BYE BYE EL NINO
Written by: Bob Metcalfe
I want to draw your eyes to the equatorial areas directly west of South America, in the southern Pacific Ocean. Notice the very small area of slightly above normal sea-surface temperature anomalies? (sst) This is one of the last images you'll see on the warm side in this area for the remainder of the year, as this episode of El Nino draws to a close. I wish I could figure out how to include GIF animations in these posts to show you the cold water coming to the surface in the Nino regions of the Pacific.
As stated in previous posts, a dying El Nino can have a big impact on the hurricane season, as well as our overall weather patterns here across the US. There's a consensus for the most part that we'll be heading into a La Nina pattern by the end of the summer, the question remains how strong will it get. This will mean a warm start to the summer (June/July) and likely little "big heat" remaining at the end of the summer.
Bob-
ReplyDeleteso do you think june and july are going to be wet and stormy?
I asked this question a month or so back, and never got an answer. So i'll ask it again, and if you want to wait till closer to fall to answer it with the winter outlook, i'll understand. My question is: climatologically, what does a moderate La nina bring to the Northeast in the winter months??
ReplyDeleteOur consensus summer forecast is for a warm June and July with average rain. We think that the end of the summer will end up being the "wetter" half. We'll see a handful of 90+ degree days, but we won't look back at this summer and go "Boy, was it hot..."
ReplyDeleteBob-
ReplyDeleteso with hotter days will there be a better chance of severe weather this summer?