December Feel in December!?
After a blustery, much colder Wednesday with a bit of snow, our Thursday will feature a good deal of sun with seasonably chilly temperatures after a frosty start!
The next weather maker will warm us up to near 50 Friday with a bit of rain later in the day with a breeze, & come Saturday the front should move through with a mild start, but colder finish. Highs again on Saturday should be close to 50 with a few more showers! More seasonable air should then build in Sunday, & then a big storm developing down South will move into the Great Lakes/Northeast. The exact track of this storm will dictate the amount & type of precipitation we see Sunday night into Monday. At this time, big surprise, it looks like we will see mainly rain & a nice balmy start to the week, before colder air with some lake effect snow shower activity building in Tuesday into Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates on any changes that may occur with the early week's storm track.
Have a great day everyone!
Same old story. really no surprise.
ReplyDeleteSo why comment?
DeleteAnd todays model runs have an arctic air dump into the Northern Plains and a -NAO forming. Just in time to back me of the ledge for the 2nd half of the month.
ReplyDeleteI say screw the models, they've made my mood swing worse than a pregnant teenager.
DeleteIs it possible to have a SE ridge and a -NAO at the same time?
ReplyDeleteThat's a really good question Caleondia! I would assume it would be possible but I'm curious to what the mets have to say!? And to all those who have already given up on winter, back in 2006-2007, we had around 4, that's right, 4 inches of snow in December and still managed to receive 107 inches on the season...
ReplyDeleteAnd don't forget 98-99 season where Nov & Dec were also warmer than normal with .1" snow in Nov and 10" Dec, and we still got 111" for the season.
DeleteAndy
I'm just wondering because the GFS ensemble has an East based -NAO starting to form around day 5 ( no longer in fantasy range!).. the 12Z op did something similar but had a SE ridge starting to form with the block still there?
ReplyDeleteJosh Nichols posted on Twitter and FB about a cross polar flow that he thinks will set up the week of the 20th. He seemed rather certain about an active storm track to our south occurring later this month. Any thoughts/rebuttals on that Scott/team?
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, News 8 weather team, I did cheat on you with the WHEC weather team. sorry :(
OMG! You cheated. It's ok. We need a strong blocking high Northeast of Nova Scotia to setup before any of that could happen. Too far away but here's to hoping! This Winter doesn't have to be like last year, I think it will be better.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott, is it possible to have extended cold for both the West and East coast at the same time? In my short time following the weather I can't remember this ever happening. Thanks
ReplyDeleteWE JUST CANNOT WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteLOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...DESPITE A -NAO AND -AO INDEX...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY REAL COLD OR WINTER WEATHER REMAIN BLEAK FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS. A PERSISTENT -PNA COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BEARING STRAIT
TELLECONNECTS WELL TO COLD AIR BEING DIRECTED INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE NATION. FURTHERMORE...WHILE THERE IS A -NAO...THE
RIDGE POSITION RIGHT OVER ICELAND DIRECTS TROUGH AMPLIFICATIONS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NOT THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME FOR
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AT LEAST...WITH ONLY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF SEASONABLY
COOL AIR. THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN WITH THE BRIEF PERIODS OF COOLER AIR BEING QUITE DRY.
Do not understand how Scott can be so thinned skin and block Andrew. This blog is not the same without him.
ReplyDeleteThis is getting utterly ridiculous now. I'm starting to wonder if I'm caught in some sort of never ending nightmare or something. Every single Northern Hemisphere landmass is in the freezer right now, literally the only warmer than normal place in the Northern Hemisphere other than the arctic is the lower 48. It's like someone placed an anti-winter bubble over everything between the Mississippi River and the Atlantic Ocean, as the western states will be getting in on the action soon. Someone must have pressed the pause button on the PNA too, because I've never seen any teleconnection remain at the exact same level for six straight weeks. It has to change at some point, right? It just has to. Right? Please? Something tells me it won't. Yeah I know it's early but I'm just about ready to throw in the towel, because I do believe I've read this book before.
ReplyDeleteI think Andrew was the one who said this winter will be similar to last years?
ReplyDelete6-10 days of Lakes cutters then it's our turn. We WILL not get skunked entirely this year.
ReplyDeleteI see that Andrew is back, posting as Anonymous (post at 9:39AM)
ReplyDeleteCan there be a rule that any post mentioning Andrew gets deleted? It is detrimental to this blog to be giving a single prick this much attention. At least all the moping about the weather sucking is, well, weather related.
ReplyDelete10 days out always looks promising and then the next run it's gone. I won't trust these runs until we see change in the pattern on day 6 or 7 instead of day 10.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott, how is it that the storm of the century, March 1993 blizzard, was forecast very accurately like 7 days before it hit, and now 20 years later we seem to have reliability issues with models?
DeleteIs it because we are seeing new patterns and trends that the models haven't seen before?
Thanks
Andy
It could have been that the factors leading up to the storm were so extreme that it allowed the models to really latch on to the correct solution well in advance. They did the same thing with Sandy, for the most part. Some models had the eventual track essentially nailed 9 days out and stuck with it to the end.
DeleteI will find a center in you
ReplyDeleteI will chew it up and leave
I will work to elevate you
Just enough to bring you down
I am just a worthless liar
I am just an imbecile
I will only complicate you
Trust in me and fall as well.
-Long range model guidance
Couldn't resist, it was too perfect.
Going to be snowy the end of the month based on my data.
ReplyDeleteWhen does the GFS truncate? That air mass in Canada at 240 is kinda sexy.
ReplyDeleteNever mind..Didn't see that Scott says he doesn't trust it yet.
DeleteModeling and resolution of those models are MUCH better than back in 1993. The proof of that is Sandy which was well forecast to strike the NYC area 7 days out. Long range placement of upper air ridges and troughs are more difficult to forecast because there are more variables involved in their placement.
ReplyDeleteScott
I think the forecasting for March 93 blizzard was even more impressive than sandy. At least Sandy existed for quite some time as a TD, TS, the hurricane. The March 93 blizzard was forecast long before the storm even existed. If the records I'm reading are right, it was around March 2 that they started talking about it and the storm formed around the 12th,and hit us a day or two later.
ReplyDeleteIt was a great storm and glad I lived to see it.
Andy
You probably will not see another one.
ReplyDeleteSnow fell from Florida to Maine in that blizzard. Many snowfall records where broken by that storm. The wind whipped for days following the storm. It was a great storm. The last blizzard warning in Rochester was in March of 1999. There were two big snow makers in one week that march. We will see more blizzards in the future, could this be the year for a big one. There is plenty of time left Both Rochester blizzard I saw happened in March.
ReplyDeleteI remember those back to back storms in my 99 also. That was awesome.
DeleteBut the 1993 blizzard was absolutely amazing.
Andy
I'm old enough to remember the blizzard of 77.. now that was awesome.
ReplyDeleteI'm old enough to remember 66. Best storm ever. No school for a week! Drifts from rooftop to rooftop! Ah the good ole days....
ReplyDeleteI don't remember the blizzard of '77 and I was a teenage kid in ROC. I do remember a storm circa 77-79 that pounded BUF but veered away from us at the last minute. How much snow did ROC get in the blizzard of '77?
ReplyDeleteI was just 4 yo for the blizzard of 66 and I remember the snow drifted so high in our front yard that it was up to the top of the lamp post. We needed a front loader to clear our driveway.
Andy
We were stranded at the firehouse in North Greece for a week. They had to "rescue" us with a front loader right down North Greece Road. I was 6 and I remember it so clearly!! Channel 8 did a piece on it a few years ago. It's on You Tube. Best storm ever. Scott say's in the piece that its a 30 year storm. We are overdue!!
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_bfskNU5OA
Blizzard of 77 was notable for it's prolonged wind more than amount of snow. I think total snow was only a foot or so. It was just the wind that piled it into giant drifts that made it most memorable. Buffalo got squished because snow was blown in off a frozen lake Erie.
ReplyDeleteSide note: Next weekend is starting to interest me a little.
Don't tease us or yourself with next weekends models. I'm no forecaster, but I'll take odds that what looks interesting now is gone within a few runs. :)
DeleteAndy
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Any thoughts out there about Christmas week? Yeah, I know it's way way too early. We normally watch Channel 10 (I'd rather watch 8 but my wife insists on 10 - I sneak in watching your weather when she isn't looking). So before they start their "Oh, there's going to be a pattern shift, and tons of snow, and blah blah blah" like they do EVERY year, and scare the tar out of me because we have to drive on Christmas day to relatives' houses, any signs of storms, etc. BUT OH, we HAVE to have a White Christmas, now don't we.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are great. I remember all the snows starting with '77. I was in 1st grade in Niagara Falls. Most of the kids walked home for lunch. Only 5 of us stayed at school for lunch. That day, only ONE walked back from lunch. We had the whole afternoon to play, and got to leave school early. Boy have times changed.
Please don't think I'm against having a white Christmas. However, it's a heckuva lot easier to drive to church and to relatives' houses about 2 hours each way if the weather isn't bad.
ReplyDelete