YET ANOTHER STORM MISSES!
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
I'm not going to take sides, I'm just going to report the facts here. Right now, skiers are shrieking. Cold-haters are rejoicing. Winter still hasn't decided to arrive. And guess what? It avoids us AGAIN this weekend.
A storm that is now winding up down in the deep southeast takes a little trek out past the Carolinas this weekend. It'll be sloppy down there, with rain/mix/snow for several areas down there. As you can see though, that track is NOT at all conducive to a measurable snowfall here in western NY. We may see flurries skim the wine country overnight Saturday into Sunday, but folks, that's about it.
So as of now, we are about half a foot off of our normal "to-date" snowfall for the winter, temperatures are near or slightly above average, and a good dose of snow is nowhere to be found!
That might change mid-late next week, Bob. I wouldn't be surprised to see more snow out of the coming mid week storm than is predicted at the moment. Friday night's GFS 18z solution is looking more frozen than liquid compared to previous runs. We'll just have to see if it keeps it up in future runs or if it does it's classic flip flop.
ReplyDeleteThis post was outside of next week's storm. During this "transitional" time of the year, you can't get too worked up about a 5 day GFS forecast. Also, the intermediate runs (6z/18z) can often have very poor results.
ReplyDeleteWe'll stay tuned for sure!
It is looking much better for a snow event this week. The models want to develop a coastal low with the initial low passing to our West. This will transfer energy, but also may keep the warm air from intruding into our area thus keeping us all snow. Lake effect on a NW wind after that???
ReplyDeleteWe will see.
And looking at NOAA's forecast discussion, it certainly looks like a significant snow event cannot be ruled out. Combined with potentially high winds, and increasing cold, we may get our first real taste of winter weather, possibly even severe winter weather around here.
ReplyDelete