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Monday, February 15

Final Post Before The Storm

WRITTEN BY:  SCOTT HETSKO

Looks like the area will indeed see a heavy, wet snow beginning overnight.  The heaviest snow will fall through the morning hours with snow fall rates of 1-2" per hour from Rochester and areas West.


It will be a very sharp line between 12" of snow and 4" from Ontario County East.  I remain worried about a few hours of mixing lowering snowfall totals in central Monroe County but there's nothing that we can do but wait and see.  The exact location of the deformation zone will be where the most snow occurs.  Right now I think that sets up near Churchville extending Southwest into NE Wyoming County.  It's going to be a fun one!


256 comments:

  1. Let's get ready to shovel! (read in a ring announcer's voice.)

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  2. Lol SsG. I just can't wait to see what KROC measures from this event... I can see it now, 12-18" for much of the area only to see the dreaded "MM" reported to the NWS. Regardless though, can't wait to see this one unfold tomorrow, we've all been waiting way too long...

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    Replies
    1. You can't tell, but my avi is a spreadsheet that says.
      KROC: 2"
      Everywhere else:6"

      So. Hopefully KROC registers "6 inches"

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  3. Not that big of a shift on his map with the totals.

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  4. Does Scoot's map put the east side areas like Fairport, Penfield, Pittsford and RH in the 4-9 inch range?

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  5. Hope Scotts wrong. I am in the 4-9" range.

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  6. Thanks Scott. Travel tomorrow if going to be terrible to say the least. I would like to remind everyone to give the local road plows some room on the roads. We have enough trouble clearing the roads without impatient drivers causing problems. Till we meet again.

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  7. For what it is worth the latest GFS looks put us in a nice 12-16 inch swath of snow.

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  8. KW a bit ago said new data still leads him to like what he has predicted which is 12-18 for Rochester metro. Big difference than Scott who has sleet much farther west but both seem to have same track on their map.

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  9. CCCC any updates on what you think?

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  10. I think the changeover zone makes it as close to ROC as approximately a Dansville to Sodus line.

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    Replies
    1. We had a lot of heavy rain that fell early this morning. Thanfully, it changed over to all snow. I still lost a lot of large branches from trees in our front yard tho ๐Ÿ˜•
      Chris in Sparta

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    2. We had a lot of heavy rain that fell early this morning. Thanfully, it changed over to all snow. I still lost a lot of large branches from trees in our front yard tho ๐Ÿ˜•
      Chris in Sparta

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  11. I hope all those excited about heavy wet persistent snow don't have to drive in it. I understand the love of snow but still cannot wrap my head around getting pumped about this sort of accumulation. Safe travels..

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  12. Latest NAM has us all in the sweet spot!

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  13. Less than an inch so far in Hamlin, but the radar is starting to light up nicely just south of the area.

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  14. Snowing heavt in Gananda. Channel 10 has move the 12-18 east into wayne county. Channel 8 same. Think their wrong.


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  15. Looks like sleet coming into the city shortly and will cut numbers way back in city.

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    Replies
    1. Where do you see sleet. The mix is way South. Look at radar. 6" in Gananda already. Snowing heavy. At least 1" per hour.

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  16. Does anyone know how fast moving this storm will be? Is it just through the morning or all day? I see a lot of 2 hour delays

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  17. All sleet in Lyons. Can hear it banging on the windows.

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  18. If you are out on the roads because you have to get to work, as some of do, drive slow and smart. Be careful. For those who WANTED this winter weather/storm -- hope you are thrilled because you got it!

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  19. already have 6.5-7' in Webster

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  20. just snowblowed the drive out, a solid 6 inches here in Northeast walworth

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  21. Looks like the LP is way west going through western Pa. should bring rain west?

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  22. solid 8" in east Webster with 5" on my street lol

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  23. Coming down HARD!!!!!

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    1. Agreed. So pretty. Apologies to this who have to drive in this. Don't want anyone to lose power.

      But this is awesome. It's really ripping. And knock on wood. I think we'really in the clear for rain. All snow? A storm without dry slots to hear about.

      I think it almost makes listening to all of the Nino Whining.

      In other news KROC is reporting 2 inches on the ground.

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  24. And the law of averages finally emerges victorious...

    SW

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  25. Those law of averages have to be watched 9 days from now too wink wink.

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  26. Around 645AM in NE Fairport we had about a 15 min mix with sleet but otherwise straight snow. Snowing hard as heck at 820AM.

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  27. Yay! So much snow! Let's get stuck! Let's lose power! I will never understand the thrill some of you get out of snowfall like this. Having a few inches on the ground should be enough.

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    1. I will never understand people that don't know how to embrace the thrill of a nice snow storm. Yes traveling is a royal pain, so if you don't need to then stay put. Too many people aren't very smart about making good decisions about traveling. Going to work is no excuse... Unless you are in some critical job where your presence means life or death, then stay put for a while. You can leave later and avoid some of the traffic. Everyone is in the same boat.

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    2. I'm sure no one including myself is wishing for lost power or for someone to get stuck. In fact just last night I said I wish that upon no one. But at the same time I do wish for big storms for the excitement of it. I have 4 wheel drive and all the equipment to deal with winter in WNY. I'm sorry if you don't. It will melt by this weekend so don't worry .

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    3. I don't think anyone wishes for others to lose power etc. I don't embrace this but I accept it as this is rochester after all. I have a decent vehicle to travel in but just because you have 4 wheel drive, does not prevent you from slipping and sliding.

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    4. I am from Oswego.. I can handle the snow... But don't get all excited is all I am saying. Happy for you guys. Not being sarcastic. I just don't get it is all.

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  28. Back over to all snow in Lyons.

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  29. Where the heck is CCCC? Not one comment today and that is a tad disappointing.

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    Replies
    1. I don't think he does morning well. Plus I think he has a real job these days?

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    2. Why do you need CCCC? There's no more forecasting to be done for this storm, just enjoy it!

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  30. Def a bunch of snow on ground here in Farmington but also there has been plenty of sleet/freezing rain mixing in, so Scotty was right on with his concern of mixing east of city.

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  31. Finally starting to let up.

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  32. http://www.weather.gov/buf/stormtotalsnow

    *slinks back into the darkness*

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  33. It says snow according to the radar, but it has been raining pretty hard here in Victor for close to an hour now. Any idea if this will turn back to snow, or is it rain here on out? We have a good 7 or 8 inches right now. Shoveled twice, and it is HEAVY! Be careful!

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  34. Closing in on 1 foot here in eastern Penfield. Snowing to beat the band.

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  35. It is now raining in Pittsford.

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  36. 13 inches here in Pittsford by Powdermill. Though sleet is mixing in now.

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  37. Mixed with sleet again in NE Fairport for a while but back to mostly snow.

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  38. Replies
    1. Strange. Gananda is less than 10 miles from here, Fairport only 4 miles away...still all snow here.

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    2. I'm about a mile west of county line road near near Furman and it's snowing again but has mixed with sleet numerous times.

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    3. Was raining in Perinton, occurred while snowblowing driveway. Looks like it switched back to snow, but has been mixed sleet, rain, snow all morning.

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  39. Just double-checked outside. Still giant flakes continuing to pile up. No sign of rain or sleet. 13" as of 10:45, currently 34 F.

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  40. How much more snow we gonna get? There's half a foot of snow on my street. And it was plowed this morning.

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  41. 2 or 3 more inches. it will mind down in a few hours.

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  42. Not what I heard - supposed to continue to tonight.

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  43. Intensity will decrease shortly and stop around 3:00.

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  44. Stacey just said on TV just a few more inches in Monroe and Genesee counties.

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  45. In macedon I had almost 2 hours of mix, off and on. Now back to snow. I would say I have around 10 inches of snow, very heavy. Not looking forward to moving it later but such is life.

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  46. 3-6 additional through 5pm then we're done IMO.

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  47. Like I said 2-3 inches more for most.

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  48. Thanks CCCC. 5 pm slowdown is exactly what RC said on 10.

    No sign of a mix here in NE Webster, it's been all snow all the time. Easily more than a foot now. Intensity has slacked a bit in the past 30 mins, also has dropped a degree.

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  49. For once I think the KROC spotter is on point with this storm's measurements. 12.0" officially as of 10:45.

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  50. Basically outside of the far SE suburbs it seems the bulk of the metro has narrowly avoided mixing.

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  51. Well hope that is it for winter storms this winter. Hard to repeat this because not often you get the perfect path to get blasted based on our location. KW was all over this based on the models, his experience and pattern recognition with these storms. All the local Mets as usual did a great job thus kudos to all. Scott glad you are back and you came back on a mission to bring us our winter. Maybe you got one more big one for us this winter but again that will be tough.

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  52. Been all rain and/or a bit of freezing rain in Lyons since about 10 this morning. Hard to gauge the total snow accumulation since the rain has compacted the snow quite a bit.

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  53. Radar shows rain over NE perinton, but it's clearly snowing.

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  54. You talked about the rain/snow line being right near the metro days ago! Props to you, sir.

    By the way, looks like they just recently got the Bay Bridge open again going westbound. Was closed for quite a while.

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  55. The Blizzard Guy nails it again and I wonder what he thinks for the future winter weather?

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  56. Just got in from snowblowing and shoveling for 1.5 hours. Snow is very heavy, and has that bluish tint that is indicative of high water content. I would say we are up to 14-15".

    Anyone who has a shrink-wrapped boat ... brush the snow off of it! This snow is heavy enough to collapse it.

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  57. Josh and Glen both just tweeted that KROC is at 16.3" total so far. If that's the case then it would be our largest snowfall since 2007.

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    1. 15.5 at my house. It's been unusually windless. I'm never this confident in my snow total. Lots of consistency in the measurements I'm hearing. Unusual amount of consistency imo. Even the airport is on board.

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    2. Just took a measurement - exactly 15 inches, NE Webster. Breeze starting to pick up a bit and knock the snow off the trees. Still moderate snow.

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    3. Definitely been a very atypical storm compared to our other big ones. The rule is usually gusts over 30 mph and fluffy ratios. This storm has been more typical of a Mid Atlantic concrete bomb, and in the dead of winter no less.

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  58. 15" in NE Fairport.

    Cccc, We had a blizzard a year or two ago, I thought we got more snow during that one?

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    Replies
    1. The official total for that one was 16" on the dot, although I personally believe it to be a lowball measurement. More of a "traditional" big storm with huge gusts and very low visibility.

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  59. Boy, Rochester area gets the shaft again, another under performing storm. When will this streak end??? (just posting this now because I know someone eventually will)

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    1. Even Snowdog sounds happy.

      I realize most normal people are not happy. But for the rest of us it's nice to have a big one kind of sneak up.

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  60. Looks like all you fat turkeys finally got your snow storm! Hooray for snow Hooray for accidents! Now feel good about yourselves and then cry tomorrow until the next storm comes...

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    Replies
    1. You may only have to wait about 8 days for the next big one. You never know.

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    2. You mad bro?

      People were warned yet fools press on and turn things into a mess, wreck cars and get hurt. Unless your job means life or death-- medical, emergency services etc, then stay home! Use your brain!

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    3. No one was warned actually. All the wanna-be meteorologists on this board said NBD for us! They were allllllllllllllllll so certain!

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  61. Replies
    1. CCCC you are the resident expert here, and even you had this baby going out to sea and missing us. How come you weren't on point with this one? (not blaming you, because everyone had it going out to sea). My question is, why could no one make a prediction that we were gonna get walloped like this?

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    2. Hello have you forgotten about The Blizzard Guy?

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    3. I actually favored an inland track from a week out, just didn't commit to any specifics for a number of reasons. Never had it out to sea at any point. The difficulty came from just how precise the track needed to be for the narrow 12+ corridor to end up right over us, and how easily it could've dodged us.

      And I'M the resident expert? Lol no I'm pretty sure that's Scott Stacey and Matt, I'm just a commenter with a semi-neurotic passion for weather.

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    4. WHO'S MATT???????????????????????????//

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    5. Anon 3:24 -- Matt Jones -- he is the weekend Weather Guy.

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  62. If we're able to surpass 18.2" for the date then this storm will produce the 5th largest daily total since 1940.

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  63. Cannot believe all of 490 is shut down! Unheard of for ROC...why are people even out on the roads?!

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    1. WEGMANS FOR BREAD AND MILK DUDE!!!!

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    2. Anon 3:31 -- people are out on the road as they had to get to work. Some do not have the luxury of getting to stay home and take it as a vacation day. For may, if they stays home it meant a day without day. Think about why people were out before you pass judgment.

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  64. I was just in Wegmans actually. Everything is gone...Aisles are bare...Nothing left...Its all taken...Even the last can of Who Hash...

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  65. Scott on Twitter:
    "Snowiest #roc February day was 18.4" on 2/14/98. We should beat that today!"

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    1. I'm guessing that's from the records table on the NWS climo page. For some reason the dates for February are almost completely wrong...in this case the day is correct but the year is actually 1960, not 1998.

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    2. Easily beat... Not sure how much Webster got overall but it certainly looked like 24 inches to me...

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  66. We're at 17.9" for the date so far. All we need is another 0.6 for the monthly record.

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  67. This board is boring. We finally get a storm and its all quiet here. Maybe Spreadsheet Guy can talk about the Polar Plunge some more, because nothing exciting going on here...

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    1. Nah that fat toad finally made his own account after he cried for a week about it. You'll have to impersonate someone else, snowdog? HP? Weather Guy?

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  68. There will be a blizzard some where on the east coast within the next 9 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  69. A solid 18" in NE Perinton.

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  70. Almost 50 on Saturday yikes melting.

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    Replies
    1. Lets hope now; as it will result in major flooding issues.

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  71. Wow, Great storm. I have to say that KW nailed this one from the beginning. He stuck to his snow totals and they came out exactly what he said.

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  72. Agreed. I was hoping he would be wrong but he was right on with it. It's too bad that we get nailed like that and we don't even get the record.

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  73. KW is already talking about a possible storm next week. Guy just can't help himself. Doesn't he realize that 99% of the viewers don't want to hear about it. He should come here and post about it.

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  74. Revised daily total at KROC is 18.3", which will likely be the final number. 7th highest calendar day total among records going all the way back to 1871. Today was a remarkable day whether you loved it or hated it.

    IDK how much ended up falling where I am and I kind of don't care enough to measure or guess. All I know is that it was enough to nearly bury the drivers side of my car, which was facing north at the end of the parking lot in front of my apartment and thus exposed to the steady light northerly wind we had from about mid morning onward. Watching the snow stack up around it so rapidly with those 2-3"/hr rates was pretty nuts.

    By the way, we're still running about 20" below average for the season :P

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    Replies
    1. With the lowest seasonal snowfall possibility firmly in the rearview.

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    2. That possibility was already in the rearview before the storm. Bottom 5 was pushed out of the picture today though. Bottom 10 is still a very remote possibility, but we would need to get less than 5.6" total over the next 4 weeks of favorable storm climo during a back-loaded El Nino winter. Wouldn't bet on it.

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  75. How much liquid fell today?

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    Replies
    1. 1.43" officially. That might be a lowball given the total snowfall and ratios that were probably around 10:1 at most.

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  76. Anyone else seeing something for circa next Thursday?

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  77. I don't even want to think about next week for at least another 24 hours. But yes, Kevin's typical 7-day weenie bait holds some merit.

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    1. I can't even think of such a thing.. Say it isn't so! :)

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    2. Why are you here? If you hate something why hang out on a board that speculates on and appreciates storms?

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    3. You can hate snow and still contribute in a positive way...or at least a non-toxic way.

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    4. This is a blog.... A blog about weather... Am I missing something? I don't recall commenting about sports or politics. LOL. Thanks CCCC

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    5. Actually, bashing the Patriots is encouraged.

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  78. How come Scott says we missed record by tenth of an inch compared to 1998 and KW said 1960? Plus KW again has to mention winter lurks next week and he will talk more about that tomorrow. He can not help himself.

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    Replies
    1. There's an error in record keeping. 1960 is the correct year. See comments above.

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  79. Next week does look interesting. Around the Thursday, Friday time frame. Models are locking in on a potential Nor easter

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    1. Seriously for those of us who live in the City, and could not even get down their street last night, yet alone this morning. don't even want to consider or think about a potential Nor Easter for next week. Please let just celebrate and enjoy the 18+ inches of snow we got on Tuesday, and how pretty it is this morning. Also think about the people who were stuck on 490, 390, 590, and the Bay Bridge yesterday. Focus on today and not what will come.

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  80. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Really, you want a Blizzard. The Mayor and County Executive could not handle the snow we got on Tuesday; and you are hoping for a Blizzard. Two words -- stop it!

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  81. The Wunderground forecast is already hinting at something next Thurs/Friday.

    For those complaining about people being stuck and criticism of how the county/city handled it, your complaints are fairly baseless. We had a large storm forecast well in advance. Everyone that actually listens to the news/weather should have known that drive time was going to be very bad. They said drive time is when things were supposed to ramp up. Even the lowest forecast numbers would have presented a MAJOR travel issue. For the people that had issues on 490/590/104... don't act like you were surprised... Just getting to those routes was a major issue. Why didn't you turn around before you got stuck? Don't blame the lack of a travel ban, we don't need big government making decisions for us. You should rather blame your lack of judgement and common sense.

    Rant over. Ready for the next one if it comes.

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    Replies
    1. Then explain why there are still some street which have not been plowed. No there are not streets in which the snow plow operators had plowed, but due to the amount of snow falling, it was difficult to keep up. When you have a street which have over a foot of snow still last night and this morning; it is not a lack of common sense by the public. It is instead of lack of plan of action and someone who owned that plan.

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    2. I'm sure there is room for improvement from the cities standpoint. But also cars stuck in streets and on sidewalks doesn’t help. I bet if people did the right thing and stayed home, roads being clear of cars would have helped plowing efficiency significantly.

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  82. 12z GFS crushes us! Shows us getting 2 feet of snow next week, mostly between Wednesday-Friday...wow!

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    1. Yea,yea, yea! Give it break! We are not going to get crushed! This one will be hugging the East Coast.

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    2. Two things:

      -Don't get hung up on a single model run
      -Don't rule anything out yet

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  83. Government officials definitely could've done a much better job with highway closures and the like (looking at you Cheryl "Thumb Up Own Ass" Dinolfo). They don't have any excuses, it's their job to lead and they did it poorly. I don't blame workers nearly as much for trying to get to work in rough conditions, as someone mentioned earlier they don't always have the luxury of staying home and missing out on a day's pay. They're going to brave the conditions and possible gridlock regardless of their better judgement. Those who did have the luxury of staying home shouldn't have been on the roads yesterday, and on top of that any employers who could've afforded to remain closed yesterday should've paid their employees for the day and told them to stay home. Then again, those employers who did open at their regular hours...and those employees who did try to get to work when they should've stayed home...may have based their decisions around the number of road closures and travel alerts, of which there were few if any as the morning rush began. Ultimately the only inexcusable failure was that on the part of government officials...employers and employees could've (and should've) made better decisions yesterday but they at least have plausible excuses.

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  84. It is a week away and is the GFS so have to temper storm idea for next week. But that 12z GFS did bury WNY and CNY but it will change multiple times. Lets see what the 12z Euro says in about an hour. Does look like there will be storm somewhere on the coast unless it slides OTS.

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  85. So I'm breaking my own 24 hour rule and looking into next week a little bit...my first impression is that it's probably not as much of a threat to track inland as yesterday was. The Atlantic ridge in the ensemble means is located farther east, plus we have a building ridge out west instead of a collapsing one. That said, we don't always need an inland track to get substantial snow in WNY. A storm track right along the coastline can get it done with the right environment for precipitation to spread out far from the low center, and/or with cold enough air for lake enhancement. And the fact that we do still have an Atlantic ridge at least argues against a track favoring the Mid Atlantic/I-95. Still a lot to be resolved as always, but that's how the general setup looks to me. That's all from me for now.

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  86. No doubt KW thinks something is brewing for next week. He said it is early but he had 2 tweets about it today and he has been on fire.

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  87. Early returns have GFS/Canandian will WNY getting pounded next week. But Euro/JMA have it too far east to impact us. We have the least reliable on our side. My guess is the GFS will come to the Euro side like most storms have this winter.

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  88. Gotta love that KW. In one tweet he talked about holding off mentioning any potential of a Winter Storm, and then the next tweet is just that "too early to talk about potential of a Winter Storm for next Wed/Thurs". Always looking for that hook to drag people to him and increase ratings.

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  89. For those of us who are exhausted from Tuesday Winter Storm; driving, setting stuck, shoveling, etc. -- can we simply hold off talking about the NEXT potential for a Winter Storm. Do you really want to experience another Tuesday? I personally don't. What we should be concerned about is the increase in temperatures and how the snow will begin to melt - possibly leading to flooding. But again, with the mounts of snow, it will probably still be here come May.

    HP how are you doing. Figured you must of had an incredible amount of overtime; so hopefully you have been able to get a few hours of solid, uninterrupted sleep before you are back out on the roads.

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  90. Lets be clear that any storm next week will not be any where near what we experienced Tuesday. That track was perfect for us and the LP had a lot of moisture. There is a HP with this one that will not help the track for us and the LP will not have as much moisture. This has more of a mid-Atlantic/NE set-up IMO. Plus more of a 8-10 inch snowfall so relax and do not worry.

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    1. And your a Meteorologist?????

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    2. Yes I have a Doctorate Wannameteorology.

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    3. Let's be clear anon 331, that it is far too early to proclaim that any storm late next week will be less severe or more severe than the one we just had.

      The only thing we can say for certain is there is the possibility of a snow event next week.

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  91. Scott just mentioned on his broadcast the potential for a storm next week. Now that is very unusual for him to do that 7 days in advance. He must be seeing the set-up is at least conducive for a large storm.

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    1. Properly say what he said. You are making it sound like a big setup when he said there is a system everyone is watching. By 5:45 he even said that we don't know whether it will be a big deal or not.

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  92. That was a good storm as far as snow accumulation goes, but was easy to handle here with no winds. If I had to rank this storm from 1-10 for plowing difficulty here in Hamlin, I would only give it a 3-4. I would say we got between 12 and 16 inches after settling. If we would have had 30 or 40 mph winds with that snow we would have had our hands full. I only ended up with 5 hours of OT. The snow cleaned up very quick without winds drifting it. It took me longer to snow blow the snow form my driveways.

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  93. We've been enjoying the thick snow pack and have been having a blast riding the snowmobiles around our property. Seems a little far out to get any hopes or fears up about anything next week. When is the last time we have been a week out getting bulls eyed on a model and had it pan out?

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  94. KW said good chance storm to go east of us next week.

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  95. That little disturbance on Monday could produce a modest accumulation, but of course no one here except me will care because of the midweek big dog XD

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    1. I care, 3-5 inches pays just as much as 20 inches maybe even more with some wind. BTW, this is the deepest snow I have seen on the ground after a single storm in Hamlin. Usually we have 4 foot drifts and bare ground else where. It was nice to get a storm without the wind for a change.

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  96. it is so funny because the clueless new county executive tried to blame the Mets for her mistake they are all mentioning this possible storm a week away ha ha. In fact KW is the one down playing it the most saying more east of here. But KW,GJ and Scott all said they will be keeping an eye on it. I am assuming for the CE. Btw the storm will not be huge anyway because no cold air to work with and the track more east of us I believe.

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  97. Yikes 0z Euro goes an earlier GFS and gives us over 20 inches of snow. Still early but this is getting interesting.

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  98. Strange. The GFS has no storm at all now and the Euro came much further east and slams us. It will be fun to watch. All the mets last night talked about it even Scott. For him to speak of a potential storm a week away must mean he sees something interesting or us.

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  99. If we are expecting another winter storm next week; then the City and County folks needs to get their act together now; and plow the streets, along with apt parking lots. Cars needs to not park on the street right now so they can be properly cleared. it is still a mess within the City. UGH for next week, if what Anon 2:04 says will happen, another 20+ inch snow event. Wonder who the County Executive will blame next, and interesting that we are not hearing anything from the Mayor. Just saying.

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  100. My wife drives in the City all day for her job. She has had to take my 4WD SUV the last two days because not only are many side streets unplowed, but she often has to park in areas that are full of snow or driveways without snow removed.

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    Replies
    1. As someone who lives in the City -- your wife is absolutely correct. As least the cars which were abandoned in the middle of the streets due to being stuck has been towed.

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  101. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH
    THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
    THE APPALACHIANS AND ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND EC
    OPERATIONAL RUNS SEEM TO HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT ON A TRACK FROM
    THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
    WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING ABOUT 6
    HOURS FASTER THAN THE EC BUT BOTH MODELS CARRY A SIMILAR LOW CENTRAL
    PRESSURE. THE TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
    ACCUMULATING SNOW IN WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
    MAY EVEN BE ANOTHER STRIPE OF HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WITHIN A
    DEFORMATION BAND OVER WESTERN NEW YORK IF THIS TRACK HOLDS TRUE.
    HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR WNY BUT BUMPED THE EASTERN LAKE
    ONTARIO COUNTIES TO LIKELY POPS BASED ON NEW 00Z GUIDANCE AND IN
    COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN
    THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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  102. I noticed that the NWS was mentioning about a possibility yesterday. Being almost a week away are there factors or reasons to think the models will change their mind and lose this altogether or have it go way west/east? Why Is this one so far out and the models have more or less latched onto it versus this past one where a week out they were back and forth with it?

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  103. I LISTENED TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL AS WELL AND THEY MENTIONED THAT WILL DEFINATLEY BE A STORM AS ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT IT. THEY ALSO BELIEVE IT WILL BE AN INLAND TRACK LIKE TUESDAY AS THEY BEKLIEVE THAT IS HOW THE JET STREAM WILL LINE UP. IT SEEMS LIKE THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OF AN IMPACT TO OUR AREA, NOT SURE WHY KW SAID LAST NIGHT THAT THE MODELS WERE CONVERGING ON A WAY EAST PATH WHEN IT IS A WEEK AWAY. IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY HE STATED THAT A STORM IS LIKELY AGAIN.

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  104. IT'S STILL A WEEK OUT SO WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS COME TOGETHER, BUT BEFORE THEN, YELLING IS FUN!

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  105. If what everyone is saying above is correct; then the City and County better get their act together now, and start dealing with the snow which we currently have. The side walks are next to impossible within the City to walk down, and when you get to the corner -- trying to see if there is oncoming vehicles, is challenging. The local news stations are missing an opportunity to pressure the City and County officials to get their act together now, and deal with the almost 2 feet of snow we have. For those who think this is not a big take, take an hour out of your day and drive around the City, and the side streets to see what it is like.

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  106. Are folks predicting another 15-24+ snow fall on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week? That on top of the 3-6 inches we expect on Monday?

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  107. Anon 12:42 no one is predicting another 12-18 inch snowfall. It is way to early to even now the track let alone the amounts. The only thing that appears solid is there will be a storm impacting the east coast some where. But I do believe it will be nothing like Tuesday those only happen once in a while. We had the PERFECT track and the strong band set up right in Monroe county that will not happen again.

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    Replies
    1. It has happened before and can happen again. This could actually be a stronger system with more wind as well. Like you said though, it is way early but the fact that all mets, NWS, Weather channel are talking about it this early in the game says something.

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  108. Man everyone is getting all jazzed up again. And no, the models are not all predicting a big storm around here. This is what KW just tweeted "On storm risk next Wed/Thu for #ROC GFS is a whiff-way east; Canadian is a NY I81 special. Await EURO. Still WAY early..."

    Seems like the models are jumping all over just like last week. Most of them had it missing us last week as well.

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  109. when do folks anticipate Winter Storm or even Blizzard Advisories, Watches or Warning to go up? It seems that this is being talked about or even mentioned repeatedly on all media fronts.

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  110. Probably tomorrow there will be a Blizzard Warning issued by The Blizzard Guy.

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    Replies
    1. Was being serious; however, Blizzard Guy did predict the last Blizzard we had in the Flower City. So he might be correct.

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  111. Boy KW and RC tweets say two different things. One say Winter Storm looks good for next Wednesday/Thursday, the other say it will be too far east and out to sea to impact our area. Even then don't agree.

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  112. 12z Euro jumps way east with the GFS now. We will be out of it and that will make many happy.

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  113. RC states that the Euro gives us a BIG snowstorm, not sure what you are talking about. The GFS is out to see. Remember the Euro was right for the Tuesday storm. The GFS ended up coming in line with the EURO.

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  114. any links to the euro model? i can never find it

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  115. That was the over night 0z Euro run which we got crushed with and I mentioned it in my 2:00am post. The most recent 12z Euro run just came out and it is way east like the GFS. Game over maybe.

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  116. KW just tweeted Euro farther east and blend of the models suggest this storm farther east than Tuesday one. Impossible to get perfect track major storms back to back.

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  117. KW is jumping on every model run which is a no no in Meteorology. He should know that.

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  118. The models will change 1000 times. It is 6 days away. Come on.

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  119. FROM THE NWS:

    FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
    POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODEL
    GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...WITH BIG RUN TO RUN CHANGES AND A
    WIDE VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. VIRTUALLY
    ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
    POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM LOW PRESSURE OUT TO SEA WITH MAINLY DRY
    CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER LAKES...TO A LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
    THE COAST AS IN INLAND RUNNER WHICH WOULD BE A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR
    ANOTHER HEAVY SYNOPTIC SNOW IN OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL
    UNCERTAINTIES FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
    CONTINUITY...WITH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN AT LEAST A LOW
    POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION IN THE
    HWO.

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    Replies
    1. So you anticipate the Winter Storm to begin to hit our area Wednesday into Wednesday night? How much snow do you see falling? When you do see Winter Storm Advisories/Warnings begin to be issued. For the last one, Advisories went up on Sunday. Do you see the same?

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  120. KW's latest tweets....

    Kevin Williams ✔ @whec_kwilliams
    UKMET model has another inside runner-but EURO is east. Blend of models suggests track farther east compared to latest storm. Early in game.

    3h
    Kevin Williams ✔ @whec_kwilliams
    On storm risk next Wed/Thu for #ROC GFS is a whiff-way east; Canadian is a NY I81 special. Await EURO. Still WAY early...

    FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES JUST WENT UP. How much of the snow will now be melting, and will the issue of flooding come into play. And folks are still looking and hoping for another Winter Storm for next week.

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  121. Love forecast from Channel 8 for next Wednesday, "No one knows".

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  122. Channel 13 has next Winter Storm for Tuesday/Wednesday - do they see something difference than others who are saying Wednesday/Thursday?

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  123. This storm has a much higher chance of being well east of us or OTS as compared to that perfect inland track. So I say the CE can take a deep breathe and as Arod relax.

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  124. Scott said as I have been saying even if we get a storm it will not be as bad as Tuesday. No way you get a prefect track like that with a record setting snowfall in back to back weeks.

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    Replies
    1. Who know we could, and for those who love this type of snow events; it would make their Winter.

      Delete
  125. MRW entering this thread:
    http://i.imgur.com/pYRuBXU.gifv

    I'll just address both sides of the storm debate as succinctly as possible...

    Naysayers:
    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwp4-7loop.html

    Doomsayers:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016021812/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016021812/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png

    We wait.

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  126. Hey where is Blizzard Guy?

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  127. My non model based take on the whole situation...people are all jacked up about the models showing something for next week and everyone is jumping on it because we always want something more. TV wants something to talk about and draw people in. It's good to mention it since models do show something but to be wondering when warnings go up etc, that's a little premature. I'll admit I took the bait and am left hoping it pans out but it's too early to conclude anything. Purely something to track. That's all KW is doing. Just because he tweets about it he shouldn't get ridiculed for it. He's just letting people know what the models are concluding several times a day no big deal.

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  128. Does not look like a big storm next week but the weather channel is stating more of an inland track with snow in western and central NY.

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  129. What are folks seeing as to the models for next week's potential Winter Storm?

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  130. I'm thinking nothing extrodinary as it has been quiet on here since yesterday evening. We will have to wait until someone with model analysis skills gives us an update.

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  131. Storm is weak and more of an off coast storm.

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  132. Storm or not, next week seems rather winter like and comparatively snowy.

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  133. The 6Z GFS came in much stronger but actually but a track West of us or right over is giving us rain turning to snow. The models are all over the place. The EURO is further west as well but weaker.

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  134. Replies
    1. and press Load More when we get to 200 comments.

      btw, anyone notice if you scroll too fast as the page is loading on a phone it sometimes loads the previous thread?

      Delete
  135. FROM THE NWS:

    AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST INLAND
    OF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
    WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE LOW TAKES A
    FAVORABLE TRACK IT MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
    DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

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  136. Travel advisory has been issued for Monroe County due to the freezing rain, resulting in multiple accidents.

    So the polar vortex made a return, we have record snow fall (18+ inches), sunshine with some snow melting, and now freezing rain. What more can be packed into this week weather wise.

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  137. 12 Z GFS looks like it has snow for us with the possible storm next week

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