Big Snow, or Mix?
Alrighty, here we go with the new blog for the next (big?) storm. And here we go again with the the storm being highly track dependent, as most of our big storms (or non-storms) are. Scott thinks it'll start as a mix to snow, and I think I agree with him, at least at this point. The storm is a little west for snow-lover's liking, drawing in some warmer air initially. If the storm transfers it's energy east, it'll draw in colder air, cold enough for snow. Of course, it's too soon to be completely confident with this but models are coming into pretty good agreement. Let's see what happens by Monday/early Tuesday. And....go!
NWS seems to think all snow..... If a little mix does start, I think it will be very short lived and then going to all snow rather quick. Looking forward to it. The euro was pretty solid on the last storm, and thus far hasnt budged on this storm, which would be all snow....
ReplyDeleteStacey, if a mix did start. Would the mix be in the southern tier? And snow say.... north of the thruway, or would everyone get a mix?
Lets hope all SNOW!!!!! i think any mix should be short lived. with the scenarios what type of numbers could be possible with the storm? could we see 5inches, over a foot, blizzard conditions?
ReplyDeleteThe Low will not be strong enough to suport blizzard conditions, not enough pressure gradiant to sustain 35 MPH winds. They may gust that stong but i dought that. More like 20-30MPH range. It could be a juicy storm with alot of snow for someone.
DeleteI think snow initially, then a brief period of mixing followed by a change back to all snow. High pressure to our north should, in my amateur opinion, keep any changeover to mix from getting too out of hand.
ReplyDeleteThe 18Z NAM has also Shifted the storm much further south and east. It is now more in line with the 12Z GFS and the 12Z EURO. This is getting more interesting but still early.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro also has a second slightly stronger Low following almost the same path as Wed/Thur storm.
This winter might not be a dud like so many on this page suggesting earlier in this season. It is going to be an exciting and possibly a snowy Christmas week, much more fun than warm rain and mud.
Keep in mind that the 6z and 18z model runs are initialized off of extrapolated data, unlike the 0z and 12z runs which are initialized from weather balloon data and flight data. Also keep in mind that the storm is still near the end of the NAM's range, which makes it less reliable on its own. However I've seen one meteorologist claim that the 18z NAM is pretty close to what should happen, given its similarities to the Euro and also given the upper air pattern.
DeleteThinking 5-8 from this storm not earth shattering but good.
ReplyDeleteI don't trust the interim 6z/18z runs. I look at them, but take them with a grain of salt. If you go with the 12z nam/gfs, we'll get a mix in central NY and Finger Lakes (except maybe elevations) to start with the 850 0°C line in central NY, then drawing in the colder air by sunrise Thursday. EURO is colder, keeping us below freezing through the duration. If you go with EURO RIGHT NOW, I'd guess a 8-10"-er? With Toronto maybe getting slammed. I'm just making an educated guess at this point though, as you all are.
ReplyDeleteI will take anything over a dusting. One inch is still a step in the right direction for Hamlin, better than the last event. We have green ground and mud tonight. No snow anywhere.
ReplyDeleteWhy Toronto slammed? Wont it be a NE wind that will help with Enhancement?
ReplyDeleteYes, but right now the bulk of the synoptic moisture looks over us/lake ontario/just north, and it looks cold enough for all snow in Toronto. Again, right now. This could mean nothing at this point. It'll be fun watching this one develop, that's for sure.
ReplyDeleteJust enough to open those snowmobile trails. i see most are going with snow, few with mix then snow. id take that 8=10er though.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS is siding with the Euro and all snow for us. Why do Meteorologists choose different models to go by? One chooses the Nam over the GFS, the other chooses the GFS over the Euro, ETC. It is quite confusing. How about the littlem system for Christmas Eve. Will we get a few inches from that? We actually lost a lot of what little snow we had on the ground. See green grass again.
ReplyDeleteDepends on how they analyze the data available, which goes beyond the models. I know of at least a few other meteorologists who are leaning towards a mix initially in our region. I just hope this doesn't morph into a nasty ice threat at the worst possible time for travelers. Ice is a far greater danger than snow, and this applies to everyone.
DeleteI see the south and east getting that mix more than us. If the models stay where they are and verify this will be a 12-14 inch snowfall for us. That is how I see it at this point.
ReplyDeleteAgreed Andrew...... With another storm possibly on Deck....
ReplyDeletewow, i hope this isn' t too good to be true. It sounds like at this point we are close enough to know that we will def. get some snow, its a matter of how much. Is news 8 still leaning toward a mix over to snow? i missed their 6pm forecast with stacey. most think its all snow but scott said different. he is very smart and seems to know what going on at all times, but i hope this time he is wrong. we could ue a good old fashioned 12+ inch snow, its been several years.
ReplyDeleteI think we will def get snow from this one. Also if it does mix I think it will be early and for not that long because models have been pretty consistent giving us lots of snow in western new york. My prediction as of right now is 12-18 inches.
ReplyDeleteOoh another snowfall guessing game? I guess 9-15 inches, highest amounts in Orleans County away from the lake. Mixing only becomes an issue towards the Finger Lakes. This is strictly a GUESS.
ReplyDeleteInsert "significant" in front of "issue"
DeleteI love seeing white on the ground. Just hope it sticks around for Christmas...also later in the week hopefully we get enough so the snow sled riders can get out and enjoy this winter, unlike the last one.
ReplyDeleteWatches will definately go up sometime tomorrow for this one.
ReplyDeleteThe models are pumping out a lot of moisture with this. If it is all snow definately 12+ is a possibility.
ReplyDeleteIf you're referring to what the recent NAM shows then keep in mind that the NAM likes to overdo QPF beyond hour 48 or so. What encourages me more is that the SREF mean, which would have us in a several hour period of wintry slop in the middle of the storm (possibly even ordinary rain for a time), is now a warm outlier.
Deletei hope you are all right...how confident do you feel about close to 12 inches macedon? do you think local mets will come near that number by tuesday?
ReplyDeleteI am so Happy just to see some Snow. I have followed this Blog for the last couple years or so. Never comented due to my lack of forecasting knowledge. I am a Hetsko/Stacey,and John Fan. I'm happy a Little snow for christmas has a Huge Positive impact on here. It's very nice to see everyone posting positive comments and predictions. May You and your family all have a very Merry Christmas!! Mike LeRoy
ReplyDeleteLatest NAM still gives Western,NY a big hit. If these models stay consistent tomorrow then I will be confident we are looking at a foot or more. That is how I see it.
ReplyDeleteI have been reading the NWS conversations around NYS and they all are going with the colder Euro solution. The GFS has also gone colder. If we stay all snow and the models do not change in the next few days we could easily see a foot or more of snow. The local mets are very conservative, understandably, besides channel 10. I bet they will come out and start syaing 6-12 inches. That is my guess.
ReplyDeleteLets all look at the bigger picture:
ReplyDelete1.) We're getting a fresh inch or so of snow tomorrow night so that most, if not all will get a white Christmas!
2.) The next system we get will at least bring a decent snowfall (Can't win them all!)
3.) The pattern looks to stay cold enough for the winter weather enthusiasts to enjoy the snow for a while
4.) We will all have a good idea of what to expect by tomorrow night
5.) It's the Holidays, so enjoy them and don't fret about the storm this early!
I like the fact that we have somethiing to talk about. We had nothing to talk about last year. I agree with Andrew. The GFS is pumping out a lot of moisture as well anon, not just the NAM. This is a juicy storm.
ReplyDeleteI did realize that just now. I still feel like we have to wait another 24 hours or so before concerning ourselves with QPF. Models have a much tougher time with QPF than they do with storm tracks. Still feeling a solid storm for WNY, maybe more than solid. 12+ inches is definitely on the table.
DeleteSome of the models are printing out another strong storm for the weekend taking the same general track. WOuld it not be cool to see back to back storms.
ReplyDeleteThat is very true macedon. As i said earlier on the blog I am confident we get a foot+. So confident I would be surprised if we get less than 10 inches of snow. Prediction still 12-18 inches. I'm getting excited for this one. Its been a long time since I last predicted 12-18 inches of snow here.
ReplyDeleteExcitable much?
ReplyDeleteI don't like being "that guy" but we are still 60+ hours out and the guidance still can't agree on a track. Plus we've all been victim to that last-moment shift that rips our hearts out when we were THIS CLOSE to getting nailed (in our minds at least). I say we should temper our excitement at least until the guidance can start consistently agreeing on a favorable track, if we even get a favorable track. I believe we will, but I'm not ready to commit to that yet.
I couldnt agree more. Still to far out to get to excited yet.
DeleteGFS rolling. Heart racing faster than supersonic jet. Stroke imminent.
ReplyDeleteGotta Believe!!!! snowmobilers need it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHope there are back to back storms coming.
Back to back like March 1999... that would be awesome this early in the winter. Would set up ski resorts and snowmobiler's really nice! We can only hope.
Delete0z GFS is so very, very sexy. Quite Euro-like from what I can tell. Better consensus being established among operationals it seems, so confidence in a major snowstorm for our region should go up a little tonight.
ReplyDeleteI agree. 0z GFS trended a little colder. If that stands, I believe it would be straight snow. But, I still think it's just too close NOT to mention at least the possibility of a mix to start.
ReplyDeleteStacey
Agree if it continues to trend like this will be over a foot and if lake snows after closer to 20 inches.
ReplyDeleteSee below from the NWS. Looks more and more likely for a BIG snow here.
ReplyDeleteTHE GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SNOW ACCUMULATION SCHEMES SHOW 12 TO 18
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NY WITH THE GFS GIVING ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES ON
THURSDAY. A MEAN 72 HOUR SNOWFALL FROM THE CIPS SITE USING THE TOP
15 ANALOGS TO THE 00Z GFS SHOW 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH 10+ INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. IF THE STORM TRACK IS IN FACT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST
OF HERE TO KEEP TEMPERATURE PROFILES BELOW FREEZING THEN THIS STORM
COULD BRAKE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 26TH WITH THE
CURRENT RECORDS IN BUFFALO BEING 10.7 INCHES SET IN 1956 AND 7.7
INCHES FOR ROCHESTER SET IN 1969.
wow could this really come true??? you folks are starting to sound pretty confident...is it still too early to believe the models, its only 2 days away. at this point storm is def heading this way, just a question of whether there is any mix? do i have that right? if mix were to come into play how much snow would we be talking then?
ReplyDeleteI would be worried about a mix in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier but not here in Western and Central NY. In less something wierd happens this looks to be an old fashioned snowstorm for us. Finally. I would say Winter Storm watches will go up by this evening.
ReplyDeleteyour wish is finally coming true, mine too. we will be traveling down to my inlaws near jamestown wed morning. i am assuming travel will be ok then. and if we stay long enough, we wil be ok driving home friday? i would think any roads they close would be back open by then, unless tons of cars get stranded on 90 or something, do you see that sort of thing happening with this storm?
ReplyDeleteI would expect that this afternoon winter storm watches will go up. The NWS already has accumulations in there hourly forecast graph is you go to it and then go and look wednesday night and morning they are forecasting 7.8 inches of snow from 7 PM till midnight and 11 inches of snow from midnight till 7 AM on thursday so that is 18.8 inches of snow forecasted at least for my area which is ontario.
ReplyDeleteCan you provide a URL?
DeleteThanks
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w3u=1&w9=snow&AheadHour=48&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=43.20934&textField2=-77.33610&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0
Deletewow, holy cow, we haven't seen that in so long...when is the last time our area saw a big snow like this? it feels like it has been years
ReplyDeleteYou might not see winter storm watches. But Heavy Snow Warnings go into effect with accumulations like that.....
ReplyDeleteThey got rid of the heavy snow warnings a couple of years ago
Deletereally? I did not know that, I just havent seen them because we have had no storms, hahaha
ReplyDeleteYeah they said that they will just issued winter storm warnings for events with heavy snow
ReplyDeleteI dont think we will see totals over 20" inches not cold enough... but a solid 14-18inchs of heavy snow seems possible.....
ReplyDeletewhy wouldn't they issue a winter storm watch? they are in fact calling it a storm and with the snow amounts they are hinting at i would think at least a watch. they also mentioned wind. sounds like wed night and thursday morning is gunna be the worst, and it doesn;t sound like it sticks around that long. I cant imagine how hard it will be snowing to accumulate that much snow in that short amount of time.
ReplyDeleteThe last big one storm I can remember was one we had in February of 2009, where we got well over a foot. Then there was the Valentines day storm back in 2007 I believe, which I'm sure we all remember.... But let's not get our hopes up for 12-18" just yet. We gotta be in the sweet spot to see that much and we all know that we get burned at the last second. A lot can change in the next 48 hours, but we look good so far! I'm sure News 8 will have numerous updates today.
ReplyDeletei got it, your posts didn't show until i posted mine.
ReplyDeleteI found an even higher spot NW of Rochester between Rochester and Buffalo we have a spot they are forecasting 21.8 inches of snow
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&AheadHour=0&FcstType=graphical&textField1=43.21912&textField2=-78.94288&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0&AheadDay.x=63&AheadDay.y=2
Also if you notice it will be quite gusty in terms of winds
ReplyDeleteThis is getting really exciting. Its looking like our area will get a solid 12-18 inches with areas over 20 inches. With another storm this weekend. I remember 1999, that would be awesome if we get that much snow!
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what the latest NAM showed?
ReplyDeletethe latest NAM is not done running yet but so far its the same as the GFS and EURO
ReplyDeleteThoughts and prayers go out to fire fighters families, a horrible Christmas eve. Tragedy in our own state.
ReplyDeleteyes, it is hard to even think about the weather or anythign else when there is this horrible tragedy going on. makes you really appreciate what you have. I'm sitting here this morning hoping for a huge snow storm and there are people getting shot and killed trying to help put out a fire. as a former volunteer fire fighter i can't imagine what those guys are going through and the families.
ReplyDeleteStacey here - the 12z NAM is colder, and would keep us in an ALL SNOW event. As far as travel is concerned, anytime before Wednesday afternoon should be ok, but after that, all bets are off. It looks like this will certainly snarl holiday travel big time.
ReplyDeleteGod bless those firefighters.
ReplyDeleteHi All! John here, all models seem to be on board for significant snow Wednesday night into Thursday, & as Stacey said just above travel will get somewhat slick tonight into the start of Christmas, but thereafter will be tranquil & smooth through much, if not all, of Wednesday. Read full blog, & thoughts I just posted...
ReplyDeleteDo not take this the wrong way John and Stacey, but why can't you put numbers on it yet or at least what you are thinking. It is only 2 days away so you should have some idea.
ReplyDelete