COLD AIR 7 TO 10 DAYS AWAY
Written By: Scott HetskoAs we enjoy the warmest weather of the month, our long term forecast is for colder air approaching Thanksgiving week. Beginning later next week, a series of cold fronts will bring progressively colder air-masses into the Northern Plains states and eventually toward the Northeast.
Temperatures will likely only be in the 30s and lower 40s from November 23rd through the 29th with some flurries or lake snow possible. Obviously it is WAY too early to be specific but I'm confident in saying that our first cold period is on target for later November.
Hey Scott why don't you just eliminate the "comment" option from your little blog since 10 percent of every comment or question is replied to. A very thoughtful and curious question was posed on November 10th regarding the 850 temperatures, and out of three meteorologists, not one person replied back. If you don't want to answer the question, that's cool, but at least acknowledge that person's question. Maybe you guys are more into communicating with the community through twitter and facebook rather than this blog, and that's fine. But c'mon, when you see someone spent a good amount of time to write clearly and ask a very thoughtful question....don't be rude.
ReplyDeleteIt's only been two days but you're right, we sometimes get SO MANY questions that they are hard to get to all the time. My answer to your question is on the previous blog, thanks and I'm sorry.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott, if you haven't already, you should pick up the latest copy of "City Newspaper; Best of Rochester Edition." In it, you were chosen by the community as "Best TV Weather Person."
ReplyDeleteCongrats!
I appreciate any time that any of the News 8 weather guys respond to this blog. It is above and beyond their duties, and I thank them for it. I enjoy this blog and have learned so much about our local weather.
ReplyDeleteI echo Chris's remarks. If you don't like the response time, don't post a comment. I feel fortunate to have this forum to discuss weather with PRO Mets. Great job guys!
ReplyDeleteI did hear about the from City Newspaper. I was psyched to win again, I did a few years back too. It's a really good feeling to know people enjoy what you do on air.
ReplyDeleteThe daily blogs by the Channel 8 / Fox Rochester weather team is above and beyond. No argument there. I'd go so far as to say Scott and his team are the best professional meteorologists in Rochester. But having said that, how many of you actually bother to ask questions any deeper than, "i'm going fishing, how's the weekend looking?" That's a fine question, don't get me wrong. But most of the time these blogs go days or weeks with "0 comments." It's easy to say how appreciative you are and imply my comment was out of line when you barely ever interact other than reading. The comment bar is there for a reason - to interact and ask questions. That's how Scott promoted it on TV, anyway. I'm the one who asked that question on the 10th. I'm also the individual who gave a heads up of the surprise lake ERIE lake effect event that caught Rochester off guard last December. I'm not a meteorologist, but I do have a relatively strong foundation in this stuff compared to the average person. I'm very appreciative of Scott and his team taking the time to keep us updated through this blog, and I completely understand that they probably get bogged down by emails, tweets and facebook questions constantly, but I just think the responses on this blog could use some improvement. Yes it was "only" two days, and hindsight is 20-20. History tells me that qustions wasn't going to get answered if I didn't follow up.
ReplyDeleteCheck out this article from NASA. Apparently the Indonesia volcano has indeed spewed SO2 into the upper atmosphere - possibly enough to impact our la nina winter pattern:
ReplyDeletehttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=46881
Well, here we go. The upper midwest is getting slammed with snow due to a storm passing well to our West. We will not get colder until the end of the week and as the National Weather Service states, it will be fleeting cold and will not last. This will be the winter pattern. Fleeting cold and a few snow flurries and lake flurries for some and then we warm up for a longer period of time.
ReplyDeleteThe problem looks to be, when the cold air arrives, we'll have maybe a 12-hour period where conditions are OK for lake effect production, before the cyclonic flow becomes anti-cyclonic, and warm air begins to advect in from the south and west. Not to mention all the good precip will be ahead of the cold fronts, so there goes any good synoptic snow.
ReplyDeleteThis winter is going to be crappy if you like snow. My guess is 70-80 inches for Rochester.
ReplyDeletei think we are going to get over 100 inches it is possible and we just need to stay postive
ReplyDeletei think we are going to get over 100 inches it is possible and we just need to stay positive
ReplyDeleteI'd say between 80-95 inches this winter. It's going to be tough to get wholloped by major snow storms one after another. The pattern looks to become quite progressive, so we won't get locked into those patterns where we find ourselves with 45" of snow in a single month. We'll get major synoptic events, but only 15 percent of each individual event will actually be in the form of snow. Also, lake effect will be short lived and frequently on a westerly wind which favors Oswego county up to the Tug Hill. Lake shore communities Hamlin to Greece to extreme N'ern Irondequoit and Webster will likely reach the 100" mark, but probably won't go over by too much. Once you get south of Henrietta (toward Rush and Mendon), it will be an unfortunate winter for snow lovers. Probably only 60-75 inches there. Livingston county, centered around Geneseo looks to be the real snowfall losers, with that area struggling to make it above 50" for the entire winter. They'll be too far removed from the lake effect (which is typical), and much of the weak clipper-type systems will lose their moisture once that get much past a Perry to Leroy line. With that said, we may have a few days where it snows throughout the day in Warsaw, Batavia, Albion and west, while the precip seems to continually fizzle before it reaches the Genesee Valley. All in all, I think it will be a decent snow year for the Niagara frontier (Orleans and Genesee counties westward), and isolated pockets within 3 miles of lake Ontario. But the rest of the region should see below average snowfall. Let's hope i'm wrong!
ReplyDeleteSnowfall amounts are always highly dependent on where you are. Lakeshore areas will get much more snow than communities South of 5 and 20. Our winter special will air next Saturday night and the end of the show features our winter outlook. Snowfall for the season will be given at that time.
ReplyDeleteCan't wait Scott. I always love your winter specials. Call me a major geek, but I already made sure my schedule is free for the time slot your show is on!
ReplyDeleteScotty is Buffalo snowier than Rochester?
ReplyDeleteI am not Scotty, but I will try to answer. For the long term average, I believe has less snow by a few inches than Rochester. However, it is highly dependent upon the year. One thing that is pretty consistent in terms of comparing the two cities' snowfall is that Buffalo is far more likely to be snowy earlier than Rochester. This has to do with late fall/early winter winds that tend to blow out of the west and southwest, hitting Buffalo with Lake Erie effect snow. Also, Lake Erie is much shallower than Ontario, so it freezes over most years, shutting down lake effect through late January and February. Buffalo also tends to miss most nor'easters, being too far west. Rochester has a greater likelihood of getting those storms, particularly the eastern counties of the Rochester metro, like Wayne and Seneca.
ReplyDelete