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Saturday, March 19

Tricky Forecast Next Week

From highs in the 70s early in the month to the seasons first thunderstorm last week to cold air this weekend, we've seen some wild swings in the weather the past few weeks and it looks like this changeable pattern will continue into next week.

The large scale pattern will feature a southwest flow aloft from the Plains into the Northeast. This will send a series of disturbances and low pressure systems into the region with several rounds of precipitation through next week.

A stationary front will waver back and forth across the region from Tuesday through Thursday making for a very tough temperature forecast. South of the front, temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s but north of this boundary, highs will struggle to climb out of the 30s.

Check out the temperature forecast from the ECMWF model Thursday afternoon. Notice the tight temperature gradient from north to south across the region.



This also makes for a tricky precipitation type forecast. North of the front, a mix of rain and snow can be expected but south, rain showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms could occur.

Expect drastic changes in the forecast over the next few days depending on exactly where this front ends up.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

102 comments:

  1. Yeah winter is over and we have not had any snow the last few weeks. The worst snow winter in many years. Just as I predicted back in December one of our lowest snow falls in history.

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  2. Something something broken clock yadda yadda blind squirrel. Also it snowed on Friday.

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  3. I did not see a flurry but if that is what you are going to use to justify then so be it. I also know you and the others were all over Friday and today for at least a few inches. So you were way off and I stand by we have not and will not get another snow flake until October at the earliest. But if you to go by a flurry you saw Friday as you "win" then go ahead. I think that is a bit soft since you posted those astronomical odds against me saying not one more flake weeks ago.

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    Replies
    1. Go find the exact post where I said we were getting a few inches on Friday, because I don't remember saying that at all.

      Yes, I'm going by a flurry on Friday as a loss for you. "We will not get one more flake until November." Those were the terms stated by you over and over in plain black text, every single day for two weeks. But I guess none of that matters since you're just going to keep shifting the goalposts and making excuses. Pretty sad that you need to cheat to win a dumb game when you're the only one playing.

      Delete
  4. Am I really the only one playing? Plus I did not get any snow flakes and neither did the city so how can you declare you saw flakes and you win? And really can you post the statistics of the odds you said there would be snow and that was at least an inch from when I made my declaration until April. You have been even beating the high odds of measurable snow in April. Do you want to state we will get at least an inch in April?

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  5. I was in the city watching a basketball game and it was certainly snowing. Stop trying weasel out of your original prediction.

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  6. Speaking of weasels Anon 8:43. Were you not the one who posted, at the airport the official recording system, they recorded a trace Friday? Wrong.

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  7. Saw it in the D&C on Saturday. Care to check? Frankly that doesn't matter because you said not one flake. it snowed downtown on Friday. I was there. Last I heard that's in the city.

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  8. Who really cares whether it snowed or not on Friday. You all need to get a life or a job.

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    Replies
    1. It's not really about whether or not it snowed. It's about one person who decided to rip another blogger because he was only posting what forecast models were predicting. Nobody including myself had a problem with this and in fact most people enjoyed it. At no time did CCCC ever boast that he knew more than anyone else. I know he's a big boy and can handle himself. I just feel that everyone posted on this blog in good spirit until this one individual tried to turn it into something else. You don't need to get a job to know this. Besides I have too many jobs.

      Delete
  9. I'm sorry this winter has been so lackluster* people argue about the viability of a snow flake in mid march.

    *barring one blockbuster. It was a memorable one.

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    Replies
    1. 2 min after I wrote this it started flurrying out my window.

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  10. Line of light snow flakes passing over Monroe County and city of Rochester.

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  11. I snow the snow and admit I was wrong.

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  12. Interesting forecast challenges this week with the possibility of a stalled front over the area. Could be anything from rain to ice to snow and temperatures from the 30's to 60's.

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  13. Be careful out there -- snow has started, with wind picking up, visibility is down and road are wet and slick.

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  14. What a cruel joke this would be:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032106/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_12.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016032100/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_12.png

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    Replies
    1. Hence why late March and a good portion of April are the most disgusting months of our year. Winter is done and we're stuck in this limbo waiting for decent weather to arrive.

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    2. Now watch it drag on through all of April before transitioning directly into 5 straight months of record heat and humidity. Because why not.

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    3. What do those show CCCC?

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    4. No kidding cccc. It has snowed in May so why not in this crazy year!

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    5. "Hence why late March and a good portion of April are the most disgusting months of our year"

      Now imagine living somewhere this lasts from Dec to Feb.

      Delete
    6. You mean like a cold rain from Feb to Dec? I'm sure like me, you're glad we generally have snow instead. I couldn't live anywhere that it rained often in the winter.

      Delete
  15. A light dusting is now on the grass.

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  16. Worried about freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Is there a concern for an ice storm?

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  17. Any update on the weather for midweek? It just says unsettled what does that mean? Will freezing rain and ice be a concern for Rochester?

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    Replies
    1. Unsettled means that don't know.

      Delete
  18. I bet CCCC is the one making the post trashing him. He does disappear for a while, so maybe it's his alter-ego???

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    Replies
    1. Are you suggesting he should be talking to someone while laying on a couch?

      Delete
    2. I don't necessarily disagree with 12:01, but not for the reasons mentioned above him :P

      Typically I disappear for one or more of these reasons:

      -I'm visiting family/friends out of town.
      -I'm immersed in other activities.
      -Nothing interesting is happening on the blog or in the world of weather.

      I will never disappear for these reasons:

      -Being "chased away" like I've seen gleefully speculated on occasion by one or two people. I'm way too obstinate to allow that to happen.
      -Switching to anonymous or a different name. There's no real motive for me to do that, plus I'm fairly certain that I'd fail at concealing my identity anyway.

      Right now there's just nothing interesting happening in weather. Several days of cold rain...who on earth wants to talk about that? Literally no one.

      Delete
    3. So the official CCCC prediction is no more flakes until October?

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    4. I'm not going to legitimize that nonsense again.

      Delete
  19. KW says first week of April will be very cold and possibly wintery. It figures.

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  20. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032212/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_12.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016032212/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_12.png

    :/

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  21. CCCC can you please explain what those show?

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    Replies
    1. They show furnaces running from the midwest to the east coast during the first week of April

      Delete
  22. So KW did say the opposite of what CCCC posted?

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    Replies
    1. Furnaces running like the one in your house. We won't be opening windows for the warm spring air if those forecasts are correct.

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    2. It's going to be colder than normal-- Possibly for the entire month of April and even worse into May. Ugh! Regardless your furnaces would run even at normal temps in April and they will be running more than normal.

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    3. I'm not going to bite on the below normal as far as the eye can see. There have been at least two occasions this winter where we thought the cold was coming and locking in. What ended up happening was a few days of cold and then moderation to a little above average. I'm betting a 5 day cool spell and then at least average to start April.

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    4. I hope you're right Anon 1128. But I'm basing my 857 post on the fact that the long range indicators are showing colder than average through a good portion of April and early May. While normally these long range forecasts are fairly inaccurate, my belief is that mother nature likes to even things out over time. So given the fairly moderate winter, it would not surprise me that a cool spring will be experienced to even things out. This only lends some credence to those longer range forecasts--- my wacky theory at least :)

      I'd love to be regularly enjoying mid 50s by mid April and 60s by later April, but I fear I may have to temper expectations.

      Delete
  23. We are very fortunate that this storm is cutting to the west, this would have been a prime setup some serious ice...

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  24. So Weatherguy we are safe in WNY in regards to no serious ice?

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  25. The impression I'm under is that there may be enough ice to create slick travel late tonight, but that's during a time with very little travel anyway.

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    Replies
    1. So your official response is that you think we will have a blizzard tonight?
      I'm kidding. That's what it seems to look like assuming the projected temps stick to what they currently say.

      Delete
  26. File this under "polishing a turd" but yesterday's 0.6" of snowfall at KROC has pushed this winter's snowfall out of the all time bottom 10.

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    Replies
    1. LOL--- almost made me spit out my drink!

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  27. KW just said on forecast that the 1st week of April looks very cold and potentially wintery? Is that true CCCC?

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    Replies
    1. If so that is why people vacation some place warm and sunny during the month of April. We all know that it is quite possible to have snow in April. So just hold on and continue to count the days til May/June

      Delete
  28. Jim Cantore is echoing what KW has been saying for awhile in regards to a cold early April.

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  29. I see nothing in long range models that shows real cold and any winter storm threats for WNY?

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    Replies
    1. Not saying any winter storms, just colder than normal. I'm sure if it's cold there is the risk of a bit of snow.

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  30. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...WE MAY BE SEEING A RATHER OMINOUS PATTERN
    SHIFT DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN
    REMARKABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DREADED CROSS-
    POLAR FLOW OUT OF SIBERIA THAT WILL DIRECT A SOLID SHOT OF POLAR AIR
    ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AND DIRECTLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
    THE POLAR VORTEX SETTING UP SHOP SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY BY NEXT
    SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT NEAR-RECORD
    COLD NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
    SNOW...HOWEVER IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THIS IS VERY FAR OUT AT THIS
    POINT AND GUIDANCE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A SIGNIFICANT GRAIN OF SALT.
    NONETHELESS...THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
    DAYS.

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    Replies
    1. Hence why I hate April and late March as well. Mother nature is going to even the score unforunately :(

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    2. Why assume we need to pay for this winter? How do you know this winter wasn't payback for last winter?

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    3. Weatherguy if this did pan out for next weekend and the first week of April what are we talking about in terms of near record temperatures?

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    4. Anon 549, I think last winter is too long ago for payback now. Last winter came to a fairly abrupt end and we had a decent spring. The decent spring of last year was the payback for the harsh winter.

      Hope I'm wrong about this year, but I'm mentally preparing for a long sucky spring.

      Delete
    5. Weather Guy -- when do you see Winter Weather/Storm Advisories, Watches, Warnings begin to go up? Several people will be traveling back home from Easter/Spring Break, and want to plan to next weekend.

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  31. I think it might very well be that we get a Winter Storm in April with significant snow fall totals based on what Weather Guy has posted. Oh well, it would be nice to end the season with one last shot of winter. Who needs spring flowers anyways; less weeds to pull up.

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  32. Judah Cohen right now:

    http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/i_told_you_so_stephen_colbert.gif

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  33. What is that show CCCC temps in the teens if it verifies?

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  34. There will be a blizzard within The Flower City within the next 12 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Blizzard guy we have missed you. Maybe we will get the same type of 1st Day of Spring Blizzard that Colorado just experienced. Several feet of snow, wind, etc. Wonderful way to end the winter season. Blizzard here it comes!!!!!!!

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    2. Hey will that mean I can expense by vacation by several days?

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    3. Hey Anon 12:04 - if you can get away with it; go for it.

      Delete
  35. "THE RESULT COULD BE A NUMBER OF SCENARIOS...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEING ONE OF THEM...CLEARLY WITHOUT ANY CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION THIS FAR OUT. OTHER SCENARIOS COULD BE JUST PASSING OUT-OF-SEASON SNOW SHOWERS. ONE THING THAT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKELY IS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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  36. Blizzard Guy is smoking something that is for sure. Maybe some snow but do not ever remember a blizzard in April in WNY.

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  37. Any update on the cold potential next weekend?

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  38. Yeah NBD a little cold for a day or 2 that is it and no snow.

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  39. "LOOKING AHEAD AT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL...A NEAR RECORD ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PER NAEFS CLIMO) WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL AID IN THE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A NEAR RECORD ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY TROUGH (PER NAEFS CLIMO). THE RESULT WILL BE MUCH COLDER... POLAR SOURCED... AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOULD CURRENT FORECAST 850MB & 925MB TEMPERATURES VERIFY (850MB: -- 20C EC / -20C GFS & 925MB: -14C EC / -14C GFS ) THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD COLD VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BUFFALO. DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BE HELD IN THE 20S WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS. BESIDES THE COLD AIR...THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AS LAKE TEMPS ARE ALREADY PUSHING 40F... THUS LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WOULD BE LARGE IN SUCH A COLD AIRMASS. AT THE LEAST... EXPECT SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    So potentially near record cold with snow showers/lake effect.

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    Replies
    1. Hmmmm. I remember a similar setup after a pretty putrid winter in 2008. I lived in Sodus Point at that time. We ended up with 10" of snow on April 8, if IIRC.

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    2. So Chris you think that it is possible we could see 6+ inches of snow this weekend into next week?

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    3. I am not much of a model reader...I am sure there will be plenty of commentary from others regarding the snow potential this weekend. It will all depend upon wind direction, wind shear, speed, etc. Lake effect is difficult to predict this far out.

      Delete
  40. With the "record" cold which is coming out way for this upcoming weekend; feels like it will be the last round of the polar votex before it makes it way out for the season. Sort of like once last good by. Do you think there is a possibility that we might get the snow falls which is being experienced in the west, mid-west this last weekend. If we do, that will bring our final snow totals to close to 70". At this point all keep talking about the cold, the likes of which (according to JN) have not been seen in at least 10 years or more.

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  41. It's cute how much y'all are rooting for some big snows. The bottom line is there will below average temps this weekend. Will we get some snow? Maybe, but the likelihood of anything significant is pretty slim at this point. Don't get your hopes up.

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  42. You are correct Anon 12:48. This is not even worth talking about. A little below normal temps with no snow it is NBD.

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  43. 1-3+ inches of snow is expected Saturday, with wind gust of 40+ mph and now sure how much on Sunday. So there will be snow. Plus Blizzard Guy is predicting a blizzard for the Flower City -- look at what they are getting in the mid-west and west right now. It is possible.

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  44. Oh, it's possible. Is it going to happen? No. The storm system that went through Colorado and the midwest had the same track that another storm like that would have. We are on the warmer side of it. Either way, a storm like that isn't coming anyway. We'll get a coating at best over the entire weekend.

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    Replies
    1. "Oh, it's possible. Is it going to happen? No."

      So it's possible...but also impossible. Interesting.

      Delete
    2. Never said it was impossible. It's possible that I could walk outside and get hit by a bus but since the likelihood is so slim I can, with confidence, say it won't happen.

      Delete
  45. A few things:

    -The NWS has the coming cold airmass in the 99th percentile on the cold end for early April. That's not a routine chilly shot, that's an airmass that falls among the coldest 1% of airmasses in our region's climatology for this time of year. High temperatures may be 15-20 degrees below average for a day or two. That's kind of a big deal.
    -How much snow we get will depend upon the prevailing wind direction/track of a possible clipper low. There aren't any apparent major storm chances right now, but how much snow we ultimately get is still up in the air.

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  46. Well all weather forecasts tonight at 6:00 including KW had our temps in the 30s for Sunday/Monday not sure how that is a big deal even for early April?

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    Replies
    1. Because A) we would ordinarily be in the low 50s in early April and B) we may not even reach 30 on Sunday

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    2. In the summer we sometimes hit in the upper 90s even though our average highs are in the 70s. A couple days of 20 below normal temps isn't a big deal.

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  47. I agree, low 30's in April is absolutely NBD. CCCC making something out of nothing bc he is winter storm starved. Talk to me when its single digits in April...

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  48. Well, normally I don't get in the middle of these pissing matches, but a 25-30 F day in April is worthy of conversation in the same way a 5 F day is in January...or a 55 F day in July, for that matter...because both of those examples represent a departure from the normal high by about 25 degrees, similar to what we will experience this weekend.

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  49. When we hit a record high or a record low for a day or two it's not a big deal in the least. One day (Sunday) with a low of 20 degrees will get us close to the record low for the day. Considering our average low is 31 degrees this time of the year, a ten degree difference isn't much. I don't see why a few on here think it's a big deal. (FYI, I'm not NBD guy, I'm actually making a point.)

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  50. I don't think anybody is making a big deal of anything, really...I think it is just weather conversation, speculation, as it is a blog on weather. If we only talked about extreme events, then this place would have about five posts per year. Actually, from May till October, the blog will probably have only five posts...

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    Replies
    1. Agree that it tends to die during that time frame. Very few posts.

      Delete
  51. When do you see we will have a sense of snow fall totals or estimates for Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday? Just wondering as I will be doing some traveling this weekend, and want to plan ahead. At this point, all the talk and blogging has been amount the extreme polar cold that we will experience this weekend -- not thing about the possibility of snow, and dare I say it -- perhaps a winter storm?

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  52. There will be a surprise blizzard in The Flower City within the next 7 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  53. Really it's not a big deal in terms of impact, just in terms of it being at the end of the bell curve. Someone implied earlier that our cold outbreak will be analogous to hitting the upper 90s during the summer. The thing is that we don't hit the upper 90s all that often...maybe once every 5-8 years or something else in that neighborhood. I'm not sure of the exact frequency, I just know that it's not a common occurrence. So it's definitely worthy of conversation, especially if we're talking highs that would be below average in January let alone early April. The degree of lake response will be interesting to monitor as well, even if we don't see a single flake from it. Significant lake effect anywhere in the lower lakes region this time of year is very uncommon.

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  54. Stop it CCCC you continue this false hope because you want one more significant event. However there is nothing there temperature and snow wise.

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    Replies
    1. Anon 12:07 -- are you living off the grid, as all of the local weather folks have been talking about the cold air and how cold it will be. Even Scott has talked about the teens on Sunday morning, and we will be lucky to reach mid to upper 20's. At this point, there is some mention of snow, but more of the focus is on the cold. So lets hope it does not get that cold so that it impacts plants which are already starting to break through the ground, etc.

      And lets all remember that thought it does not happen that often; we have gotten snow in April, and as late as May.

      Delete
  55. When will Winter Storm Watches go up? Also any chance of wind chill advisories with the arctic cold this weekend?

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  56. Shortly they should be up.

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