THIS STORM WON'T SNOW ON YOU!
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Although this storm took a similar path of last weeks big snowfall, this one will remain too far South to create problems this week. Our snowpack is already melting with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 30s the past few days. I expect most of the snow to be gone by early next week. We are expecting milder days this weekend with temperatures near or over 40 degrees.
Next week looks interesting as low pressure will likely track toward central Pennsylvania mid week. That storm may stall or slow near the Jersey coast which would bring an extended period of wintry mix over to all snow for Western New York. More on that system later this week. I know you'll probably want to speculate but it's really fruitless. At this point there is no way to talk specifics.
Well that sounds interesting :) I cant wait for updates!!
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI would just like to compliment you on your accuracy with this last storm. Given the extreme complexities and rarety of this particular storm, your track and projected snowfall was amazingly close, even days in advance. But what amazes me the most by your accuracy with this storm is the fact that most other mets, including the National Weather Service in Buffalo, completely busted with respect to the westerly extent of the significant snowfall. Remember Thursday evening, when the NWS provided the detailed timeline of when the heavy snow would retrograde, beginning in the north country, then the Genesee Valley, and then the Niagara Frontier? And this was at like 10:00 that evening, when they projected the same general accumulations for Rochester as Buffalo. Then you came on at 11:00 that night and explained how the snow would tend to fizzle out just west of Rochester. And guess what, it did exactly as you said. How the heck did you know that when even the National Weather Service didn't catch it????? I'm amazed, Scott. I've always respected you as one of the best meteorologists in Western New York, but you gained a huge amount of additional respect after your handling of this storm. I don't know if it's from graduating from one of the finest Universities for meteorologist in the entire country (Penn State) or what, but you're one of the greatest meteorologists to come to Rochester ever. Keep up the great work, Scott
I second that. Channel 8 is the only station I watch because I trust their forecast the most. No hype, and no awkward morning or weekend mets, like other channels have. All three of you present yourself as confident and seasoned. Can't say the same for other channels...
ReplyDeletehi Scott. So this is WAY WAY out there into the future, but Joe Bastardi says that there are strong signs that NEXT year will be similar to the winter of 1995-96. Cold PDO, neutral to weak la nina conditions, another year of blocking at the pole. But this time, no powerful southern jet to keep the storms away from us. So lookout next winter. Gonna be fun! And anyone who knows about historical winters knows that 1995-96 was one mighty snowy winter around these parts
ReplyDeleteI very much appreciate your compliments. I would rather be known for accuracy more than anything else. Like snowflakes, every winter storm is unique!
ReplyDeleteNot gonna even bother speculating yet, but I sure am intrigued by next week. 10.2 more inches and we hit 100" for the season. I don't see any reason why we can't do it.
ReplyDeleteI am sorry all you snow lovers, but I believe our big snow events are done for the season.
ReplyDeleteI do not understand how channel 8 can give hints to another storm next week, when all the models are suggesting a nice ridge of high pressure parked over us, and giving us sunny days with temps in the 40's.
We all can't be right all the time, now can we.
Above Anonymous posted: "I am sorry all you snow lovers, but I believe our big snow events are done for the season"
ReplyDeleteMy question beside your gut feeling what do you have to back that up. People at the start of February were claiming the same thing and then we got last weeks storm. I don't mind claims but I appreciate data and information that back that up.
Then they asked, "I do not understand how channel 8 can give hints to another storm next week, when all the models are suggesting a nice ridge of high pressure parked over us."
Not sure what models you've left out but not all the models show a ridge on top of us all week. Most of the models agree that a storm will move out of the central Plains and head east by the middle of next week. Once they get to Tuesday and Wednesday then they all handle the storm differently. When Scott wrote this post he had the 12z & 18z GFS showing a storm coming across the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania. Now the last 2 runs of the GFS (0z & 6z) have shown the storm to wash out some or they slow it down back into the Plains.
Of course Scott ends the blog with "I know you'll probably want to speculate but it's really fruitless. At this point there is no way to talk specifics." Reason he said this, and I agree, it's too early and so much can happen in a week.
Thank you for your comment it adds a lot to the discussion.
Channel 8 isn't the only channel giving hints about something later next week...
ReplyDeleteWell put, Brian. I'm sure the poster who sent that comment thought we were done in Feb. But 30" for the month! Hmmm. And As I said, i've heard several different channels in not only Rochester, but also Buffalo make hints at something brewing next week. Things can change, of course...weather is sneaky like that, but part of the purpose of this blog is to give us some insignt into what the experts are seeing....things that they might not put on the air until things get closer. So we get a sneak peak, if you will. That's something to be appreciated! But ohwell, every blog has its cynical and negative folks that like to stir up things without any expertise or data to back up what they say. Anyway, keep up the good work Brian, Scott and Bob.....And by the way Brian, my wife thinks you're adorable lol. I'm jeleous. lol
ReplyDeleteA MAJOR ridge looks to build across the wests within the next couple weeks, with the PNA going VERY positive. What does that mean? a trough cutting in the east with lots of unstable weather riding up the east coast. Don't count out March, yet. We'll be over 100" by the end of March!
ReplyDeleteYou are right Scott, I do want to speculate.
ReplyDeleteSure, something might happen toward the middle of next week, but I believe it will be a rain event.
How's the flooding forecast look so far this Spring?
By the way you guys are doing a great job!