DASHING THROUGH THE RAIN...
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
So Christmas Eve is dry, no bones about it. If you have travel plans anywhere in our state or within a state of here that day, bring sunglasses, because that's about the most treacherous "weather" you'll see.
Christmas really isn't looking bad either. The image included shows us on the border between the red "ice" and the green "rain". Now that is a very generalized map, so 50 miles on there makes all the difference.
One of the cool tools we LOVE to use during potential icy precipitation events is a forecast tool called "BUFKIT". It is completely free for download from the NWS Buffalo office, right where it was developed. This guy gives us hourly vertical temperature profiles of the atmosphere from all of the different models (NAM, GFS, RUC, etc.) Embedded within the program is a tool that can be used to guide you toward what type of precipitation is likely (rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, etc). The 12Z NAM is really leaning towards a completely rain event for us on Christmas afternoon, with a start time of about 2PM. The GFS is holding on to about 2 hours of possible icy precip from 2-4pm with rain thereafter, but I'd be willing to bet that goes away by the next data run.
At this point, as long as you're traveling before noon and after dinner, travel won't be an issue. We're a hair away from the freezing point at the onset of the rain here at the surface, and the atmospheric column is mostly above 32 degrees, which leads me towards the idea that rain is all we'll see.
Just dont drink too much egg nog and drive. That's how grandma got ran over by a reindeer.
Bah, Humbug, about the Rain!!!
ReplyDeleteGotta love it. We are spectators to another blizzard only this time it is West of us. I wonder where the next storm will go. Probably South and East. We will just get boring lake effect flurries. Same old story!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGood, can you bump the temp up to about 60, that'd be nice.
ReplyDeleteI wish Spring were here. This winter is going to stink here in ROC. I bet Washington DC ends up with more snow then ROC when it's all said and done.
ReplyDeleteA little note from the person who warned of the surprise Lake Erie snow a couple weeks ago: You will need to lower your temperatures significantly from what you currently have for early / mid next week. We'll be lucky if we break 20 degrees.
ReplyDeleteA little note from your meteorologists:
ReplyDeleteWe see that cold out there. But same goes with the placement of the storms via the GFS as with the cold. It can often over-exaggerate it. We also believe in continuity in the forecast so rather than swinging the temperature on the 6-7th day out by 10 degrees between two shifts, we'd rather ease it down. Either way, the cold is noted.