Will We, or Won't We?...
...Get that storm mid-week. I know you all have been glued to the models. The answer? I don't know! Models agree that we'll get a little clipper-type system Tuesday with a little snow. After that, the Euro develops the coastal low further north, in the Mid-Atlantic, it hangs out over New England, morphs with our clipper and we get some decent lake enhancement. With this scenario, the eastward progression is slow, keeping us in the lake enhancement for a decent amount of time. If that happens, we're in the snow for a good 36 hours. I'm not sure I totally buy that it'll be that slow moving.
GFS - agrees with the Euro in developing that coastal low in the Mid-Atlantic, but keeps it further east with minimal impact for us.
The NAM - is just coming in and we're just starting to see where it wants to go with this. NAM develops the coastal low much further south - into the Carolinas. Whether or not we get blasted with some snow, it'll be gone by late week and into the weekend. No white Christmas from this system!
I know many of you have been keeping a close eye on all of this (especially the snow lovers!), so I figured we'd just start a new thread & talk about it here. Matt should have an update later on this weekend and we will certainly have a clearer picture by Sunday/Monday. In the meantime, happy model watching :)
We won't!
ReplyDeleteThanks for showing the blog some love. We do really appreciate it. Waiting and watching is just part of the deal with weather.
ReplyDeleteAnd just like that, long range shows a much more suppressed ridge and trending way colder than expected...
ReplyDeleteAny update on the most recent EURO?
ReplyDeleteYes as I have been saying TOO far East as usual we will be looking at this and complaining well at least Snowdog will be.
ReplyDeleteAnon 2:40, you must have not looked at the most recent Euro then, cause it puts us in a good spot to see moderate snowfall
ReplyDeleteWhy even bother referencing the GFS at this point? It's literally the only model on our little blue planet that doesn't have an amplified storm. And as expected it began caving earlier today. I could probably build a better model out of an abacus and some twigs.
ReplyDeleteAnyway...the Euro is most certainly NOT too far east, and would lash our region with at least moderate snowfall as Weatherguy mentioned. The GGEM and UKMET are in the exact same boat. The Euro ensemble mean is further east, but most of its members are closer to the operational Euro. And also as Weatherguy mentioned, the warmup we were slated to deal with has dampened drastically over the past day or so. We might see a few days of well above normal temps, but that should do it before major changes get underway around the 20th or so.
Also it's pretty shocking to see multiple News 8 posts happen less than 3 centuries apart. Good deal, I could get used to it.
ReplyDeleteSo CCCC when we will have a more exact idea of whether or not this storm is coming Sunday?
ReplyDeleteProbably early in the work week, although we've been 5 days out from the storm's arrival for about the past three days since it keeps slowing down.
DeleteI had thought previously that we might be too warm for lake enhancement, but now Stacey mentions that it may occur and the QPF map from the WPC seems to agree. Shows why I don't do this for a living -_-
ReplyDeleteNew guy Matt just said on News 8 a few inches for Rochester big stuff East. Again TOO far East as always.
ReplyDeleteIts a long way away, why take such a hardcore stance so early?
DeleteHe's going to do this every time we have a storm potential, just ignore it. I don't know what he gets out of posting the same thing over and over anyway. Also I'm pretty sure Matt would've forecasted nothing at all yesterday, so you can see what direction we're headed at the moment.
DeleteJust watched all three stations weather. 8 and 10 mention it and remain slightly optimistic but both sounded more like we would be on the edge. 13 guy said no big storms on horizon. They had Tuesday and Wednesday as sun and clouds I think. Sounds like from the blog there is enough evidence that something might transpire so im surprised 13 remained so quiet about it.
ReplyDeleteThey are always the last ones to the party. Remember the recent blizzard? They forecasted a showery cold front instead...from 5 days out. I don't bother paying attention to them.
DeleteIf you think getting fringed by coastal systems is frustrating then just imagine the poor souls in Hartford and Springfield during the December nor'easter of 1992:
ReplyDelete"The east winds, as they interacted with the higher terrain in Worcester County, MA were forced to rise quite sharply, a process called upslope flow. A storm total of 40" of paralyzing snow occurred at Worcester, MA as a result. On the leeward side of the Worcester hills the air descended, and thus compressed causing it to warm and dry out. The subsequent downslope flow into the Connecticut river valley, dried the air out so much that average snowfalls amounted to only three inches around Hartford, CT, and Springfield, MA."
This storm will move east with the set-up. Just stating this by what I see not to be negative.
ReplyDeleteHope you are right!!
DeleteEURO goes warm and brings rain.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to try and stumble through a post this very early AM regarding next week's storm potential: no major changes have occurred since Friday afternoon. UKMET has the best depiction for us with a broad low sitting across northern NJ for an extended amount of time. GGEM ticked slightly east while the Euro held serve. GFS is catching on but is still way behind the times. Zero indication of mostly rain from any guidance, the greatest issue at this point remains the westward extent of appreciable snowfall.
ReplyDeleteIt still looks like we will be on the edge again with heavy snow in eastern NY Both channel 8 and 10 had the snow just East of us. We will see but this looks like a near miss again.
ReplyDeleteLatest EUIRO: shovelable snow to ROC next TUE/Wed; crushes Finger Lakes. Still too early to commit...but we hold fast to its potential. KW
ReplyDeleteSounds like we at least get the ground covered and anything beyond that is a bonus!
ReplyDeleteStill a lot of uncertainty about storm track. 5- miles west shift and we could get blasted or 50 miles east and we get an inch. Stay tuned to CCCC for latest updates over the weekend.
ReplyDeletesorry 50 miles west
ReplyDeleteLatest GFS a great run for areas north east of us.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS finally found the right path but is still running around like a headless drunk chicken. It has no idea which shortwave to focus on as the dominant one. We'll be waiting until at least tonight for the model to fall fully in line with the other guidance.
ReplyDeleteCCCC what is your gut feeling on this storm and do not tell me you a lot of vodka in your gut.
ReplyDeleteMy only gut feeling is that we see something more appreciable than a coating. I'm not going to get more specific than that until we have full shortwave sampling, because the models are still throwing all sorts of wonky kinks into the mix.
ReplyDeleteWell that's a new one...the UKMET now wants to drive the storm due north from NYC into the Champlain Valley. The GGEM continues to have issues with cold air on a track east of Long Island. If there's any other gut feeling I have right now it's ride the Euro like a prize racehorse.
ReplyDeleteThe new 12z ECMWF run is in I am starting to get excited a little.
ReplyDelete12z Euro is the best run so far. Entire region gets plastered. But it's still early in the game...
ReplyDeleteIt would seem that the Euro depiction has the bulk of our snow occurring once the low is northeast of NYC, as bands of lake enhanced precipitation rotate across the region as far west as the Niagara Frontier over the course of 36 hours. So if we do receive significant impacts they would likely be of the long duration variety.
ReplyDelete12Z euro is getting more "interesting," although hands onto the system for quite a while over the Northeast. Might end up being more of a lake enhanced event ROC & west than synoptic. Maybe more Finger Lakes synoptic? As noted, it's still early though! (Although it feels like it's ALWAYS early until the storm is upon us!). One thing is for sure though - weather is humbling! & it's interesting to watch the models and storms evolve in the preceding days.
ReplyDeleteStacey
This storm will have a much bigger impact on the Finger Lakes and East not the metro and western points. Still not sure it will be all snow mixing/rain issues could happen.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/541300618464210944
Deleterekt
Noob here. What model is that from? What does that put the metro at, and what is the sweet spot at? There's no scale in the picture. Which (was illegally posted?)
Delete-It's from the Euro model.
Delete-It puts the metro at well over a foot.
-The sweet spot is from central NY up through northern New England.
-Ryan Maue can post these graphics since they're from his own website.
The EURO looks much weaker than before with the storm.
ReplyDeleteIt's 3 mb weaker at hour 96 and 8 mb weaker at hour 120. Not a big strength difference and it has zero discernible impact on snowfall. It's still a strong system with a ton of moisture.
DeleteThe NWS out of Buffalo is not making much of this storm based on their discussion. Are they out of touch with reality????
ReplyDeleteAfter that epic lake event...it kind of is.
DeleteThey do this constantly...if it isn't lake effect then they downplay the hell out of it until the last minute. Unless the Atlantic manages to torch the mid levels from 300 miles away then I doubt we see any prolonged mixing, plus 850 mb temps should get cold enough for some lake influence as the system wanders toward New England.
DeleteThere will be a blizzard in The Flower City within 5 days.Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteInteresting not one peep from Scott? Plus anyone know what happen to the other met John D?
ReplyDeleteScott is probably staying away from even casual forecasting today. John went to TWC News.
Delete