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Saturday, February 20

What happens next week?

There's been a lot of buzz recently about another potential winter storm for next week but at this point, it's still WAY too soon to say how this system will impact western New York.

Right now, the energy that will ultimately spawn this developing area of low pressure is still sitting out over the Pacific Ocean so forecast models are having a really tough time figuring out what to do. Once this upper level energy moves onshore, models will have more data to work with and hopefully they will start to come into some agreement.

A few days ago, it looked as though this potential storm would move along the coast bringing another round of snow but over the past day or so, most models have shifted the track significantly further west. A further west track would draw in much milder air and bring a rain/snow mix to much of western New York with little accumulation.



Right now, our forecast is leaning toward a warmer system with less potential for a major snow event. That said, it's still several days out and a lot can change between now and then. Keep checking back with us for updates.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

217 comments:

  1. Yeah this thing is pretty much done and we will get rain. The latest GEFS have 90 percent of them west of us so that is all folks. Kind of knew this would happen when there was an early excitement about a big storm hitting us. Even the Mets mentioned it a week in advance because they wanted to gives the CE an early heads up.

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  2. You know it is dead when not one tweet from KW and JN today. That tells you where the trend is with this storm. Sorry Snowdog thought it was going to be back to back mega storms.

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  3. That's ok. I'd rather rain than some sort of mix.

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  4. Bernie Rayno way on this one too. He had this storm way more east as of yesterday. He has been real quiet all day not one video.

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  5. I know it can shift east again but doesn't sound likely. I drank the cool aid a little too soon on this one and that's my own fault. Models gave us a reason to think we were lookin at big snow but it might not be in the cards this time around.

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  6. Bernie Rayno put up a vid on his facebook saying he thinks it will trend east, fwiw. Not sure, don't think anyone can tell for sure at this point.

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    Replies
    1. Well it better start trending quickly because the models have been trending NW for 2 days now. Big storms generally trend NW the closer they get so I think Bernie is out to lunch with this one.

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    2. The last one trended east pretty late

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  7. You are right Farmington and I think many of us felt this was going to be a good one for us again. I believe unfortunately that will be it for anymore big synoptic snow storms for us the rest of winter. But we did get the doozy last Tuesday and am happy for that.

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  8. All the local Mets have high 30s and 40s for Wednesday and Thursday with mix and rain guess it is a done deal. Thought KW said JN would not have a better idea until tomorrow night? Guess that the models have come to agreement earlier.

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    Replies
    1. Did you even read what Matt said before commenting?

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  9. WWould you rather have
    A) 1 synoptic 18 inch storm.
    B) 3 synoptic 6 inch storms.
    C) 18 Lake Effect 1 inch events.

    Feel free to take my poll here:

    http://vote.pollcode.com/91115659

    or click my name

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  10. Freezing rain also not out of the question for us with this storm too.

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  11. Oz GFS is horrible and even farther west. This threat is done.

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  12. Hey good news the latest Canadian model gives us good snow. The bad news is this model has not got a storm right yet ha ha.

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  13. I am caving in. The GFS and Euro stay west with this one. There are still some less reliable models that go East but the GFS and Euro are the more reliable ones. Looks like a rainstorm turning to a little light snow at the end. Gets colder after that with a few weak clippers.

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  14. Looks like we get some good lake effect snow after the storm passes:

    FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
    OF COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
    AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED LAKE
    EFFECT SNOW TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
    SIGNIFICANT HEADLINE WORTHY ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
    THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO AREAS SOUTH
    OF LAKE ONTARIO. A CLIPPER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE AREA ON
    SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
    SNOW. THIS ALSO WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL
    TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

    &&

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  15. To answer spreadsheets question. I would rather have 1 18+ memorable snowstorm in the winter like Tuesdays rather than several 6" systems.

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  16. SG, I would take 18 one inch snowfalls every time. I like typical WNY winters nickel and dime keeps things fresh and white. If all winters behaved like this winter, I would prefer we didn't have snow at all. The muddy brown snow piles and endless puddles are making me want to fast forward to May. It wont bother me a bit if the next storm cuts west and the rain melt the rest of this ugly slushy garbage yesterdays warmth has left behind. I am done with this winter, to bad it isn't done with us yet.

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  17. No CCCC posts at all that ells you where this storm has gone. NAM way west of us too.

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  18. It is I going West. No doubt now. Lets move on.

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  19. Scott tweet if you are looking for another big snowfall Wednesday go to Michigan. Funny how this storm is nailed down 4 days in advance but ours last Tuesday was about 12 hours before we were sure of heavy snow. Weather models are weird.

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  20. Man if this storm had cold air to work it would have been historic. So close but yet so far for storm lovers.

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  21. If it is rain, and cold enough -- we might be in for a ice storm. That would be something.

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    Replies
    1. No chance for an ice storm do not worry.

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  22. Though I loved how the snow looked after this winter storm this week; with the way the City and County handled things, I am kind of glad that we will be missing out on this one. It gives both more time to get their acts together or to come up with better ways to blame the local weather folks on how they missed the boat on this one.

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  23. I have been up studying models all night long. My wife came in and slapped me. I guess swim suit models don't count.

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    Replies
    1. I saw the same model. Had an area of high pressure.

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  24. Where is CCCC? Come on some response please. You can not just respond when we have storm on the door step. We need you when we get disappointed by a big miss. Give us long term information please. LES a possibility does it loo really cold a week from now?

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  25. If I thought it would make a difference I'd fly off an on a four letter tirade at Mother Nature... honey you really suck this year. Rain in February??... Go $%#~%$ yourself!

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  26. We need to put an APB for CCCC because he has been awol. I am worried about him.

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  27. Lol calm down, I've just been busy lately that's all.

    It does look to get pretty cold about a week from now following a clipper passage, but with the cold comes a dry pattern as well. We probably aren't looking at another major storm opportunity until that cold starts to relax.

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  28. Didn't the Euro put us at around minus 13F for a week from now?

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    Replies
    1. I don't see that anywhere. The GFS and GGEM have lows in the single digits though.

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    2. -13C is 8.6 F?

      Here's to hoping for an 'early' spring. I'm dislike the mud season.

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    3. I second that thought. March is my least favorite month for that reason. I don't like getting two feet of snow one day only to have it melt the next, leaving muddy brown snow piles and a yard you cant even walk through. No storms from here on out would be just fine with me. I will be glad to say goodbye to this dreadful winter once and for all.

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    4. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead2.png
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_lead2.png

      pls give

      Delete
  29. Who cares about cold. I hate cold. Less snow when it gets that frigid like CCC said.

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  30. Still 3 days out you never know if a 100 mile SE shift is not impossible. We did get the perfect track a week ago maybe we ride that momentum.

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  31. Tonight's 0z runs remind me of the lottery, pretty negligible chances, but hey, you never know...

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  32. Weatherguy I think your chance of winning the lottery is better than this storm moving far enough for us to be in the sweet spot. So unfortunate because with the right track and cold air this could have been a monster for us.

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  33. I do not understand how this system rides pretty close to us if not over us and we see really no impact? Especially that the LP seems really strong. Is it because there is no cold air?

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    Replies
    1. Syracuse felt the same way last week.

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    2. That + dry slot. The lack of cold air is a problem even in the cold sector...the modeled snow swath is pretty narrow with this thing until it gets north of our latitude

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  34. What about the significant LES that was being talked about after this storm goes through? Is that no longer the case?

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  35. Maybe after the weekend clipper. Ensemble mean wind direction looks more favorable for ESE/E of the lakes though.

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  36. It would be pretty okay if the modeled wraparound from the Cleveland steamer turned out to be more than a pipe dream. Usually you end up chasing unicorns with those depictions.

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  37. Wow not one new post this morning. We are all quiet on the winter weather front. Time to move on to spring and be happy with the one monster storm last Tuesday.

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    Replies
    1. Spring type weather is at least 6 weeks away. Wouldn't surprise me if we had a couple decent March snow storms. Probably crappy, cold and wet till at least mid April.

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    2. I remember reading this asterisk in the Rochester Tourism Pamphlet.

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    3. Some of our biggest snow storms have been in March including a couple blizzards. Not unusual for March to be very snowy in a winter that underperformed.

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  38. What are folks seeing for Friday and Saturday. The weather app (Weather Live) calling for "Blizzard-like conditions" for Friday, with heavy to moderate snow for Saturday. None of the local weather folks are talking about it, except to mention that the artic cold will return this weekend with temps barely out of the teens. What are folks seeing.

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  39. There will be no blizzard conditions and no moderate to heavy snow on Friday or Saturday. Just a little clipper that will blast through with a brief burst of snow on Saturday. This will bring colder air in after.

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  40. Friday could have some lake enhanced wraparound with a modest accumulation. Don't know how any automated weather app could resolve that as "blizzard-like conditions." Just another reason to avoid those things IMO. But I digress...the wraparound looks to me like the first of three opportunities for snowfall during the next few weeks. The other two are early and late next week. Near to below average temps look like the rule more often than not during the first 8-10 days of March, with maybe a turn towards above average after mid month. So we don't appear to be done with winter for at least another couple of weeks.

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  41. Am I wrong or did the Euro move east somewhat? Not in big snow but looks like a few inches now if that was the track?

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  42. 12z ECMWF way East for 12z Thursday?

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  43. Hp? not sure what you are saying. It was east but not way east today.

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  44. East enough to shift us from a cold rain to a slightly colder rain. Really not a noteworthy change at all.

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    1. But maybe the trend continues?

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    2. Maybe freezing rain. Would not be surprised is Advisories and Watches for freezing rain go up. Can hope for an ice storm.

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    3. What kind of idiot would want an ice storm

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    4. Anon 6:06 -- the same that hopes for a blizzard or a massive winter storm.

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  45. Anon 2:28 just stop it and do not try to be funny. No freezing rain and it is easy to figure out you are being sarcastic about the weather. If you do not lie winter weather then move to Cali. or Florida.

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  46. Look like the wind might be the concern for Wednesday into Thursday. With all of the melting snow and rain; plus 20-30 mph winds; it might be interesting.

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  47. I don't see much of a wind threat or freezing rain threat. There might be some wintry precip initially but there's nothing about the temp profile that suggests a lengthy period of freezing rain. Wind would be a much bigger concern if the low track was farther NW instead of nearly overhead

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  48. Does the latest NAM give us some back end snow on Friday?

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  49. Looks like the next system goes west again giving us rain to snow. It seems like were back into that same patter of systems going west again.

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    Replies
    1. Is there a next one? Or are you talking about the one they said will go west the last 2 days that arrives weds?

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    2. Last week's storm dramatically increased my respect for this winter. Especially as I got to watch the whole thing from home. It was a memorable storm. Got to see some of the bluest snow in memory. Most of it fell while I could watch. Hours straight of 2 inches an hour. I can't remember personally experiencing that intensity of snow for that duration when there was virtually no wind. No dry slots. Just snow. I did get an hour with some sleet. But not enough to ruin the experience. The kind of storm where you step out the door and think. Wow. It snowed more than I thought. It's still been a tough winter to sit through. But it feels good to get a memorable one.

      My condolences to everyone who commuted through that. But my inner kid still loves a good snow storm. And loves that we moved somewhere where every year you've got a shot. And most winters you've got a fair amount of lake effect to whet your appetite. And it really does keep the ground pretty.

      It's almost time to pay the piper in mud and delayed spring. But last week's storm makes it worth it.

      Delete
  50. Winter Weather Advisories are up. Lets hope the Snow Plows are out later today to begin to salt the roads, and not wait until the last minute. This is their time to redeem themselves and instill confidence again.

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    1. In fairness there were too many cars on the road last Tuesday. Rush Hour. Heavy snow. What are they supposed to do? Push all the stuck cars out of the way. It is possible to get overpowered by a snowstorm. Even in Western NY.

      Friends from other parts of the country ask me all the time if they ever close schools here and what it takes. I always tell them it usually comes down to timing.

      12 inches wraps up at dinner time. Definitely have school the next day.

      6 inches fall from 4 am to 6 am. Good chance they cancel. Ice storm and all bets are off.

      The timing. And the terrible choice not to start the day with travel restrictions put the plow drivers in an unwinnable situation. A quick dump of heavy wet snow peaking during rush hour? I couldn't keep my driveway clear during the storm.

      I take issue with the county. But not the plow drivers.

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    2. Didn't mean to come across as criticizing the Snow Plow driver; but more so the City and County Officials who give the directive to the operators.

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  51. Next Stop sunny and 72!!! cant wait!!!! The big snow was fun, but I m ready for some Bass Fishing now.....the 2 inches of rain is going to make for a sloppy wet mess for quite sometime.

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    Replies
    1. 72 is a long, long ways out.

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  52. Pretty amazing that this storm and the next 2 potentials are going to be cutters and bring rain. This has now been consistent the last few runs on all models. Guess KW may be re-thinking his proclamation that after this storm tomorrow we get wintry the next few weeks. Glad we had that monster a week ago or this winter would have really sucked. Kind of ready for an early spring just hate to have GLC storms. Look at the moisture we are wasting tomorrow and Thursday.

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    1. The thing about early next week is that nearly all of its precip is in the cold sector, so if it did track NW of us we would get very little rain. As long as it's close enough we at least have a shot at some backside snow.

      And are we really declaring the one 10 days from now to be set in stone as a cutter? IDK where you're finding any consistency with that one because I'm not seeing any.

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    2. I would not call early next week a 10 day time frame?

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  53. I don't get the people in Rochester. When Stacey, Matt, Josh Nichols post that this storm will bring heavy rain people are happy about that. I ask why do you live in the North if you do not like snow. It is winter people. It is supposed to snow. I don't get it and never will. Go live in the south if you don't like snow.

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    Replies
    1. I'm concerned about the rain and the melting snow; which could mean potential flooding

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    2. Because TOO MANY people have decades of conditioning to complain about our Weather, regardless of winter or summer. Pretty pathetic that people complain about the snow year after year and haven't figured out how to embrace the many ways to make snow enjoyable or at least moved.

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    3. and let me also add, that besides a hurricane, tornado or ice storm, there isn't much worse than 35 degree rain and wind in February. At least if it snowed there'd be something to do afterward--- snowmobile, sled, ski, cross country ski, snowshoe, build a snowman, build a snow fort, walk to a bar for a blizzard party, etc, etc.

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    4. A lot of people live in the north for reasons other than the climate. And even then our climate offers a little something for everyone save for those who crave extreme temperatures on a frequent basis. If you enjoy sun and warmth then you cope with the winters and get rewarded with some of the most pleasant summer weather you'll find anywhere. If you enjoy cold and snow then you bide your time until the first of many snowfalls over a span of several months. If you enjoy neither of those things then the transitional seasons almost always bring a wide range of temps and precip. Thing is that the variety in our climate is a bit of a double edged sword...there's something for everyone to enjoy but that also means there's something for everyone to hate. So you'll naturally end up with incessant complaining from differing parties pretty much year round. It's very much a maladaptive coping mechanism but at the same time it's largely unavoidable.

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  54. We really should be under a flood watch for the upcoming 1-2" of rain instead of a WWA for the extremely thin glaze of ice that's going to melt two minutes after it falls.

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    Replies
    1. I was thinking the same thing. Nothing is showing that any freezing rain for Monroe County will last very long or even happen at all right now. Flooding on the other hand, is almost guaranteed in some areas.

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    2. Totally agree with you about Flooding Warnings.

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  55. 53 on Sunday???? WTF. What happened to the cold air that was supposedly coming. Guess mother nature had other ideas.

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    Replies
    1. Nws saying 38 for Saturday and Sunday. Models all over the place.

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  56. Imagine the snow we would be getting if it was cold enough

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    Replies
    1. But it would be a lot of it too :)

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  57. We dodged a bullet on an ice storm, it looks like parts of Ontario Canada through Quebec will be getting it.
    Ray

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  58. You gotta love 34 deg rain. The quicker the next month passes the better. I will say regardless of what happens the rest of this winter that my opinion of this winter will not change. It was the worst winter for snowfall and OT in a long time and I hope it don't drag on. The quicker we can get spring the better. Oh well, enjoy the rain we have zero say in the matter.

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    Replies
    1. The only positive to rain in Feb is that it will wash away the salt. Otherwise it's a real $#@! Sandwich served by Mother Nature.

      I wouldn't be surprised if we got some big March snow as sometimes happens after low snowfall Dec - Feb. But I wouldn't count on it either. The only thing I'm counting on is to be mentally prepared for a loooonnnngggg, cool, wet spring. UGH!

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  59. Anyone seeing anything - or can hazard a guess - about potential of accumulating snow Thursday and Friday? Have to drive in the area both evenings, and with the wind and snow potential, just concerned about driving conditions. Any guidance would be appreciated. Thank you.

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    Replies
    1. Just light stuff mostly. Stiff gusts might cause some limited blowing snow, but nothing serious.

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  60. I agree HP. Besides last weeks storm this winter has truly sucked. Worst winter I have seen in many many years. We may not get over 60" to 70" for the year. Pretty pathetic. We have been in a pattern where most of the storms go west like this one and it looks like the next few will go west as well. I really cannot wait until spring as well.

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  61. No one can accurately give you guidance 10 days out.

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  62. Replies
    1. Haha... Agreed! Said the same thing myself many times. Rain should generally be outlawed Dec-Feb.

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  63. What's a 2000 mile track difference between friends...

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022412/gfs_z500_mslp_us_39.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

    Meanwhile in GGEM land...

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022400/gem_z500_mslp_us_41.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022412/gem_z500_mslp_us_39.png

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  64. I really resent the fact that this anomalously deep low pressure took the perfect track to give us the least interesting possible outcome. Heavy windblown snow to our north and west, strong winds and big time severe weather to our south and east. Our region: stratiform rain with no wind. Oh well.

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    Replies
    1. Really did you seriously want another winter storm which brings 18-22+ inches of snow in less than a 24-hour time frame. Must be that the town you live in had their act together, as the City did not. The next day there were still streets which had not been plowed. Interesting now no one heard from the Mayor. Though I am not a fan of rain, cold, and wind this time of yet; am happy we did not get the blizzard like conditions and amount of snow that those to the west of us did.

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    2. I'm always going to want the most extreme possible outcome short of outright death and destruction. Sadly that desire won't change what actually happens :P

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  65. Looks like the way the rest of this dismal winter will go. It looks like the next few systems will go West.

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  66. Looks like mother nature could be delivering a similar crap sandwich next week. Unbelievable!

    I can only dream of a 20" storm.

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  67. Yes there will be more rain next week with storms going to our west. This winter is done folks.

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    Replies
    1. Not even close to done. Our weather will keep all of us, snow lovers and haters, in misery for quite some time with cool and wet conditions.

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  68. The tracks of the storms next week on the 12z GFS are horrible. Way west and way north again is where the snow hits. I guess we used up all of our luck on our one and only storm. Please just be done and lets get an early spring. Long range does show temps soaring mid March. I think winter will move out quickly this year.

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  69. 53 on Sunday and upper 40s next week. It is for sure time to get to spring hooray!

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    Replies
    1. Sunday -- nice day to get out and take a walk or hike. Enjoy the sun.

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  70. Here's one of the main reasons for pause regarding the north track on the GFS for next week:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022512/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022512/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_25.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022512/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022512/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_27.png

    Most if not all of the spread is south of the operational. This particular issue is in addition the usual flip-flopping that's been occurring for several days. As for temps, we aren't getting into the upper 40s next week save for maybe one day if the storm tracks well NW. And we're probably going back below average for at least a little while after it passes. We know better than to anticipate a full onset of real spring by mid March...unfortunately -_-

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  71. Nice big snow flakes falling. Pretty!

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  72. KW tweets that he is watching next wed through Friday for next significant weather threat. While I'm sure there is some evidence that something could brew I think we have learned from this past week to not take the bait a week away. I'm pretty much done with hoping for more snow etc. but we will see what happens

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  73. The most notable difference this time is that we have a better high to the north. We could still end up on the warm side, just pointing out the main difference between the recent Cleveland steamer and next week's setup.

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  74. Right now the GFS gives a pretty good snow event. The EURO is West.

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  75. The Euro ensemble mean also has a pretty strong signal for a more southerly storm system later in the week. It's there on the operational too, as well as the GGEM ensemble mean and to a somewhat lesser extent the GFS ensemble mean.

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  76. It's definitely going to change but that has to be the most infuriating GFS run I've ever seen. I won't post any maps but the gist is that a large swath just north of us would have snow up to their eyeballs while we sump pump our basements.

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  77. Yike. Does not look good once again. The Euro, GFS and others all went extremely West now. That seems to be the trend. Then they show another strong storm to our west after that.

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  78. Most of the weather offices are siding with the warmer scenario and a West storm. This is getting ridiculous this year.

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  79. Funny how KW in his early weather last night dropped major hints about a storm next week while Scott did not have one thing about any storm next week on his forecast. I would side with Scott. All the models have snows well west and north of us. Get your umbrellas out again next week. This has been a horrible winter. Lucky we got the one big storm or we would be on a record setting pace for least snowfall. We are still about 30 inches behind our normal total.

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    Replies
    1. Anon 6:36 - that is what KW does to ensure viewers keep watching his weather segments vs. others. He likes to bait everyone into watching. Love the words that he used to drop hint, but then backs off by saying "still too early..."; but he still puts it out there.

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    2. I couldn't agree more...I never noticed him doing that before, until it was pointed out in this blog....one person mentioned to him that we more than likely will get rain and he said WAY too early to know. I wanted to ask him...if it's WAY too early, then why even put the word 'storm' on Wed of next week.

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    3. It's working because you clowns watch and comment on him at least once a week.

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    4. Anon 11:48 -- who you calling a clown.

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  80. Yep. Does not look good. This storm looks to take a similar track as the last one. Well west of us. Oh well. Nothing we can do about it.

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    Replies
    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016022600&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=526

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016022606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=535

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016022600&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=548

      Idk how your arriving at that conclusion so soon...

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  81. Love days like today when the sun is out, it is cold, new snow on the ground. Great day for a walk.

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  82. Love that 12Z GFS - looks like a lock for > 1 foot of snow net Wed/Thurs! - sorry Mr NBD, time to pack up your crap and leave. Hope they can keep the streets clear..............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  83. Not sure what anyone is seeing for next week.

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  84. Jackie 2:57 -- not sure what you are seeing or hearing; but all local weather folks at this point are predicting 39-40 degrees with a frozen mix of snow and rain. Except for KW who drops hints of something every now and then; even Scott has not mentioned anything about next week. Do you have your weeks mixed up. And, as some who does live within the City and experience the incompetency of the Mayor and County Executive as to preparing for the winter storm -- it is not something to joke about, as there were streets which still had not been plowed yet by the next morning. Why not join the Blizzard Guy and begin to predict when there will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next_____day.

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  85. Just because Scott hasn't mentioned it doesn't mean it isn't there. On a related note, here's what our model/ensemble "consensus" looks like right now:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022618/gfs_z500_mslp_us_20.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022612/gem_z500_mslp_us_21.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016022612/jma_z500_mslp_us_6.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016022612/navgem_z500_mslp_us_21.png
    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022612/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016022612/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

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  86. Glenn Johnson had snow in his Wednesday-Thursday forecast tonight.

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  87. Models are all over the place but most are West and since that has been the predominant track this winter that is what I am going with. I think the GFS will eventually go back to the west track. That means a mix to rain and then back to a little snow just like this weeks storm.

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  88. I am not sure what people are talking about with a possible snow storm mid week? Even all the Mets last night said there is a chance. I looked at the models and do not see any chance of much snow at all. It is time we move on to spring and put this terrible winter behind us.

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  89. We've trended bodily away from the monster solutions of a few days ago, but the GFS and GGEM both depict a significant snowstorm in WNY. The UKMET had previously shown a cutter but has been trending south over the past several runs. The current run may even be too far south for our purposes. The 12z GFS ensemble mean tracks up the Ohio Valley and across PA to southern New England, with some loose clustering north of that mean. From what I can see the Euro and NAVGEM remain the only holdouts still showing tracks directly across our region, with the Euro ensemble mean tracking from central Ohio to the Maine midcoast.

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  90. The 12z runs of the Euro, JMA and NAVGEM also shifted south. So we now have an operational model track envelope ranging between the finger lakes (JMA) and far southern PA (UKMET). The previous rainy cutter track now represents the northern edge of the member spread in both the GFS and GGEM ensembles.

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  91. So if news 8 still had Wednesday at 40 with rain to snow are they still holding out that the track will be too close to us for all snow, or do you think with the update model runs they will end up putting us in all snow? As Chris mentioned above, GJ last night did show a low tracking across just south of us as a possible storm track. Maybe he is on to something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For continuity's sake they might leave it a mix, but I can't envision them not shifting colder.

      Delete
  92. CCCC am I right in saying the latest Euro had us in a 8-10 inch snow range for Wednesday/Thursday?

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  93. This is starting to get interesting for snow lovers. It is Saturday and the Euro shows by next Friday we could have between 10-14 inches of snow in total. Many models I believe are trending towards that solution as CCCC stated above and again we are only a few days away. It is something to watch especially since all the local Mets said we need to keep an eye on the Wed-Friday time frame.

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  94. As always, we shouldn't start locking anything in until the relevant shortwave is sampled. That should occur by 12z Monday.

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  95. Yes I agree CCCC and it would help if the Oz and 12z runs tomorrow are consistent. Of course I would expect they will not be with how the models have worked this winter. But it is at least something to track until Monday.

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  96. Matt only said a few inches Tuesday night into Wednesday. Does not look like a big storm by any means. Maybe a light to moderate event.

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  97. Yeah there does not even look like much of a storm on the models. Track not the only problem it is a weak system.

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  98. Wow very quiet on here that must mean no storm this week. Latest GFS well north again.

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  99. CCCC where are you? Can you explain the craziness between the GFS and Euro with this week? We arte not far out and these 2 models are at the opposite ends of the outcome? I can not remember them ever being this far apart this close? Enlighten me please.

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  100. CCCC when you see Winter Storm Advisories, Watches, and Warnings to go into effect. All local met are looking at Tuesday night into Wednesday morning; with JN stating that the Wednesday morning commute would once again be a tricky one. Hopefully this time around the City and County will get it right as to snow plowing. I'm not blaming the snow plow operators, but those who give them the directive to "hit the road and begin to plow".

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  101. Maybe we can get an update on the blog from news 8.

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  102. Where the heck is CCCC? I am worried about him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe he is enjoying the beautiful weather like everyone should go out side!!!!!

      Delete
  103. Models look horrible for this week if you are a snow lover. But they are looking good for spring lovers the week of the 7th. Warm temperatures are coming. KW was way off when he said winter was here until at least mid March.

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  104. Fine with me. After today I am ready for spring. I want to put this horrible winter behind me.

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  105. Models back west with Wednesday storm and Friday OTS. This winter has really sucked please end and am glad to see very warm temperatures predicted in a week.

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  106. Other than a few warm days the week of 3/7 I'd say the rest of the month is looking rather normal to below, so no early spring. But honestly the models have been terrible this season, so I hold little faith beyond 3 days or so.

    Tues night and weds this week still looking interesting for snow.

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  107. Bernie and Brett from accu both saying warmth by second week of March. I honestly cannot wait. The sun feels great today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who the hell are Bernie and Brett. Bert and Ernie? LMAO.

      Delete
  108. Looking at the models. The GFS is taking the storm just South of us and gives us a mix to snow. Most other models take the storm through central PA and the through central NY giving us some mix south, but mostly snow for us. It is not by any means going to be a BIG storm for anyone. If it stays all snow. 4-7" would do it.

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  109. Short range NW shifts always worry me if they take us out of the bullseye. But then again look what happened with the 490 blue bomber a few weeks ago, the jackpot actually shifted east during the preceding day after trending west for a little while.

    Days like today really get the spring fever going big time, but alas we're still technically in winter so it's not going to last. Looks like one more cold shot late in the week, then things get pretty toasty in the ensembles for several days. Average highs start increasing pretty drastically during March so this upcoming week may be winter's last hurrah.

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  110. Hey CCCC is here. So what do you think about the last hurrah this week? Do we have shot at a storm either Tuesday or Friday?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tuesday we have a shot. Friday is probably a whiff SE.

      Delete
  111. Not sure where anyone sees a storm for Tuesday/Wednesday? The models are far NW again to me. In fact it looks like a mirror of the storm this past week. Not sure where even the local Mets are saying it is going to our south?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Last week was a giant honking cutter. This one is much weaker.

      Delete
  112. Agree CCCC but it goes west of us and brings rain so not sure where there is this talk about a track to our south? I think the silence by all the local Mets today speaks volumes.

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    Replies
    1. The model consensus brings it just to our south. We may not get all snow but there will at least be a flip to snow on the backside.

      Delete
  113. kind of frustration because just yesterday the Euro had us in an 8-10 inch range and now nothing? Right CCCC you said my eyes do not lie and now it looks like not much? How can it be such a big change in 1 day with a storm 3 days away?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It really wasn't that big of a shift. Plus we do still get some snow even on the warmest guidance.

      Delete
    2. 1 to 3 inches as compared to 8-10 I think is a big shift.

      Delete
    3. Big shift in snowfall numbers certainly, but the track shift wasn't big at all.

      Delete
  114. JN says a little snow Wednesday morning and it will be NBD.

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  115. Scott just said rain and this storm is just like the one we had last week. It goes to our west. I believe I said that in my earlier post. Not sure where CCCC got model consensus brings it to our south.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Follow the bouncing ball:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022818/gfs_z500_mslp_us_10.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022818/gfs_z500_mslp_us_11.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022818/gfs_z500_mslp_us_12.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022812/gem_z500_mslp_us_11.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022812/gem_z500_mslp_us_12.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022812/gem_z500_mslp_us_13.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016022818/navgem_z500_mslp_us_12.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016022818/navgem_z500_mslp_us_13.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016022818/navgem_z500_mslp_us_14.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016022812/jma_z500_mslp_us_3.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016022812/jma_z500_mslp_us_4.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016022812/jma_z500_mslp_us_5.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022818/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022818/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_12.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016022818/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_13.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016022812/gem-ens_z500_mslp_us_12.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016022812/gem-ens_z500_mslp_us_13.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016022812/gem-ens_z500_mslp_us_14.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022818/namconus_z500_mslp_us_19.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022818/namconus_z500_mslp_us_21.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022818/namconus_z500_mslp_us_23.png

      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif
      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif
      http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

      Approximately zero of those model depictions are west. Some are directly overhead. Most are south, with the greatest clustering in the southern tier/northern PA.

      Delete
    2. So you are going with snow for this event against Scott's thinking of mostly rain?

      Delete
    3. Even if you take the southern tier/northern PA cluster verbatim then we still get a period of mix or rain. So the short answer is that I'm not favoring an all snow outcome.

      Delete
  116. Latest NAM way NW of us and just the beginning of all the runs showing that outcome. This is the same track as last week.

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    Replies
    1. You're talking like the previous NAM run wasn't also "way NW," which is a dubious assertion in the first place unless we've somehow teleported to the southeastern corner of the state. You're also talking like the NAM doesn't still have a notorious NW bias. And I know it isn't much, but this run actually gives us more snow than the last one.

      Delete
  117. Well, KW isn't giving up. He just posted this about an hour ago on Twitter:
    "EURO ensemble w/ support from UKMET/Canadian make for interesting Wednesday-mix to snow shoveling."

    ?

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  118. Does he ever give up? He knows posting that will get people to watch JN tonight and him tomorrow.

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  119. Implying that Kevin tweets weenie bait to garner ratings and not because he's kind of a weenie in his own right.

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  120. Even KW will now give up. Like the NAM and as predicted the Oz GFS is well NW just like last week this one is history.

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  121. Are people just deliberately getting everything dead wrong today? The 00z GFS jumped noticeably south from 18z with a track from SW PA to south central NY. Previous run was approximately from Erie to the Finger Lakes.

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  122. Total snowfall through 84 hours:

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160229/00Z/f084/acckucherasnowne.png

    Yeah wow we should totally pack it in, just another cold rainer like last time with that way NW track to our south and east.

    -_-

    -_-

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  123. Just a disclaimer: all of my PMS-esque snark about the recent GFS is in no way an endorsement of what it shows.

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  124. What does that show CCCC? People are wrong with saying this is rain?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It shows 6+" of mainly snow in the ROC metro with lesser amounts SE and greater amounts NW. Rain stays confined to the Finger Lakes. Anyone saying it was NW with rain for all is either looking at the wrong run or thinks this is a Binghamton area weather blog.

      Delete
  125. CCCC -- so the 6+ inches will all over night Tuesday is what you are saying. Even this morning -- the local Weather Folks had a mix of snow and rain, and talked about some accumulation on Wednesday. Are you seeing something different then they are. 6+ inches in the Metro overnight can be a big deal.

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  126. We are not getting 6 inches of snow an inch or two at best.

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  127. Weather channel and Accuweather (I in no way have much faith in either) have us at 8 to 9 inches by wednesday. its another fine line storm, 25 or 30 miles in either direction can make or break the storm. if it ticks SE we get alot more than we thought, if it ticks NW we get a lovely soaking icy mess.

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  128. CCCC has lost his mind apparently because this one is going to be all rain with maybe an inch or two of white stuff. And look ahead to next week: upper 50's and sunshine. I'm ready for spring..

    ReplyDelete

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