COLD CONTINUES MOST OF JANUARY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Happy New Year! While I have been enjoying the holiday, I have also been checking the blog often to see what everyone is talking about as we continue this La Nina Winter. After a cold and record snowy December, January looks to continue to feature cold air and modest snow around here. I don't expect many frigid days with subzero temperatures for morning lows but we will likely end the month 1 to 3 degrees below average.
Big snowstorms could remain elusive however I have seen in the past an Alberta Clipper or two "dig" along the coast and produce a big Northeast snow. Signs of this are coming together for the upcoming weekend but I expect the largest snow to fall East again. Let's hope like last year we at least get ONE doozy before Spring arrives. I will say boldly that I predict that December will end up being our snowiest month for Rochester.
Thanks for being a part of this community. We saw a ton of new visitors in 2010 and we hope that continues into the new year.
Hi Scott. Welcome Back.
ReplyDeleteDo you see any at least Advisory criteria snows coming to the ROC metro between now and this weekend? I'd like enough snow to start plowing driveways again.
We going to see any snow Tuesday Evening/night? What about any lake effect from wrap around winds from this east coast storm?
ReplyDeleteAgreed Trenton
ReplyDeleteGuys again hate to beat a dead horse like it has been on here. There will not be plowable snow in Rochester for the near future. No big storms unless they come across Ohio valley or up Central Pa. That just does not happen anymore with the jet stream. The bigger ones go east on us. Sorry!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous is right. Looking like nuisance snows the next 7-10 days.
ReplyDeleteDefine nuisance? 1-3 2-4
ReplyDeleteLooks like the far western portions of WNY have the best chance of snow in this setup if what i've seen the last few years is right. I think it might be one of those deals where the synoptic snow shield makes good progress eastward past buffalo and out to Orleans, Genesee and Wyoming counties...and just as it looks like it's coming right at Rochester next on the radar, it fizzles away by Churchville and Brockport. You just watch it happen Tuesday PM and then again on Thursday into Friday. In fact, the NWS has the chances for snow out toward Buffalo consistently higher this week into the weekend than it does here. I don't know what it is that causes that, but it happens every time we get a weak synoptic system from the west.
ReplyDeleteI live in Chili and know exactly what you're talking about. Maybe its topography or something?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like cross country skiing and snowmobiling are out of the question for weeks to come. Nickle and dime fluff on the way. Dan
ReplyDeleteAny of the mets know what causes that phenomenon to happen with the snow cutting off just our west during synoptic snows?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like this weekend the storm will go east and give us very little. I was wrong on this one but I did say something will come big between 7th and 13th. It looks like I was wrong again 0-2. However, I do believe something big I mean a big strom will come between the 13th-17th time frame. I believe this is going to be a huge storm and I think this one will go more northwest and give us good synoptic snow. I hope so because 0-3 is not good but 1-3 and I will take the .333 batting average! Hope for the Rochester snow lovers. People will ask why or how you can say that and I will say I do study the long term model runs for consistency and both the euro and gfs have agreement the last two runs and that is unusual this far out. The track will change a million times before then but if the runs some this consistency for a few more runs someone is going to get a big storm. We will only have to hope the track hits us.
ReplyDeleteHenry, I hope you are right, but time and time again these storms will go East. I think January will be cold but will lack precipitation which is consistent with the NWS long range forecast for below normal temps but below normal precip.
ReplyDeleteDan
Wouldnt be surprised if we get a couple inches tonight when that boundary crosses over the lake.
ReplyDeleteRicky - Do you have an example or a specific synoptic event. I know that doesn't happen with every synoptic event. Like today it looks very impressive with snow in and around Buffalo but as you go west the snow seems to disappear then reappear? A lot of this is the setting by the NWS radar in Buffalo. During light snow they seem to keep it in Clear Air mode. This is a more sensitive mode but not the range of precipitation mode.
ReplyDeleteAlso depending on which way the wind is blowing. If we have a good southerly wind there could be some downsloping around the Genesee Valley that would actually dry out and suppress additional precipitation formation.
A lot of factors could go into that scenario. I hope some of those helped.