Gustav Makes Landfall

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Gustav is weakening as it gets closer and closer to the Louisiana coast. A weakening Gustav and a path that is farther west of New Orleans means that the "Big Easy" will get spared the worst of Gustav wrath.

As of 7am EDT, Gustav was still classified as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustain winds of 115 mph, but even the NHC wasn't to confident with their wind estimates.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS NOT STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND...BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENTS...100 KT IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE WALL IS OPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLIER. IN FACT...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DID NOT REPORT AN EYEWALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DRY INTRUSION AND A RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE. ALSO THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE RAGGED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

Even Brendan Loy, the Pajamas Media "Weather Nerd weighs in on the NHC classification of Gustav.

Gustav is, in fact, weakening. The Hurricane Center’s 115 mph estimate is, as they say, “generous,” and frankly, although I’m generally reluctant to criticize the NHC, I’m not sure what purpose is served at this point by continuing to pretend Gustav is a major hurricane. This is a Category 2 hurricane, as it has been for much of the last 24 hours. Maintaining its Cat. 3 status yesterday made some sense, as the possibility of restrengthening remained, and one didn’t want to sound a premature “all clear.” But now, calling Gustav a Cat. 3, when it’s really a Cat. 2 and isn’t going to get any stronger, simply risks creating more public cynicism, it seems to me. It’s not as if people will fail to notice when Gustav doesn’t cause major-hurricane-level damage or wind gusts.

Although Gustav is no Katrina and should not impact the city the same way, other parts of Louisiana will be experiencing category 2 force winds and that will make for a long day for those who are in the path of this storm. Gustav will still bring significant storm-surge flooding to the Houma area and surrounding areas along the east-central Louisiana coast. Also Gustav will dump 6 to 12 inches to parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Texas. I will have more towards midday.