If You Want Snow...Think Euro!
Now that we have all cried our eyes out about a white Christmas, lets look ahead to next week! If you want snow, look at the Euro. It has 2 noteworthy systems. The first over the weekend, bringing a general light snow to WNY on Sunday. Just a few inches, but enough to whiten the ground and cover the grass and ugly brown snow piles again. Then, Another (possibly more significant) system late Monday/Tuesday morning. This one could bring more substantial snow to the area. There are timing differences with the GFS on the first system, and the GFS is much weaker with system #2. BUT yes, that pattern change is coming. Almost looks like this Christmas "Santabomb" (yes, it'll bomb out) helps to draw that arctic air south, in combination with the weekend system. Still looks much colder for the last week of 2014 and pretty active. Will it materialize? We will see.
In the meantime, happy holidays, even if you're not getting the big snow you asked for from Santa. Maybe we should be nicer in the New Year and Mother Nature will reward us? :) I have to say - this blog has been much more positive with less trolling this season. Let's keep it going!
I refuse to even get near that sweet Euro pie until I can be certain it isn't just a dream this time.
ReplyDeleteChristmas won't be white this year, but the high wind and possible thunderstorms should at least make it more exciting. As if my family doesn't create enough havoc during holiday get-togethers. Of course I'm directly responsible for almost all of it, but still...
Will wait for the Christmas mess to pass through first. Lake water has to be fairly warm still.. maybe that could help us out down the road a bit?
ReplyDeleteAny indication we will have any issues flying from Charlotte to ROC Monday midday? BTW, the weather is just as hideous down here. Monday and Tuesday featured a Rochester favorite, overcast and drizzly.
ReplyDeleteShort answer: no.
DeleteLong answer: nope.
Farmington you will have the wait for the great CCCC and since he was, I am sure, throwing some down last night, it could be a long wait.
ReplyDeleteI don't throw down on weekdays broski.
DeleteThere will be a Blizzard in The Flower City within the next 3 months please mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteStacey,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update. I sure hope something materializes with snow in one or both of those events. I'm worried it's going to be a bit too warm for the weekend event but hoping I'm wrong.
Merry Christmas to you and everyone contributing to this blog.
Andy
Again we keep hearing a pattern change is coming. KW last night was crazy about it coming. I do not see it at all. I think this is going to be a mild and week winter sorry snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your credentials to make such claim that you see things contradictory to the professional Mets? Are you a met student, professional met yourself, gut feel, wild assed guess or just trolling? How about some links?
Deletehttp://www.vgmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/son-this-is-bait.png
DeleteIt's quite clear to me that the models still don't have a clue regarding any storminess for next week. There will be chances however, with the ensembles maintaining a cold look right through the first week of January. There may be a brief relaxation during the cold spell, which is nothing unusual or alarming. Meanwhile the PV is starting to show signs of splitting in early January, with one lobe resting squarely over North America. That would portend a negative AO and cold continuing past the end of the ensembles' time range. So things are developing nicely for the foreseeable future if you're a winter lover.
ReplyDeleteThat'll be all from me for awhile, I'm off to Buffalo for holiday merriment and I won't have access to a computer until at least tomorrow afternoon. I hope you all have the greatest Christmas of your lives, stay safe and don't let those outdoor decorations blow away ;)
No snow next week either. It will be cold but mainly dry next week. The arctic high will keep any systems suppressed to the South. I am going to stay positive that things will change but it is not looking good for us snow lovers. I think Scott will be way off on his 110-130" this year. I agree with the bloggers that say 60-80 at most.
ReplyDeleteDid you read the very first line of the post above you?
Delete"I am going to stay positive that things will change, here is a hopelessly pessimistic outlook regarding the next two and a half months." -Snowdog
Deletethis is what im talking about, will you please explain to me what a few inches would be???? i think a few would more than cover the grass, horrible forecasting stacey and wroc. no other station is forecasting anything but flurries and here you are with a few inches.... gimme a break
ReplyDeleteThen why do you even read this blog if it is so bad???
Deletebecause its worth a good laugh....thats why
ReplyDeleteAll quiet storm wise for the next 7-10 days. So as a famous QB said just relax people.
ReplyDeleteThe models are starting to get a vague clue regarding next week's storm potential, but it's a new development. The mean of current solutions would leave us high and dry with the snow staying south of here, but we all know how that situation can end up at this time range. Still way too early to give up on it.
ReplyDeleteA very knowledgeable long range forecaster on both AmericanWx and the AccuWx forum, who goes by the user name blizzardOf96, thinks the second half of January could produce for the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region as a -PNA/-AO/-NAO regime sets up. Recall that last season's predominantly negative PNA worked wonders for us in the snowstorm department, as it kept the storm track from moving too far offshore. "It is not looking good for us snow lovers" huh? What I'm seeing points to quite the opposite situation. In the meantime we're still on course for the arctic hammer to drop right before the new year, and in my experience we go snowless during an arctic outbreak precisely never. If we don't feel impacts from the southern stream critter then we'll have to keep an eye out for much more subtle northern stream disturbances, especially with the lake temps still running above average.
Sorry but we have heard this before. I recall peopel saying the second half of December would be snowy and cold and that did not happen. I love how it is now the second half of January. When that does not work out it will be the second half of February.
DeleteI quote "we go snowless during an arctic outbreak precisely never." Meaning c4 doesn't expect a complete shut out the first half of January in the snow department. He just stated that it MAY continue into the second half and be even more favorable as the set up evolves.
DeleteAnd of course we could have a frozen tundra without snow, too. Because weather forecasting is a probability statement. I don't know why people can't grasp that.. I mean your forecast says 60% chance of precipitation for a reason.
"I recall peopel [sic] saying the second half of December would be snowy and cold and that did not happen."
DeleteThey said "cold." They never said "snowy," at least not with any confidence. And yes, it was a little delayed, which happens pretty frequently (but not always). Those delays are no longer happening.
"I love how it is now the second half of January."
No, it's not the second half of January. I'm just pinpointing that time frame as a period of potential interest. Otherwise we're definitely going to get cold for awhile long before that time, and when cold settles in around here the snow eventually follows.
"When that does not work out it will be the second half of February."
List out every ensemble, SST configuration and teleconnection progression which could argue in favor of that prediction. Or better yet, just post a picture of the talking ass that controls your keyboard.
talking ass that controls your keyboard...lol
ReplyDeleteJust read that the Euro Weeklies are a torch Jan 12th - 25th. Don't know if that means a thing to anyone. No idea of the skill of those that far out.
1) The person who made that tweet lives in south Jersey. Their torch isn't necessarily ours.
Delete2) All long range models are abysmal beyond Week 2.
I should have just sat on my hands a little longer before saying anything. As usual, people who know what they are talking about, come along and calm the weather weenies. It ended up as a positive because I didn't realize HM was on twitter and now I can follow him. Always liked that guy.
DeleteAdditionally some heavy skepticism by a red tag on AmericanWx:
Delete"So the heights go from above to below to Above In AK. Yeah ok. Classic weeklies. Meanwhile the week 1 and 2 forecasts have trended over 200 meters higher in AK compared to Monday's forecast. Good luck dry jumping those forecasts."
Basically the sentiment expressed here is that the sort of turnaround necessary to go from a frigid signal in the high-latitude Pacific region, to an extremely mild one in a span of just one week would have to be astronomical. I did get a glimpse of the temp anomalies for the week in question though...yikes is all I can say. The north Pacific returns to a cold look the following week though, as if that comforting fact holds any more merit than the pronounced letdown prior to it.
HM is good people. Lots of good people on that forum, especially in the New England and Mid Atlantic subforums. They really know how to tame the vast, pulsating ocean of hyperactive weenies don't they...
DeleteStill see nothing on models in regards to potential snow storms. Again think we are going to struggle to reach 75 inches.
ReplyDeleteuhhh...
Deletehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_33.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_35.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122600/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_38.png
...get your eyes checked. I could've posted the Euro too but it's doing its usual "amped and NW" thing that it always does. Will it verify? Who knows, that's not the point. And yes I am fully aware that the parallel GFS eventually becomes a rainer, the point is that you're wrong and go away.
"Again think we are going to struggle to reach 75 inches."
And take your talking ass with you.
CCC. where do you go to get the models you show above? Thanks
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
DeleteClicking the tabs will display dropdown menus with all of the available models.
Well just look at the 12z GFS, Canadian and last Euro and there is nothing for the next week here in Rochester. You can post all you want CCCC but I just looked at the latest runs and nada.
ReplyDeleteWell that's just fine and dandy, but the graphics I posted earlier are for Day 8 and beyond. And anyway the 12z GFS and GGEM still show a storm for that time period:
Deletehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif
You can post all you want Mr. Anon E. Moose, but it will always be a losing effort.
It is nice to see the sun and have some sunshine; especially as the past several days have been gray and cloudy. Good to just stand in the sun and enjoy!
ReplyDeleteAmen to that. Overcast and dry should not be a thing.
DeleteWell. I hope things change with the models this week for next weekend or we are looking at a wet storm again as it will pass west of us as of now.
ReplyDelete