WINDY DAYS AHEAD
Wow! What a storm! This is the NAM model forecast for midnight Wednesday, and boy is it impressive if you're looking for winds. This storm bombs out into the 970 mb range at the core, with tightly packed isobars indicating an almost guaranteed setup for high winds. This storm is also the one that will be responsible for our climbing temperatures in the middle of the week.
Its still a long way out, but I have to assume 30-40 mph winds are likely with this storm late Tuesday into Wednesday. With the setup, including the unseasonably warm surface air, we'll be unstable enough to even warrant looking for thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. It's uncharacteristic but not unheard of for us in October.
Bob,
ReplyDeleteYou note "High" winds with this setup. High winds is a severe weather term with damaging gusts of 58 MPH or greater. That would warrant a High Wind Watch and then ultimately a Warning. Did you mean high winds, or just strong winds?
It seems like the winter pattern is already setting up. Storms passing to our West. We warm up ahead of the storm and then we get a quick shot of cold air before the next storm passes to our West. Oh boy!!! Not another one of these winters.
ReplyDeleteI agree. It seems that once you start getting several storms in a row taking a similar track in October into November, that is usually a sign of that pattern repeating itself over and over again throughout the winter. Seems most mets are trying to stay somewhat optimistic about a decent snowy winter, but we never win in the snow department when we get the shaft from those western cutter lows. We get scraps on the back side and maybe some brief lake effect. Nickel and dimed all winter long as we watch the blizzards rage in Michigan. I hope Scott or Brian can assure me that it won't be that bad for us snow lovers. Any bit of assurance would help lol.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure the term "high" doesn't have to be associated with severe winds. So he meant strong winds which may reach advisory limits. As for this Winter, the track we are seeing take shape should be the dominate track this Winter. We will have a variable Winter with lots of thaws as well as decent snow.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteA couple years ago (I think the winter of 2008-09...or maybe 2007-08), we had a track in December that featured low after low tracking from the midwest and across southern or central PA. We ended up getting a series of overachieving snow events that tracked perfectly over our area along the 90 corridor. December 19th comes to mind as a big snow event on that track that year. I remember it taking 90 minutes to drive from North Winton rd and Blossom, to Jefferson and Winton in Henrietta. Do you know which year that was and if we'll see any similar tracks to that?