I am going to declare winter OVER for sure. A warm warm month of March.
ReplyDeleteEastern ridge signal fades in the ensemble means around and after the 20th. We'll have some rather toasty periods in the meantime...unfortunately things also look pretty unsettled through at least next weekend.
ReplyDeleteHence no more storms/snow and winter is over. Hip hip hooray!
ReplyDeleteHence we're probably going to drop back towards seasonable in the extended range, which given the average lows by then means it can still snow at night. Surely we know better than to put the snow brushes away for good so soon...right?
ReplyDeleteNope snow brushes are away and all snow ear is out away. This winter is in the history books for what is was sucky.
DeleteLol babby's first WNY spring. Have a look at some local climo:
Deletehttp://www.weather.gov/buf/RochesterSnow
I'd love to put my snow brush back in the closet until November. There's almost always one last "f you" from old man winter to spoil that desire though.
Again CCCC you can give all your stats about history. I am on record saying you will not need your snow brush again until next winter. Will you finally have the onions to take a stance and make a declaration.
DeleteYou aren't seriously trying to start this stupid e-peen measuring contest again are you? All I'm saying is that we aren't likely to get through April without some additional snowfall, that's it. If we don't get any more snow then let me be the first to congratulate you for Being Right On The Internet™ against all odds. But a concrete call like that has no predictive skill. None. Zero. So I'm not going to make one. Enjoy the warmth.
DeleteWas down in Florida for a week and a half and the sun felt great!! It was actually nice to come back to fresh, crisp air. But for those thinking that our snow chances are gone; you're either gas-lighting or haven't lived in WNY for too long. My main concern is if we get a prolonged stretch of 10-20 degrees above average temps that triggers early blossoming only to have a hard frost or snowfall absolutely ruin the growing season (as it did a few years back where it was warmer in March than April and a late April snowfall killed off a lot of plants). All in all though, I'm sure there will still be a few more systems to track over the next month.
ReplyDeleteAlso, to the poser Weather guy who said the NAM went out to 10 days, smh...