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Tuesday, September 2

Gustav Was Just the Beginning...

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Some of you may have heard the song, "I Love a Parade" composed by Western New York native Harold Arlen, but I don't think this is what he had in mind when he wrote it. As you can see from the graphic we are going to experience a "Parade" of storms over the next several days. One could say it started with Fay, then followed by Gustav, which made landfall Labor Day in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane, but those two storms were just the beginning.

We are now watching Hanna which, which became a hurricane last week, then a hurricane for a brief period Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, before returning to tropical storm strength Tuesday morning. It is still forecasted to become a hurricane and possibly impact the southeastern United States by the end of the week. Then impact our weather here in Western New York by Saturday and Sunday. Hanna is experiencing a lot of developmental obstacles Tuesday and that could completely change the current forecast. We will continue to monitor Hanna.

Monday afternoon the 9th named storm of the 2008 Atlantic Tropical season formed named Ike. Ike is expected to gradually strengthen into a hurricane by midweek and doesn't appear to be a problem for the United States until early next week if at all.

11a.m. Update: Figures as soon as I finish this post TD #10 becomes Josephine, the tenth names storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season... It appears that Josephine could be a Hurricane very soon per the NHC discussion:

JOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN AT LEAST THAT WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE CYCLONE...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND COULD BE RAPID GIVEN THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND THAT THE SHIPS-BASED RI INDEX GIVES A 50% CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

If that was not enough, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) identified a tropical wave off of Africa as tropical depression # 10 and if it is named it would be Josephine.

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