IT'S GOT EL NINO WRITTEN ALL OVER IT!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
You only need to check out the latest satellite image from the Central Pacific Ocean to know what type of pattern has set up in recent weeks. El Nino has become the dominating driving force which has result in a parade of storms that are set to crash into the West coast of the United States the next 7-10 days. Flooding rain and very heavy mountain snows will fall from Southern California North into Washington.
These storms usually weaken over the rockies then some gain strength as the cross the mid west and tap into the Gulf of Mexico. We expect our weather to become a little more active with storms next week potentially. I still expect the NAO and AO to go back to negative in the last few days of January. This should result in another two week period of cold and snow here in February.
Scott, what happened to the AO, NOA and PNA indices today? They were trending beautifully the last couple days, but suddenly had a change of heart today. Now the AO spikes and only recovers to neutral, while the NOA also goes positive to near neutral right through Feb. 1st. The PNA also trends negative. Could this be a glitch?
ReplyDeleteScott what is your evidence for a cold two week period setting up?
ReplyDeleteThe two week forecast for NAO has it trending into negative territory. This usually corresponds to a blocking high in Greenland which would favor a persistent Northeast trough. It's forecast to be BARELY negative so how cold is tough to know now. El Nino is a little stronger now so it remains to be seen how the rest of Winter behaves.
ReplyDeletei thought el nino has been trending weaker?
ReplyDeletescott what temp does it have to be at 850 mb to be cold enough to snow? I thought it was zero c, but then I was told it had to do with sun angle and it changes depending on time of year.
ReplyDeleteEl Nino models differ on it 's peak but it's near it now. It is forecast to weaken in Spring or early Summer.
ReplyDelete850 temps for lake effect? Typically we look for a 13 degree (C) difference between the lake temperature and 850 air as a first step in the lake snow process. ALOT of other parameters must be met as well.
I was looking at the latest SST anomalies in the pacific, and I compared it to the last several updates dating back to late December. When you look at the comparisons, it is very clear just by eyeballing it that el nino has weakened quite noticably, especially in the eastern regions. So why does everybody keep saying that we are at peak right now, when it clearly looks like it peaked weeks ago, and has been weakening in each update since?
ReplyDeleteI noticed the trend as well somewhat but it remains strong at +3C in the center of that animation. Perhaps it's lost a little further East but not too much. It remains +1-3 C throughout the central Equatorial Pacific.
ReplyDeleteWhat's interesting about the recent trends in el nino is that the CPC still expects it to remain near its "peak" strength right through February. For one thing, it's already declined from its peak strength. And for another thing, if it continues its decline as it has recently, I don't see how it's going to remain where it is for next six weeks (which would be right through Feb as indicated). Sorry about the rant, I just think what the CPC is saying right now contradicts reality.
ReplyDeleteOh wow scott might be right on the two week cold coming. i just read that a SUPER stratospheric warming event is about to happen and this is supposed to be a reliable sign of major cold coming soon. scott whats the stratosphere got to do with cold?
ReplyDelete