TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE HORIZON?

Written by: Brian Neudorff

Over the weekend and early this week there has been a tropical wave getting some attention from the National Hurricane Center and other weather forecasting outlets. I'll be honest I was out of town for the weekend and really didn't pay much attention to this disturbance.

Although it has been over some favorable waters in the Atlantic there are a lot of things working against this storm. It is still 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and it will soon be moving into stronger wind shear. Even the National Hurricane center has downgraded the likelihood of development from 60% to 30% this morning here is their discussion:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME LIMITED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Another factor working against this wave is climatology. Only one storm form has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June-- Tropical Storm Ana in 1979.