Ho Ho Holiday blog
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
Ok kids, you're chomping at the bit in the previous post... so here I am! (Just kidding, I know that most of you are probably older than I am!)
There were talks about pattern change into the New Year, and those are exactly our thoughts. This is the NAO forecast going out 14 days (the bottom graph) and you can see it is heading towards zero and even shows signs of positive. Remember that a negative NAO means there is north Atlantic blocking that creates a cold pattern in the northeast. Why, Bob, we have a cold pattern in the northeast! Yup! It's mainly the reason for this unusually cold December we've had so far. But with few storms crossing the country to get into it, we've been quiet outside of our wallop of lake snow earlier in the month.
Some food for thought: One of the big things I remember from one of my upper level meteorology classes was my professor saying "there is a strong correlation between major east coast snowstorms and the occurrence of the NAO becoming LESS negative (IE heading towards zero from low levels). I'm not saying its imminent, and in fact I don't see much down the road right now, but it is something to keep in mind. It's something we found in the Kocin & Uccellini books "Northeast Snowstorms"... which I suggest EVERY winter snow lover buy or ask for for your next holiday gift.
A near zero NAO would make it much easier for us to be closer to normal temps which right now are around 34 for highs. I think it would be pretty safe to say that we are through the "hardest" part of our winter in terms of a month. We're over 4 degrees below average in December and have seen 30"+ above norm for snowfall. The rest of the winter months will struggle to live up to that standard.
I'll dig deeper into the AO and PNA during the day tomorrow and post my thoughts on that. There's a lot of cold air in the Arctic right now, but it still will need a method of getting down into our neck of the woods (Al Roker anyone?) But the NAO has a big influence and to me is screaming a sense of normalcy for the start of 2011.
Have a great Christmas Eve everyone. Stay safe, eat a lot, and enjoy your family. Get off the computer will ya?!
Bob, Your post seems to go along with so many theories I've read and heard about going back to October... that is, our worst weather month,as far as cold and snow, will be December. It'll be tough to top the 6 feet of snow we received in Lyons this month. But then again, it was all LES and probably not a flake came from a synoptic system. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteTo everyone in the weather dept...Merry Christmas and keep up the great work.
How does a La Nina pattern work in conjunction with a near zero NAO or a positive NAO?
ReplyDeleteSal, you're Lyon about that snow! Sorry, bad weather humor! Enjoy your holiday.
ReplyDeleteChris, although I cannot lay out a specific straight answer for you, I do know that the two can have both increased and decreased effects on one another. This area (large scale patterns and anomalies) still has much work to be done in terms of research. I know a bunch about the NAO, but my La Nina knowledge isn't too great, especially in regards to the connection between the two. Chalk it up to a few papers I did in college on the NAO and its effects in the northeast. Basically, that was a longer version of me saying "I don't know!" Perhaps Brian or Scotty can chime in if they happen to see this. I'll dig deeper for you and try to reason it out later!
-Bob
Wait Sal, I've got one more:
ReplyDeleteI'd say you've got the Lyon's share of the snow!
If that ain't a reason to read this blog on a regular basis, nothing is! :)
-Bob
Your article is a little confusing... Are you saying we are going to go into a more normal cycle but with better chances of getting a larger size northeast snow storms?
ReplyDeleteNo, I just planted the idea that a reversal of the NAO has occurred simultaneously with some of the biggest nor'easters ever... case and point what's going to hit the Northeast in the next few days.
ReplyDelete