PUT THOSE SNOW TIRES ON NOW!
Winter lovers, this post goes out to you. Scott and I were just discussing how nasty next week will likely be. The setup is a retrograding strong low pressure setting up over Nova Scotia. Historically, this kind of set up yields pretty lofty snow totals in our area courtesy of a well-aligned northwest wind coming across the Great Lakes.
But of note here is that this storm just STAYS there, and keeps pumping moisture in from the Atlantic. If it was a drier storm, we wouldn't be as excited about it. But there's plenty of moisture for this guy. Not to mention, the temps will be far cold enough to support good lake effect snow/enhancement. While it is too early to say where and how much, we think the potential for significant snow next week is high, with a foot strongly likely in several areas south of Lake Ontario. Stayed tuned as this will be something we'll be keeping our focus on over the coming days.
Funny you say that, Bob. I'm actually putting the snows on my wife's and my car this weekend. Looks like i'll be able to put them to good use next week!
ReplyDeleteI live down in Mt.Morris. We dont get much lake effect stuff here. Do you think we'll get a regular snow accumulation too? enough to shovel?
ReplyDeleteI believe Mt Morris has a shot at a shovel able snow
ReplyDeletejust out of curiosity... usually wayne county gets the most snow amounts on this type of wind direction... does that look like the same situation here
ReplyDeleteAny updates about the predicted lake snows from Sunday to Wednesday? This morning one local forecaster seemed to back off and his forecast was flurries for that time period.I believe according to the latest models this will be a bust in terms of snow for the metro area. The ususal favorite lake effect areas will get the bigger snow totals.
ReplyDeleteWe still don't have any numbers. I still think the potential is there. Why are you calling it a bust? I always like to know the thinking behind why someone says it will be a big storm or a bust.
ReplyDeleteBUFKIT this morning wasn't printing out LOTS of snow but then again a lot depends on how all of this comes together. In situations like the one we face Sunday through Wednesday a forecast needs to make people aware of what is possible. I don't think we are hyping this but more letting people here is what we see, here is what is possible we will let you know more as we know more.
I am not saying a bust for all! I think the winds favor more snow in the traditional lake effect belts. Plus I do not see this low retrograding as far west and do not believe the moisture will be there to bring big snows. You guys and station 10 seem to be a little more in favor of potential for the city. WOKR 13 seems to think not a big deal this morning.
ReplyDeleteAs is the case for Rochester the bigger snows never seem tro pan out. At this point I be less dissapointed if I think we will not receive much snow at all. If we do it will be a nice surprise. NOT COUNTING ON IT.
ReplyDeleteTheres's been a pretty heavy lake snow band just hovering out over the open waters of lake Ontario. It would be cool if that could come onshore and give us a quick hit later on. I remember you guys mentioning the possibility.
ReplyDeleteOk where are all the weather experts with the latest on next week? Anyone read the latest models?
ReplyDeleteI am looking them over and forecast remains the same. A good cyclonic flow, a prolonged period of cold with northwest winds and moisture still looks like the potential is there for a a couple of days of lake effect affect areas north of the thruway which could impact Rochester. I still think it is way to early to put a number on amounts at this time. Unlike synoptic systems where you get an idea how much moisture or QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Lake effect is not that simple.
ReplyDeleteMany of you know it more than just cold air over warmer waters. Need to see how this system develops and starts to retrograde back.
Brian-is Brighton going to get a good amount of snow!?!
ReplyDeleteSince I live in Brighton I hope so, it is definitely possible but we all know lake effect and how a lot of times it can be feast or famine. Honestly not ready to put numbers out there. I know the first numbers you see will be the forecast no matter how much tinkering or adjusting we do over the next couple of days.
ReplyDeleteThanks for kieeping us updated Brian. I'm staying cautiously optimistic for some snow. Even a couple inches would be nice because it shouldn't melt for awhile with the cold air in place.
ReplyDeleteI see 2 systems retrograding West starting on Sunday and lasting into next Thursday. Am I wrong?
ReplyDeleteSame weather expected with a few days of lake effect and enhanced snow. Plowable snow amounts expected.
ReplyDeleteWe are starting to get some snow in Ontario, NY ... NWS says we may get a quick inch or so by mid afternoon :) it will recover the ground
ReplyDeleteScott it looks as if this retrograding low will sit and spin for several days? If that is accurate the winds could be pretty strong and we will have at least 4 days of lake enhanced snow? Thanks for the blog you guys are the best!
ReplyDelete4 days of snow at .25 inches an hour (not very heavy snow) is 24 inches of snow.
ReplyDeletegetting minor accumulating snow now... it is coming down at a pretty good clip too.
ReplyDeleteCharles you are awesome at math! Did you factor in the melting facto when doing the math?
ReplyDeleteno I did not factor in melting and settling... but I was just quickly getting a total for 4 days worth of snow... also you have to look at the fact that there would be periods of 1. no snow and 2. very heavy snow(mainly overnight when the air is colder) so all together I am saying we may get snow amounts over 1 ft of snow
ReplyDeleteTo the jerk that responded to charles about melting... At least he contributes interesting things to this blog other than coming on here just to whine and attack others. For one thing, there won't be much melting, buddy. If you haven't learned already, 32 and below is the freezing point. We're expected to stay at or just below that through much of the period. Check yourself before you hit the comment button! And maybe pick up a book or two as well.
ReplyDeleteCharles, looks like that band has Ontario in the bullseye for awhile. I'm bettin there's some pretty dark clouds out of the lake, too. Let us know how much you end up with. I'm crossing my fingers that it makes it into Rochester at my house.
ReplyDeleteThere would be some melting due to any sun we get... even if temperatures are below 0 you would still have some melting as the sun would heat up the water crystals... but you are right with the fact that the melting would be minimal ... I was mearly pointing out with my original post that if we do get an extended period of snow we could wind up with significant totals. Also in other news I do not see anything that would prevent a good snow patter to stay set up right through the new year right now... the GFS has been conisistant in bringing a clipper system through sometime between the 10th and 15th followed by 3-4 days of relatively calm but cold weather. The past model runs were bringing a powerful noreaster up the east coast near the 20th but the latest model run has the storm to our west... although we need to look at trends which point out there would be a storm near the Northeast during the week leading up to Christmas.
ReplyDeleteIt is pretty dark and we are getting some light snow right now... I am waiting for the snow to pick up in intensity... I am thinking we will see snow rates of .5-1 inch an hour for 1-2 hours here. so maybe we will get 1-2 inches of snow today
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to keep track of what direction everything is going on the radar today. In orleans county, snow is traveling almost due south off the lake. Then then monroe county portion of lake ontrio has a band that seems to refuse to come onshore, even though everything else around it to the east and west is bring precip onshore. What gives?
ReplyDeletethe lake band north of monroe and wayne county will likely come ashore... just remember lake effect is very fragile to weather conditions around it... even a micro-wind difference over just a few miles can cause the lake band to waiver and stay offshore.. these micro-winds do not usually stay consistant for a long period of time and so the general wind direction will take over shortly which is from the NW... meaning that the lake band will move ashore shortly and already here in Ontario we have been getting some snow.
ReplyDeleteLooks like maybe a more pronounce pivot to the south on the western "tail" of that band. If that ripples down the band, it'll probably start snowing pretty good anywhere from Greece to just west of Sodus along and north of the 104.
ReplyDeleteI am watching that I think that all areas from Greece to Sodus north of 104 will get snow.
ReplyDeleteThanks Charles for clarifying the melting. I was not trying to be a jerk as the anonymous jerk above stated. You got what I was saying and I thank-you for the great information. Maybe the above anonymous jerk will mind his own business!
ReplyDeleteI do not think that it is nice to refer to people as jerks... I know it is online and so you do not know who the other people are but please dont call people jerks... btw it is getting dark here in ontario
ReplyDeleteCharles - thanks for the info on the snow in Ontario. Very tough on a day like today. No REAL lake effect bands. A few clusters still holding together from the previous event over Ontario.
ReplyDeleteI think we all can get along here. I notice many of you are very passionate about the weather and that is cool, but sometimes what we type comes across differently than how we meant it. Trust me I have made that mistake many times when typing comments and emails.
You're not going to find this kind of interaction with a weather team anywhere else in Rochester. We really appreciate it.
To some of the regulars on here. Instead of going by anonymous maybe you can come up with a creative handle or screen name that doesn't give away who you are. Plus it makes it easier for us to respond to individual questions.
That is what I did ... I logged in using my gmail account and put my picture up so people know who I am ... besides I sent people from my work here to see what the weather will look like so that they can see what I am saying
ReplyDeleteIf only I could figure out why my plow wqont angle to the right..Tested all the the cartridges, flushed the system. I guess it is a good thing I am way down in Livingston County and wont have to worry about snow for awhile.
ReplyDelete.....we think the potential for significant snow next week is high, with a foot strongly likely in several areas south of Lake Ontario.
ReplyDeleteWhoopee!!! Yea!!! Great news for chiropractors, body shops and RGE.
I went to SUNY Geneseo for 4 years. It was always cold and windy down in that valley, but I can't ever remember getting more than a couple inches on the ground at a time. If you really want to call an area of WNY a "snow hole" that area is one of them for sure. It's good I suppose if you don't like shoveling lots of snow...
ReplyDeleteWhy is there so much more lake effect on the western southertier near jamestown on a NW wind than there is here? isn't the fetch off lake erie even shorter than ours on a NW wind?
ReplyDeleteThe terrain there causes orthographic lift in addition to the lake affect... because of the higher elevation as the wind comes across the lake it hits the ground and is forced upward in a rising motion which leads to more unstable air and causes heavier snow/rain totals.
ReplyDeletehere is a facebook page in which people are talking about the snow ordeal in Buffalo... it may be the biggest snow ordeal in recent history for that area... although the oct 2006 lake effect snow storm may beat this one... but this one affected I90 more
ReplyDeleteoops forgot the link
ReplyDeletehttp://www.facebook.com/2onyourside
It is snowing again in Ontario, NY
ReplyDeleteWhy does Hilton often get missed when we are so close to the lake? Are we too close? Too far west? Do you think we will get missed this coming week as well?
ReplyDeleteChannel 13 has only light snow for us. No big deal according to them.
ReplyDeleteSince the sun has set ... we should see an increase in snow coverage as that is what usually happens at sunset.. radar is showing some more cells developing over the lake
ReplyDeletewell the Weather Channel is forecasting basically like News 8 is. I am confused can someone explain it to me!
ReplyDeletethat news 13 is saying something different from the other channel is the snow coming or should we not get our hopes up?
ReplyDeleteFirst off - we try to make it a policy not to comment on the forecasts from the other local TV stations. I think with the Weather Rate system being used by all three stations that we continue to be the most accurate.
ReplyDeleteIf that is their forecast they obviously have their reasons. We can however comment on our own forecast. Let's keep in mind we are not talking about a 24-36 hour dumping like Buffalo saw Wednesday into Thursday with over 40 inches of snow. I think we need to make that clear.
With a Northwest to North-northwest wind we will see multi-bands of lake effect snow. This usually doesn't yield high numbers but from Sunday into early to mid week with shots and bands of snow from time to time there will be a few locations that will see their snow pile up.
Is this a HUGE event, probably not. I hope people realize that we are not talking a major foot to 2 feet for every place in Orleans, Wayne and Monroe county. That's never the case with lake effect but with occasional lake effect and snow showers that may produce an inch to maybe 4 inches a day over the course of the next 4 days can really add up.
You know we will keep you up to speed on what's going on the next couple of days into the weekend. Please feel free to ask your questions and we will do our best to get back with you. Again thanks for all the participation.
I am going to start a new Thread for all your questions please direct your questions and comments there. Thanks
ReplyDeleteI just have to chuckle when I see all these comments about other stations and their forecasts. Our department works hard in trying to keep snowfall in perspective. Between noon Sunday and noon Thursday, some areas will have accumulated over 12" of snow...some easily. Remember that this is a 96 hour period and as Brian mentioned will fall in multibands. It's impossible to know with certainty where that is at this moment but I will say any area along and North of Routes 5 and 20 will have the highest likelihood.
ReplyDeleteWe won't comment on others forecasts, we all will be fairly close in our forecasts. It's going to snow at times, along with wind and colder air. No matter what the 18Z, 00Z, 6Z and 12Z models do the next 36 hours, it will snow.
Thanks and enjoy!
This is valuable information, and I appreciate it as a former student of the late Bob Sykes at SUNY Oswego in 1980.
ReplyDeleteStill no watches or warnings posted along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
ReplyDeleteSteady very icy snow in Northern Ontario, Wayne County. Ice pellets at present.
ReplyDelete