Is Winter Over?
Written by: Stacey Pensgen
Scott pulled some winter statistics together, showing the 2015-2016 Rochester winter season being the 2nd least snowiest since the 1950s. We've recorded just over 51" of snow this season. With the taste of Spring (and even summer) the last few days, many people are wondering if that's it for winter? I'm going with no. It's WNY, after all!
Yes, it's more than a week away, but the warm pattern looks to flip flop and turn cooler. GFS is showing a deep cut-off low developing by late next week, keeping us unsettled and a bit cool.
Sweet! We are getting a blizzard next week!
ReplyDeleteIt's only a snowball's chance.
DeleteI like winter. I like spring. I don't like going back and forth. The mud season is by far my least favorite.
JN mentioned the same potential. Bring it on.
ReplyDeleteI wonder when the watches and warnings will be up? Maybe by Sunday night??
ReplyDeleteWhere's the guy that declared winter is over except for a few wet flakes? You know the old saying. Those who don't learn from past history are doomed to repeat it.
ReplyDeleteNot sure where there is a winter storm on the models. Severe weather storm yes but not winter storm. There will not be one snow flake until next winter.
ReplyDeleteOh there's one flake for sure.
DeleteDidn't CCCC predict a major blizzard next week? He was totally right again!
ReplyDeleteAgain can someone enlighten me on where they say a potential winter storm on the models for late next week? The 7 day on news 10 has us in the high 50s late next week? Even the great CCCC has not mentioned any winter storm possibility.
ReplyDeleteAre we getting a blizzard next week?
ReplyDeleteDon't be ridiculous
ReplyDeleteStacey, thanks for your post! I am def one of the weirdos hoping for one last hurrah.
ReplyDeleteSome forget, some of our biggest snowstorms have happened in mid or late March. Great blog post! Thanks
Is there going to be a blizzard next week?
ReplyDeleteCan anyone shed a serious light about next weekend. GJ said on his 11 weather cast that a possible winter storm could develop on the coast? I have heard nothing else from anyone except Stacey in this new post. Anyone have thoughts on this?
ReplyDeleteLet's settle down a little. She was just mentioning the potential not making a forecast. I for one don't want snow now. Id just be a kick in the nuggets.
ReplyDeleteNext week looks beautiful. Not. Another gloomy rainy week. I love spring in Rochester. Not.
ReplyDeleteJN had nothing just now on his 6:00 weather. High almost 50 next Saturday. Looks like I am going to be right and win the CCCC trophy not another flake this winter.
ReplyDeleteNope--- it will snow, even if a trace, in later March or April. You will be wrong.
DeleteCCCC what are those percentages now for more snow? Looks like above average temperatures and no snow the next 10-14 days. That takes us to around the 27th which means winter over. Not one snow flake the rest of winter. A great against the odds prediction looks spot on. Perhaps I am RMA.
ReplyDeleteTo say there will not be another snowflake is ridiculous. This is Rochester. The last 10 days of March look colder than normal. It will snow again.
ReplyDeleteIt will snow again (wet flakes or even trace +) in late March or April 2016.... that is a virtual guarantee.
ReplyDeleteSo we will are looking at a Winter Storm Watch/Warning for next week? When do folks see Watch/Warnings going up, and how much snow is going to be predicted. Lets keep in mind that Spring Break for many kids/families is coming up. Do people need to relook at their travel plans if we are talking towards the end of March? Please WHERE IS CCCC in all of this?
ReplyDeleteRelook at travel plans? Is this really a serious question?
DeleteI read this comment 3 times and I still can't find anything serious about it.
DeleteWhere is CCCC? I am worried about him or maybe he knows it is over.
ReplyDeleteModels are showing something around the 20th and 21st. That is what the Mets are talking about,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016031312/jma_z500_mslp_us_9.png
Snowdog stop buying into something a week away especially in late March. Plus anything would be up in Maine area not us.
ReplyDeleteI disagree. Did you look at the links I provided. It is hardly in Maine.
DeleteAlso, I never said I was buying into anything. The models are just showing something and have been consistent showing a storm.
DeleteHey anon that has continued to guarantee not another flake this season, please identify your claim with a name so you can take credit for being right.
ReplyDeleteOkay you broke me down and my real name is CCCC. I have been trying to lay low but do believe there will not be one more flake until at least October.
ReplyDeleteNo effort at all. You get an F.
DeleteI'm just starting to catch up on weather related things after a weekend of shenanigans downstate, but my opinion on late month remains thoroughly unchanged...I still believe we're going to get one more snowfall before the month is up. Still looks below average for at least a few days starting around the 21st, then the GEFS and GEPS diverge with the former staying near seasonable while the latter goes back above average.
ReplyDeleteFolks as you have noticed the great CCCC has made no mention of a possible snow storm or even possible flakes. Now that is interesting.
ReplyDeleteThere's definitely a signal in the ensembles for an eastern storm early next week. The trough position plus west Atlantic ridge both argue for yet another inland tracking system, but the return of the west coast ridge argues against a cutter to MSP. First guess is that we'll be riding the p-type line rather than worrying about a miss, should a storm actually develop. After that time period it looks just cold enough for any lingering precip to be in the form of snow.
ReplyDeleteThe no more snow Anon is in trouble.
ReplyDeleteThink enough could fall to make an anonimable snow man?
DeleteHe was in trouble the moment he sided with the scenario that has about a 0.1% chance of happening.
DeleteI stand by my statement and you have maybe a prater a week from now. When that does not materialize then I am home free with no snow flakes the rest of winter.
ReplyDeleteReminder that we've failed to record at least a trace of snowfall in April just once in over 140 years of recorded climo. And actually I do have a prater, he's right here:
Deletehttp://themajors.net/detroit/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Matt-Prater-Super-Bowl-XLVIII-Seattle-Seahawks-ivwgix3c1Gml.jpg
Typo prayer smarta--
ReplyDeleteNo you definitely meant to type prater, because you assumed that I didn't have one in my possession. Well I do so neener neener.
DeleteWith all this talk of a possible east coast storm do we think Blizzard Guy will make an appearance?
ReplyDeleteThe Blizzard Guy will make a return. Mark it down.
ReplyDeleteDo you think we could get 18-20", which will bring our snow fall total to over 70" for the year?
ReplyDeleteYou have lost your mind.
DeleteNo storm maybe for way up north and east. Models not looking good.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS and others gives us a snowstorm. Not sure what you are looking at.
ReplyDeleteSense of the amount of snow yet? Just want to know if we will close the gap as to where we are currently with total snow fall and what has been predicted. I don't think we can close the gap, but will we come close?
DeleteDo you think any Advisories, Watches, or Warnings will be issued? if so, when.
DeleteGet the snow shovels back out.
ReplyDeleteModels have no storm today so put this to rest.
ReplyDeleteMatt today mentioned possible storm for Sunday. I wonder (IF) it pans out how much we could be be talking about?
ReplyDeleteTHERE WILL BE A DUSTING OF WET SNOW IN THE FLOWER CITY!!!!!!! MARK IT DOWN!!!!
ReplyDeleteIs this Blizzard Guy?
DeleteI'm surprised there are no watches or warnings up for this Thursday's blizzard.
ReplyDeleteAnon -- there has been no mention about a Blizzard or Winter Storm Advisory/Watch/Warning for Thursday. What are you seeing and where.
DeleteIt's all over this forum! Total blizzard coming!
DeleteWhere's "No More Flakes Guy?" Looking up recipes on how to prepare crow?
ReplyDeleteSnow expected on Friday and Sunday/Monday -- Winter is not done with us yet. Let hope that we get 5-8 inches each day, and then we will be able to close the gap of where we should be for snow fall total for this winter. plus it will be an opportunity for both the City and County Officials to put their "NEW" Winter Storm plans into place, and see if they work this time.
ReplyDeleteLol why are people talking about blizzard warnings and huge snow totals this far out? Stop acting dumb.
ReplyDeleteCCCC all of these posters are annoying with their jokes. Can you please be serious and let us know is it looking like a possible storm this weekend?
ReplyDeleteEnsemble spread is still through the roof, as one might expect:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016031412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_27.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016031412/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_27.png
WPC surface for Days 6 and 7:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mhwbg_conus.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif
That scenario verbatim is probably light rain to light snow for us, with heavy snowfall across ENY into NW NE.
KW does not seem to think storm at this point maybe a few flakes.
ReplyDeleteBusted again. Why do you keep making things up? CCCC posted exactly what KW said.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/whec_kwilliams/status/709475619734687744
ReplyDelete"Believe that at some pt between this Sunday & nxt Wednesday,ground will be at least briefly covered in snow. Flurries also poss Fri"
Models this Am show no storm at all. Ok by me.
ReplyDeleteStorm has disappeared from all models. Spring has sprung and we as I predicted will not get another flake.
ReplyDeleteStorm or not there will be more flakes. Admit defeat.
Delete"Believe that at some pt between this Sunday & nxt Wednesday,ground will be at least briefly covered in snow. Flurries also poss Fri"
ReplyDeleteSo when do you think watches and warnings will be up for the blizzard coming???
This is interesting from the NWS.....hope it doesn't last too far into April....
ReplyDeleteLOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT HAS
UNFOLDED OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX AND THE ASSOCIATED
STRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THIS MAJOR CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL
CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL FEED DOWN INTO THE TROPOSPHERE WITH HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODIC INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH AND POSSIBLY EARLY
APRIL. THIS LATE IN THE SEASON THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LOCK INTO
PLACE...BUT THE PATTERN EVOLUTION DOES SUPPORT SEVERAL INTERLUDES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
Super awesome that we finally get our SSW just in time for baseball season -_-
DeleteWe may get dusted with some light snow on Friday, right before the time period for our storm of interest. Speaking of that storm...yes, the model trends overnight were towards a weaker and more suppressed system. Numerous times in the the past we've seen this happen, only for a stronger and more northerly idea to come back after sampling. Will that happen again this time? Who knows. Is this thing still worth monitoring? You bet your bottom dollar it is. Still a little more than a day or so before sampling gives us some additional hints on what to expect.
ReplyDeleteThe storm idea is dead please stop CCCC. You are throwing out more hope to get people to read this blog. I am really starting to think you are KWs nephew.
ReplyDeleteYeah dude I'm just spewing nonsense so that the people who are already reading the blog will read the blog. And I totally have incentive to get people to read the blog that I'm not beholden to in any way and make zero profit off of. And not dismissing every storm threat means I'm related to Kevin Williams.
DeletePlease seek mental help, kthxbai
So CCCC is saying there WILL be a blizzard this weekend. Thanks for letting us know! I'll start planning accordingly.
DeleteOkay so please make a prediction then. Storm yes or no? If yes significant or just a nuisance 2 inches or so? Just asking based on your current knowledge of the data.
ReplyDeleteToo early to call. Still a very large ensemble spread.
DeleteI'll just go ahead and type out the rest of the conversation while I'm here:
ReplyDeleteAnon: Once again you are dodging the issue I'm on the record yadda yadda no more snow something something winter is over.
Me: ur dum lol
And that'll be it until tonight or tomorrow, when the quasi-daily cycle of stupid will repeat itself.
Scott's post says most likely scenario is storm misses us east so winter is over.
ReplyDeletePlease sign your prediction with your name so you can take credit for it when you are right!
DeleteOkay Scott H. read the report on website.
DeleteAny storm on a model is way east of us so not sure why CCCC says it is early to make a prediction that we get a few flakes. R'MA has done so and that means we are not getting a storm.
ReplyDeleteKW on his broadcast says storm a miss he was pretty confident and you know what that means. No storm and not even any flakes.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure how anyone can be definitive on the track of this weekend storm. I say this because this winter has been nuts with tracks and more importantly the storm has not even been sampled yet. I would think Thursday would give us more definitive answers. The cold air will be in place and I think storm will be strong so could be a major one if track is right imo.
ReplyDeleteIn what universe does "most likely a miss" mean "definitely a miss?" Oh right, the anon universe where everything works in absolutes and there are no probabilities between 0% and 100%. We aren't going to need that storm to get flakes anyway, we have a shot at some light snow with the frontal passage on Friday. Remember, if it flurries for just five lousy minutes at the airport then it will go down as a trace of snow. And it isn't like we can't get some lake flakes behind the storm as it departs.
ReplyDeleteSounds like CCCC has thrown in the storm towel already.
ReplyDeleteSounds like you didn't actually understand what I typed.
Delete"Lake flakes behind the storm as it departs" which I think means we get only flakes no storm? Spell it out Mr. Weather.
ReplyDeleteIt was in response to this from 5:39 this afternoon:
Delete"No storm and not even any flakes."
Even IF...IF IF IF...we don't get hit by the storm, we can still get cold enough air filtering in that some lake flakes occur. I have no idea how that could translate to "only flakes no storm." Unless you're reading too deeply into what I say, or pretending to be dumb.
CCCC. You take trolls way to seriously. They're like wild animals. You keep feeding them so the keep coming back.
ReplyDeleteBut I like animals :<
DeleteWhy do you guys even listen to CCCC? The guy is a loser who prolly sits in his studio apartment wishing he'd went to school for meteorology. I mean come on, all the guy does is copy things from NOAA's forecast discussion and then cast it off like its his own words or pretends he knows what he's talking about...News Flash...he doesn't!! Quit worshipping the guy lmao. Besides, he got OWNED by Stacey a few weeks ago if I remember correctly.. The guy is almost ALWAYS wrong when he makes a prediction!
ReplyDeleteWere you touching yourself in naughty ways while you typed this out? I feel like you were.
DeleteAt least CCCC understands meteorology. You know nothing other than to throw out random predictions based on nothing but a wild guess. CCCC has always been a class act and and makes this blog interesting. You are only here to cause problems. If you don't like what CCCC says then go away. We won't miss you.
DeleteCCCC: "Anon do u diddle urself to ur own posts lol"
DeleteAnon: "CCCC is a class act"
That's nice and all but the juxtaposition here is pretty hilarious.
Wow, it is starting to sound like the Republican debate in here. " My dad is bigger than your dad." "I know you are what am I.". I think we all need this winter season to end. Goodbye
ReplyDeleteNext we will hear "Little Snowdog" and "Crazy CCCC"
DeleteIt's simply what happens when you let the special needs children have access to the internet.
DeleteWow..."special needs children"? You're a disgrace for a human being. I bet you wouldn't say that to a teacher who works with special needs children. But then again as arrogant as you are you probably would. How pathetic.
DeleteSorry but as someone who works with an agency which provides services to people with disabilities -- am deeply offended by your comment.
DeleteIf I can handle being called a loser who lives alone regretting his life then you can both handle me being obscene. Here's a nice little two part truth bomb:
Delete-Words are only offensive if you allow them to be.
-The offensiveness/lack thereof in someone's speech is a poor indicator of their real attitudes.
Not going to get into a word battle with you CCCC; but do have to say as to your two comments (11:23 and 4:15); have lost a little bit of respect for you.
DeleteOvernight models say no storm for us. Yes!
ReplyDeleteOdds are definitely way down that's for sure. Less phasing of streams + stronger ridge out west has been the trend lately, hence the east shift.
ReplyDeleteIt is all over we have no chance at a storm.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't rule out a graze job...chances of a direct hit are very slim at this point though. All that really matters here is that Mr. No More Flakes will be eating frosted crow in 36 hours according to Stacey.
ReplyDeleteI would not rule this storm out yet and it being more than a graze job.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it can trend far enough west for a direct hit.
ReplyDeleteThunder and Lighting Storm in March -- who would have thought?
ReplyDeleteWOW have to say that the trolls are truly pushing some buttons today on the Blog. All need to take a step back, breath, and truly move on!
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/b2yNtH0.gif
DeleteNo storm for us all mets say way far east of us but it will be a big storm. Of course we will miss the final storm of the year bc that would cap off this great snowy winter.
ReplyDeleteWhatever, at least we had a big storm earlier in the winter. I'd at least like to see this one trend favorably for someone between south central NY and NNE, their run of bad luck this winter has been virtually unprecedented. We've actually had it pretty good compared to them, especially since our lone storm basically threaded the needle.
ReplyDeleteCCCC glass always half full guy. This winter sucked face it.
ReplyDelete"We've actually had it pretty good **compared to them** "
DeleteYes, compared to our own snowfall averages this winter has been a turd sandwich with a side of diarrhea. That really shouldn't need to be stated even one time since we can all see it plain as day. But for interior areas east of here this winter has been an unmitigated disaster show, which ties into my larger point. We could easily have it as bad as them if not for the one stroke of luck that we managed in February.
Agree... If we didn't have that big storm, the totals would have been ridiculous for this winter. I know they are now, but even more so.
ReplyDeleteTBH, even as a snow lover I'd take a winter like this one over 100" of nuisance car toppers 9 times out of 10. I know our resident plow drivers/snowmobilers/winter sports enthusiasts would disagree though.
ReplyDeleteSome interesting developments with our coastal storm today. Seems the GFS and GGEM want to hang onto some semblance of a parent low north and west of the coastal, which would keep us in the game for some light snow early next week. The GGEM is particularly aggressive in maintaining the parent, but it's probably out to lunch. Additional model runs will tell us whether this is a new trend or merely a head fake.
ReplyDeleteOf course our resident anonstradumbass probably already knows the answer, so it would be appreciated if he keeps the spoilers to a minimum :P
Deleteanonstradumbass...lol
DeleteSo what happened to the blizzard everyone was saying was going to happen today??
ReplyDeleteOh wait! Where's no more flakes guy? Still learning how to prepare crow?
ReplyDelete[insert gotcha statement here]
ReplyDeleteHow pathetic all of you children are on this blog. Still no snow but you are excited and in a gotcha stage over a few flakes coming. Just shows what a pathetic winter this has been. You are proven the anon's point by acting like little brats. He was the one who said we nay set a record for low snowfall. Like you said CCCC if no lucky February thread the needle storm he would have been close to his 35 inch prediction. I would be careful to not brag and sound like a little spoiled b---ch.
ReplyDeleteNope wrong again! It was you that made the idiotic prediction of "not another flake till at least October." Enjoy the crow!
DeleteHave you seen a flurry in Rochester yet Anon 8:33? No you have not you dodo head.
ReplyDeleteWe will see who's the dodo head before the weekend is over.
DeleteI bet dodo tastes better than crow.
ReplyDeleteAt least someone is willing to take a stance one way or the other. Some ride the fence(CCCC) or perhaps ride the pole is a better way to say it.
ReplyDeleteI've had a stance for awhile, and it's that we're very likely to receive some more snow before the end of April. Playing the odds is always better than making bold guarantees with no evidence, especially when those guarantees go against strong odds. And I'm not a fan of riding pole but there is absolutely nothing wrong with it.
ReplyDeleteBut you ARE a fan of making jokes about children with special needs right? Poor choice of words slob..
DeleteAll of the one joke that I made...lol
DeleteDodo head.. lol
ReplyDeleteYou are a sick person anon 7:29. Because you need help you just don't realize you have this problem. Trust us. You need help.
ReplyDeleteStill waiting for that first snowflake to arrive.
ReplyDeleteWell well--- it's snowing now. Mr. "Not Another Flake till October" has been proven wrong as predicted by all the "smart money."
DeleteEnjoy the crow!
Really well not where I am if Rochester does not record an official trace then I will eat steak thank you.
ReplyDeleteNope you didn't say a trace. Here are your words many different times. This is only a partial extract.
DeleteMarch 13, 2016 at 6:28 PM - "there will not be one more flake until at least October."
March 11, 2016 at 3:02 PM - "there will not be one snow flake until next winter."
March 12, 2016 at 6:31 PM - "Looks like I am going to be right and win the CCCC trophy not another flake this winter."
March 13, 2016 at 9:45 AM - "Not one snow flake the rest of winter."
What's the latest on the East Coast storm this weekend? I know it's pretty certain that its impact on us will be minimal, but who is in the bullseye, and how much could they potentially be getting? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteStill a lot of uncertainty from what I can tell at a glance. If the GFS/NAM have their way then it will be a minor snowfall near the coast, but if the Euro/GGEM verify then it will be more significant (i.e. 6+").
DeleteYou lose anon:
ReplyDeleteSNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY T
That's from today's climo report. No plastic trophy for you.
Well I did not get any snow at all so I am still alive.
DeleteYou can't just change the rules after the fact. You set the terms yourself: "we won't see a single flake until November." We got flakes today. It's over.
DeleteI did not get any flakes so it is not over.
DeleteDude. You were wrong. Just admit it. Your backyard isn't the center of the universe anyway.
DeleteI got snow at my house. You lose anon 6:30. It's over.
DeleteStill not one flake on the east side.
DeleteEast side of what? Your head in your azz? It snowed on the east side. You lose, now slide back beneath the manhole cover you whence came.
DeleteStill not any snow flakes today in the city. Game is still on despite the feeble attempts by others on this blog. I believe CCCC and a couple other not bright Anons said wait until Friday you will be eating crow like we were getting a few inches worth of snow.
DeleteDon't try and weasel out of this. You were the one who said not one more snow flake. Everyone knows it snowed yesterday. Don't start with the few inches. Nobody gauramteed that. You and you alone claimed not one flake would fall.
DeleteAlso who /bustedbracket/ here?
ReplyDeleteOther than Michigan St I'm actually not doing bad.
ReplyDeleteMichigan State was my pick to win the whole thing lol. Just a crazy tournament so far even by March Madness standards, especially those final two games last night.
DeleteOk it's official the airport weather station recorded a trace of snow on Friday. Last I heard that's where official records are kept and not in someone's back yard.
ReplyDeleteSeriously since when this this blog turning in a pissing contest, and the rest of us are getting wet. Everyone needs to take a step back, read what you are writing about each other, think, and grow up. You are adult, stop acting like 5-year-old in the sandbox that cannot play nice together.
ReplyDeleteWhat's wrong with a pissing contest? That's what the Republican debates are.
DeleteMAKE BLOGSPOT GREAT AGAIN
DeleteIt's all Obama's fault.
ReplyDeleteStill feels weird to have broad daylight well after 6. Cold out there but the early spring sun angle makes it very tolerable.
ReplyDelete