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Sunday, February 14

The next one is mostly snow

WRITTEN BY:  SCOTT HETSKO

Why did I come back in Winter?!  A storm system will develop quickly along the base of an upper level trough Monday evening.  Initially snow will break out in response to warmer air trying to move in aloft.  The heaviest snow looks to fall overnight into the first part of Tuesday.  Below you can see the center of low pressure close to Binghamton at 1 p.m. Tuesday afternoon.


More agreement is coming into place that our thermal profile will stay below freezing throughout the storm duration.  As you can see from the Skew-T, notice how the temperature (RED) and dewpoint (GREEN) lines stay behind the 0 degree isotherm vertically.  This would indicate an all snow scenario.



As I mentioned earlier, the heaviest snow will likely fall between 6am and 2pm Tuesday.  Below is a forecast radar composite for Tuesday morning.  The ride to work will be a snowy one.  Snowfall accumulations will be plowable for many (6+")   Further East and Southeast in the Finger Lakes, a wintry mix will hold down the snow totals.  We'll have specific snow forecast numbers on News 8 tomorrow evening.





147 comments:

  1. Thank for the new post Scott! Fingers crossed for this prediction to verify!

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  2. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 48 hours. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

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  3. Scott's posting new blog entries and we have a storm to track in the short term. The rightful order has been restored.

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  4. Think it will be an 8-10 inch snowfall for Rochester.

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    Replies
    1. Anon 10:52 -- are you saying 8-10 inches overnight for Rochester?

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  5. heard we could be in for 1-2 feet check josh nichols twitter feed

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    Replies
    1. Below is what appears on JN's twitter feed. So if you live towards the west of the City of Rochester; I think he was speaking of...
      New data supports sizeable #ROC snow Tue-Wed. Just aired this at 11.Think best chance for 12"+ snow is Genesee west.

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  6. What about Newark will we see snow or wintery mix

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  7. In case anyone does want to see a picture of the Polar plunge venue. I took 2 pictures at 9 am as they were preparing the hole in the ice. -11 when I left the house. Car said -4 when I got to the lake at 9. I figure it was about 2 degrees at plunge time. Thankfully it was virtually windless and sunny.

    They did a real nice job with the giant heated tents and handed out towels as you come out of the water. Quite cold but much less extreme than I pictured.

    They say there were 5000 plungers registered. I bet at least 2/3 of that actually plunged. It only took 15 minutes or 20 minutes for all the plungers to go through. I went in up to my neck. I chickened out on putting my head under. It wasn't so much the cold as the ice. It was like walking into a giant brown slushee. The ice pieces scratch you up. But it was fun.

    In case of trolls this is the only comment I'll be making about the plunge. Especially the only comment not from my newly created blogger account.

    Click my screen name to see the two pictures or go here.

    https://app.box.com/s/wl006rpgvo4ptyouh7jnmehxc6ih1wj6

    Here's to hoping Tuesday is a redemption kind of storm.

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  8. Looking at the models this am the storm seems to have inched further east so I think we can move that snow line to the east more with the heaviest right over Rochester into Wayne county. They should put Wayne county under a warning.

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    Replies
    1. How to you think Webster will make out? We got enough over the weekend....

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  9. This morning RC talked of 15+ inches as total for Tuesday.

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  10. Weather folks are all over the map as to snow amounts from Tuesday morning; they range from 3-6; 5-8; 8-12; 4-7. 13 and 8 are saying 3-6, with more expected west of Rochester; while 10 had 10-15. What are other seeing, especially for the City of Rochester. Thanks.

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  11. Love it when JN puts out there words like significant, sizable snow; still working on the numbers. He truly likes to use certain words that make you feel like you need to tune back in to see what he is predicting.

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  12. CCCC what are you seeing for now total tonight and into Tuesday morning.

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  13. Given the high level of uncertainty, this one has a high disappointment probability-- so therefore I'm going to set my expectations low and hopefully will be pleasantly surprised if it meets or exceeds. SNOWDOG you should do the same for your own mental health :)

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  14. RC said 4-8 for tomorrow and MS on 13 has more rain for Rochester. Does anyone really now?

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  15. Looks like latest NAM that just came out gives us 10-14 inches if reading it correctly.

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  16. This storm is a forecasters nightmare. I'm throwing out an 8-14" prediction, but if the storm really wraps up before it begins moving out, it could be more. I'm eager to hear what Scott has to say as he is without question the most accurate when it comes to forecasting snowstorms...

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  17. I still think here in Hamlin we could be centered in the jackpot. 12z NAM looks great for Rochester west. 12 or more look likely.

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  18. Stacey is saying 8-14 through Tuesday evening. Most are saying those to the West of Rochester will see greater amounts. HP another sleepless couple of days for you.

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  19. any lake enhancement with this storm that could boost totals?

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  20. Nothing from KW and I do not think lake enhancement will play a role as it will not be cold enough.

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  21. Now that we will have a storm - waiting for some of the neurotic nit wits on here to start freaking out about a dry slot. I don't even know if that is possible because I don't pretend to know what I am looking at on the models/radar but, I know that the requisite crapping of the pants will ensue as soon as flake 1 falls

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    Replies
    1. Just happy to be in the game for once. I'll be happy with any amount that falls. But pretty please don't be sloppy. I'd even be ok with all rain. I really don't want 6" of mashed potatoes.

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    2. I don't foresee dry slotting being an issue with this set up. Expect totals to be within the forecast range. Hopefully there won't be too much complaining because we are in the exact sweet spot bar some act of God. Time to get out the winter gear :)

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    3. With the weather this past weekend; winter gear has been out and worn often.

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  22. Seems like every futurecast is showing quite a bit of mix and rain working in by the morning. Is this overdone? Models struggling with the temperatures?

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  23. Just looked at the latest nws update. They keep upping the totals. Now says 9 to 18 inches

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    Replies
    1. Anon 1:24 -- if you read the rest of the sentence you would have noticed that it read..."9 to 18 inches over the Northwest portions of the counties..."; which is usually Hamlin, Hilton, Kendall, and along the Lakeshore. It does not mean that all of Monroe County will be getting 9 to 18 inches. Make sure you have the complete statement, not just a piece of it.

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    2. My guess is that the following is implied: something like 14-18" NW of the metro, 9-14" in the metro and 5-9" SE.

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  24. Every ROC area forecaster today:

    https://media.giphy.com/media/17bvpzBFFQ5Xi/giphy.gif

    We're playing with fire in a serious way with that changeover line getting perilously close for several hours tomorrow. Making matters even more complicated is the tremendous rate of precipitation that will be occurring along and just east of it. You're talking maybe a 5-10 mile distance between one town getting plastered with heavy wet snow and another town getting a downpour at the same time. Then there's the possibility of dynamic cooling which the models sometimes don't handle very well. With how much liquid is involved here I wouldn't be shocked if a very small area clocked in with 18+" of 8:1 ratio concrete, most likely somewhere in Wyoming County. Meanwhile our southern Ontario County/eastern Wayne County weenie brethren are left trying to make snow angels in 2-4" of slop while heavy rain attempts to wash it all away.

    Our poor local forecasters have a real nightmare on their hands...

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  25. Which explains why they were all so different at noon!

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  26. KW tweeted 12plusin Rochester with some areas west maybe up to 18inches. Still tough call he says because we are close to the rain line. Wonder what Scott thinks after looing over the latest data?

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  27. Yike. I am confused. The NWS states 12-18 east of Buffalo and 12-18 West of Rochester. It will be a small area that sees 12-18. They are splitting Wayne County down the middle as well. I am in Western Wayne where it will snow, but in central and eastern Wayne it will rain.

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  28. I'll say this much: so far today there hasn't been much of a concerning warm/west trend across the balance of guidance, which kind of tempers the ever looming threat of the dreaded short range NW trend. Some models did get a little warmer this morning/early afternoon but then others got a little colder. And the new Euro ticked slightly east from this morning's 00z run, which already kept Rochester mostly or all snow.

    Personally I'm setting my expectations low and hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Any forecasts in the vicinity of 8-14" or so seem like the way to go at the moment...highest west of ROC...but there's a real possibility of finishing much lower or higher than that range. I'm simply going to try to maintain peace with the possibility of anything and everything going wrong.

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    Replies
    1. I've set my expectations VERY LOW, leaving more room to be pleasantly surprised.
      A

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  29. Anon 1:35, I live in Hamlin, so it applies to me. That condescending, bossy, entitled attitude looks great on you though ;)

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  30. we've seen this a million times before......rain and sleet will keep the numbers down.

    ***********************There will be a missed snow forecast and sleet storm in Rochester in the next 24 hours...........mark it down******************

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  31. Go figure. We finally get a storm threat and it is so complex that no-one can figure it out. LOL

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  32. http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

    smuganimeface.png

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  33. Scott -- tweet....

    @scotthetsko #roc is RIGHT on the snow/mix line. High confidence for heavy snow West but city should get a few hours of mix. He is predicting 4-9" for City, etc. with higher amount West of Rochester. Check out his tweet for the map.

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  34. So with about 6 hours to go before the snow starts we have a storm total consensus of 4-18". Just wonderful.

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  35. Also, important to remember that this is going to be synoptic snow, so even 6-10" of this stuff is going to be that super heavy, back breaking snow, that you'll wish you had a snowblower for!

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  36. We are screwed in the city again with Scott's forecast unreal. Now the west gets more.

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  37. So much for last nights confidence that Rochester will stay all snow.

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  38. Just to throw some more chaos into the mix, the 12z Euro placed the heaviest snow EAST of Rochester. Right across the area that has a flood watch going. Oy >.<

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  39. Bernie Rayno just tweeted: "Update. Believe track will slowly edge east..."

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  40. I'm starting to think there's room for a small east trend myself...surface pressure obs for the storm appear to be verifying slightly weaker and slightly south of the model consensus. Current SPC analysis has it in southern Mississippi while the mesoscale models had it in central/northern Mississippi.

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    1. So the dreaded rain/mix line will move more eastwards, increasing snow totals for central and possibly east?

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    2. There's room for it to happen. Wouldn't commit to the idea just yet though.

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  41. Edge east will keep Rochester all snow then?

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  42. Scott must have looked at all data and thinks heavy stuff west. I will go with the expert and city lucky to get 4 inches.

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  43. Is there a chance for significant freezing rain and an ice storm?

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  44. ITS GOING EAST!!!!!! Ticks far enough east and we ll be out of the Precip shield altogether....and that would of course be fantastic!!!

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    Replies
    1. There's virtually zero chance of a whiff at this point.

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  45. and scott said 4 to 9 for the city, so lucky to get 4 means you are not going with the expert anon 2:56.

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  46. This site just posted an article and pretty confident west is the best spot for significant snow. They would not have posted that if they were not confident.

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  47. It's annoying how some people are already complaining and saying the mets have messed up already. They have to base their numbers on what the models show and that can change so does their numbers. Be real people.

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  48. CCCC is there a similar storm set-up to this one that we could compare?

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    Replies
    1. CCCC posted this analog yesterday: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2016021412&dt=1999030406&HH=-99&map=COSN

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    2. They're similar patterns and that's about it. This one has more temp issues and far less wind.

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    3. Another question CCCC can looking at how the storm is currently tracking/behaving clue us in to where it is going to hit us?

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    4. For sure. The SPC mesoanalysis page is a good place to start:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

      You can click on a region and compare that region's current and past observations to what was modeled for the time. That can yield some hints regarding which way things are likely to trend.

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  49. What does that show because not opening on my computer.

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  50. Us snow plow contractors are sooooo confused. I plow in Canandaigua and am trying to figure out how much and of what.

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  51. In other words, Rochester is going to get screwed again

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    Replies
    1. Not according to Anon 3:50 -- see below.

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  52. Bernie Rayno believes Rochester will see 12"+, according to his latest video: http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snow-and-ice-storm-underway

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    1. So you are saying that Scott is incorrect with his prediction of 4-9 inches of a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, etc; and we should go with Bernie's call of 12+ inches?

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    2. Firstly, I'm no meteorologist. That being said, from my interpretation of what others have said, and what I've seen from my limited knowledge of models... I think most of Monroe county will be over 8", for whatever that's worth to ya ;-)

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  53. Go here and toggle between the -0 and +0 under Trends/Forecast to the right (no need to click):

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18

    What appears for -0 is the current surface pressure analysis, while for +0 it's what the most recent run of the RAP model depicted for the current time. It's rather apparent that the surface low is noticeably south of what the RAP depicted, and south of most other models as well.

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    Replies
    1. is south good or bad?

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    2. If you're rooting for snow vs mix/rain then it's likely a good thing, since it implies a more easterly track once it eventually rounds the bend.

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    3. Who roots for a sloppy mix? My preference is a good snowstorm. But I'll take rain over slop any day.

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  54. I know everyone wants to get a much snow as possibly; but lets keep in mind if it is wet heavy snow, the damage that it can do to roofs, let along people shoveling.

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  55. Don't forget the possibility of power outages and downed tree limbs/power lines, particularly in areas that remain all snow and receive a lot of it.

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  56. KW is predicting 18+ inches for Rochester; what is he seeing that Scott is not?

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    Replies
    1. Didn't see 18+ on his twitter. Tweet says 12-18 city and west:

      https://twitter.com/whec_kwilliams/status/699346350333411328

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    2. 12-18 inches for City of Rochester; while Scott is saying 6-9; that is a big difference.

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  57. Bernie Rayno says big thump heading for WNY in his last video says Rochester will get 12+ and the storm is moving slightly to the east as others have mentioned

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  58. It is interesting that W and Scott have a big difference in what is going to happen. KW said based on recent model data and his experience with pattern recognition leads him to his prediction.

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  59. Scott tweeted this is the second hardest storm he's ever had to deal with. Wonder what the first is?

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    Replies
    1. I'm glad he's back in forecasting shape. Nice to see him in the deep end. If he wanted to ease in he'd have waited until summer.

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    2. Usually Scott stays conservative and ends up being right in my recollection. I'd love the bigger totals to verify but he is usually right so not feeling good about big totals at least in my neck of the woods .

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  60. Remember a few days ago when we weren't sure it would even impact us? Let's be glad we aren't up in the st. Lawrence valley. They are suppose to get .5-1 inch of ice. Back when I was in high school (1998 ish) I had to help my uncle bring a huge generator to my other uncle who runs a dairy farm in Malone. They had a huge ice storm. Farmers were losing milk because they couldn't keep it cold. I don't wish that upon anyone

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  61. http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_08.gif
    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_12.gif

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    Replies
    1. Nice to be in the sweetspot on one of those.

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  62. I think Scott is going to be correct on this and KW is just hoping the city will be all snow. He even showed a computer model that brings a great deal of rain to city and even a little west. He said he is not buying that. Looking at latest information this is going more west on the track. I thinks Scott's low end is more on target for city and points east.

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  63. Disagree...most guidance is a hair colder as of 18z. The RPM had been bringing rain as far west as Buffalo but has recently begun shifting east.

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  64. From Kw:
    Latest RPM model, which was way west with biggest snows over BUF, is coming east and is now aligned with our forecast thinking.

    This remains a fluid situation for #ROC area. Calling for 12-18" City/west; 6-12" Wayne/Finger lakes w/ some mix...all by Tuesday evening

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  65. I just wonder where the mix will end up being. I am on the border of Wayne county and Monroe. I think more of the mix will be east of me.

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    Replies
    1. Probably a circle right over your home will be all mix and rain :)

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  66. Think or hoping? Lol. I feel the same way. Farmington is pretty close to Monroe, Wayne county lines so my forecasts always reflect the fact that in Ontario county but I'm only a few minutes from Macedon and perinton

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  67. Some areas in Pa. are now projecting over a half inch of freezing rain. I thin this storm has a lot of moisture with it.

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  68. I like KW's forecast at 12-18. He also stated that the models have ticked the storm a little further east keeping us all snow. Lets hope.

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  69. Wow GJ on 13 just showed a computer model run that just increased totals to 19 inches in Rochester and said heavier snow starting to drift east to city area. Can that be correct?

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  70. No he is not correct. His forecast made no sense. He showed that and said this is new information and totals went up. Then he showed a map that mirrored Scott's map and that was his forecast. GJ is always confusing in his forecasts.

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  71. I feel like with situations in past we have been down this road before, 10 and 13 have way higher amounts in some cases than ch8. Ch 8 usually ends up being correct. In the case I wish they weren't (sorry Scott). I guess sometimes the truth hurts an we want to believe the higher reports. Maybe they wil pan out this time and Scott an team will up there's?

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  72. Take it with a grain of salt but Tom Nizol on the weather channel has us in the 12-18 range and he said some areas around 20"

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  73. Why would we not believe winter weather expert Tom Nizol? Why is Jim Cantore not here? Where is blizzard guy?

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    Replies
    1. Imagine if Blizzard Guy sleeps through this one. He spends his whole life making on prediction. He sleeps through this one and we get 2 feet.

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  74. Where is CCCC? Thought he would be on often with our first storm looming. I think he is nervous this will be a bust.

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    Replies
    1. *Yeah. This is ridiculous. He hasn't posted in over an hour! I bet they'll dock his pay.*

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    2. Aren't we all nervous it will bust? It's like sitting on the edge of the couch hoping the bills suprise us and make it to play offs lol

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    3. A LOT better chance this storm pans out than the bills in the playoffs. Mets are starting to seem more confident.

      SW

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    4. It does feel like a risky roll of the dice. There's a lot of moisture there. But my gut says it will go warm and mix substantially. And Scott will be right. Again . But there is so much hope. And with such a warm uneventful winter. It feels like we're due for a good storm to balance the snow checkbook a little.

      No one wants to get their hopes up. But there's a chance. It feels high risk/ high reward. And not like a maybe wind will be just right off of the lake kind of chance. It will probably underperform. But it's so tantalizing because there's so much to work with. I keep hoping this will be one of those few that surprise us and dump.

      So I check the blog. As if there is a young to do but wait.

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  75. I think people forget CCCC isn't employed by news 8 lol. It's hard to believe a weather channel based out of Atlanta or a website over a local expert like Scott, although I am hoping those higher totals verify!

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  76. Step 1 - go here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/
    Step 2 - zoom in towards WNY on the map below the graph until a blue dot appears near Rochester
    Step 3 - click the dot
    Step 4 - click "Total-SNO" above the graph (and optionally laugh yourself silly at the insane spread that still exists this close to game time)
    Step 5 - click "dProg/dt (Means of last 4 runs)" on the bottom right of the graph
    Step 6 - ????
    Step 7 - trend = friend

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    Replies
    1. Graph looks like timeframe on the bottom, predicted inches on the left. What are the 4 different MN members meaning? Are these predicted amounts to be added up, or just sampling? Sorry, not much of an expert interpreting, but very interested in this outcome!!

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    2. Those are the mean snowfall totals of the past 4 SREF runs. Under "Members Displayed" it lists the runs in chronological order. The text colors translate to the graph, so it can be seen that the trend for snowfall in this model suite has been upward.

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    3. Got it, that makes sense, thus the trend=friend. Thanks quad C!

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  77. Looks like the latest Hi res Canandian and just out Para Euro blasts us if interpreting it correctly? Is that correct CCCC?

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    Replies
    1. I saw the same model outputs and I really wish I didn't because I'm still trying to keep my hopes at a bare minimum lol

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    2. where would one find these models

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    3. I saw them in the AccuWx forum. Specifically these:

      http://i.imgur.com/a8V43pX.png
      http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=284628

      View at your own peril.

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    4. Thanks for the sites. It would be nice if the entire area got blasted with snow for a change like those maps depict. I really need to go to bed 3 am comes early with a long day ahead, but it is like being a kid on Christmas eve, not happening.

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    5. If that verifies we nearly double our seasonal total.

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  78. https://twitter.com/whec_kwilliams/status/699413723799281664

    "Latest high resolution mesoscale model suggesting snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour for 2 or 3 hours tmrw morning am #ROC area. Wow."

    Oh Kevin you sure do know how to tease my filthy snow fantasies.

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  79. New NAM is slightly colder/east. Scott's going to be pulling that sweet spot eastward tonight methinks.

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    Replies
    1. I think most of us are trying to give it just a little tug.

      Normal people are buying bread and mumbling something about moving.

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  80. Has anyone looked at the radar? There is a shiz load of precipitation coming up from the south. Not sure if that is coming here but if yes it looks large to me but I could be wrong.

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    Replies
    1. That's all going to work northward though the night and grow heavier towards daybreak.

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  81. The Mets said after 2:00am but looks like on radar almost here or am I wrong?

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  82. Nothing new from Scott he must still like his map from 6:00.

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  83. At the risk of TMI...but crazy how these things work out...

    My schedule for tomorrow morning:
    Get up at 430 and finish prepping for 10 am colonoscopy in Henrietta
    Plow driveway
    Bathroom break
    Drive 10 miles to pick up mom to come babysit kids b/c she's afraid to drive in the snow
    Bathroom break
    Drive mom back to Clarendon from Brockport
    Bathroom break
    Plow again if necessary
    Bathroom break
    8am leave Clarendon for Henrietta
    Arrive in Henrietta 930 hopefully?
    Spend the absolute peak of the storm we've all been waiting for all winter long knocked out in a doctors office with a scope up my ass
    Wake up at 12pm first question to doc I'm sure will be "Is it still snowing?"
    1230 wife gets behind the wheel of truck with plow she's only driven once before in her life and drives us back to Clarendon
    Plow our way back into driveway
    Drive mom back home
    Spend the rest of the afternoon eating pizza and reading tallies

    And I'm still rooting for this sloppy little gem to dump on us...uh yeah, I guess I really am a snow freak.

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    Replies
    1. Lol damn sounds like you're in for a fun day.

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    2. I'm really hoping that last gem refers to the storm and not the colonoscopy.

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    3. If the room has a window maybe you can choose to stay awake and watch the snow during the procedure. Then I would definitely call you a snow freak.

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    4. Nothing better than getting anally probed while you watch a snowstorm happen. Usually you don't have help with the probing part either.

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  84. IDK maybe there's some virga happening in that initial slug. Antecedent environment is pretty dry atm.

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  85. GJ 50 minutes ago on 13 website up totals for city to 3-6 tonight and new snow of 9-12 tomorrow with overall totals of 12-18 by tomorrow night.

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  86. Glenn Johnson's updated totals: 10-18" for everyone west of about central Wayne County.

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  87. Any chance it veers too far east and we miss the main slug of moisture? Or is this one starting to look like its in the bag for us?

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    Replies
    1. I don't think that's a concern for anyone outside of the extreme western counties.

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  88. CCCC you think Scott will be bumping up his totals on the 11:00 news?

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  89. I went into work this morning and there were 25 comments on this thread... Looks like a missed a lot. Just reading through everyone's thoughts and looking at the latest guidance, Scott will definitely change his forecast. He will probably wait until the 11pm newscast before revealing it though just to string us along.

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  90. CCCC is it useless to look at the Oz GFS now?

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    Replies
    1. I guess you could look at it to corroborate minor shifts in the hi-res models. Otherwise there's no real added value to looking at it.

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  91. I keep remembering that one Euro run while we had the old post. It spit out large numbers for us and an anon laughed and said throw that out it was crazy. Well maybe not?

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  92. fine to medium size flakes here in Manchester Shortsville area. Snow is approaching moderate I would say. About 1/3 inch in the last 45 minutes to an hour.

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  93. I just checked the weather.com forecast for Henrietta just for kicks. It showed something for tomorrow that I've never seen before on that site for anywhere that I've lived: "Snow accumulation of a foot or more." That's something I've seen for the coastal cities in the face of huge nor'easters, but never once for my location. That's in reference to a single 12 hour period tomorrow by the way, not the entire storm. Needless to say, I'm not buying it.

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