NOT JUST LAKE EFFECT SATURDAY?!
I'm looking at this latest run of the NAM and I think that some non-lake effect snow showers could fly during the day Saturday. This image is for the morning hours of Saturday and it's a disturbance that will actually kill the lake effect band off of Lake Erie, however there may be enough moisture and lift to allow for scattered light snow showers across the area. It wouldn't amount to much of anything, but my first inclination to say sun would come out quick isn't likely going to happen. Either way, once this all passes, we'll clear out nicely in time for Sunday with absolutely gorgeous weather returning Monday. Temperatures will also rebound nicely, back to the upper 40s by Monday.
Scott had mentioned a chance of some heavier snow for a short period of time from the lake enhancement do you think that is a possibility
ReplyDeleteI was wondering the same thing. Usually in these situations a narrow band of brief but quite intense lake effect crashes across the southern shore of lake ontario as the trough passes. The NAM has been hinting at that.
ReplyDeleteWe got our dusting. YEah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
ReplyDeleteI think that as the trough passes and the winds veer, there will be a squall line that crosses the northern half of Monroe county at some point Saturday and briefly reduces visibility to near zero.
ReplyDeleteBoy we are really stretching for a little snow. If we get anything it will be minor at most.
ReplyDeleteI was hoping for consecutive Novembers with 0 snow. Gonna be close.
ReplyDeleteHere in the Bristol Hills we woke up to about 3-4 inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteRadar is starting to show some areas of snow... moving south across the lake
ReplyDeleteGood morning, where I live in Brighton there was a coating at 2am (yes I was still up) there was a little more. Hard to measure when it is so light and the ground is so warm.
ReplyDeleteYes I see the area of snow off of Lake Ontario drifting south. I think we will see some of that today. Some may getting a coating, maybe a little more but nothing really significant. Enjoy your weekend everyone.
I guess there is still the chance that even though it will be light overall maybe someone will get a period of heavier snow that accumulates to 1-2 inches today that would be nice
ReplyDeleteWell so much for the snow squall possiblity today. I like how the National Weather Service put out a Special Weather Statement for a burst of heavy snow with low visibility and 1-2 inches falling in a short period of time....and then when it didn't materialize, instead of cancelling the statement, they just pretended it happened, ignoring reality. That's not the first time they've pulled that.
ReplyDeleteWe did not even see a flurry today. Sunny most of the day in Western Wayne County.
ReplyDeleteWe will end the month with not even a half inch of snow. Wow. How pathetic.
ReplyDeleteNo snow in the forecast for the foreseeable future. We may go through the 1st half of December with nothing.
ReplyDeletenaw, there's actually a good bet we'll see a dose of lake effect Wednesday night through Thursday or Friday of this coming week. A sharp cold front will cross the region on Wednesday followed by a moist WNW flow to allow that lake effect. Also, most models are suggesting that after this early week warmup ahead, we'll see more consistently colder temps for at least the next two weeks or so. In that pattern, we'll see a couple clippers and other short waves pivot down across our region with oscillating lake effect snow, and even lake enhance synoptic snow when the lows cross nearby. Stay hopeful guys. November doesn't count for snow anyway, it's so early in the season it never lasts. The Early December and on is when it really counts.
ReplyDeleteAnd one other things, Lakes Erie and Ontario are both a couple degrees warmer than normal for this date. These constant warmups have helped hold the "heat energy" in the lakes more than usual. Just wait till we start getting the really cold airmasses in a couple weeks. The great lakes radars are going to light up!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the latest cool down will feature more WSW to W winds favoring lake effect well Southeast of Rochester toward Batavia and Warsaw again. I stand by my thinking that Rochester may be heading toward one of its LEAST snowiest winters in many many years.
ReplyDelete***correction: well southWEST, not east. I'll get my directions straight one of these days lol.
ReplyDeleteI just returned from my hunting camp in northeastern Oswego County. We were in the "lake effect warning" area with up to 16" predicted at one point. Nothing but light snow until Saturday afternoon, when it snowed HARD for about an hour. A quick two inches accumulated. This morning (Sunday), it snowed lightly on and off before stopping around noon and leaving another inch or so. Everything around was snow covered and it was very nice, especially compared to the bare ground I returned to today. By the way, thanks to late day clearing and a slight snowpack, the temperature dropped all the way down to 17 degrees Saturday night/Sunday morning!!
ReplyDeleteA WNW wind will not give Rochester snow. A WNW wind wiill favor Eastern Wayne County.
ReplyDeleteAs far as vector goes, you need about a 310 mean flow. What that amounts to is right between a WNW and a straight NW wind. It may seem like splitting hairs, but it means the difference between the lake band staying just offshore until Wayne county like the last poster noted, or the band making it inland across Rochester. for the Rochester metro to get hit with decent pure lake effect, we need a very well organized single band off Georgian Bay to line up perfectly with Rochester as it crosses Ontario Canada and then re-enters the open waters of lake Ontario where it reintensifies before reaching the Monroe county shoreline around Hamlin, where it then travels in a line from NW to SE across northern Monroe county straight across Rochester. Usually there's a little cyclonic curviture with this, so that the flow is somewhat more NW around Georgian Bay, and more WNW by the time it reaches Rochester. Unfortunately, this setup doesn't happen very often when there is simultaneously an abundance of moisture, excellent crystal growth, very well aligned winds, very little shear, and highly favorable delta t's. And when all of these are in place, it doesn't usually last much longer than a few hours before at least one of those important ingredients begins to go away and the band fizzles or shifts.
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