UPDATE ON SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
(4pm update Tuesday on snowfall)
Snow is developing this late afternoon over the Southern Tier and moving quickly North this evening. Strong warm air advection this evening should provide a brief punch of moderate snow fall between 8pm and 2am. Eastern Ohio and Western PA obs show moderate to heavy snow with visibility down to a half mile in some towns.
We are still expecting an areawide modest snowfall by the time it all winds down early Wednesday. Additional lake snow off a NNW wind Wednesday PM and evening will add a few inches in blue shaded areas. Another quick moving snowfall will occur over the weekend.
Dashing thru the snow, in a big white Chevrolet, crunching all the salt and sand that will rust it all away! Watching people slide, as they spin into the ditch, be sure to cover up you're ears as I am sure that they will bitch! (Chorus) Oh Winter storm, winter storm giving us some snow. Time to get the plow hooked up and head on the road. Oh winter storm, winter storm giving us some snow. The Pro's at Channel 8 are glad that we will now leave them alone!!
ReplyDeleteI know better you'll never leave us alone LOL. As I look over new data feel like the best time for the steadiest and heaviest of snow is still late tonight into the early morning hours. Then by morning the new low will take over off the coast. We will have some enhancement but closer to the lake shore and north of the Thruway. Definitely feel that Southern Tier gets plowable snow. - Brian
ReplyDeleteThe NWS increased our totals for 3-5 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWhere did u see that? They still have us in the 3-6 inch range by tomorrow evening from what i can find.
ReplyDeleteGo on the NWS and click on Rochester. They have tonight 3-5 and tomorrow 3-5. Dan
ReplyDeleteWell there ya go, we're now officially ON the day of the the beginning of the snow, and the forecast is still solid for multiple inches of snow, and I see growing confidence all across the board that snowfall totals are trending toward the higher side than anything as we get closer to the event.
ReplyDeleteWhoever said we'd be lucky to see 2" in Rochester....it's a good thing you didn't bet any money on that one. But hey, it's all in fun. I've lost track of how many times I lost a bet when it comes to weather.
And think about this....looking at various weather cams around the area, I see a snow cover of varying depth all across the region, including down in the middle Genesee Valley. So that means that that every flake of snow that falls is going to immediately stick. Not one of those deals where it has to snow for an hour or two before the grass finally starts turing white. We already have the foundation laid. So let's say we get the low end of 4", most places have at least 1" or so on the ground, so that puts us up to 5" minimum snow pack. And that's being way overly conservative. When all is said and done, I bet we all have AT LEAST a half foot of snow cover everywhere. It's been a long time coming, but we deserve it!
ReplyDeleteDo not count the chickens before they are hatched that west LP will tranfers energy fast to east coast LP. We will see only time will tell.
ReplyDeleteThis may be a dumb question. But, I am sure that someone somewhere has the answer, or at least a answer.
ReplyDeleteI heard geese today. In fact just now, and I am in Newark, Wayne County. So, does this mean an early thaw or warm weather coming our way.
Some geese remain up north in the winter. So, it's not really a sign that winter will end early because it's not that they are flying north already, but rather they were here all along, and just decided to winter here rather than migrate. Why that is, I have no idea. But I know that Irondequoit Bay has been full of Canadian Geese since fall. They simply never flew south.
ReplyDeleteThis reminds me of a question someone asked earlier about robins. Many people don't realize that robins do not fly south in the winter. They are all still here. They just remain deep in the woods during winter. When we start to thaw out, they'll eventually venture out to look for worms and insects. They've been known to do this even when there is snow on the ground, as they'll convene around little spots of exposed grass looking for food. so their appearance isn't so much an indication of future weather, but rather current weather.
Radar is filling in!
ReplyDeletefyi...NWS has downed the totals to 204 tonight, and 1-3 tomorrow...just an update to the poster that said they increased them to 3-5 both days. hope we see some!.
ReplyDeletesorry, it should say 2-4, not 204
ReplyDeleteOh boy Andrew may be right with his post that is not good. Interesting there has not been an update from Scott wondering what he is thinking. He is the best!
ReplyDeleteThe NWS service changes with the wind. Dan
ReplyDeleteIf you notice they have the same amounts for Buffalo. This is crap. We will see more because of lake enhancement and we are closer to the storm.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, They really do change a lot. You can't rely on the NWS's "point and click" forecasts. I'm sure we'll get an update from the mets soon.
ReplyDeleteThere is no reason to believe that Buffalo will end up getting more snow out of this event than Rochester. Not gonna happen, in my opinion. Relax, nothing dramatic has changed. The NWS is just trying to freak us out lol.
ReplyDeleteScott, is that 5-9 before lake effect Wednesday night and Thursday or is that total for synoptic and lake effect?
ReplyDeleteNext weeks looks interesting as well.
ReplyDelete5-9" would be TOTAL snow fall.
ReplyDeleteScott
Nothing to write home about.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you expect the snow to start?
ReplyDeleteRadar shows it, but it is not making it to the ground down in the Southerntier!
ReplyDeleteEvaporating initially so it will start coming down after 7 or 8 p.m.
ReplyDeleteScott
Looks like you'll be putting your snow tires to use tonight, Scott. Roads will probably be miserable around Midnight. Drive careful!
ReplyDeleteThanks, Snowfan. I honestly LOVE driving in the snow especially at that time of night when few others are outside.
ReplyDeleteScott
This is going to be a minor event looks like stuff has already transferes to parent low. Better than nothing but this is what Rochester has become the last two winters. We are excited about 3 inches.
ReplyDelete+1 to driving in the snow! especially when no one else is around, it's those other crazy people on the road that scare me, not the weather
ReplyDeleteDry slot already working into the western southern tier a bit earlier than expected. Hopefully it doesn't make it all the way to our region or snowfall totals will be cut way down.
ReplyDeleteRoads across ROC have turned snow covered almost within minutes. Be careful out there folks.
ReplyDeleteIt does look like the Dry Slot is working in already. Good news for the morning commute.
ReplyDeleteStill in question whether that dry slot will make it all the way to monroe county. There's already signs of it leveling out around southern erie county with back building developing. Latest NAM still has a good band right over metro ROC at 7AM. I suspect that dry slot will come close but not make it much farther north than the 5&20 corridor. We'll have to wait and see.
ReplyDeleteDry slot won't make it North. We'll stay in a light to moderate snow fall overnight I think. 2-4" by dawn then a little more additional from the lake WED PM EVE
ReplyDeleteScott
Coming down pretty good in Sparta still. Not going to stay up much later so I will see what we have in the morning.
ReplyDeleteScott, how much snow do you think we will get Wednesday?
ReplyDeleteThis winter sucks. NYC and Boston are preparing for yet another blizzard and we will get wimpy crap. 1.2 inches so far in Gananda and it has stopped already.
ReplyDeleteAndrew was right. The coastal low has already taken over. We are done.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS even stated that the Ohio low has weakened considerably and a lot quicker than the models stated. The coastal has taken all the mositure from us. What else is new. Kudos to Andrew. He called it..
ReplyDeleteDo not want to say I told you so but I told you so. The snow from the LP from the west was minimal because it moved fast and transfered the energy quickly to the parent low. The majority of snow we get is lake enhanced. Nothing to write home about and nothing coming in the future to write home about!
ReplyDeleteAndrew you can NOT claim victory on this. You said "We would be lucky to see 2" in Rochester. Rochester did see more than 2" Lake enhancement is and will be part of most and any synoptic event we get especially with winds northeast and north.
ReplyDeleteOk some may have gotten 3 but I walked out to 1-2 inches maybe. I am just claiming victory bc of the Anonymous posts above they seem to agree with me (just joking). Again the majority of snow will be wrap around off the lake which again as always only gives snow to a few closer to the lake. It is what it is the large synoptic snowstroms are gone for the Rochester area. Bring on the spring! Keep up the good work News 8 you guys are the best and most accurate!
ReplyDeleteAndrew- you are my hero!
ReplyDelete