SNOW TOTAL FORECAST
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
This is our forecast for Monday through Wednesday. I know that a lot of you will be drawn to the 20" totals, but those will be mainly in Rochester and points east through Wayne county. Obviously, totals drop off very quickly further from the lakes.
The incredibly cold/dry air is factored into these totals. Models often have a hard time compensating for this (much like our last storm) so that's why there will likely be a few that see 20" or even more. We also think that Orleans county is being neglected by the weather service and have included them, based on our thoughts of an upstream connection with the upper Great Lakes.
Not a big deal. 12-20 inches of fake fluu is actually 6-12 of real snow in my humble opinion.
ReplyDeleteis Brighton in the 20'' range?? it is hard to tell
ReplyDeleteThat is FAKE FLUFF.
ReplyDeletemaybe it is going to be that good packing snow lets all keep a open minded
ReplyDeleteHumor me, tell me theres a CHANCE that the 12-20" line can drop to the tip of seneca/cayuga lake....its so close
ReplyDeletePlease don't take those lines as gospel everyone! They are rough outlines with blurry edges! This isn't a map to live or die by.
ReplyDeleteAnd no, this will NOT be good packing snow. It will be WAY too cold and dry for that to happen. Sorry to burst your bubble!
-Bob
Does anyone see any chance for some real synoptic snow in this place?
ReplyDeleteoh well if it is not going to be good packing snow at least it is going to be pretty to look at!
ReplyDeleteIs this just going to be a steady snowfall Monday through Wednesday or is it going to mainly be on one day?
ReplyDeleteI cant stand all the freakin negative people on this blog. "12-20" of fluff is more like 6-12" Who cares! My 70inch tv looks like its 12inches from across the street but you know what, its still 70inches!
ReplyDeleteWe should be thankful we get lake effect! Many places see snow events 5-10 times a year at most! And by events I mean 2-4inches. we get them weekly!
FYI.....It takes so many different things to come together for a big synoptic storm in the winter time! Not only do you need a rich, moist airmass, you also need a cold airmass and only the people in-between get the snow. Its not like every single storm has these elements and target western NY.
Gezzzzz, 12-20 lake effect! Heck Ya! Im excited!
If your a snow lover, you should be getting hyped right now!
ReplyDeleteCouldn't agree more w/ David. Way too much negativity and whining. This storm was NOT a dud. A week ago Scott predicted this storm would go west of us and the POTENTIAL for heavy lake snow thereafter. Bob mentioned a dry slot that would affect the amount of precip we would recieve. Pretty friggin good forcasting in my opinion. It's almost as if some posters hold the Mets accountable for wishcasts that don't come to fruition! Don't forget, we're still dealing w/ Mother Nature here.
ReplyDeleteGreat post David! Thanks that some one says this! And I love your example! I am pretty excited, too because where I am coming from we dont have lake effect and I am not even sure if we have 5-10 events every winter...
ReplyDeleteAnyone look at the NWS warning map http://www.weather.gov/
ReplyDeleteLooks like a Crayola box vomited on it.
HAHA Richie
ReplyDeleteLast LES event hit South/Cent Wayne County harder than North/Cent Wayne. It will be interesting to see if that will repeat based on this much colder flow of dryer air.
ReplyDeleteIn reference to people asking me questions about the weather... if someone wants to ask me questions about the weather I do not think other people should jump on them for asking me... I may not answer because I may not know but if I do answer a question take it with a grain of salt because I am still learning about meteorology.
ReplyDeleteI took a bunch of Meteorology courses too in college, not as a major, but as a science elective...
ReplyDeleteI THOUGHT DRY AIR WAS NOT GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. I THOUGHT YOU NEED MOIST AIR.
ReplyDeleteThats cool David... I agree how so many areas would want even half the snow we get each year. I used to live in one of those places... Kansas City, MO
ReplyDeleteI was having dinner in Antigua last year at a resort, and my wife and I were talking to the chef. This is during Christmas and we asked him what would be the best Christmas gift you could get. His reply was, I want to see snow! He was from a tropical island somewhere in the western pacific and has never seen a single snowflake in his whole life!! Pretty amazing..
ReplyDeleteI cant imagine not seeing snow ever in my life
ReplyDeleteSHORT TERM FORECAST
ReplyDeleteNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
844 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-130345-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
844 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010
.NOW...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN TO
PLUNGE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. AT 8 PM SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND THIS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE WEST.
CURRENTLY AT 8 PM THE STEADY RAINFALL FROM TODAY HAS EXITED ALL
BUT THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHOWERS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING PAST THE FREEZING MARK ANY WET AND UNTREATED ROADS WILL
BECOME ICY. MOTORISTS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION FOR ICY AND SLIPPERY
SPOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND RAMPS THAT MAY
FREEZE BEFORE ROAD SURFACES FREEZE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FIRST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...THEN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND NORTH COUNTY LATE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.
Here we go... temperature plunge
ReplyDeleteBuffalo, NY reporting stations are seeing temperatures around 33 degrees
......He was from a tropical island somewhere in the western pacific and has never seen a single snowflake in his whole life!! Pretty amazing..
ReplyDeletelucky him!!! If I never saw another flake I'd be happy--gonna move soon.
I knew a student at the college that I went to for a year (private collage) that was from the Philippians and had never seen snow till we (in powell, TN) got 4 inches of it one night... he was very energetic the following day going sledding, snowball fights, made a snowman and so on and he was in college at the time. Skipped classes to play in the snow
ReplyDeleteSome light synoptic snow is moving across southern Ontario, Canada... we will have to see if it makes it here
ReplyDeleteHey. Charlie chill. I say let it be.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS has now come into line with the Euro in show a major east coast storm for next sunday and Monday. It will be fun to watch this week and how it develops or not. If it were to hit as the models say right now we would miss it entirely and the East coast would get blasted. Will the models start moving it West??? We will see.
ReplyDeleteWhy is this Charles dude posting a forecast? I get my weather from the most accurate team around. Hetsko and the boys are spot on, much like my Friday Forecast for the Bills. Mark it Downnnn! I am 10-3 on the season! Batten down the hatches for some wintry weather the next few days. Of course I fly out for Miami Friday for the Bills next game....lol
ReplyDelete