COLDER, SOME SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEKEND

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Long range signs continue to point to an Eastern trough deepening here in the Northeast from Thanksgiving into the holiday weekend.

It will be cold enough to produce snow showers off the Great Lakes with an other upper air disturbance possibly enhancing lake snows over the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 30s for highs and 20s for overnight lows.

There will some accumulation in the area but we are way too far out to be specific. Get your cars and yourself ready for winter driving!

LOTS OF TALK OF COLD BUT WHERE IS IT?

Written by: Brian Neudorff

On this blog the last few days there has been a lot of talk about the cold and possible cold arriving after Thanksgiving. But I thought it would be a good idea to show everyone where the cold air currently was and how cold it currently is. Here is a temperature plot of Canada this morning. As you can see you go northwest of Hudson Bay and temperatures are -22 Fahrenheit.

There is a lot of time between now and the end of next week but both the GFS and EURO models are hinting at colder air coming in over the lakes and western New York Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. The images below are for Friday afternoon from both the GFS ad EURO computer models and the 850 temperatures. They have 850mb temperatures between -10 & -15 that would definitely be enough for Lake Effect. Of course there is more to it than just the cold air but if this hold true then it could be the nice first snow many were hoping for.






At this point time is our enemy and as the cold air starts to move south a lot of moderation can take place and the cold air forecasted today can end up being a lot warmer than it is being advertised today.

NY STATE ANNUAL SNOWFALL MAP

Written By: Scott Hetsko

There has been some questions on the blog about how snow varies annually across our region. Here's the average snowfall over the past 30 years in Western New York.

SOME NEEDED RAIN ON THE WAY

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Although many of the conversations on this blog have been about snow, it is not in the cards just yet, but we do need some precipitation. At the half way point of the month we are a little over 0.6" below average, it looks like the next storm will help erase that deficit. In fact many of the models are hinting at us getting near an inch of rain through Wednesday.

A storm system that is currently forming along the Gulf Coast will begin to push northward tonight and into Tuesday. Rain will reach western New York late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. The rain will continue through the day Wednesday with a few scattered rain shower in its wake on Thursday. A few of the models I have looked at are wanting to print out an inch to as high as 1.3"

I know with all the moisture many of you wish I was talking about snow and not rain. I can also understand the frustration of many of the snow lovers out there. I think what is more surprising is how many of you are ready to write off this winter before it has even begun. I can tell you this much. As November goes doesn't mean the winter goes too.

2009 November produced a trace of snow, in the end we had almost an average year just shy with 89.2"

2007 Nov. 1.7" of snow for the season 106"
2006 Nov. 0.5" of snow for the season 107.2"
2005 Nov. 7.8" of snow for the season 73.9"

You get the idea, from a few recent Novembers that the month doesn't tell how the winter will go. You can see more of the climatology here

Our winter weather special with winter weather forecast for 2010-2011 will air Saturday at 7:30pm Before you get yourself all down and feeling defeated if you go off of climatology a La Nina winters traditionally produce higher seasonal snow (on average) but not very cold winters. As we have said many times, this may be a winter of ups and downs. Keep the faith and keep the comments coming.

HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS!

Written by: Bob Metcalfe

You know that this gorgeous weather can't last forever, I mean c'mon its November! Well, reality sets back in by the middle of the week, as seen here for around midnight Wednesday. A decent strength storm will roll through the Ohio Valley and arrive packing a windy punch and bringing a healthy dose of rain. Wednesday will be a great one for "inside" projects I can assure you of that.

Behind this storm, the cold pours in from the north. It's not extreme cold, but its enough to drop us into the more "normal" range of temperatures typical of November, ie the low to mid 40s for highs. Still not seeing any support for snow in the next week or so, but a few graupel showers could mix in Thursday.