SIGNS OF THAT COLD AIR COMING...
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
You don't need me to tell you that the winter is quickly approaching us. Now we start looking for the signs of that colder air moving south out of Canada. So it is later this week that we'll get our first glimpse of cold central Canada air.
The passing of the 540 (dark blue hashed) line south of our area means that it's chilly. This could even mean high elevation snow in areas in northern Vermont like Mt. Washington etc. For us, it'll ensure a consistent cloud cover with small chances for sprinkles or a few showers.
Get used to temperature swings. Our preliminary winter thoughts are for moderate cold bursts throughout the winter months, very similar to this one.
wouldn't sharp temp swings this winter lead to a more amplified pattern which would lead to more storminess across our area this winter?
ReplyDeleteYou got it! It's called a Meridional flow, and it is responsible for many instances of extreme temp swings and severe winter weather. This is opposed to a zonal flow, which brings WNY mild, pacific air with little fluctuations in temp and weather. So a Meridional flow
ReplyDeleteis good if you like active weather....though not always necessarilly "white" weather.
I think we'll be on the mild (and possibly destructively windy) side of storms more than once this winter, as lows rapidly deepen and pass JUST to our west...followed by a flash freeze and brief but intense bout of lake effect.
That depends on WHERE the primary jet-stream sets up. We're definitely going to be active but it's too early to tell whether the scenario above will verify. This Winter won't be solely dependent on La Nina only but fluctuation in the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation as well.
ReplyDeleteScott or Brian,
ReplyDeleteAre the current patterns lending any subtle clues as to what pattern might evolve later into the winter, or is it virtually unknowable at this point? Also, are you familiar with the possible connection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the NAO later in the winter?
This means that we will miss all the stroms since they will pass West of us leaving us with the boring cold front and lake effect in areas that normally receive good lake effect snow. Many of the storms went to our west last year. It seems like this winter will be the same except the storms will miss us to the West instead of to the South. What type of pattern do we need to see a true winter like they used to be.
ReplyDeleteI assume when you say "true winter like they used to be," you're talking about what people say the old fashioned winters used to be when they walked 5 miles up hill bare foot to school in 10 feet of snow. That's a myth. The fact is, we've had more snow in just the last decade than most years over the last 70 years. It perhaps was colder back then...and maybe the snow that did fall, stuck on the ground longer...but it wasn't snowier overall. It's snowier now. And furthermore, it seemed harshed for folks back then because, quite frankly, technology and weather-proofing sucked. So everything was 10 times more difficult during bad winter weather.
ReplyDeletePersonally, my favorite track for snowstorms is Pittsburgh to State College to Binghamton (where it stalls out), then a track up central/eastern NY to about Saranac Lake, where it then begins to regrograde toward Watertown. You don't want the low to get TOO much slower than this or you'll start having to watch the dry slot, which can sneak in and ruin a good snow forecast.
ReplyDeletetypo above...
ReplyDelete**"slower than this" = "closer than this"
Impossible to know how the primary storm track will be this early but I have my suspicions. I would LOVE that track mentioned above which would be about the best track for snow here. I do expect many "Colorado Lows" to track up the Appalachians but then it depends on where from there....
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeletehow rare was last year's late Feb snowstorm when the low bombed out around NYC then regrograded back? I remember it raining mostly north and east of watertown, then it snowed farther south. The warm tongue of air was actually ABOVE the low, rather than to the right of it. That's the most bizarre track and rain / snow line i've ever seen. Also, what caused the temps to unexpectedly plummet that night? It dipped into the teens, seemingly out of nowhere, when all forecasters (including the NWS) called for temps to slowly rise. Also bizarre to me.
I like a DC to Binghamton to Utica track. Pretty much the same track as the other bloggers except I like the origin of the low to be from the eastern sea board so its more potent.
ReplyDelete