WINTER'S WORST THIS WEEKEND
It's been a very snowy and cold stretch recently but this weekend is shaping up to be downright brutal for much of western New York.
A powerful Arctic cold front is taking aim on the region and it promises to bring heavy, wind-driven snow and the coldest air we've seen in over 20 years.
We'll start off Saturday rather uneventful with some light snow but as the front charges through the region by early afternoon, conditions will go downhill in a hurry. A band of intense snow will accompany the front and combined with gusty winds, near blizzard conditions will be possible for a brief time Saturday afternoon. Thanks to the extreme instability and dynamic support along the front, a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out.
After a brief lull in the snow during the early evening behind the front, lake effect snow will start to intensify late Saturday night and then continue into Sunday morning. Periods of heavy snow combined with winds gusting over 30 mph will create whiteout conditions again, especially close to the Lakeshore. Travel could become very difficult during this time.
Between the initial band of snow tomorrow afternoon and the lake effect tomorrow night and Sunday morning, total accumulations could be significant along the Lakeshore:
The bigger story will be the dangerous cold moving into the region. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb above zero and if we remain below zero all day, it will be the first time since 1982. Wind chills will be extreme with readings feeling like 25-45 below zero.
The blowing and drifting snow, whiteout conditions, and dangerous cold will be extreme even by western New York standards.
Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones
Should have saved the "Uncle" headline for this post
ReplyDeleteWas hoping to see a more westward trend with next weeks storm but do not see it.
ReplyDeleteI guess we will have to keep waiting. Still not pulling the plug yet. In the meantime it looks like this will be the most wintry 24-36 hours we had seen. Not a ton of snow but if it all comes together like they say in terms on wind, snow, and cold. Something to remember this winter by for sure
ReplyDeleteAreas by the lake could see a ft of snow. That's pretty good. Some may see more, Hoping I am one of them as I live near the lake.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice this time around for everyone to see some lake effect. That stuff is so tough to predict and never behaves! Farmington is not that far from the lAke relatively speaking.
ReplyDeleteI see the NWS has upped the totals in the lakeshore counties to 8-14. Ontario and Livingston counties got upped to 5-10 from 3-7. I'm in Ontario county. Think these amounts will come close to verifying by tomorrow night? I guess at least we get the quick 1-3 from the squall line later
ReplyDeleteI would like thunder snow for Valentine's Day ��
ReplyDeleteLooking at the radar and moderate snow now is this front coming in earlier than expected?
ReplyDeleteNo I believe this is synoptic type snow from the warm advection that happens in front of a clipper/ cold front type system. 2pm roughly for the arctic front
ReplyDeleteWinter is getting serious now folks......just a bone to pick, but why does the stupid 7 day weather font at the bottom of the weather page for WROC just say "light snow" for today and tomorrow? They should get rid of that for sure if it's going to be more serious. BTW - this seems like the most winter Storm Warnings in a three week period that I can remember.
ReplyDeleteBe safe everyone
Chris in Ontario
It's going to be the heaviest light snow that you ever experience in your life >___>
DeleteAlready 4" of new fluff in south Holley/Clarendon.
ReplyDeleteSW
That lake enhanced convergence band wasn't particularly well forecasted, or well modeled for that matter. Always going to get surprises whenever the lakes are involved, even the frozen ones. Radar clearly shows the band moving markedly southward as the arctic front prepares for its grand entrance. The brief period with very high snowfall rates, strong wind and possible thundersnow with the frontal passage might end up being the most intense part of the storm. And if you're planning to be at SU for the basketball game today then you should consider skedaddling within the next few hours.
ReplyDeleteNot much action yet where I am, but obviously that will change by later today. I like where I sit right now, just a few miles inland from the lake.
CCCC can you tell me exactly where the front is right now? Which radar site do you prefer?
ReplyDeleteWhat is forecast west of here for tonite?
ReplyDeleteWhere exactly? The forecast differs depending on which local area you're talking about.
DeleteI typically use the NWS radar.
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like the front is currently draped across the west end of Lake Ontario.
Business is picking up...now moderate fluff in Webster. I'm not terribly surprised that the radar isn't picking up on it very well.
ReplyDeleteThanks CCCC.
ReplyDeleteBernie Rayno says mid week storm is for New England area not us.
ReplyDeleteOr it could be for the fishes and spare New England entirely. Or it could track further west and send the snow further inland. Bernie has to make a call of some kind, but we have to let the current storm pass on before anything else becomes clear.
DeleteIs the green stripe on the NWS radar that stretches from Rochester to Jamestown the front/ burst of snow or is it something else and the squall we have Been hearing about is further west ?
ReplyDeleteThat's a convergence zone ahead of the much ballyhooed main burst.
DeleteCCCC what time do you think that main burst will come through the metro with the possible thunder
DeleteAround 2:30 or 3pm the way it looks right now.
DeleteI would like to know that too
ReplyDeleteSnowing a pretty good clip right now. I'd love to see this squall. Hopefully it doesn't dissapoint
ReplyDeleteKW tweeted here comes the front an hour ago? I think this is it?
ReplyDeleteThe squall line was a dud in Hamlin. It was only accompanied by a wind direction change from southwest to northwest. The winds are light and so is the snow . I hope the LES doesn't disappoint in Hamlin also. I cant complain though we have been doing very well in the snowfall department so far in February.
ReplyDeleteSnowing hard in Chili right now, temp dropped significantly also.
ReplyDeleteWhy did CCCC say the squall line was coming in around 2:30 or 3:00? It just cam through and was nothing big?
ReplyDeleteDoesn't look too impressive on the northern end of it.
ReplyDeleteI had a feeling that this squall would dissapoint.
ReplyDeleteThe squall is over those things are hard to predict heck CCCC did not even know it was coming.
ReplyDeletehttp://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
ReplyDelete"ARCTIC BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK MARKED BY A SHARP NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND A BAND OF INCREASING REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON RADAR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS BAND WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR...WITH A SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS."
Alright so we all jumped the gun? Lol
ReplyDeleteBoarder line heavy snow in Farmington. Falling straight down so not much wind at the moment
ReplyDeleteDid not jump the gun in Hamlin. It is definitely a dud in Hamlin winds have increased out of the north and the snow, not so much.
ReplyDeleteLet's play "spot the lack of collaboration":
ReplyDeletehttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/NE_Snow.png
I am not calling the entire event a dud in Hamlin, just the squall line. We will be busy with the strong winds overnight, I just hope the LES doesn't set up just south of my house in North Hamlin.
ReplyDeleteHow can it be snowing like crazy in Farmington but not in hamlin. It had to have come through there?
ReplyDeleteWe had some snow early thanks to Lake Erie and the convergence zone, 1-2 inches with very light winds. The anticipated squall line, did not and will not, pan out in Hamlin. Currently not snowing in Hamlin with North breezes. We are going to have to wait and see how the Lake enhancement sets up this evening as the low intensifies to or east.
ReplyDeleteI will say with the 2 inches this morning I have serious doubts of getting to 8-14 inches for this event in Hamlin. I will be surprised if we end up with more than 6 inches total. The latest 4KM NAM runs have been trending down with the snowfall totals.
ReplyDeleteWe were only supposed to get a few inches during the day...
DeleteYes, but the last few high resolution Nam runs have me worried. I have also been shafted WAY to many times by Lake Ontario in these type of events with such strong winds and such cold air. I really have my doubts.
DeleteI really wish there was a clickable station for Hamlin on the SREF site, because the one for KROC shows that the mean has been about as rock steady as can be for the past 4 runs. I'm sure the high res NAM won't take too much of your snow away ;)
DeleteHas the squall line gone threw or not? Very confusing.
ReplyDeleteDone deal, definite dud. :-(
ReplyDeleteWhat was that stuff CCCC posted then?
ReplyDeleteCan someone explain how Lake Erie is a factor for the snow to the west still? The map that CCCC linked shows heavier snow along Erie. How does that work when it is frozen over?
ReplyDeleteThe cold on the horizon is impressive. The 12Z ECMWF has arctic blast after arctic blast. It has even colder air forecasted for Wednesday-Friday than this weekend. Could this years Great Lakes ice coverage pass last seasons? That would be crazy.
ReplyDeleteIs that squall line coming to Fairport?
ReplyDeleteMost places picked up 2-3 inches with the initial batch. The zone forecast for the daytime called for...2-3 inches. Meanwhile the SREF mean for KROC continues to hover between 8 and 9 inches total. No more "dud" talk, unless you're referring to the arctic front which fell about sixteen tiers short of what was expected. Luckily we got some good fluff from the convergence band.
ReplyDeleteI agree, I will give the lake effect a chance.
DeleteNO!!!! it is done!!!!
ReplyDeleteI smell a fake...
ReplyDeleteNo I was just a little late with that post. That was referring to my disappointment in the squall line and nothing more.
DeleteThe juxtaposition was definitely a tad suspicious though :P
DeleteOh here we go...,
ReplyDeleteWaiting for the first cry of "bust" when we aren't cranking by dinner time.
ReplyDeleteI had a feeling the front would underperform . Just seemed a little too talked up. I'm sure they had reasons to think it would be impressive. Mother nature had her own agenda. Def no thunder etc. how soon is the lake effect going to crank up?
ReplyDeleteThe front definitely looked impressive in the mesoscale models. My suspicion is that the initial convergence band ate up a lot of the available moisture and left very little for the front. Looks like the lake effect won't get going in earnest until well after sunset, but once it does it will thump pretty good.
ReplyDeleteIt let up for a bit but it is actualky snowing pretty decent again here.
ReplyDeleteIt let way up a bit ago. Guess the honeymoon is over. Now have to wait for the rest...if it transpires like the NWS says it will.
ReplyDeleteCCCC - We are going to Darien Center tonite and was wondering the conditions there for later.
ReplyDeleteSnow picks up after 10pm or so, blowing and drifting will occasionally be a problem.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteKeep in mind that there will likely be lighter snow occurring before then, but the heavier stuff holds off until later this evening.
DeletePicked up 5 in Gananda from that front. Pretty impressive.
ReplyDeleteJn not one peep about midweek storm on his report tonight.
ReplyDeleteBecause there is not going to be one. Way to far south and east. I do not get his snowfall projection map. He has got more South of Rochester than the counties bordering the lake. Does not make sense.
ReplyDeleteLake effect will be minimal blown out of proportion like the,whole week has,been.
ReplyDeleteLake effect is not supposed to start until after Midnight but I am beginning to wonder if it is going to form. It is starting to the West of us.
ReplyDeleteI was skeptical earlier and I am now also. Not one flake in Farmington right now but as you said after midnight. Point and click says 4-7 tonight for Farmington. I'll believe it when I see it. We did get more than I expected earlier. Probably 3-4" in driveway.
ReplyDeleteWe have about 2 new inches so far. I would say we have about 4 maybe 5 inches total from yesterday morning. The snow pack just keeps getting deeper and deeper, nice.
ReplyDeleteI would like to note the time of my earlier blog. There was an anonymous blogger a week or so ago, that said road crews sleep in on Sundays. I laughed, you have to love sleeping in until 3am on Sunday mornings.
ReplyDeleteAnother blown forecast with winter storm warning too. I am starting to think Cuomo is right.
ReplyDeleteYou're as big of an idiot as Cuomo is.
Delete5-6 inches of fluff yesterday in Clarendon/Holley and 2 inches of lake snow last night for a total of 7 inches. That's the bottom end of the forecast total so not a bust, but admittedly that squall line and the lake effect didn't quite match the hype. Then again, east of the city was forecast to have the most LE so wounding what those totals will be. We are keeping up with the snow here but I know of others in dIre straits so it's hard to cheer for more snow at this point - 38 inches in 2 weeks by my tally - but there's always that part of us that won't be happy til we have to exit the house from the second story!
ReplyDeleteSW
Amen to the last sentence. Though I like the snow, just would like to have a little bit of a break right now from it, and a tad bit warmer, so that some of the snow can begin to melt. The mounts of snow is getting pretty hard and can be dangerous when you cannot see around the corner as you are driving our of your parking lot or driveway. Just my opinion, as I know others on the blog will say -- darn still now enough snow for me.
DeleteI should add that it's still snowing here although I don't think we were expected to add much to totals during the day?
ReplyDeleteSW
If the anon above had read into it enough, the winter storm warning was not issued for a huge storm and lot of snow. It was issued for the combination of strong winds, bitter wjnd chills, and yes some snow. I got more snow yesterday thatb we did last night, but all told I would say 8" here in Farmington which was pretty spot on with the lower end of forecast. Has mid week storm continued to trend OTS? Or has there been any ticks westward? Haven't heard from Bob in a while.
ReplyDeleteAnd just saw some pics/reports on WHEC twitter - sounds like expectations were certainly met closer to the lakeshore! Really impressive squalls last night apparently.
ReplyDeleteSW
I second that Farmington, I'd like to hear the resident experts' thoughts on KW comment that there will be a couple more snow threats this week.
ReplyDeleteWe live in Western New York -- it is going to snow. Just don't know how much yet. Be prepared -- winter is far from over, and from the latest -- Spring will be late in arriving.
DeleteIsn't the whole point of this bog to speculate and anticipate?
DeleteWhoever said that the Winter Storm would be a bust, obviously does not live in the City. It snowed pretty hard, and the mounts of snow are very high. Makes it hard to pull out of the parking lot onto the road, when you cannot see if a car is coming or not. Also the mounts of snow on the parking lots are getting pretty high, driving into work this morning, even in the parking lot of where I work. Soon parking spaces will make room for snow piles. Where to put all of the snow should be a contest.
ReplyDeleteAlso cannot believe the snow on many of the roof tops and icilices -- it looks like a winter wonderful land. Good morning to go for a run/walk. Enjoy!!!!
13 is calling for another 4+ inches of show today, with another 2+ inches tonight. What are they seeing that other are not. Though today was another 1-2" inches at most, and an 1" or less overnight.
ReplyDeleteStorm Tuesday over for us and that's good. Waiting for xXxX to officially throw in the towel because he was still hanging the drum about that one as of yesterday
ReplyDeleteI haven't been looking at models... What data is there that shows storm threat is over? And I'm pretty sure no more snow today. Lake effect has shut down pretty much. Not sure where 13 got those numbers from.
ReplyDeleteAll models have storm Octavia well south east of us.
ReplyDeleteThere are still a few models that give us a small impact but I believe this one will be a miss. New England may get hit yet again. This week should be cold but not a lot of snow outside of Lake effect.
ReplyDeleteSerious, serious business folks. Whiteout conditions up hear near the lake and I haven't seen this deep of a snowpack up here in 11 years.
ReplyDeleteI'm sad at the "weak" animals that will perish as a result of this harsh winter, but I realize that's part of nature.
Be safe out there and thanks for the good blogging (except for the anonymous tool at 6:48 AM) over the past few weeks.
Chris in Ontario
Really glad there will not e snow the rest of the week. I love snow but we need a break as does Mass. area. However I do not like this cold and unfortunately it looks crazy cold the rest of the week. Anyone know the long term outlook meaning beyond next week and March?
ReplyDeleteEuro weeklies showed week 3 ( last week in Feb ) still being cold. Back loaded winter might mean we have to wait till late March for consistent spring temps. That second part is just a guess.
DeleteNE Webster still getting blasted - heavy bursts of snow, near whiteouts at times. In fact, the past hour or so has been the worst since overnight. As usual, the radar fails to pick it up. If you're somewhere else and thinking of driving this way, don't.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone seen the video of the thunder snow from last night in Plymouth? Jim Cantore goes crazy. I get it. #sojealous
ReplyDeleteNo CCCC he is awol. Maybe bummed because I think him and the local meteorologists thought we were going to get this next storm.
ReplyDeleteNE Webster Update. Well, it let up for about 10 mins and I thought it might be over. Then it fired right back up again. Wave after wave of LES. Worst whiteout I've seen all day was about 15 mins ago. It's like nature is laughing at us: "NWS says the warning expires at 6? Oh yeah, I 'll show you..."
ReplyDeleteI was up late enough last night to see that extremely heavy squall rip through with insane rates. With all that's happened in the past few weeks that was really enough to keep me happy, final amounts be damned. I don't even know how much fell here for the whole event. 5 inches? 6 inches maybe? Didn't live up to the forecast numbers but that doesn't matter, it was brutal outside all day today which was the main point to be driven home. The next storm can finally be written off for our purposes, as we now have the strong model agreement and consistency that we previously lacked. I'll make sure to preserve some of my tears of disappointment in my 25 inch snowpack ;)
ReplyDeleteYou only have a 25 inch snowpack? I have to be close to 3 feet with drifts much deeper in Macedon. I'm honestly glad for the midweek miss. I've had more than enough snow.
DeleteSome of us are disappointed with the miss -- we want another Winter Storm and MORE snow.
DeleteWe will miss the system but good lake effect could happen again.
ReplyDeleteSo I've heard... Because of a northwest wind again after the storm slides by?
ReplyDeleteOnce again we miss out on a Winter Storm for this week and are bystanders. Was really looking forward to adding to the already 3 feet of snow currently have. Want to get that mount of snow up to the 2nd floor windows. There is still hope. Fingers crossed.
ReplyDeleteAs long as the trough remians way south I think most of the storms will slide well to our South. We will have a few bouts of light snow and lake effect this week.
ReplyDeleteMore snow would be nice but at the same time we have certainly not been left out this month so I'm on with a brief lul. Hopefully things pick back up but with this extreme cold not sure if storms will track our way. Lake effect may have to suffice later in week.
ReplyDeleteI agree Snowlover a break is nice for those of us who have to actually deal with this stuff.
ReplyDeleteWe ALL deal with it, not just a few.
DeleteI disagree. I don't think the cheerleaders on here have to deal with it much. Some of us have to roof rake, shovel, and help elderly neighbors out. I can't imagine wishing for a big storm on top of this when someone has spent most of the weekend dealing with it.
DeleteI'm starting to wonder how much snow is too much for a normal roof structure? My roof is built with trusses. 2x4' trusses to be exact and they are spaced 24" on center. If anyone out there has any idea of how much load it can take like per square foot or something it would make an interesting conversation since there isn't much else to blog about
ReplyDeleteDo you have a roof rake? If not I'd advise buying one and removing some of that snow since it isn't going to melt anytime soon. There are also companies in this area who will remove it for you (just google them). Just be careful if you rake to be gentle with your shingles and around your gutters.
DeleteBefore you go to any of the hardware stores, Lowes, etc. -- call first as many of the roof rakes, etc. are now back ordered or have waiting lists for customers. Also if you do plan to use a company who specializes in this, call and plan to wait a few days, as they are backed up with calls, etc. Way too much snow has fallen in the past couple of weeks or anyone to be able to keep up with it, and with the cold -- snow and ice are beginning to have an impact on roofs, sliding, etc.
DeleteI always get a kick how people complain about shoveling snow. We live in WNY for goodness sake get a snow blower. Since last Sunday, I have been at work for a total of 97 hours and I have found time to clean my driveway along with plenty of other stuff that needs to be done sleep not being at the top of that list. Bring on the snow, I love the belly aching it creates.
ReplyDeleteGood for you, I'm glad you are enjoying your overtime. I guess since you can manage so well then everyone should be able to. I'll tell that to my elderly neighbor who I've been helping all weekend, or maybe my other neighbor who has a roof leak now. But yeah, bring on more snow.
DeleteThe best I can tell you is it is going to snow during winter in WNY, so we better ALL get used to it. I guess complaining about it one way or the other fixes everything. Bring on the snow!!!!!!!!!!
DeleteI would also like to add it is probably better that old people don't drive during snowy conditions anyways so I wouldn't worry to much about their driveway. If I where you, I would be hoping for more snow and a slow melt, or your neighbor's ice damning will probably rip off the gutters and most of their overhang. Then there will be something to complain about.
DeleteShould we congratulate you that you have the physical ability to work and clear your driveway? I do the same and my driveway is usually one of the cleaner ones in the neighborhood. With that said, there are many around me that struggle with the extra snow. We are ALL used to it snowing in WNY, the issue is the extra snow on the ground coupled with more snow on top of it. That isn't normal considering Hetsko said the other day this will probably the 2nd or 3rd coldest Feb, in recorded history. No thaw means all the snow stays. The longer it stays the more hardships there are to people unlike you or me that can handle it. I think tornadoes are fascinating but I don't root for them because I know the damage they cause people. The point that Anon 11:07 is making is think about more than just your situation. Everyone is different.
DeleteFair enough, I will think about everyone as I secretly root for MORE SNOW.
DeleteThey just put up Lake effect snow watches for Wayne county and East, but they mention in the HWO that significant accumulations could fall in Oreleans and Monroe county as well. So why do they not have watches up for Orleans and Monoroe county. So stupid.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is a combination of the following:
Delete-Any accumulation for Monroe and Orleans won't occur in a short enough time window to warrant a watch
-If any significant accumulation occurs for those two counties it will be restricted to areas near the lake
-Lack of confidence in any significant accumulation occurring in those counties in the first place
I'm hedging my bets towards point #2 right now since the mean wind direction currently looks to be WNW. That would restrict any potential for significant amounts to the lakeshore communities. They also included the word "localized" in the HWO, whereas a watch would be issued if significant amounts were expected to be more widespread.
Moaning and groaning didn't make more storms happen back in January, and it won't make our current snowpack disappear nor will it prevent future storms. We'll simply have to press onward and deal with whatever happens. Speaking of future storms, there is yet another potential for one right around the weekend. I'd favor an inland track for that one right now with the PNA tanking around that time, which brings the risk of a cutter back into the mix. It'll depend upon the degree of phasing between the branches of the jet stream as per usual. In other words, our old friend Mr. Massive Uncertainty has returned for another round of fun times.
ReplyDeleteCould be BIG time lake snows Wednesday through Friday included Metro Rcohester this time. This will be an event where the parameters are more favorable for hefty lake snows from Orleans to Oswego.
ReplyDeleteMore so East into Wayne County though could get a thumping of snow. Hopefully the winds will be more NW instead of WNW.
DeleteSeriously you truly want more snow right now. Come on, you must be making some money off of the snow we already have or else you would be not wishing and hoping for a change in the wind direction. Several people are simply at their breaking point -- listen to the snow plow operators, tow truck operators -- how much more than anyone person take. it is almost like you are wishing for weather that could put people at risk.
DeleteMaybe if we wish harder than Snowdog we can take some of the future snow away...
DeleteCCC. I do not see the system you are referring to for this weekend. A cutter storm would suck. If it goes West it could mean a rapid melt and then a quick freeze.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro has a consolidated storm while the other models have ingredients that don't quite come together completely.
DeleteSo I do have a roof take but I have a two story house so unless I get up on a ladder I won't be able to get much other than the first couple of feet. I guess people who have adequate ventilation and good jnsulation get the harder times with lots of snow since it doesn't melt from heat loss like homes with poor insulation/ventilation. The icicle situation is also starting to look dNgerous for people And their gutters. I break them off when they are small
ReplyDeleteIf you are worried about ice dams doing only a few feet can help. It will help keep the gutters clear of snow, just dont snag your rake on the gutter and pull the gutter down. But for weight concerns it sounds like you would need to get higher on a ladder which can be dangerous. How thick is the snow up there?
ReplyDeleteThis weather is a little like the pre-blizzard 1977. A month or so of constant storms and below average temps that freeze the lakes and could reduce lake snows but piles up snow that can easily be blown around. That was a once in a lifetime wind event but if that were to happen now the results would be similar.
ReplyDeleteOh boy...
ReplyDelete"IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME VERY INTERESTING ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS TRACK WOULD SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO AN ICY MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGES...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH AN ICE YET...BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING."
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
The very last thing we need right now is significant icing. Snow is only the third worst possible outcome even if you hate it, since a west track with warmth and plain rain in this setup would cause more problems than it would eliminate. There would be enough of it to create flooding issues with several inches of liquid equivalent locked up in our snowpack. Unfortunately that particular scenario is a more likely outcome than a whiff south in my estimation. Here's what the discussion has to say about the lake effect:
"SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FROM NIAGARA TO MONROE COUNTY AS WELL...BUT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT FOR THOSE PARTICULAR COUNTIES."
My bet is that those several inches will be confined to within a few miles of the lake.
So. I'm at a McDonalds in Cortland on my way home. Was 14 near Philadelphia where I was this weekend. We left Saturday morning. How much snow do you think awaits us in our driveway near the thruway?
ReplyDeleteMy guess is 5 inches of wind-waxed pixie dust.
DeleteNot one local meteorologist mentioned any storm potential this weekend on their forecasts? Not sure what you are talking about CCCC?
ReplyDeleteThey'll bring it up eventually...at the very least we can count on KW tweeting about it at least once or twice by Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteEven if the ice/ rain scenario pans out we go back in the freezer right afterward right? So everything will freeze into concrete. The snow right now has remained soft since it has not warmed enough to bring out the moisture in it
ReplyDeleteGoing back into the freezer after getting substantial ice would be even worse. Power outages followed by more frigid temps...homes left unheated for days...that would be completely awful. We're lucky such a situation is always highly unlikely around here, even in this case. A soaking rain followed by freezing would only delay the inevitable, or quite possibly make things worse down the line since even more water could end up in the snowpack. Basically we want snow or nothing for here on out, and then once the warmth comes we want it to include very little rainfall so we can melt the snow with gentle ease.
ReplyDeleteAm I freaking anyone out yet? Don't gas up the generators or start gathering ark supplies, we aren't on disaster watch ;)
I can't wait for someone to give me grief over outlining a few possible worst-case scenarios. All this talk of widespread power outages and biblical floods...just so irresponsible >.<
ReplyDeleteI can't get over how locked in this pattern is... Long range shows nothing but the same until at least through the first week of March. And personally, I hope we can somehow manage a decent storm this weekend to put us within reach of setting the all time Feb. snowfall record, even though it is a long shot...
ReplyDeleteCCCC was right on. About 18 inches on one side of the driveway and 3 on the other. 5 inches is as good an estimate as any.
ReplyDeleteTemperature at the house has dropped 4 degrees in the last hour to -7.6 degrees. It is dead calm outside. I love the crunch of snow when it is this cold. The calm cold stillness is so serene.
Except for the sound of my snow blower at 9 at night. Sorry neighbors.
I live about a mile from the thruway. Look north. Sheet of clouds. South crystal clear. I bet even a couple miles north is 5 degrees warmer.
Tonight actually feels like that night earlier in the season when the temperatures dropped rapidly to -9 at the airport and -14 at my house.
February has been impressive. Especially the sheer consistency of cold. I thought there was no way we could repeat last winters cold. I was wrong. December this year was mild. But since Jan 4th, winter has been locked in.
This time around it got down to -9 at the airport, -11 at my house.
DeleteThat's 6 sub 0 mornings this winter.
Last season we had 10 or 12 days. A week ago, I didn't think that we'd come close to that.
But looking at the forecast. Definitely possible.
KW states that North of the Thruway could see several inches of Lake effect Wednesday into Friday on a NW wind. He also talked about a potential system for the weekend. Scott states that Northern Monroe into Wayne county with lake effect and said a few flakes over the weekend and no mention of a storm.
ReplyDeleteLol just a minor disagreement there...
DeleteCurrently -3 in Hamlin. The snow roadside is pushed back and we are ready for more Wednesday Night into the weekend. Impressively cold January and February for sure. What is also crazy is it is the second winter straight with ZERO help from NAO, which has been positive just about straight through. The snowpack is deep but it was definitely deeper in Hamlin in March of 1999 and January of 2003. But we still have a lot of winter left with no major warm up in sight.
ReplyDeleteThe 00Z GFS is now starting to show signs of life for a weekend snowfall. It will be interesting to see how it all progresses. I am hoping for all snow, no ice or rain would be good.
ReplyDeleteCome on a little ice storm would be great. Think of those who have never experienced one before. It would be great to see ice on top of the snow with the sun shining. Yea!!!
DeleteYou know we have too much snow when the mounts of snow in you apt parking lot are higher than the car, even the SUVs. Just wish the Property Maintenance crews had dug little pathways in the mounts so you can to get to the sidewalks and apt building on the other side -- sometime it feels like you are climbing Mt. Everest just to get to the back door of the apt bldg. But oh well, we wanted the snow. Some are expecting another Winter Storm this weekend, and for the mountain to get higher. Goal is to get it to the 2nd floor window of the apt bldg. Can't imagine what this will look like when it begins to warm up -- imagine the flooding this could possibly cause. Wonder how winter/snow lovers will like that.
ReplyDeleteThe prospect of flooding is the trump card that will show us winter lovers the error of our sinful ways...
DeleteIn regards to the system this weekend. It does not look very impressive at all right now. Light snow at best.
ReplyDeleteI feel like we have been here before.
ReplyDeleteAnd then the 12z GFS comes in with something much more substantial than "light snow at best." The models couldn't get GHD nailed down until 12pm the next day, we're still 5 days out from this one. The pattern doesn't particularly argue for a warm rainer, but suppression appears even less likely with the PNA still projected to tank...snow or mix seems most likely IMO.
ReplyDeleteThanks I posted that before I saw your recent post above.
DeleteCCCC: model update for this weekend while you eat lunch? Is lake effect going to make it into southern parts of monroe/ Wayne county or be restricted to 104 and north?
ReplyDeleteOption B for the most part, although I wouldn't rule out a brief foray into southern areas.
DeleteI still think areas Nort of The Thruway could see several inches as well., not just the 104 north.. The GFS did come in with a snow event and maybe a prolonged one as well. We will see.
ReplyDelete