Gusatv, Now a Category 3

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Overnight while most of us were sleeping Gustav rapidly intensified into a major hurricane. As of the 8 a.m. public advisory from the NHC, Gustav's maximum sustain winds were 120 mph which is a strong category 3 and 11 mph away from becoming a category 4. Its central pressure has fallen to 955 mph or 28.20 in.hg.

There has been very little change in the overall forecast discussed in my previous post on another site. Later today and into Saturday night Gustav will make landfall over western Cuba and more than likely, if it continues its strengthening, be a category 4 hurricane. Once over land this is where thing could get interesting. I would expect Gustav to weaken as it transverses over the western part of Cuba and when it re-emerges it will only be over "EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO" for about the next 24 to 36 hours, then it will be over cooler waters in the Gulf of Mexico, you can this on the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map.

BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

Gustav's current size could also make it more susceptible to weakening as it i moves over Cuba, Alan Sullivan weighs in with his morning post, Good Morning, Gustav.

It is worth nothing that the storm core, though larger than it was early in this storm’s history, remains no more than medium sized, and the eye is quite small. A tightly wound cyclone is more susceptible to disruption during a land crossing. Gustav is tracking NW and will cross western Cuba on schedule.

Although there are signs and indications in the forecast that Gustav may not be as strong when it makes landfall along the Gulf Coast preparations should continue. It has always been the opinion of this meteorologist that it is better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Knowledge is your best weapon. Yes, many things can change with hurricanes and tropical storms. They can change direction and weaken at the last second but on the other side of the coin they can also rapidly intensify with out warning just before making landfall. This storm may not be as strong as forecast currently say it will be but with that in mind I wouldn't take risk if they are not needed. If I was there and wasn't working I would have begun my plans on evacuating

Sites to help you Prepare:
[American Red Cross Hurricane Gustave Online Newsroom] [Ready.gov Preparing for Hurricanes] [FEMA's Hurricane Gustav Page] [New Orleans Hurricane Center] [Emergency information for Louisiana Residence] [Houston, Texas Hurricane Central] [NHC Tracks Gustav]

Useful Weather Sites and Blogs:
Dr. Jeff Masteres Wunderground Blog | Pajamas Media “Weather Nerd” Brendan Loy | Alan Sullivan’s Fresh Bilge | Houston Chronicles SciGuy Eric Berger | National Hurricane Center | WunderGround.com Gustav | Wunderground.com Hanna |