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Wednesday, March 30

More Winter...April Fools!...Not

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Much like most of the winter, March was wimpy on the snowfall front. We only recorded 3.2", about a foot shy of the average. The seasonal snow has been just 54", which is 39.7" shy of the seasonal average. Rochester is just outside of the top 10 for least snow in March, and seasonal snow, so we won't be breaking any records on that front.

That being said, winter looks to make a return this weekend. Models have been consistent in bringing in an arctic blast Saturday  night and Sunday, with some minor accumulating snow possible Saturday night. It'll likely only be a few inches, but will likely fall overnight, so the strong Spring sun won't have an effect on that. More impressive, is the cold to follow on Sunday, and could have another weaker blast of cold air Monday/Tuesday.



It also looks like we will have plenty of ups and downs in the temperature department through at least early April, with warm-ups, followed by brief shots of cold air. So, spring will be spring around WNY!

251 comments:

  1. From the NWS:

    A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
    POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THIS THERMAL GRADIENT MAY SEND A
    SURFACE LOW RIPPLING ALONG THE ZONE...IN TURN GENERATING A ZONE OF
    STRONG ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THAT
    COULD BRING A LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
    THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE FEATURES INVOLVED WILL
    HAVE TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT AND WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT TO
    PREDICT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH ANY CERTAINTY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did you read Stacey's post? A few inches at best so please stop with the storm idea.

      Delete
    2. People will be posting about possible snow storms into August.

      Delete
    3. Anon 11:40 -- are you trying to be KW or JN. Do you have a beef with what Stacey posted? It sounds like you believe you know more or better.

      Delete
    4. That was from the National Weather Service. Do you have a beef with what they posted?

      Delete
  2. When will Winter Storm Watches and Wind chill Advisories go up for this weekend's big event??

    ReplyDelete
  3. According to my watch, in about 5 minutes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your 5 minutes are WAY UP -- where is your watch posting!

      Delete
    2. No kidding! I am ashamed.

      Delete
  4. Wind Advisories are up; nothing for Winter Storms or LES. Why don't you check in with KW or JN; they like to hype things up a bit.

    ReplyDelete
  5. If the wind does begin to pick up on Saturday night into Sunday -- we might see some Wind Chill Advisories. Concern with the impact this will have on plant which have started to come up -- we might begin to see impact on the growing seasons.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Way early to be worried about growing season. Way early.

      Delete
  6. Just FYI, the few inches that Stacey mentioned is for Saturday night with the clipper/lake effect. The storm potential comes after that.

    ReplyDelete
  7. CCCC stop with the word storm potential please. Storm potential suggests 6 inches or more and that is not going to happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "AS UPPER AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A CLIPPER LOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BRING A LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE FEATURES INVOLVED WILL HAVE TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT AND WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT TO PREDICT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH ANY CERTAINTY."

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

      Not my choice of wording bub ;)

      Delete
  8. http://fusion.net/story/197523/weather-channel-headlines-horror-story/

    ReplyDelete
  9. When are the winter storm watches going up?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Couple of inches Saturday evening into Sunday (cold, wind and snow squalls -- will feel and look like blizzard conditions), and then to watch on Monday possible 3-6" or more inches of snow. Heard maybe by Friday (4/8) could have 6-8 inches of snow on the ground. April might turn out to be our February. Plus, we might even get to the 70 inch mark for snow.

    ReplyDelete
  11. NWS on the clipper:

    "SATURDAY NIGHT THE BROAD SURFACE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC-SOURCED AIR THEN FLOODING ACROSS OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...AND DRIVING 850 MB TEMPS DOWNWARD TO THE -16C TO -19C RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR WHICH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT THE START OF THE EVENING QUICKLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS. WITH THE PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER THIS CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE...ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA."

    Lake effect/enhancement:

    "THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE IT REMAINS FAR TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KFT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL ADDITIONAL...AND POTENTIALLY HEADLINE-WORTHY...INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE REGIONS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT."

    On a local level I've taken "southeast of the lakes" to mean a zone from approximately Irondequoit to Oswego County, favoring areas along and north of 104 as per basically always.

    Follow-up synoptic system:

    "AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BROADENS AND FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK...WITH ITS AXIS SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL LATCH ONTO THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD ALONG IT...WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF STILL BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON SUCH A TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIKELY TO BRING A GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF OUR REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEADLINE-WORTHY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WERE ITS TRACK AND TIMING TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING DAYS."

    This is probably an advisory level snowfall the way things look right now. The GFS/Euro have been tracking the low center on a southeastward trajectory across PA, yielding all or mostly snow. The 12z GGEM is farther north and places the snowfall north of Lake Ontario, but its ensembles are all over the place while the GEFS members are beginning to cluster around the operational. The Euro ensemble mean appears to be in a similar camp.

    4/8 is way too far out to discuss in detail, but there MAY be another opportunity for some snowfall around that time.

    So to summarize: minor snow for all late Saturday, local lake snow to follow, widespread synoptic snow possible after that (probably advisory level for whoever gets it), then we keep vague tabs on the 4/8 time frame until it comes into better focus.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So it is very possible by the end of next week; we could have 7 to 8 inches of snow on the ground; and who said that winter was done with us.

      So Mr. No Now Flakes Guy -- what is your opinion on this.

      We know that Blizzard Guy is already predicting a Blizzard for the Flower City, who know?

      Delete
    2. CCCC this is much better than simply cutting and pasting. Like it when you give your opinion based on the maps, charts, and resources that you have tapped into. Thanks again.

      Delete
  12. Anon 3:27 I was wrong on not one more flake but this is really NBD but people are trying to make it that because it is April this weekend. But 2-3 inches as you know is not a big deal for WNY in any month. So there will be no big storm just relax.

    ReplyDelete
  13. THERE'S A BIG OL' BLIZZARD COMIN' YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST FOLKS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. YOU ARE A FAKE AND NOT THE REAL BLIZZARD GUY.

      Delete
  14. Based on the over night runs we could be in for a snow storm this weekend through Tuesday. I expect WSW to go up tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anon 10:11 what are you looking at because two inches at best. Stop it with the hope like CCCC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With each forecast run your 2 inches are looking silly. Looks like 3-5 from the first event.

      Delete
  16. TWO INCHES MORE LIKE TWO YARDS MY DUDE

    HOPE EVERYONE'S READY TO GET THEIR SCHIT KICKED IN CUZ MA NATURE'S ON THE RAG THIS WEEKEND

    ReplyDelete
  17. WHATCHA GONNA DO BROTHERS
    WHATCHA GONNA DO
    WHEN THE SPRING BLIZZAMANIA

    RUNS
    U
    N
    S

    WILD
    I
    L
    D

    ON
    N

    YOU
    O
    U

    ReplyDelete
  18. DINOLFO BETTER GET HER HEAD OUT OF HER DIRTY DUMP-O-MATIC IF SHE DOESN'T WANT A VISIT FROM THE PINK SLIP FAIRY

    ReplyDelete
  19. Man, I have to say these posts are funny. A dusting Saturday night and another dusting to an inch Monday and people are freaking out like we are getting something big. When KW is the only person making mention of a bunch of snow (the news 8 people said possibly plowable depending on where you are which isn't a ton) you know this is all just the hype train coming into the station.

    ReplyDelete
  20. ANON IS AN AGENT OF CHERYL "HITLER MCISIS" DINOLFO WHO IS ATTEMPTING TO LEAD US ASTRAY WITH HIS ANTI-SNOW PROPAGANDA. DO NOT ALLOW YOURSELF TO BE DECEIVED.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you implying that the County Executive is part of a terrorist group? Be careful of what you say and the words you use.

      Delete
  21. This morning RC said for Saturday into Sunday most will be 1 possibly up to 2 inches of snow. Monday will be an additional 2-3 inches for snow fall total of 4.5 to 5 inches, with higher elevations getting more and it being more cold.

    To the Global Warning Is Fake Blogger, this is a blog in which those of us who likes to talk about the weather, give our opinions based on reading the charts and data -- we are not into taking about political figured. And when did the County Executive give her opinion on the weather this weekend; I think she has more important things to worry about based on the news last night

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IT IS OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE THAT I SPREAD THE WORD OF MS DINOLFO'S OPPRESSIVE ANTI-SNOW STANCE SIR. OUR HUMBLE CITY MUST KNOW THE TRUTH.

      Delete
  22. Winter Weather Advisories are up for 8pm Saturday through 8am Sunday: 3 to 5 inches of snow, with wind guts up to 50 mph. Think that Blizzard Guy might be one to something -- not necessarily a Blizzard, but could be blizzard type conditions.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Have feeling this Winter Storm will sneak up on people; if they are not paying attention.

    ReplyDelete
  24. With the potential Winter Storm, wind guts of 50+ mph and wind chill factor in play -- will a travel advisory be issued? Reading the blog and not liking or feeling comfortable with what some of the weather experts on the blog are predicting. Lots of people traveling back from Easter and Spring Break Vacations -- worried.

    ReplyDelete
  25. No Anon 3:20 just relax it will be NBD for Sunday. Scott just put on FB 1-3 inches for Saturday night into Sunday. People are just over reacting to be funny.

    ReplyDelete
  26. YOU SHOULD ALL BE WORRIED IT'S GONNA BE A HUMMMY-DUM-DINGER

    BREAD AND MILK TIMES A THOUSAND

    ReplyDelete
  27. KEVIN WILLIAMS SAYS 4-6 FEET OF CONCRETE ON THE WAY WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS. SOCIETAL BREAKDOWN IMMINENT.

    ReplyDelete
  28. GREAT GOOGLY MOOGLY IT'S SO GOT DANG WINDY I HOPE MY TRICYCLE DOESN'T BLOW AWAY.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Where is CCCC with his thoughts about this weekend and Monday? I hate this new Global idiot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HE'S BUSY SEEKING THE SORT OF INTIMATE FEMALE TOUCH THAT HE HASN'T FELT IN YEARS

      Delete
  30. CORRECT OPINIONS TIME:

    -KEVIN WILLIAMS IS BAE
    -13WHAM IS TRASH
    -ANONYMOUS POSTERS ARE TRASH
    -ANIME IS TRASH
    -YOUR WAIFU IS TRASH

    ReplyDelete
  31. KEVIN WILLIAMS AND I ARE SECRET LOVERS PLEASE DON'T TELL ANYONE

    ReplyDelete
  32. This blog is not likely to be here next winter. The delinquents have found it.

    ReplyDelete
  33. I CHANGED MY MIND THERE WON'T BE ANOTHER FLAKE UNTIL NOVEMBER AT THE EARLIEST ALSO THIS WINTER SUCKS

    ReplyDelete
  34. Besides Global Idiot is Real the blog is fine. I believe by Tuesday Rochester will have 5-7 inches of snow in total.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. THAT IS NOT VERY NICE OF YOU TO CALL ME AN IDIOT
      I'M TELLING ON YOU

      Delete
  35. I HOPE JIM BOEHEIM'S GIGANTIC NOSE GENERATES ENOUGH OF A NORTHWARD DRAFT TO KEEP THE SNOW AWAY FROM ALL OF YOU GOOBERS

    ReplyDelete
  36. Global Idiot is Real is not even funny. Not sure how he was created and why he even posts. The posts are not funny or interesting. KW not impressed a trace to an inch south of thruway. Same for Monday it is hard to get a storm of 6 inches or more in April.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At least it's April and there are less people reading this nonsense.

      I wanted it to be nicer out there today. It wasn't cold. But that wind.

      Delete
  37. WPC map, NERFC map and CIPS analog snowfall median respectively:

    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_72hr/prb_72hsnow_50prcntil_2016040200f072.gif
    http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/NE_Snow.png
    http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/2016040112/F072/EC_072/COOPmedgfs212F072.png

    Those NERFC maps seem to be a bit overdone most of the time, so a general 4-8" of snowfall through Monday seems reasonable to me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Up to 8" in metro too?

      Delete
  38. And for those who still haven't guessed the truth about that GLOBAL WARMING IS FAKE guy...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNgxyL5zEAk

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hmmmm. Interesting method to spice up the blog.

      Delete
    2. Or maybe yesterday was April Fools Day...that's an option too :P

      Delete
  39. CCCC you really think 4-8 through Monday? Have not heard any local met saying that much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well there's this:

      https://twitter.com/whec_kwilliams/status/715860471677640705

      "If fcst pans out, real shot at #ROC seeing more snow in April than in last Nov, Dec & March (individually). Very rare if not unprecedented."

      Then there's this:

      http://nmaps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016040200/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png
      http://nmaps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016040200/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png
      http://nmaps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016040200/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      The GGEM is, as per usual, probably overdone on its max totals and too far north with its bullseye area. But it still depicts appreciable snow totals like the other models. Then there's also the ensemble mean precip totals:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016040200/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_11.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016040112/gem-ens_apcpn_eus_13.png

      A small amount of that is likely rain/mix, but there's still enough QP in there to argue for 4-8 inch snow totals. One major supporting factor is that both snow events of interest will occur largely at night, so the notable early spring sun angle will be much less of an influence. And for those who doubt that such snow totals can occur this time of year...our AVERAGE snowfall for April is just under 4 inches, plus we've seen daily snowfalls in excess of 6 inches as late as April 25th excluding the outlier 05/89 event.

      Delete
  40. The Euro over night run and other models do show us getting a good thumping of 4-8 inches by Monday night with a good chunk Sunday night into Monday morning?

    ReplyDelete
  41. This upcoming Wx is cruel for those of us that waited all winter for decent snow and cold. Maybe this means mother nature is blowing all this crap out of her system so we can get a decent spring started in another week or so. Hoping.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you have not realized it, but there will be no Spring. This weather is to last til mid to end of April.

      Delete
  42. Unfortunately the ensemble means don't show any extended above average stretches for the next couple of weeks. The good news is that there does look to be a turn to warmer than average on the whole after about mid month.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Seems to me that LES would be an issue with the cold and winds am I wrong? Especially with the lakes being warm.

    ReplyDelete
  44. NWS discussion pertaining to lake snows:

    "FINALLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLIPPER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BRIEFLY RISE TO OVER 10K FEET. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW EXTRA HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM NEAR ROCHESTER TO WAYNE/ONTARIO COUNTIES OFF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL QUICKLY END LATER SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG APRIL SUN ANGLE DISRUPT THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS."

    And again late Monday on a more scattered basis:

    "BY MONDAY EVENING THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL BE TO OUR EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CREATED BY THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS. AIR TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL STILL BE -15 TO -18C AND LINGERING MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT MAY BRING SCATTERED LAKE SNOWS...OF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES."

    And as a bonus:

    "IT WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD BY APRIL STANDARDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS...TO PERHAPS INLAND SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SINGLE DIGITS. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST APRIL NIGHT IN 20 YEARS OVER OUR REGION."

    Welcome to Apricember.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Try coolest April since the 1950's.

      Delete
  45. CCCC did you the track on the Euro run today for the potential storm next weekend?

    ReplyDelete
  46. I'm more focused on tonight into tomorrow. Let's get past the upcoming event before talking in depth about the next one...which at a glance does look very interesting on the Euro, but also far less interesting on the other models.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Did not the overnight GFS run shift tonight right into our path and showing up to 8 inches by tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  48. I think tonight's system will produce in the neighborhood of 4-7" by the time things wind down. These are the most recent totals from five different models:

    http://nmaps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016040306/042/snku_acc.us_ne.png
    http://nmaps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016040312/039/snku_acc.us_ne.png
    http://nmaps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2016040312/042/snku_acc.us_ne.png
    http://nmaps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016040300/045/snku_acc.us_ne.png
    http://nmaps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2016040306/042/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    I don't buy the notion of totals being quite as high as the models show, and I definitely don't buy what the GGEM is trying to sell. By the way, how often is it that we get bare ground for Christmas while snow greets us for MLB opening day? It's been a subpar season for snow but it definitely hasn't lacked intrigue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JN said 2-4 inches by Monday afternoon -- he did not say anything about 4-7 inches for the City of Rochester.

      Delete
  49. The poor flowers that has started to come up; are all lying face down in the snow. Why do you feel like there will be no Spring, and we will have our winter after all over the next several weeks. Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and into Monday already up.

    ReplyDelete
  50. If you happen to be out and about -- the roads are pretty good, but the wind -- be care as you drive along. Icy sidewalks.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Yeah CCCC is way off base with 4-7 inches. Not one local met is saying that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He gets paid accordingly. We'll see. I'd be surprised to get more than a couple inches.

      Though falling at night makes a big difference this time of year.

      Delete
    2. Anon 1:11. Evidently someone is talking about heavy snow as winter storm warnings just went up for 4-8 inches.

      Delete
  52. Interesting that when CCCC doesn't comment for half a day everyone gets withdrawal symptoms and then when he does check in he gets critisized for his thoughts

    ReplyDelete
  53. http://www.weather.gov/images/buf/stormtotalsnow/StormTotalSnowFcst.png
    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_50prcntil_2016040400f024.gif

    I was off base until the base caught up :P

    ReplyDelete
  54. CCCC is on top of his game.

    ReplyDelete
  55. I can not open those links do they show 4-8 inches for Rochester?

    ReplyDelete
  56. Will you explain for me CCCC that Global Warming guy posting because could not open the youtube site you posted? Was that you doing that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah that was me. Honestly thought most here would figure that out pretty quickly since it was April Fools Day. I've gotta say it was pretty fun to be a shitposting goober for a day, although I'm sure it wasn't fun for anyone else...

      Delete
  57. Funny I was the one who called you an idiot sorry. Starting to snow now lightly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well I was deliberately acting like an idiot so you weren't wrong lol

      Delete
  58. The latest NAM puts us in a good spot for snow right through tomorrow afternoon. I think at least 6 inches is a good bet for most.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Hey where is that anon poster? The one who said no more flakes this year? He's been MIA this week. Wonder why.

    ReplyDelete
  60. The guy already owned up to it, so let's move on.

    Been snowing here for about 45 minutes, just a thin coating so far.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Coming down pretty good and it is cold out. I am in Henrietta.

    ReplyDelete
  62. This blog has died early even with a spring winter storm warning. No Chris, Snowdog, or Weatherguy kind of disappointing.

    ReplyDelete
  63. I am here. Reporting 3" of snow and 27 F in Penfield.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Same, solid 3" in Highland Park Area. Interesting to see how this snow shield interacts later tonight with the cold. Could be pushing 8" in areas in Monroe by the time all said and done...

    ReplyDelete
  65. Looks like 3" on the ground at KROC so far according to ASOS.

    ReplyDelete
  66. CCCC is it suppose to snow all night and is it going to get heavier?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Should snow through about mid morning tomorrow. Heaviest rates are expected to occur overnight.

      Delete
    2. CCCC what are your early thoughts about possible winter storm Thursday/Friday?

      Delete
  67. 2 hour delay in Geneva and Lyons tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Why do you call it a Winter Storm Warning when it is Spring - so it should be called "Spring Storm Warning". Scott said that we will be experiencing winter-line conditions and temperature through the end or later part of April. Looks like the month of April will be our Winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KW stated that we will be getting above average temperatures starting mid April, so am hoping that is the case.

      Delete
  69. Good snowy morning all, who would have thought a white April? Also, It's looking like increasing odds that we will get some play out of Thursday/Friday system. Stay tuned.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Remember what Scott said on his podcast -- Winter is definitely not done with us yet. The cold will stick around through the later part of April; perhaps as late as April 20th or 22nd, and then we might begin to see an up swing in warm air.

      Delete
  70. I think it is possible that we will hit the 8-10 inch mark for snow by the end of the week, which will mean we definitely are not done with Winter yet, and surpassed the totals for December and January. Now if we can only get one more Winter Storm out of it; then we can end winter on a positive note.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Winter is definitely not over. I'm seeing the next 3 weeks as cold and snow-potential filled. Some interesting activity about 10 days out from now, no need to speculate yet, but I do see something of note ;-)

      Delete
  71. Weatherguy the models all winter put something big out there 10 days out and they never materialized. Any big snows of 8 inches or more are done. It will be unseasonable cold for the next few weeks that is true.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon 11:27 depending on where you live -- you may have had 8" inches of snow last night from this Winter/Spring Storm. Remember, winter is not over til it is over.

      Delete
  72. Looks like the heaviest rates did not occur overnight like they were expected to, but rather with the initial overrunning snowfall yesterday evening. Significant dry slotting held totals way down south and west of the metro, such that they fell far short of the original forecast. Areas along and north of the Thruway appear to have come in on the low end of the 4-8" range from the now defunct warning. The current "official" storm total for KROC sits at 4.8", which preliminarily appears to have accomplished two things:

    -Pushing us past the 60" mark for the season, i.e. more polish for the turd.
    -Establishing this April as the first ever to produce more snowfall than November, December and March COMBINED. Seven other seasons saw April produce more snow than each of those months individually, but this is the first on record to outdo all of them put together.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Plus, it is looking to be the coldest April since 1950's.

      Delete
    2. I believe April will bring us more snow, not necessarily a Blizzard, but definitely more snow. It will finally be the month in which we get out Winter.

      Delete
  73. Feel bad for those who like Spring and Spring flowers; have feeling we will not have a Spring this year, and will (sometimes in May) head into Summer. Remember April look to be significantly colder than normal through almost the end of the month, with more opportunities for snow. So as we are past the 60" mark, we might just reach the 70" mark for snow totals, there is still hope and it is still possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Getting to 70" might be very difficult even in a cold pattern this time of year. We need another 8.2" to get there and whatever happens late week doesn't look like it'll accomplish that on its own, plus average temps are rapidly increasing.

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    2. I have faith, as every 1, 2, or 3 inches begins to add up over time.

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    3. But then the question becomes just how many of those snowfalls we have left. We're quickly running out of road here.

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    4. We have time -- remember it has snowed in May.

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  74. Winter is not done with us yet; overnight temps to be around 14 degrees, if that.

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  75. Looks like the Thursday/Friday possible storm is nothing now.

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    Replies
    1. So no snow Thur/Friday? or nothing significant?

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    2. Would not count anything out; remember April is out Winter. Temps will be in the 20's. Besides we need more snow to reach the 70" mark for snow this year, and for those of us who like winter; we want to stretch it out as long as possible.

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    3. Imagine snowmobiling in April; pretty cool.

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    4. Done it. Doesn't last long due to sun angle. Otherwise, I assure you it is the same as in January.

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  76. Skies are beginning to clear... Record low is going to be within reach, and although a synoptic type snowfall is looking less likely later this week, a closed low over Hudson bay can always generate some lake snows.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We BROKE the records for the low overnight!!! Another one for the history books.

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  77. I must admit that I greatly prefer the current outdoor scenery to what we typically get in early spring.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is true. I intensely dislike the mud season.

      It was kind of cool with moderate snowfall coming down during the waning daytime.

      at 8 o'clock at night.

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    2. Those inches continue to add up -- 70 inches would well be within reach.

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    3. Spreadsheet guy, I hate snow in April and also the season of mud. If this shortens the mud season then I guess it makes the snow a little more tolerable.

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  78. Just like Orange is the new Black; April is the new February.

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  79. Models showing no storms in sight the next two weeks. 70 inches will not happen this winter. I am ready for warmer temperatures to be the norm now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm also ready for warmer wx, but sadly the absence of storms in models doesn't mean diddly at this point. We've got less than 8" inches to get us to 70" for the season. Getting there is historically less likely, but so has this entire season, so in no way is it out of the question. We had a 10" snow storm in May 1989 :(

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  80. LOL at the 12z CMC...

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  81. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016040512&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=537

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh the horror if that came true!

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    2. Thank god it's the CMC and therefore high on crack.

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    3. The only aspect that scares me a little bit is that most models are trying to stall out a front in our area for next week, CMC seems to be the only one trying to invert it also. But I definitely agree CCCC, it's off the rocker for now...

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  82. If April Showers bring May Flowers; what does April Snow bring?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Forum fighting. Although just about everything brings that. :oP

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    2. How is Anon 7:06 post called "forum fighting". Matter of fact thought it was funny.

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    3. He's saying that April snow brings forum fighting.

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  83. Some light snow flakes beginning to fall in Henrietta/Brighton.

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  84. Looks like we are finally out of any potential snow threats and thank-you. Pattern change for good a week from today to warmer weather daily.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KW actually predicted warmer weather starting around the 15th....so he seems right on point.

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    2. Scott has said probably about 4/15 to 4/20 we will being to see a change to the warmer side in one of his podcasts last week.

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  85. Accuweather is doing 90 day local forecasts now...that's just asinine I tell ya whut.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are the Donald Trump of the private forecasting world.

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  86. Snow, wind, slick roads oh January; wait its April.

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  87. Yea, another cold snowy, windy, 20-30 degree weekend. Loving April so far. I don't think we are having a spring this years, and will jump right into a short summer, and then onto Fall and Winter again. Still have confidence that we will be close to the 70 inch mark for snow this year. Keep it coming!!!!!

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  88. In another 7-10 days this could all be a distant(bad) memory as we are likely to approach average temps and maybe some above avg. It's no surprise to those of us that have lived around here for many years because we know that April is really a frustrating and generally sucky weather month. Sure this one is colder and snowier than normal, but that should have no bearing on a short or long summer and we could transition to above avg warmth before you know it.

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  89. Are we sure it is April, as it truly feels like January. Just want to see some signs of Spring, those flower that had started to come up have long gone face down into the snow, and even the buds on some of the trees are probably impacted. It is the price we pay for the snowless winter we had; not that it was actually snowless, but the snow fall total was below 70". Plus Blizzard Guy is probably in therapy, as there was NO Blizzard in the Flower City this winter.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Haven't seen a flake in Rochester in weeks, what are you talking about?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Truly not funny. Did you not wake up to snow on your car, even though it was a dusting, and it pretty much snowed for a good portion of the morning. If you have nothing productive or useful to add to the blog or say -- get off it.

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    2. Who peed in your Wheaties?

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  91. Still love those mornings when you get up for an early morning jog, and the wind chill is in the teens, and there is snow. Though I like winter; I am TRULY SICK of this, and simply want to begin to see some warmth, sun, etc. Oh, yea Anon 12:34 this is where you can make your statement about not seeing any flakes in Rochester. Or maybe the flakes you are talking about is dandruff.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FYI, I live in Rochester Nevada. People take things so seriously on here, geesh.

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  92. I have a message for the groundhog:

    https://media.giphy.com/media/l41lO8vRXzSB0CkqQ/giphy.gif

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  93. >we will never get off Mr. Snowy's Wild Ride

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  94. What would a Sunday might into Monday morning be without a little snow. At least we did not get what Ohio got over the weekend. Imagine over a foot of snow in mid-April and still more to come their way.

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  95. It wouldn't let met post a direct reply but living in the ghost town of Rochester Nevada is nice and quiet. Gets a little warm in the summer but that's okay. There's a ghost of a miner's daughter that visits me and brings me food.

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  96. http://www.noaa.gov/national-weather-service-will-stop-using-all-caps-its-forecasts

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  97. WHY. WHAT'S WRONG WITH CAPITAL LETTERS. HOW ELSE WILL WE KNOW THERE WILL BE A BLIZZARD IN ROCHESTER. MARK IT DOWN!

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  98. Made me laugh. Concerned about Blizzard Guy, as he has not posted anything in a while.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He was done in by his 99.9999% incorrect blizzard posts.

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  99. Finally feels like we are beginning to turn the corner; perhaps Spring is on its way to us. Finger crossed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For as mild a winter as it was, it has been a clinger. Most years I'd have mowed by now. I'll probably break out the mower this weekend given the nice forecast.

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    2. Would agree; it was like Winter did not want to leave us; but hopefully it has. Fingers crossed.

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  100. I was just thinking about this yesterday. It seems like winter has been 13 months long. My guess is because there wasn't much change over the course of the winter. Been looking at brown grass, mud and bare trees since October pretty much.

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  101. It didn't arrive when it was supposed to, then it finally showed up when it was no longer welcome. The GEFS and GEPS ensemble means still don't show any prolonged above average temps, but averages are rapidly climbing so it's kind of a moot point. At least there are no apparent near record cold shots on tap. In other news, all 7 components of the NMME now have a robust La Nina developing by November:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Lead7.html

    The CFS previously showed the El Nino continuing through much of fall, but a recent bug fix seems to have corrected that issue. And this is merely a point of curiosity from this far out, but it seems quite strange that the CFS isn't among the models trying to torch the entire continent, which is a break from what's typical of that model:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead7.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Full blown La Ninas tend to introduce winter with a bang, then moderate, correct?

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    2. Yep. I'm hoping that tendency holds true this time around since I'm tired of waiting until February for winter to start.

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  102. >see Bills 2016 schedule
    >three straight December home games
    >in a La Nina winter

    MRW:
    https://media.giphy.com/media/qziOC815eDVEA/giphy.gif

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  103. I'm hoping for a little drought through the spring. Less mosquitoes and mud.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The cold to start April may end up having some effect on the skeeter population too.

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  104. CC. What do u think about the summer. Hot and dry hopefully. 90's.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'd guess hotter than average with near/slightly above average precip. That's just a WAG though.

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  105. Why is Colorado getting all of the snow and we are not. It is like they are in the snow vortex. 3+ feet of snow; once again we have missed out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because they live on a mountain. And we do not. Denver has much warmer winter daytime highs than us. (like 42 or so if I recall). But they have much more wild swings in temperature Than us. 70 degrees one day, snow another is common for them in spring. They almost certainly average a later last snow of the season.

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    2. Yes, this is the case. March tends to be Denver's snowiest month as well. I was in Denver a few years ago in January. The high was 5 F during the day, but people walked around freely without hats or gloves. It was a very dry cold, and the sun warms up dark surfaces enough to melt snow from them; also, it feels warm on your skin despite the temps.

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    3. Colorado also has a tendency to get zapped with huge late season snowstorms during strong El Nino events.

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  106. Could it be; I think so - Spring has finally arrived to the Flower City. YEA, just in time for the Lilac Festival.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Interesting summary of winter 2015-16 by Judah Cohen today. Briefly, he said that the strong, moist southern jet typical of a strong El Nino pattern never consistently materialized, allowing warmer air from the Gulf to drift north during frequent outbreaks. Also, despite an early winter SSW that was supposed to weaken the Polar Vortex, it was a stubborn &*#*$%^#* and remained strong until mid-March (when our winter started!), allowing a zonal flow to dominate most of the winter. This is what resulted in the winter we had.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Old man winter was always in for an uphill battle against one of the strongest polar vortices on record. I didn't think it would hold on as long as it did, but I clearly underestimated its tenacity. The fact that the subtropical jet underachieved is going to be a serious concern for the still drought stricken areas of CA as we head into a La Nina (correlated with below average precip in the southern half of the CONUS), and especially with the +PDO hanging on for dear life. Hopefully for them we aren't on the verge of a multi-year Nina like we experienced after the 1997-98 super Nino, or else things have the potential to get substantially worse.

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    2. Another factor at play was the misplaced Siberian High that formed as a result of higher than normal October snowfall. Instead of being over the Arctic, it was over northeastern Asia. As a result, it flattened out the flow of the Polar jet earlier, moving the potential trough further west. That being said, I don't think we were in store for a consistent cold, snowy, or even late-starting, winter due to the other factors you and I mentioned.

      Delete

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