NEAR WHITEOUTS POSSIBLE SOUTH TOMORROW
Written By: Scott Hetsko
As we have been talking about recently, single band lake snows will hit the traditional snowbelts over the next 48 hours. Some towns will likely see 1-2 feet of snow in the hills Southwest as well as the Tug Hill to the East. Winds sustained over 20 and gusting over 40 mph Thursday will combine with snow to cause near whiteout conditions South of Routes 5 and 20. If you are traveling South of Geneseo tomorrow please know that the roads will be slick with visibility near zero at times.
Rochester will get a brief burst of snow as winds shift to the West later tonight which may cause a brief 1-2" accumulation. Very cold air through Friday with wind chills in the single digits at times.
We received our whopping 1 inch of snow last night which is now gone. As usual, Rochester will not get into the Lake effect except for a whimpy inch or two. Yipeeeee!!!!!Forget about the storm next week. The GFS has taken it completely out of the picture. There is a shocker.
ReplyDeleteI posted yesterday, telling you that this lake effect event was being underestimated...and look what was just posted - A Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Monroe, Ontario and Livingston Counties...The same exact areas that I said to watch out for. I explained the unique conditions that could give us a surprise, and I still think it holds true. In my opinion, Scott, you still seem to be underestimating the effects of that lake Erie band for the Rochester Metro area.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the very Western portions of Monroe County make get a few inches, but I agree with Scott. Most of us in MOnroe County will not see much of anything. I am sure that Advisory will be dropped.
ReplyDeleteBoundary layer winds will be more than strong enough, not to mention other factors, which I oultlined in a previous post, that don't happen very often. This is not a garden variety storm system, and we should not expect the band to "behave" exactly the way the models are forecasting. Not tihs time around. But time will tell, of course.
ReplyDeleteI hope you are right, I really do. I just want a regular old fashion snowstorm around here. Yesterday looked hopeful for a Tuesay-Wednesday storm and now the models took it out.
ReplyDeleteThe guy at the weather service who issued that advisory for tonight ALWAYS overestimates snowfall around here. Believe me, Rochester in my view won't get more than 3" of snow. I do agree with the possibility of up to 4 or 5" in far Western parts of the county.
ReplyDeleteHis last name is "Hitchcock" and likes to be scary....
Also just so the poster knows, I have been saying that more snow will fall in Livingston, Ontario, Wyoming counties. We'll know by tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThe snow last night was nice while we had it...for a few hours. Now gone except a few measly snow piles. Wow, winter really arrived in ROC.
ReplyDeleteScott, you're the prof meteorologist, so I can't argue with you really, but other forecasters here in ROC besides the NWS snow bias guy are calling for more than 3 inches for areas near the Thruway South, which includes Southern Monroe County, where I live in West Henrietta.
We'll see how it goes. The forecast that more snow will fall in Counties south of us is not a hard forecast to make and you have pretty much 100% consensus on that by every forecaster, including the Hitchcock guy. If you're right, kudos to you.
And oh boy! ROC is now up to 3.6 inches! Ooooh! We're rocking...(NOT!) Next week's fantasy storm? LOL...I laughed at that yesterday.
If we don't get a good snowfall here by the end of Dec, I predict that this will be THE LEAST SNOWIEST winter in Rochester's weather history as the screw zone for every storm and every snow event wlll be right over us.
Looking at how this band is developing, I still see Rochester getting 1-3" so in my opinion, the lake snow advisory wasn't needed.
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