OPEN DISCUSSION ON UPCOMING BLAST OF COLD & SNOW
Written by Brian Neudorff:
After 48 comments from yesterday's post I figured I would just make this an open discussion for all of you to share your thoughts and ask your question on the up coming blast of cold and potential lake effect snow Sunday into the middle of next week. With a good cyclonic flow from a stalled upper level system, moisture from both the lakes and coming in from the Atlantic and cold air coming in from the north-northwest over the lakes we will get our first real taste of winter.
Is this going to be the event that south Buffalo saw this week? No, but still with holiday shopping and planning and not having much snow in November it is important to let people know what is going on and that the potential is there for locations south of Lake Ontario to see some significant Lake Effect Snow.
My view on this is that northeastern Monroe county over to Cayuga county will get 12-16 inches of snow over the 4 day period
ReplyDeleteChannel 13 is predicting the same as everyone in fact they said would not be surpirsed to see a general snowfall of several incehs by Sunday night. Charles what do you the city will get in that 4 day period?
ReplyDeleteI think that the city will get 8-12 inches north of I90 and areas south of I90 will get 3-5 inches
ReplyDeleteAlso the 16 inch total that I mentioned above is going to be an isolated areas in the heaviest hit ares it will generally be 12-14 inches or less
ReplyDeleteChannel 10 is saying heavy stuff wayne and east on thruway they could get hard. Syracuse could get hit big according to them.
ReplyDeleteDo you expect watches and warnings to be posted tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteI asked a question in the last post, so I thought I would carry it over to here....We live in Hilton, and the big snows seem to miss us even though we are very close to the lake. Are we too close? Too far west for lake effect? Do you think we will get any snow this coming week, or will we be passed over again while eastern Monroe gets all the fun? :)
ReplyDeleteYou've hinted previously about what's in store for Christmas? What's the long range look at Christmas snow and cold temps to freeze the backyard rink?
ReplyDeletePicked up about a half inch of snow from two seperate waves that crossed straight down from lake Ontario. I live just Southeast of Irondequoit Bay.
ReplyDeleteLet the nickle and dime snow we always get begin.
ReplyDelete12 inches over a 4 day period is nothing. Buffalo will laugh at that. Got a ehopping trace of snow tonight in Western Wayne county. Whoopdi Doo.
FORECAST FROM CHANNEL 8. THEY HAVE THE HEAVY SNOW EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF ROCHESTER.
ReplyDeleteCloudy, windy and cold with periods of lake snow, heavy in areas especially east and southeast of Rochester. High 30.
To the poster from Hilton: You are too far west for maximum lake effect. A northwest wind will deliver a 75-100 long mile band of lake effect (under ideal conditions) that will come ashore somewhere between Irondequoit and Sodus. You are more likely to get "reverse" lake effect when a NE wind blows, along with the nearby county of Orleans.
ReplyDeleteOn a side note, I left the village of Sodus Point tonight to go to Webster. Not a flake in the air at my house, but before I left the village limits (less than one mile), it was snowing hard. Almost whiteout conditions in Sodus along 104. Lake effect - very localized!
I am not so sure this is just a nickle and dime show as a previous post said. There appears to be a great deal of moisture associated with this retrograding low. I believe right in the city that at times snow will moderate to heavy Sunday night and Monday. Plus winds are going to be kicking pretty hard. I am sure the most accurate team in Rochester will update as it gets closer.
ReplyDeleteEven if we "only" get 12 inches of snow in the 4 days... it will still be nice to have the ground covered with snow for good... at least for a good while.
ReplyDeleteFriday night update:
ReplyDeleteProlonged period of lake effect snow, wind and cold ahead beginning in earnest Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. A one-two combination of retrograding lows over Eastern Ontario will feed a cold and just as important, highly humid flow of air across the Great Lakes through the period. The humidity is important because the abundant latent heat release will be used for dendritic snow development rather than priming the boundary layer. You always get more snow when the atmosphere doesn't have to work as hard.
The result will be several days of snow and blowing snow from Lockport to Syracuse. 12-20" snow is possible in the most persistent snow bands over the ENTIRE event. Rochester metro may fall into this category but at least 6-10" looks plausable for many near the city. Models can't forecast this, history can. Cyclonic flow, decent inversion heights and N-NW wind usually results in what we're forecasting.
Enough snow to enjoy but over a period of time to stay in front of! Keep the conversation going. Hilton, you too will get decent snow this time around as the flow may allow from Georgian Bay help for you. We'll see...
Sounds like you and your weather team are going to have one busy weekend and following week ahead of you, Scott. Thank you for the update. I'm very encouraged by the prospects of some real snow around here. It's been awhile.
ReplyDeleteThanks again, and thanks for putting up with us crazy weather fanatics on this weather blog!
Have a great weekend everybody.
I will not belive it until I see it. Lake effect is so unpredicatable for Rochester. Eastern Monroe county could get dumped on while western monroe does not. I guess I am waiting for the BIG ONE that we have not seen in years. I am talking about a true synoptic snowstorm, not lake effect.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you guys see on the latest model runs? Does it still appear that the metro will get a good snowfall?
ReplyDeleteSNOW WAY! This is going to be a fun week. I hope we have a white Christmas as well. Driving into work this morning, I drove thru that band over Avon. That was some pretty heavy stuff. The kids love it. I know this is a weather blog but I cant seem to find any help elsewhere so I will throw it out here. If anyone on here has a Western Unimount PLow, I need some help figuring out why mine won't angle right. Please email me at bigklien@yahoo.com Enjoy the snow as I will do the same.
ReplyDeleteAll bets say that the NWS will not even put up advisory's for Monroe and Wayne county.
ReplyDeleteStill expecting snow showers and cold. NWS notorious for underforecasting events along lake Ontario in my experience.
ReplyDeleteNow it is just snow showers?
ReplyDeleteOops! We are still expecting periods of lake snow. Nothings changed
ReplyDeleteIs it just me, or do these last couple of computer runs show the low a little further west?
ReplyDeleteI still do not understand why NWS has snow all day tomorrow yet only says 1-2 inches of snow accumulation... even at .25 inches an hour snow rates if it snowed for half the day (12 hours) that would be 3 inches of snow.
ReplyDeleteNo one wants to put a number on it yet...
ReplyDeleteDon't get me started on the NWS. I thought I was the only one that noticed how they frequently neglect to hoist Advisories or Watches/Warnings for our area...even when it's obvious that significant accumulating snow is ongoing out here. They did it last year when most of the area picked up over 6" and not a single headline was issued.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Have any of the mets noticed how when the slightest wintry weather happens in Erie county and Niagara Frontier they jump right on the short term forecasts...but it could be snowing with slippery roads in Rochester and not a single short term forecast, not a single Special Weather Statement.
I realized that most, if not all, of the NWS staff live and work in Buffalo, but c'mon.
And as bad as we get neglected by the NWS, I think that Orleans county gets ignored the most. After all these winters where Orleans county gets a hefty dose of lake effect on a Georgian Bay connection, they still can't seem to bring themselves to ever issue Advisories for that area in advance. They always go to their "default" headlines for Wayne county and points east. I just don't get it.
ReplyDeleteI think the low is projected more west than originally thought. The issue that I feel should be watched is the wind. Would not be surprised to see gusts 30-40mph on Monday and Tuesday. Even with light to moderate snow falling that could cause some problems. It is difficult to call snow amounts because it is lack effect however the winds will be pretty strong I believe. Also I believe there will be a good lake enhancement of the synoptic snow from the low. Time will tell hope all keep posting if they have information.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't agree more with previous posters! Advisories should have been posted the other day and Orleans Cty ALWAYS gets neglected. Yes still not comfy with exact numbers, hard to tell until the engine gets started.
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen one issued in a couple years, but I think there's a headline called "Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory." Last time I saw one of those issued was several years ago. I don't know how much snow or how strong the winds have to be to meet that criteria, but it makes me wonder if one of those might be issued eventually.
ReplyDeleteScott when do you think you will put some numbers for the amounts in the metro area? Understanding this one is tricky but you always get the most accurate amounts. Will the city east get at least 6 inches by Monday morning?
ReplyDeleteLake Effect Snow WATCH issued for all along lake Erie from Cleveland to Erie. And now even parts of interior PA just got issued a Watch (Warren and Mckean cos). They're projecting 10-20 inches from the entire event. I gotta believe the NWS will follow soon.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteIt the low retrogrades farther west does that help or hurt Rochester in regards to snow accumulation?
OK. So they NWS out of BUffalo has a Lake Effect snow watch for all along Lake Erie, but not for the counties bordering Lake Ontario. Do they have their heads up their butt. They isued a hazardous weather outlook for snow showers and say the snow will not be heavy, but have said the snow could be very heavy along lake Erie. What is the difference. Same wind, Same fetch. We may even get a lake Huron conncetion. Let us all e-mail them and see why the neglect us all the time. All channel 13 has is light snow and flurries for us from Sunday to Wednesday.
ReplyDeletewell finally the NWS issued a Lake Effect watch... oh wait not for us but for snow off of lake erie which I thought would be less since it is further from the low pressure... but I guess what do I know... even though we will likely see 4-8 inch totals each day that should not even get us an advisory since NWS does not issue anything for us till we get 12-16 inches and that is only for advisories and then 16-24 inches would be marginal warning criteria and only over 24 inches would they actually start talking about a good snowfall for us
ReplyDeleteoh I did not see your post before I posted
ReplyDeleteWe were thinking the same thing. Cool
ReplyDeleteNWS has reduced our chances of snow to 20% ... have they looked outside it has been snowing in ontario all day... I mean yes it has been on and off and also light but it is still snowing
ReplyDeleteI just e-mailed all of the, including Tom Niziol at the NWS. I will post their response if they respond. Channel 13 is really downplaying this with just occasional ligh snow. Could they be right?
ReplyDeleteI just received a response from channel 10. They also state that the NWS puzzles them.
ReplyDeleteI guess it really does not matter if they issue anything we will get the same amount of snow reguardless
ReplyDeleteA pretty good single band of lake effect has set up across Batavia... looks like it is strengthening.
ReplyDeleteSnow is getting a little more intesnse downtown..
ReplyDeletesnow has began to cover the roads here
ReplyDeleteBrighton it is snowing a little but i check the radar and it does not show snow can someone explain why?
ReplyDeleteLake effect snow is shallow in reference to the atmosphere.
ReplyDeleteAs the radar beam extends from Buffalo National Weather Service it goes higher in elevation. In Brighton, NY the radar beam elevation is around 4000-5000 ft. however the height of the clouds that is assossiated with lake effect snow only extend to 3-4k with light lake effect snow. This causes the radar to not "see" the clouds that the lake effect snow is falling from. Later this week when we get heavier lake effect snow you will see that the clouds extend further up into the atmosphere and so the radar will "see" the snow
Just a dusting of snow in perinton
ReplyDeleteWachal,
ReplyDeleteI live in Ontario as well..as much you think we will get man.. and when does the bulk of the synoptic (lake enhanced) comes in tom?
oh OK thanks for explaining that and Charles how much are you forecasting for Brighton, NY
ReplyDeletebtw I now have a personal blog that has to do with the weather conditions around Rochester... you can find it by clicking my name
ReplyDeleteAre there going to be any posts from Channel 8 about what they think?
ReplyDeleteBrighton I would say would get 8-12 inches over the 4 day period from tonight to Wednesday/Thursday
ReplyDeleteit would be nice to have them come on here with a forecasted map soon... I am a meteorology student at Mississippi State university online right now but they are much better at forecasting
ReplyDeleteNew post by news 8
ReplyDeleteHey all, sorry for the delay. Just wanted to get all the ducks in a row so that the forecast was relevant late tonight. Map is above. Sorry that there isn't storm totals, but right now that'd be foolish to try to predict.
ReplyDelete