COLDER, SOME SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Long range signs continue to point to an Eastern trough deepening here in the Northeast from Thanksgiving into the holiday weekend.
It will be cold enough to produce snow showers off the Great Lakes with an other upper air disturbance possibly enhancing lake snows over the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 30s for highs and 20s for overnight lows.
There will some accumulation in the area but we are way too far out to be specific. Get your cars and yourself ready for winter driving!
Long range signs continue to point to an Eastern trough deepening here in the Northeast from Thanksgiving into the holiday weekend.
It will be cold enough to produce snow showers off the Great Lakes with an other upper air disturbance possibly enhancing lake snows over the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 30s for highs and 20s for overnight lows.
There will some accumulation in the area but we are way too far out to be specific. Get your cars and yourself ready for winter driving!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteWould this be a year to invest in snow tires for myself, or won't we have enough "trechorous" winter driving conditions to warrant dropping 400 bucks on tires? I figure it's not a worthy investment if their not badly needed at least 5 or 6 times in one winter.
I'll put it to you this way, my tires will go on next week. (4) snow tires is the way to go to me it's worth the investment. We always get enough snow around here to justify the cost.
ReplyDeleteI second that. Four tires is important. If you have front wheel drive and you just put snows on the front tires, you'll risk the back end spinning out. Trust me, I speak from experience. I didn't listen to the mechanics advice and just got two snows for the front. The first heavy snowfall the back end fish tailed right into a tree. I wasn't injured thankfully, but you can bet I went out and got the other two snows for the back tires the next day!
ReplyDeleteWe have an expert from Midas on our weather special Saturday night at 7:30 on channel 8 talking about the very same thing! It's really no use unless you get 4.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS is coming in line with the Euro in bringing the storm for Thanksgiving well to our West leaving us with a broken up cold front. Let the winter crappy pattern begin.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS is also coming in line with the euro in that it now has the cold air MUCH more short lived before milder pacific air floods the region as early as Sunday. It not looks like we'll get a 36 hour period of winter cold and that's about it. With that said, it is a bit hard to believe considering the indices will be more favorable for lots of troughiness in the east by then. But with two powerful computer models agreeing more or less, with only minor timing differences, it can't be discounted just yet. I will say though, that the milder pacific air doesn't look to stay too long before chillier air moves in by early to mid week after thanksgiving. Only looks seasonably chilly, however. Temps likely marginal for LES, and probably some lake plain rain / snow mix.
ReplyDeleteYep, I saw that as well. A quit hit and then mild again. I still say very little snow in November and only 12-15 at most in December. I think this year will be a blockbuster for the West and upper Midwest.
ReplyDeleteThe 12z GFS does have a major lake effect snow storm for Buffalo. I'm not buying it at this point, as the models have been jumping all over the place. But if anyone will be traveling From Batavia west toward Buffalo on Turkey Day, according to the 12z GFS, That are will get buried by heavy snow, gusty winds and probably even some lightning with the intense instability.
ReplyDeleteGreat. Just I wanted. To be a spectator once again.
ReplyDeleteHere's specifically what i'm talking about. The low just to the North and West would create a well aligned WSW flow up the fetch of lake Erie. Combined with that, there will be sufficient moisture, and temperatures at 850 will be around -10C. Lake Erie is currently +9C (49F). That would create more than enough instability, as we only need a 13C difference between the lake surface and 5,000 feet up (the 850 mb level). Anything greater than that just adds to the instability. Long story short, if this pans out, there will be a lot of news reports about Buffalo's major Thanksgiving day snow storm and probably some stranded people. Again, just a heads up to anybody traveling west down the I90 toward Buffalo. May not pan out, as the models are about as bi-polar as they've ever been, but just something to be mindful of.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_126m.gif
One additional note: Depending on the boundary layer wind speeds, I wouldn't be surprised if the band makes it to Western Monroe county, especially around Churchville, Chili Ogden, Brockport. It could even graze the City of Rochester itself, though with much less intensity than say around Batavia westward.
ReplyDeleteSorry, not interested in hearing about a storm that will only be 50 miles away from us and we will only see a few flurries here in Rochester if what you say pans out. It will probably change a thousand times before Thanksgiving even arrives.
ReplyDeletewell maybe we can get a small change in wind direction from west to NW and give Rochester a good snowfall
ReplyDeleteOur whopping 3-4 inches lake effect event compared to BUffalo's 2-3 feet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThe Euro model looks NOTHING like the GFS model now. The model chaos continues. I wouldn't put stock in anything until at least Monday or Tuesday of next week. The model differences so far this fall have been especially bad. I wonder if the global weather patterns are all out of whack and making the models less accurate.
ReplyDeleteThat is true. Rochester's lake effect could never compare to Buffalo's. As the saying goes, "go big or go home." Well that's how it works with lake effect in Buffalo. If you like to get nickeled and dimed all winter to come up with a deceiving snowfall total by the end of the year, then Rochester is your place. But if you want to get 2 or 3 storms that literally paralyze a city in its place with feet upon feet of snow in a single event, then Buffalo is your place.
ReplyDeleteI hate being nickle and dimed all year and being a spectator to BIG lake effect snowstorms to our West and East and missing every east coast storm year after year. How we manage to receive 100 inches a year is beyond me.
ReplyDeleteThe gives us that quick shot of cold, and then we're balmy pretty much for the rest of the month with a major zonal / pacific flow taking over much of the country. doesn't really make sense given the indices (NOA, AO and PNA), but I wouldn't be shocked. I said before, it always seems like this happens every fall - the cold gets delayed time and time again, and then the true pattern change to winter happens right around or just after Christmas. Then we'll get half our seasons snow in about 4 weeks. It will happen again this year, just watch.
ReplyDeletewell guys, for what it's worth, there are virtually no models in agreement right now for an event that is only 5-6 days away. The reality of later next week will likely be something entirely different. The ensembles don't agree with the operations models (ECMWF and GFS)....The operational models don't agree with one another, or even themselves for that matter as they're flip flopping with every run...and then those don't agree with the projected NOA, AO and PNA indices. Fact is, for whatever reason, the northern hemisphere's climate is extra complicated for our computers lately. Don't know if it has to do with La Nina or climate change or recent volcanos or low solar activity or what. But I say, let's just wait and see. And even if all this cold and snow turns out to be a bust, remember it's only late November. Truly cold and snowy conditions don't typically stick around long this time of year yet anyway. Give it a few more weeks when it really counts and see where we're at. It's early enough to try to stay patient (I, too, have to remind myself of that). The mere fact that mother nature has been doing some crazy things lately (remember that historically low pressure system that slammed the midwest a few weeks ago?) tells me that she has a few tricks up her sleave this winter.
ReplyDeleteScott, Brian or Bob,
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering what your hunch is on the latest 12z Euro basically flooding the nation with zonal pacific air quickly behind the cold shot next week. Is it in la-la land or could it be on to something that the other models aren't seeing yet?
I say this every year that these models are simply not reliable after 4 days. They are designed for more trending than actual forecasting. This is why I would rather a 5 day forecast than 7 but I lost that battle a long time ago.
ReplyDeleteYou can speculate all you want over the weekend but until we get to Monday, I wouldn't take much stock in what any model forecasts. We are developing a La Nina pattern so West tracking storms can be expected most of this winter.
Thanks Scott. It's probably healthy to hear a calming, cautionary note from the professional, considering these model flip-flops are making us weather-fanatics a little loony lol.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of losing the battle with the 7-day, I assume you're talking about being forced to keep up with competition to make a longer range forecast for the viewers? Anyway, I understand what you mean with that. We've come a long way technologically, and can get an IDEA of what MIGHT happen beyond 5-7 days, but that cone of error really expands beyond 5 days regardless of our powerful computer models. Instances like today and the last several days are perfect examples of that. The models aren't handling the weather patterns well at all. It seems that they've been struggling more lately. Don't know why. But the moral of the story is, so much can change beyond our sight after 5 days out. You're a great professional to acknowledge that rather than push for these long range forecasts (7-10 days). Joe Bastardi is a great man. He is a meteorologist to the core. But it's unfortunate how he jumps on these ideas that are SO far out in time, with such great confidence, without acknowledging the great uncertainties.
Very discouraged at the Winter outlook offered by channel 8. 75-100 inches and leaning more towards the 75. We just cannot get a good winter around here. Whether it is La Nina or El Nino we seem to get left in the dust. Last year the storms passed to our West and South and East with El Nino. This year the storms will pass to our West with La Nina. We cannot win no matter what.
ReplyDeleteI think the channel 8 winter outlook is right on the money. We need a "non-enso" year. In other words, we need a year with no el ninos or la ninas present. The good thing is, strong el ninos and la ninas are, by far, the exception more than the rule. These strong events, whether it be la nina or el nino, tend to fight against the cold, snowy effects of a negative NAO and AO. Neutral conditions to very weak enso conditions are preferable, as it can really allow the NAO to go wild in the east. I wish it wasn't true, but there's really no reason to expect a blockbuster year snowfall-wise. It is what it is, I suppose. But hey, look at it this way, a snowfall forecast for 75-100 inches is still pretty darn good when you compare it to your average northern U.S city. I'm sure if Scott were to give that forecast to his hometown in Scranton, or Brian to Indianapolis, snow fans would be jumping for joy for the prospects of a HUGE above average snowfall year. It's all a matter of perspective.
ReplyDeleteThis winter is going to suck!!!!
ReplyDelete