SOON TO BE NICOLE IMPACT OUR WEATHER

Written by: Brian Neudorff

This morning tropical depression 16 formed in the Caribbean late this morning. This cyclone is very close to being a tropical storm and when it is upgraded it will be named Nicole.

This system will cross Cuba, the Florida Keys and southeastern Florida over the next 36 hours. This system once it gets back over the Atlantic will probably remain just a tropical storm but I caution, although the official forecast keeps it at that strength the National Hurricane Center has had a very difficult time with intensity this season.



The above image is one models print out for Thursday afternoon. (It is the GFS Model out 54 hrs) I think it is too fast especially when you compare it to the 8am forecast from the National Hurricane Center.



The next image is from the NAM model out 54 hours. This has the center of this system farther south and closer to where proto-Nicole will be based off of the NHC forecast.

As I told a commenter on a previous post, until this system gets better organized and more data is ingested into the models they will have a difficult time on location and intensity of this system by the time it would be a threat to the east coast and our region.