BITTER COLD START TO THE WEEK
Written by: Brian Neudorff
It was COLD this morning. The second straight Monday we've had temperatures sub zero. Right before midnight the temperatures dropped to -8 and then this morning temperatures was -6. Then you had a wind chill ranging from -10 to -20 which actually caused a few schools, especially those who have a lot of students who walk to school.
Of course we were not alone with the cold. From northern New York to western and northern Maine, temperatures dropped off to 20-35 degrees below zero. Six degrees in NYC and it also dropped below zero in Boston, but felt like over 30 below.
Warm air advection will help boost temperatures later tonight into Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will warm from the mid teens to the mid 20s. Highs both on Tuesday and Wednesday look to be near or even above the freezing mark.
As far as the next storm, agreed we will not get anything from that system. It is too far south and the system then stays too far east. Then colder air by Thursday into Friday will return with highs again back into the 2os.
Thanks Brian. It is getting so frustrating this year and last missing every single storm. I am so ready for spring. Cold without snow really sucks.
ReplyDeleteI could not agree more with you!
ReplyDeleteYes! I am glad we are all in agreement now. Bring on Spring!
ReplyDeleteSnow just plain sucks.
ReplyDeleteWhat is expected tonight? a dusting. I do not need any snow this week as I am driving a rental. sally
ReplyDeleteNothing important tonight: T-2" at most.
ReplyDeleteScott
This T-2 is getting so annoying. Scott, do you see any warming trend in February at all. As long as we do not get storms it might as well be warm.
ReplyDeleteThe first week or so of February look Very cold based on the ensemble forecasts.
ReplyDeleteScott,
What are your thoughts on the potential fri/sat system this week? The models have shifted the track a bit closer to WNY (previously, they had most of its energy to our north). Does this system have some potential for a decent accumulation worth watching?
Grrrr! I have been reading my old NashvilleWX blog this afternoon and it has depressed me terribly. Nashville south could be in the run for 5 plus of synoptic snow off of the one that will miss us this week. I know that I am kicking a dead horse but I know that we used to get a hell of a lot more snow in Upstate New York several years ago! I hope my boys in Tennessee enjoy their snow while we have igloo weather and a trace to an inch! Frustrating as all get out. So has there been that much of a change in pattern over the years? What causes this? I don't want the blog to fade because of no snow to talk about....
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteThe official climate stats for Nashville, TN are as follows:
Total snowfall for the entire season so far: 9.3"
Snowfall for the month of January so far: 4.8"
If Nashville has gotten a lot of synoptic snowfalls this winter, then each one of them must be extremly nickel and dime type stuff. 9.3" for one single event in Rochester would be just modest...much less the entire season so far, as is the case for Nashville. Heck, some places around WNY have 9.3" just on the ground at the moment! It's all relative.
And by the way, these stats above are legit. I got them off Nashville's official National Weather Service website, which has up to date climate statistics for the city.
ReplyDeleteClick on climate, which is halfway down the page, then click "go"
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/
Wow, 9.3" for the season so far and they have already had a bunch of snow events in Nashville??? THAT'S depressing, NOT Rochester's 74" of snow so far. I'll take Rochester, thank you very much.
ReplyDeleteDK, as your probably aware, that weekend storm probably won't have a ton of moisture with it as it can't tap into any major warm, moist sources. But the way the models are leaning now, 2-4" or 3-6" could be possible without lake enhancement. But ontario will obviously contribute, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get 5-9" north of I-90 before the weekend is done! I'm no expert though, im sure the news 8 team will have their say on this later in the week.
ReplyDeleteAnd for the record, this storm tuesday/wednesday is looking less and less impressive each run, so were not missing out on the "Superstorm of 2011" just yet. Hope that helps soothe the pain for some!
ReplyDeleteWeatherguy, your numbers are pretty close to what I would guesstimate based on the models. It's not a lot, but as long as it keeps adding on to our snowpack before it has a chance to compact or melt down much i'm happy. Most places around the metro have about 6-7 inches on the ground, with about 2 or 3 around the middle Genesee Valley.
ReplyDeleteIm supposed to leave thursday on a snowmobile trip to Old Forge, I operate a snow plow business and if theres a chance we're going to get 3"+, before sunday, Im going to have to cancel.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the chances?
Quick question for all you bloggers that have know quite a bit about interpreting and forecasting. What websites do you look at to help you predict the weather? I am facinated with the weather predictions but I am just a novice who loves to read these blogs!! Keep up the blogging!
ReplyDeleteMichele in Penfield
A few of my faves:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ems.psu.edu/~nese/phillywx.htm
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Scott
5-9" saturday-sunday. seems little high...
ReplyDeleteFor Nashville, that is a lot of snow. The 11 years I spent there, we had one storm that dropped a foot and it closed the city. It is rare for TN to get snow. I am well aware of the numbers for Nashville by the way. I just thought it was depressing that they are about to get a good snow, and we are not. I don't recall saying they get more snow than WNY...Yup, just read my previous post and I didn't say that :) but what the hell, at least there are more posts on here. I am looking forward to my return to Music city in the spring.
ReplyDeleteDavid, thats including lake effect. There will easily be at least a brief window of opportunity for lake snow if the low stays on its current track, especially since it has an ample supply of cold air to tap into once it crosses our area. Again, im by no means a meteorologist, but thats just me putting my two cents in on the subject. It wouldn't surprise me if the NWS put out some headlines by the end of the week. But then again, after this past weekend, I don't know how many people trust them now after there botched forecast with the LES!
ReplyDeleteI will finally be back to work in Roc after a 6 week leave for knee surgery so I will be enjoying the snow Saturday if we get it!! I never thought I would miss work but the cabin fever is killing me!!
ReplyDeleteOut of hibernation same old wishing for the blog but same old results no storms! Back to hibernation with no storms for another two months. Bring on Spring!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the websites Scott!
ReplyDeleteThe little clipper for Saturday does not have any moisture with it. A dusting to an inch at most. 5-9 is way way way to high.
ReplyDeleteI will say that the latest models have weakened the Fri/Sat clipper considerably. Although they have been wabbling all over the place with its intensity, so that may change. Still looks like we're on track for at least enough to have to get out and shovel the driveway over the weekend. Don't know if it'll be enough to call your plow guy though.
ReplyDeleteSo with this storm on Wed/Thur their was talk of some places needing a "yard stick" to measure the snow and I notice now most wont see even a foot. How did this change so much?
ReplyDeleteEric, that would be because this is Mother Nature we're talking about. It's cool how accurate we've become at forecasting a few days out, but I'm pretty sure the universe chuckles every time someone talks about what the weather will be in a few weeks :)
ReplyDeleteEric,
ReplyDeleteIt's all about physics. Forecasts today are based on computers that model the atmosphere and try to simulate what will happen days and weeks in advance based on very complex algorithms / mathematics. In many cases, the storms that are forecasted are literally not even "born" yet. That is to say, they are not already in existence, and it being just a matter of tracking its path. Rather, these storms are often in their "embryonic stage" so to speak. Just a tiny blip in the Pacific Ocean that might blossom into something a week later as it travels across the world. So, as you might imagine, the margin for error is quite high. Things can change, and they do. We haven't even begun to master weather forecasting - and maybe never will.
Could any of the mets chime in on how the saturday system is looking?
ReplyDeleteDoesnt look like much snowfan. This is going to be a boring week to be honest.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the responses Adam and DK, appreciate it. I am a Penn State student and I was just hoping to be in the big snows from this one down here in State College. I'm not in school for meteorology either, just a winter weather fan and love snowmobiling back home in Webster. :)
ReplyDeleteSee the problem with many forecasters is that they rely TOO MUCH on modeling. You may remember I mentioned that this storm would miss the us last week. I wasn't using models, I was using recent climate of this Winter. The best forecasters I learned from in school use models as guidance, not gospel! I use a similar philosophy and I serves me well
ReplyDeleteScott
Saturday's storm will be the typical quick moving clipper low. 2-5" of snow along with a gusty breeze.
ReplyDeleteScott