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Monday, May 23

Finally Warm! (And the Summer Weather Outlook)

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

So, our winter wasn't bad. At all. If you don't like winter. As one viewer said, winter never really came around, but it also didn't know when to leave. Well, that is finally changing. It is looking like we will finally get some true summer-like weather as we head into the "unofficial" start of summer.

The Memorial Day weekend will see temperatures rising back into the lower and mid 80s, with more humidity, as well. To go along with that, we will see some scattered showers and storms. But, that's ok. We could use a little rain, and we can definitely use some warmth! Enjoy!

PS - in case you missed it, here is the News 8 summer weather outlook. Check it out! http://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/local-news/rochesters-summer-forecast

356 comments:

  1. Humidity is terrible.

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  2. Don't want rain. They look to be very scattered, not widespread. Hopefully we miss them. I like not cutting the grass 3 times a week. LOL

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  3. Where is Matt going?

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  4. Thunderstorms are terrible.

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  5. Either way it looks like temps are going to remain above average for at least the next 10 days. We may settle back closer to average afterwards.

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  6. Looks like most of the rain yesterday fell in Northern Monroe county. I picked up only .09 in Gananda and the airport only picked up .07. Im ok with that. Don't want rain.

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  7. JN is now on News 8 starting tonight?

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  8. Feels like the time Johnny Damon joined the Yankees. Except this time the Yankees are the good guys.

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  9. Wow. I not only got rain today I picked up a lot. Over 1.3" in Gananda. That shower must have stayed right on top of us.

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  10. It was a hot and humid day, which tends to produce popup downpours. Not much in the way of any prevailing wind either so any downpours that did develop were slow movers. It rained for a large chunk of the late afternoon where I was in the southern tier.

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  11. The buffalo area is over 3" below normal un rainfall and we are over 2" below normal. How are we, especially Buffalo not considered in a moderate drought. Buffalo should at least be in the abnormally dry category.

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  12. Wow. From drought to floods. These storms just blew up right over Monroe county and have just not moved.

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  13. Thank the lord the persistent lake shadow from Erie finally decided to breakdown at least enough to give western Monroe county some rain, we were getting desperate...

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  14. What would we do in a real drought? Desperate is water rationing or turning on the spigot and dust coming out... not brown grass.

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  15. Looks like the first week of June looks very cool and wet. Mmmmm. Makes you wonder if the HOT DRY summer will be realized.

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  16. One chilly week does not a busted summer forecast make.

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  17. So JN has joined Channel 8. Wonder if they will remain their #1 rating as the most accurate weather team around.

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    Replies
    1. If anything the gap should widen a bit further.

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    2. What happened to Matt? Did they unceremoniously can him to make room for JN?

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    3. Matt moved to Missouri. He announced his departure on air, it was his choice, and he's been giving shoutouts to Rochester on his FB and Twitter since he moved. The one that was unceremoniously dropped was JN as near as I can tell. Glad he's been picked up by 8 and out from under the hype shadow.

      Delete
  18. Next week looks shitty. Rain and cool. This is June?????

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  19. We've been very warm and relatively dry for an extended time period. Regression to the mean.

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    Replies
    1. 100% correct CCCC. It also doesn't look that bad next week and only 1-2 days a little below normal.

      Some people like to piss and moan.

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  20. Cool is cool with me. Every day without humidity is a victory. One day closer to winter!

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  21. Currently it looks like the first 2/3rds or so of June will average cooler than normal. It's not uncommon to have that situation followed by the rest of summer being a scorcher. Analogs still favor a hot and dry summer overall.

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    Replies
    1. As a teacher on the 3rd floor of an unairconditioned building, I am a fan of this prognosis.

      A week ago it was 88 degrees. With a humidity of 65%. In the room. Some years I've hit 100 degrees in the room. It's awful. It's like being bacteria. I used to wear a tie and long sleeve in the temperature. Now once the room gets to 80 I wear polos.

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    2. I spent many years as a classroom teacher at Grade 5. I had the hottest room in the building, so I can sympathize.

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    3. 60 degrees on Wednesday. WTF. We will see. I am skeptical of a hot and dry summer. I wish it would dry out so the grass stops growing so fast. LOL.

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    4. Hardly unheard of. I remember a 57 degree day in late June, back in 2003. I hosted a party at my house and we all had to go inside and I had to turn the heat on. During my honeymoon, in July 2013, there was a day in the Thousand Islands where the temp never got out of the 50s. As for trends, I know that seasonal patterns tend to get locked in at the end of the previous season. That was the case last summer, when it was consistently average or below (temps), with occasional warm-ups every five to seven days. We will see how this summer turns out.

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  22. The summer of 2012 began with nearly a full week of highs well below average, including one day which never got out of the 50s. Then the back half of June initiated one of the hottest summers on record, and at one point WNY was saddled with moderate drought conditions. Brown lawns were commonplace as rainfall was essentially nonexistent for more than a month between mid June and late July. The point is that a week of cool temps at the start of summer isn't always a harbinger of a cool summer overall. On top of that, the ensemble means depict a warming trend (relative to average) beginning late this week.

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  23. Looks like Matt Jones landed at KSPR in Springfield, MO. Good for him.

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    Replies
    1. Hmmm. A small market. Did he land a chief meteorologist gig or something?

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    2. He's their morning show guy.

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  24. Another 1.3" of rain today in Gananda. The storms like to form right over us lately. We are water logged. Cannot wait for dry weather.

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  25. Ding dong the witch is dead...

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/740932699301502976
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

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    Replies
    1. It's about time. I was getting a little sick of him. Ruined my snowmobile season and made a mess of Spring.

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    2. Would've been a much different story with more Greenland blocking. That was really the only difference between the subpar winter we got and the snowstorm bonanza that could've been. Still, given the choice I'd take my chances with a Godzilla Nino again in the future.

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    3. Not me. It's a crapshoot with a Nino. With excessive blocking, the storms bury the coast and miss us. With weak or no blocking, the two jets rarely or never meet and when they do, you a Great Lakes cutter or a Southern slider.

      I prefer the +PNA, +PDO regime, with a slightly -AO and -NAO that brings consistent snow and cold to the midwest and east coast. 2002-03 and 2010-11 were ideal winters that ended in late March with a transition to a pleasant Spring.

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    4. Both of those winters had bouts of excessive blocking though, and most of the storms either fringed us or completely missed us to the east. That was especially the case early in 10-11, where I believe at one point in January NYC had more snow on the season than we did. Just one big storm after another nailing the coast until February when the NAO flipped to positive. But the intense blocking did help us in regards to large amounts of lake effect. The PNA was largely negative that winter, only flipping positive during January before returning to negative in February. I don't think it's necessarily the case that strong blocking leaves us high and dry or that +PNA/+PDO patterns serve us better, but that the pattern being "too favorable," so to speak, ends up helping the coast a lot more than it helps us. I still see where you're coming from though...having a beefy El Nino necessitates one hell of a balancing act when it comes to other factors, and if you want a better shot at a consistently cold/snowy winter then you generally don't want a strong ENSO event, especially not a strong El Nino.

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    5. Yeah, I remember reading the NOAA AO and NAO graphs in both winters and seeing both plunge will into -4, -5 range at times. That was when I mistakenly believed that blocking was a 100% guarantee of a cold, snowy winter to the extent that it is an essential component. Then came 2009-10. NAO/AO was some of the most negative readings since records were kept; the blocking was so extensive that it deflects the storms to right along the coast. I think Philly and DC broke a snow record that year (?). 2012-15 proved to me that a solid winter could be had despite a +NAO and +AO.

      Back to 02-03, 10-11...

      Yes, we had are usual half-dozen misses, but as you know, cold breeds cold and snow breeds snow. Siberia, Canada, and the midwest US had a deep, consistent snowpack most of that winter, and there was clipper after clipper that year, juiced up and frigid, which would regularly hit us with 6-10" snowfalls once or twice per week.

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    6. 09-10 was a special beast...the El Nino that winter was moderate strength and extremely west based, almost a Modoki even. Snowfall began very late and ended very early, but the three main winter months were all above average. Then we experienced our only snowless March on record. There was also the retro nor'easter that was probably the 2nd or 3rd most hyped storm that I can recall, and Niagara Falls got three feet of lake effect at the start of January. It was just a weird winter all around.

      I feel like it's been a very long time since our last juiced up clipper pattern. Those little suckers only seem to produce a coating to an inch at most these days. The oncoming La Nina might give the northern stream a significant boost though, as it tends to do.

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    7. Last year (14-15), when they came through, a few were good for 4-6" around these parts but I remember them blowing up when they hit the Cape and had a fresh supply of relatively warm Atlantic water to re-fuel. Boston ended up with over 100" of snow that season. Was that because of a +NAO...that those clippers were able to blow up into big Lows that buried the NE coast on several occasions? I am speculating that a lack of a block allowed those clippers to linger and explode, rather than getting on the -NAO conveyor belt.

      It seems like our previous winter (15-16) allowed storm systems to freelance their way across the country, occasionally merging with the southern jet and bombing out (our 18" snowmaggedon on Feb 17-18) but otherwise remaining largely unpredictable.

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    8. Clippers blowing up off the coast is a common way for New England to get big storms in a +NAO pattern. During the back half of 14-15 the western ridge was very sharply amplified and centered along the west coast, which created the perfect downstream trough to zap them with numerous clipper-redevelopers. A block in that pattern probably would've forced the target zone to be farther south across the coastal Mid Atlantic. But the western ridge was the primary culprit behind that historic stretch of winter. As for our cement bomb from last season, that was entirely southern stream. A clipper did come in behind it about a day later though. It's actually pretty insane how we managed to thread the needle on that one...the spacing between the southern wave and the northern one was precisely what it needed to be to plant that 25 mile wide jackpot stripe directly on top of us, with a sharp dropoff on either side.

      Delete
  26. Already tired of hearing GJ saying plenty of heat and humidity.

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  27. Looks like we are finally going to get a week without rain.

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    1. I think we've already had a week without rain so this may be the second.

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  28. It's been really dry here. I could see how this could become a serious issue if it stays like this the next 3 months.

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  29. Argh... Now it looks like pops for Thursday that was not there yesterday!

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  30. An afternoon of scattered sprinkles won't ruin your whole week. Besides, we could really use some decent rainfall if we don't want our lawns to start looking like the Serengeti.

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  31. I have had plenty of rain in Gananda over the past 2 weeks. Don't want more. I am above average rainfall by quite a bit.

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  32. You notice that Monroe and Wayne county are the only counties in Western Ny that is not shown as abnormally dry on the drought monitor. Those counties have seen quite a bit of rain over the past 2 weeks from heavy thunderstorms.

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    Replies
    1. Since May 29, I have had just about 4 inches of rain at my house in Lyons.

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  33. Most of the rainfall from downpours simply runs off. Not very beneficial to plants.

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  34. Looks like system for Thursday has become less organized, with less chance of rain. Hopefully anything we get comes at night.

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  35. Not sure why they keep saying we need rain here in Monroe and Wayne counties. We got socked the last 2 weeks. The Buffalo area is much worse off with a deficit approaching 5".

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  36. We're nearly three quarters of an inch BELOW average during the past two weeks. That's the exact opposite of "socked." Since March we're running a deficit of 2.53 inches. Maybe not abnormal in any sense, but not insignificant either. And the next week or so will increase that deficit even further.

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  37. Three quarters of an inch is nothing. We can make that up in one Thunderstorm in 5 minutes. That does not constitute dry by any means.

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    Replies
    1. 50% of average since June 1st and 74% of average since March 1st is definitely pretty dry, regardless of how quickly it can be made up. A single snowstorm in the winter can make up an 18" snowfall deficit, that doesn't make it any less significant. Besides, we don't have much of an opportunity for thunderstorms for at least another week.

      Delete
  38. Problem is that most Thunderstorms drop their heavy rain ove a certain spot.

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  39. Hey Weather Weenies: I got a trivia Q for ya. The lake breeze kicks in about an hour earlier on a warm, sunny summer morning in Monroe Co. vs. Wayne Co. Why?!?!

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    Replies
    1. Does it have anything to do with average water temps? Because that's my best and only guess.

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    2. More Urban in Monroe, so slightly warmer earlier on land in Monroe?

      Or is it related to the shape of the shoreline? The lake "infiltrates" the land more. so??

      I'm curious.

      Delete
    3. Ooo Spreadsheet Guy...got it! More rooftops, pavement and urban surfaces heat up more quickly and create the land/water temperature differential faster in Monroe Co. This causes the lake breeze to kick up early as lake cooled air above the immediate surface of the water rushes ashore to fill the gap left by the rising warm air above the land.

      Delete
    4. BTW I would have replied much sooner but for some reason, your posts did not show up until today. Happens sometimes with this blog, I have noticed.

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  40. How can we have so many cold fronts this year without storms? I know some spots have had storms as cold fronts have gone through.. but it seems like we should have more wide spread storms with humid air being pushed out. Why is the probability for rain only 20% on Tuesday for instance?

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    1. High likely to low categorical POPs for Monday night though, with a slight severe risk per SPC. My guess regarding the flaccid cold fronts is a combination of weak dynamics and robust lake shadowing.

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  41. I have had plenty of rain here in Gananda, Our grass is lush and green. We were one of the lucky ones that got the rain. I travel just a mile south of here and the grass is brown.

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    1. Getting pretty dry here in Penfield. All of my rainwater collection bins are empty. My grass is dry, but not quite brown yet. I laid the pool cover on the lawn to dry out for a few hours and now I have a 30 foot wide brown circle out back. :-/

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  42. That front last night was a lot more active than the mets predicted especially South where there were flood warnings up. I had .3 in Gananda. There were trees down in some areas as well. Looks like a steady rain for all Thursday.

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  43. That thing was just a nightmare to predict. Some models were bringing a solid line through the region while others had it fizzling on our doorstep. The front across far southern Ontario was shooting blanks much of the afternoon, POPs which had been bouncing around all day were reduced to chance range...then right after sundown that nasty line flared up out of nowhere and cranked us. I didn't get any damaging wind or hail but the lightning show was utterly ridiculous.

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  44. We got at least an inch of rain in eastern Penfield. It all fell in about 20 mins. My pool nearly overflowed the skimmer! Lots of wind damage in Clyde. I drove through and several large limbs, even trees, were down in the village.

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    Replies
    1. Surprised you received that much rain. I am not that far from you and only picked up just under .3". Shows you how local the downpours have been.

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    2. There was a narrow line of precipitation that came through on a NW --> SE direction and it got us just right. Walworth, about 10 miles away, only got nipped.

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  45. Looks like we are going to largely miss that rain on Thursday. Good news.

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  46. It also looks like another mini heat wave coming this weekend. Wont last though. I would love to see a week of dry hot weather with temps in the 90's. We just don't get that around here that often. A real heat wave.

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  47. I am not a fan on the rain, but a shower would be really nice to wet the dust down in Hamlin. VERY DRY!!!

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  48. There is nothing like a 95 deg wind blown dust storm day to make you love the summer. Bring on the fall.

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  49. Most areas of the Northeast consider three consecutive days at or above 90 to be a heat wave. A week straight would be downright absurd and quite likely unprecedented, at least for Rochester. I'm struggling to find any past occurrences of such a thing in our climate records. Personally I'm down with the state the pattern has been in recently...a few days of heat followed by a strong cold front, then back to the 70s for awhile. Rinse and repeat.

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    Replies
    1. I just looked at the KROC data I have from 1926 to 2014. (I'm too lazy to get the 2015 data right now. Actually I just don't have the time right now.) Click on my name for a .pdf or Excel file or the results but here is a summary. (Summery?)

      https://app.box.com/s/1ouamz563rpowb65s1e1jt6udrwao0jn



      In those 88 a years there have been:
      564 days of 90+ (6.4/yr)

      57 Streaks of 3+ days of 90+.
      21 Streaks of 4+ days of 90+.
      6 Streaks of 5+ days of 90+. (Most Recently July 1993)
      ZERO streaks longer than 5 days.

      That's an average of 0.65 Streaks per Summer.

      There have been 35 Summers with at least 1 Streak (40%)
      There have been 15 Summers with at least 2 Streaks (17%)
      There have been 7 Summers with 3 Streaks (9%)

      Zero Summers with more than 3 Heat Streaks.

      Delete
  50. If you need a distraction from thoughts of impending heat and drought, AccuWeather released an early look at the upcoming winter:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

    They're expecting the La Nina to be on the weak side, a scenario which has been growing steadily more plausible as the event struggles to get going. There seems to still be a chance for a low end moderate Nina, but an event on the stronger side is becoming much less likely.

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  51. CCCC what does your 12:43 post mean for our winter?

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    1. The only thing I can say with confidence is that a weaker Nina would exert less of an influence on our winter pattern than a stronger one would, so we'd be less likely to have a standard La Nina type winter (i.e. coldest air along the west coast of Canada, more intermittent cold in the east, strong subtropical ridge, inland/cutter storm track, etc). It would also make the upcoming winter much more difficult to predict. Keep in mind that we're still in low predictability land when it comes to ENSO, and current forecasts call for some trade wind strengthening that could serve to get the Nina ball rolling. But if you're looking for a high end event then you're already running out of road.

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    2. What are the PNA and PDO up to? With a weak ENSO, the northern and eastern Pacific become greater factors.

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    3. The PDO is still pretty healthy. If we get weak ENSO forcing then it will likely remain through the winter. The QBO is another factor to consider going forward. Right now it's predicted to transition into its negative phase, which would promote a weaker and more vulnerable PV. But apparently it's been behaving in very strange ways over the past year, which could throw a big time wrench into more than just the winter forecast. Anthony Masiello tweeted a thread about it several days ago:

      https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/743900966005669888

      It's a bit technobabbly, but the gist is that QBO waves of a semi predictable frequency should propagate downward from the upper layers of the stratosphere at a rate of around 0.6 miles per month. But during September of last year all of the critical layers between 10 mb and 50 mb peaked at the same time, rather than peaking one after the other like what should happen as a wave propagates. On top of that, the oscillation's index value recently spiked upward after several months of decline, which is highly unusual. If this proves to be more than just a blip then some of the basic things we claim to understand about the QBO may need to be reworked.

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    4. A weaker and more vulnerable PV is what we need...combined with a +PDO...looks like a 12-13, 13-14, 14-15 potential repeat... ?!?!?! Getting excited already. Just let me have this.

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    5. Declining solar would also favor more high latitude blocking. But like I said, the QBO is behaving strangely and may still end up positive for the winter. And if Nina forcing ramps up then the PDO may substantially weaken or even flip to negative. My favorite analog right now is 83-84, mainly due to similarities in the Pacific SST configuration between that winter and the NMME prediction plus the fact that it followed a super Nino.

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  52. I know beggars can't be choosers so I will not complain about the prospects of a weak La Nina event this upcoming winter as it will offer a much better chance at a somewhat consistent winter unlike the bi-polar super torch of 2015-2016 we hope to never experience again. BUT, a moderate event would definitely make up for it! As C4 said, probably not going to happen, but we have plenty of time left for a small miracle to happen...

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  53. Not much rain in the forecast the next 7 days so we will probably be in a minor drought come July.

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  54. The latest Euro weekly depicts much of July with warmer than average temps following a cool start.

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  55. Looking a little farther ahead, there is little hope for any
    beneficial rain over the next 10 days to 2 weeks with medium range
    model guidance showing nothing more than a few weak frontal passages
    followed by long stretches of dry/sunny high pressure. This will
    bring a worsening of the very dry soil conditions currently found
    across the bulk of the area.

    I am loving this. The grass will go dormant ad will come back as soon as it rains. This is what summer should be.


    Enjoy it while we can!!!!!

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  56. Once again I find myself feeling grateful for the miracle plant known as aloe vera.

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  57. Corn behind my house is ankle high by the 4th of July

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  58. Always beware of fear mongering...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/30/claim-that-jet-stream-crossing-equator-is-climate-emergency-is-utter-nonsense/

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  59. Some areas received heavy rain yesterday in Genesee and Wyoming counties as well as Western Monroe. That lines of showers just set up in one place and dumped. Did anyone hear of what the rain totals were? I only picked up .09 in Gananda.

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  60. Jesus murphy GFS calm the f*ck down 0____0

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016070206/156/sfct.us_ne.png

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  61. What does that show CCCC?

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  62. Put a sponge in your underbritches type heat

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  63. Other models and more recent GFS runs make a case for much lesser heat. Still looks firmly above average for a large chunk of the month though.

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  64. Looks like we all have a good shot for rain from Thursdsy to Saturday.

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  65. Snow breeds snow...and cold breeds cold...

    Also, heat breeds heat. And dry breeds dry.

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  66. Today the sun sets on the arctic circle for the first time this year. After 23 hours and 50 minutes. Getting my Halloween decorations out this weekend.

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  67. Baby its Hot out there!

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  68. How did the airport pick up almost a half inch of rain today. No way.

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    Replies
    1. A small, very localized flare up shower ran right through south central Monroe Co. yesterday. That's probably where that recording came from.

      Delete
  69. Looks like the airport was the big winner with .42 yesterday from that little shower that dumped a lot of rain and .18 today. Most of us got shafted again. The drought looks to get worse.

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  70. It rained for about 30-40 minutes today here in eastern Penfield. Most was light, garden variety...but it did pick up in intensity for several minutes...enough to raise my pool level about 1/3 inch.

    It's all about location. I water my flowers five times per week, and I have dozens of them planted around the perimeter of the house. I use a large bucket (50 gallon) to collect rainwater off my roof. Only a few times has that container gone empty, despite how dry its been regionally. In fact, most of my lawn is still green. We have been the benefactor of several of the pop up showers/t-storms that have been in the area. Two miles in any other direction is a completely different story.

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  71. It's a "thank the great magnet for the miracles of lawn sprinklers and air conditioning" type of pattern.

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  72. Is there a reason why these storms seem to blow up over Eastern Monroe and Wayne county all the time. Just curious.

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    Replies
    1. Yes. The reason is the lake breeze boundary. Basically, the lake provides a nice cool breeze onshore many days. When this runs into the hot, humid airmass that has been prevalent the past several days, lift occurs as the warm, moist air is forced upwards. It is a mini-cold front that happens 5-10 miles inland.

      Storms popped up in western Monroe Co. today, along that aforementioned lake breeze boundary.

      Delete
  73. OK. Lets guess who will get the pop up thunderstorms this afternoon. Eastern Monroe into Western Wayne counties I my guess.

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  74. If you're looking for current station data through the NWS outage, the FTP server for formatted METAR observations is still up:

    ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/observations/metar/decoded/

    This is the data file for KROC:

    ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/observations/metar/decoded/KROC.TXT

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  75. Also my guess on where t-storms pop up today is the Finger Lakes.

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  76. Yep. A storm popped up starting in Eastern Monroe into Western Wayne.

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  77. Wayne County is the winner again.

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  78. Wow, some big boomers in Wayne Co., especially north...

    We got about 5 drops here in eastern Penfield, but two miles south, along the Rt. 441 corridor, a storm flared up for a few minutes with some huge raindrops.

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  79. They said Walworth picked up 2" of rain. I am about 1/2 mile South of 441 in Gananda. It look's like the heaviest rain was Just North and East of me but I will look in the rain gage when I get home. Hopefully I was the 2" rainfall.

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    Replies
    1. The only thing...that 2" probably landed in a 20 minute stretch...lots of runoff rather than absorption. My parents report no rain along the lakeshore in Greece.

      Delete
  80. Did not pick up 2" but got .39". Probably came down in buckets and most ran off but I will take it. Tomorrow looks to be a good bet that everyone gets some rain. Wayne County has been pretty lucky this summer with rain.

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    Replies
    1. Not southeastern Wayne Co. Dry as bone according to friend near the Seneca Co. line. It's been similar to lake effect - impact varies dramatically even within zip codes.

      My grass is about 30% brown at this point. Still need to mow every week. As mentioned previously, my area of Penfield has scored most of the rain that has fallen in the area, except today.

      Delete
  81. Hamlin is extremely dry. It has been 3 weeks without rain at my house. We had a few sprinkles here and there, but nothing to keep the dust down. The 4 acres of yard I mow is ALL brown. I still have to mow the weeds, but only once every 3 weeks. This is the driest I have seen it since I have lived here(11 years).

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  82. Genesee river at 5 and 20 is the lowest I have ever seen it. Looks like a mud puddle.

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  83. Well, after today, we are toast. Literally. There's a chance for storms next week, but it be very localized. The abnormally dry weather will continue for at least ten more days, probably the rest of the month.

    My dam grass continues to grow...especially around the septic leech field :-|

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  84. Most areas are now in a severe drought or moderate drought. Monroe and Wayne counties are still just abnormally dry as we have been lucky with the scattered storms.

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  85. In Victor where I work there is not green grass to be found. There is a major difference once you enter Wayne and Monroe counties. Grass is much greener.

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    Replies
    1. That's not completely true. It's funny driving through neighborhoods and seeing immediately who waters their lawn.

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    2. I remember all of the crusty brown lawns in my parents' neighborhood several summers ago, but there was one exception...the neighbors across the street, whose lawn and garden were both as lush as ever. Seeing that contrast on a daily basis was pretty hilarious.

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  86. So far it hasn't been as hot as 2012 was, but the drought is much worse. I bring that up because 2012 was the last hot/dry summer we had before this one.

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    1. It also followed a mediocre winter, like this summer has. Summer 2002 was also a scorcher, and we all remember what the winter of 2001-02 was like (if you don't, it was similar to last winter). I believe there were 21 days of 90 F+ that summer.

      So, this decade, we are three-for-three with weak winters followed by hot summers.

      The winters following the last two weak winter/hot summer combinations:

      2002-03: Consistently cold and snowy with only two brief warm-ups (one in December, one in February) with frequent outbreaks of frigidity due to a steadily negative -AO/-NAO and and endless supply of 3-6" clippers and reinforcing cold.

      2012-13: An average winter in terms of snowfall and temperatures.

      Just for your speculative consideration....

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    2. Lock in at least a decent winter!

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    3. 2012-13 was actually a fairly mild winter with below average snowfall (78" total). Additionally, both that winter and 2002-03 occurred on the tail end of weakening cold ENSO episodes...a key difference between those situations and the current one.

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    4. My historical perspective of winters goes beyond the immediate area and is driven by a combination of local (ROC) weather and weather where my camp is (Oswego Co). That winter was "average" in reference to normal north of Syracuse, though slightly warmer than average. Many days in the lower 30s.

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    5. I remember a lot of the lake effect that winter being aimed squarely at the Oswego/Fulton area, especially in late January. Nearly a full week of bitter cold but ROC was dry as a bone the entire time.

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  87. I am ok with this dry weather as long as my grass does not die. It will eventually rain.

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  88. My area is getting dumped on again. I am just getting lucky. It is pouring.

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    1. I saw that on the radar. The biggest of the localized event today skirted the SE corner of Monroe / SW corner of Wayne...i.e., Snowdog's Palace and Museum of Underused Snow Removal Equipment.

      It just missed us. I saw the northern edge of it cross just to the south. I'm sure it was wet just over the county line.

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  89. Surprisingly I only picked up .17 of rain today from that storm but I will take it. That makes about .57 for the week.

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  90. Nice to see areas South of Rochester get the rain finally. Many areas that really needed it got it this AM. Erie, Genesee, Livingston, Ontario. I actually did not get any rain in Gananda.

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  91. Finally. Gates getting hammered with several downpours.

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  92. CNIP reports over 1" of rain in E. Penfield. If you were monitoring radar, you probably saw the line of storms that tracked across central Monroe Co. We got all of it. I use 20 gallon buckets for collecting rainwater under two downspouts; both are overfilled and spilling out. My pool level went up at least a full inch, probably more (hard to tell with solar cover on it).

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  93. Wow. The airport only picked up .07" of rain from those downpours. That seems impossible. Not sure what Gananda received but I think most of the heavy rain was North of me where you live Chris. I think you are North of Gananda.

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  94. I suppose it's possible the airport got .07" of rain but I live 2 miles from the airport in Gates and had to have over an inch.

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  95. If you're willing to believe the radar estimated rainfall then it would seem that the airport got donut-holed.

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  96. Also the heaviest amounts occurred right on top of Penfield.

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  97. Hamlin also got the shaft. Not even enough rain to wet the roads today let alone measure in any gauges.

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  98. Picked up 1" of rain in Gananda. Very nice. The grass loved it. Eastern Monroe and Wayne County has been lucky this summer. I wish I was this luck during the winter!!!! LOL

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  99. How much of that central US heat are we going to see?

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  100. Looks like 4 days of 90 or better here. No 100's thank God.

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    1. Hasn't been 100 F in ROC in 63 years. Pretty hard to pull off around here with our topography and geographic location.

      On a side note, we added solar panels to our roof this year. Not only haven't we had a net RGE bill in two months, but the panels have been absorbing a lot of the heat and keeping it off of the roof. Despite no central air or AC units outside of our bedroom, the warmest the house has been is 79 F (first floor). I bet it would be lower than that, too, if people and offspring would learn to keep the doors shut and not opening and closing them dozens of times per day.

      After we came back from a weekend away on the 4th of July, despite 85 F outside each day, the house was a coooool 69 F when we walked in Monday afternoon 7/5.

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  101. In regards to the drought. The rain on Monday was widespread and hit many of the areas that really needed it like Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston and Ontario counties plus the Finger Lakes. Many areas saw .5-1.00" of rain or even more in some areas. The drought has improved. My guess is that the next drought report that comes out will show Eastern Monroe and most of Wayne as normal instead of abnormally dry.

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    1. Yeah. The Buffalo airport recorded almost nothing. They get bypassed all the time this summer.

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    2. I spent too many summers trapped inside that godforsaken lake shadow to be remotely surprised.

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  102. I was wrong. The severe drought expanded and the moderate drought expanded to included all of Monroe and Wayne counties. I don't get that even after the heavy rainfall on Monday???????

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    1. My guess is that most of the rainfall ran off instead of soaking into the ground. What we really need is a steady long-lasting light to moderate rainfall so that the soil has a chance to absorb more of what falls.

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  103. Not going to hit 90 today if it stays this cloudy

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  104. There is 1 lonely shower out there and guess where it visited. Gananda. LOL.

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  105. Took a motorcycle ride from Greece to Pultneyville and back to Penfield today. In Greece, it was 91 F, according to my bike's outside temp gauge. Went over the Bay Bridge, down Bay Rd and went all the way to P-ville on Lake Road. The closer I was to the lake, the cooler it got. The lowest temp I saw was 81 F. Just a half-mile inland, it shot right back up to 86 F. I noted the lake shadow effect as I rode east, seeing the clouds to the south, blue skies to the north. I turned around in Pultneyville and headed west. Sure enough, a raincloud quickly formed along the lake breeze boundary. It appears to be south of 104 in eastern Monroe Co. It was sunny on Lake Road when I turned south on Salt Rd in Webster. Drops were hitting my helmet as I passed Xerox. An all-out downpour hit me as I went south of 104, all the way to Atlantic Ave (Rt. 286). As luck would have it, I rode right through the heart of the storm. It was raining here at my house in eastern Penfield, but the hardest rain was east and slightly north of me. As the rain hugged the boundary, it went south and rained on Snowdog. That disturbance is now in Lyons. I see another little raincloud bubbled up along 490 East just now...

    I have pics and a video of when I pulled over to record the cloudless lakeshore, then panned to the storm that eventually nailed me as I headed inland. Too bad we can't post those here.

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  106. That's cool Chris. I wish you could post them as well. I ended up picking barely measureable rain here. Like you said the heaviest hit north of me. Just enough here to wet the ground. It is amazing that these storms keep hitting the same area over and over again. Eastern Monroe into Western Wayne. Not that its a lot of rain but if the aea is going to get a shower that's where they form.

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  107. Hamlin is under the lake Erie shadow as well as lake Ontario. If you don't like pop up Thunder storms move to the Niagara Frontier. The dust bowl continues without an end in site. Bring on winter, I don't want to live in the desert any longer.

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    1. "If you don't like pop up Thunder storms *but do like elevated nighttime humidity* move to the Niagara Frontier."

      FTFY. Lake Erie has a nasty habit of enhancing every single unpleasant aspect of summer, from droughts to borderline unbearable sleeping conditions. Case in point: KBUF dewpoint is 72 right now, highest in the entire state.

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  108. I love the storms. Its keeping my grass somewhat greener. I have been lucky this summer with these pop up storms. We are still in a drought but not as bad as west of here.

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    1. I haven't been able to take a week off from mowing since the growing season started. Only about half my lawn needs to be cut but it is high enough to justify the effort. I just do the whole dam thing.

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  109. Hetsko is going to be low on his 15 days of 90's prediction. Who woulda thunk it?

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  110. We need 3 more to meet the prediction. That may realistically happen by the end of next week. Even 2012 didn't have such a high frequency of max temps in the 90s despite being a hotter summer overall.

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  111. Nearby high pressure didn't stifle a stiff lake breeze today. Not much of a gradient between airmasses, I am guessing ... ?

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  112. Looks like maybe a pattern change by the end of the week to more rain. We can hope.

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  113. Looks like Niagara, Orleans, and Northern Erie getting benefice rain this am. Hamlin you are about to get pounded with heavy rain.

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  114. Almost an inch so far at the Buffalo Airport. Very good for them. Erie, Niagara and Orleans counties are the big winners so far. They needed it the most. This front definitely over-produced.

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  115. 1-2 inches reported in Erie, all of Niagara and most of Orleans. Very nice for them. Not nearly as much in Monroe and Wayne this time. Everyone got a good drought denting rain this am. Was a surprise.

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  116. Yep, this front certainly over performed. I can't blame the weather guys for being shy with this one, after so many fronts that fizzled away past the Genesee valley.

    I report about 3/4" here in Penfield, based on how much higher the pool level is compared to yesterday.

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  117. My rain gauge said .29". Surprised. I thought it would be more than that. I will take it though. The airport picked up about the same.

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  118. The rain was very nice to see. We ended up with about .65". Just enough to knock the dust down, that was all I wanted.

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  119. Hopefully the grass responds a bit, I'm sick of looking out across the American Serengeti every day.

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  120. Every one needs to stop complaining as soon the ground will be covered with wonderful white stuff, and we won't have to worry about the heat.

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  121. Only 127 days until winter...needless to say I'm not in snow mode just yet.

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    1. Me either. Autumn is my favorite season, and I am looking forward to it. I am tolerating summer better now than I have in years, despite the heat, humidity, insects, mowing, allergies, etc, etc.

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  122. Yeah because sitting inside staring out the window at the frozen tundra is so much better. It's nice to be able to actually get outside and do things.

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  123. I can put a coat on and stay comfortable in frozen tundra. I can only take so many clothes off before the cops are called. Bring on fall, definitely the best season of the year.

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  124. Winter is the best season and if you don't agree then your opinion is wrong :P

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    1. How about a tie. Followed by spring, with summer coming in at a distant 4th.

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    2. I used to put Spring 4th, but I have moved it up to 3rd. Summer is showing signs of rallying though. I used to hate the heat and humidity and hide in the A/C. Not this year. I had an attitude adjustment - doing what I wanted to do regardless of the temps and dew point. You get used to it quickly as long as you're not DIRECTLY in the sun.

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  125. Nothing worse than a constant bead of sweat running through your crevice even when you aren't moving. Summer is awful.

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    1. Don't worry winter will soon be here, and the temps and humidity will be a distant memory for you. Hang in there.

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  126. Some of you have a funny definition of "soon."

    In the meantime, it looks like low 90s are a possibility again late next week.

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  127. KW mentioned the pattern may flip to wetter and cooler in August but it will take some time.

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    1. Yuck. Wet and gloomy. Cant handle that right now. Keep it hot and dry.

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  128. Wetter during the summer doesn't always mean gloomy though.

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  129. I recently heard that if you enter any personal information (SSN, credit card number, etc) into a Google Blogger comments section that it's automatically hidden from public view.

    Example: •••-••-••••, ••••••••••••••••

    Pretty neat stuff ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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  130. Amazing to watch the forecast that comes out of the NWS in Buffalo. It changes almost hour by hour. Yesterday they went from heavy rain with over an inch of rain to heavy rain with .5 to .75. Then they went to scattered shower and thunderstorms with. 25 to .5 and now almost no rain for us today. There is nothing showing on radar right now. We will see.

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  131. The only discernible patch of rain is currently lifting slowly northeastward across the Niagara Peninsula.

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  132. Also please do not post your sensitive personal information onto blogspot dot com.

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  133. Looks like Wayne county actually missed out on all the rain so far. Niagara and Orleans did well. Western Monroe got some but not a lot. Where the storms form they are just sitting there.

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