It's Lake Effect season again!

Written by: Bob Metcalfe

As Brian wrote in the last post, you're starting to hear the words "lake effect" being mentioned in the forecast again. Rest assured, in the near term we will NOT be receiving snow that would allow for a picture like the one to the left, I just liked the picture!

Anyways, lets go through a quick primer for those of you that either forgot or just don't know how/why lake effect does what it does.

There are a few key ingredients for lake effect rain or snow to form. First and foremost you need a strong temperature difference between the lake water and air about a mile above the surface. Remember that right now the water is still relatively warm compared to the air, especially when we get big cool downs that come through. Secondly, for our area we need a decent northwest wind. This allows for the air to gather up moisture as it crosses the lake. A north wind wouldn't work because the lake is more narrow from the north to south borders, so it doesn't have enough time to "grab" the necessary moisture. Typically you also need that wind to be corresponding to a low pressure system, as this allows for more upward motion in the atmosphere, favorable for rain or snow development.

This week, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday, it looks favorable for lake effect rain showers to turn to wet snow. The favorable spots will be east of Rochester, specifically Wayne county and points eastward towards Oswego.