GROUNDHOG DAY STORM
Written by: Brian Neudorff
We continue to track the development of the next storm system. At this point, I feel confident enough to say this will have a significant impact on our weather from late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. I think the most significant snow occurs Wednesday morning.
Since I was off and away the end of last week and the weekend I relied on Bob & Scott's posts as well as looking over the model. I think a range of 8 to 12 inches is a good range. After looking over the NAM and GFS yesterday and this morning I am thinking around 10 to 15 inches possible for Rochester.
Once we put amounts out there everyone wants to know, "What will happen in my driveway?"
It is way to early and here is what I posted in the comment section this morning on the previous post:
We really don't know what a storm can or will do until it forms. We are in the business of predicting the future. It is wonderful that the technology has gotten to the point that viewers expect specific information 3 to 4 days out. Despite all the advancements we are still dealing with many unknowns.
The speed of this storm, the northern extent of warm air and possible wintry mix, the dry air mentioned in the NWS forecast discussion can have a huge impact on amounts. No one can tell you if those will lower amount until they are present.
This is a great forum for all of us here in the News 8 Weather department. Because of the time we get each day to do the weather on air this allows us to go beyond what we talk about and go more in depth on the weather.
We are still 36 to 48 hours from this storm making its way into western New York and maybe 12 to 18 hours from this storm forming. A lot can and will take place over that time. Feel free to leave us your thoughts and your questions. Also as the storm gets closer our response time may lag just a little, but we need your reports and feedback and we totally appreciate it.
10-15 sounds good to me. Hope it verifies. we haven't seen that much all at once in a long time. I am kind of glad we have not seen one of these every week because then we would be sick of them and the excitment would be less. I am also a teacher so of course I hope for a day off wednesday. we will see!
ReplyDeleteWill see! Sounds great...bring it on!
ReplyDeleteI agree Mark! If they kept coming week after week, we would be over it quick! This gives us something to get giddy about. it is like being a kid at Christmas again. Brian, is it a safe net that we will see bigger amounts south of 5&20 like the Dansville, Wayland, Hornell area?
ReplyDeleteEither way whether we get 8 or we get 12 or more this is a significant event. There will be a period of some heavy snow. Probably Wednesday AM if everything stay on track (Obviously it can change)
ReplyDeleteEveryone gets in on the act, snow plows will love this. It may not be the epic storm all of you want. In my honest opinion no matter the storm or how big it was there would be someone on here disappointed LOL
All kidding aside I am looking forward to watching this unfold and play out. And this time we will see some of the action instead of watching others get the storm. - Brian
There have been storms that 6-12 was forecasted and we ended up with 2 feet. Storms can always outperform model data, but they can also underperform model data. I will be very happy with 10-15. It could be more than that. We will see. Warnings should go up soon.
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteDoes your in house futurecast model show any mix reaching Rochester at any point during the snow event?
I will take 10-15 as well and anything else is a bonus!! I see the watches starting to come out and as the previous poster stated, warneings will follow! Looks like a half day of work Wednesday and plowing the rest. One thing is for sure, I will have my tow strap and chain in the truck to help others that slide off of the road :) I hope people use their heads when they drive and remember that even tho they have 4 wheel drive, it doesnt mean you can stop any faster!! This is going to be fun :)Where is Henry, DK, and David this morning??
ReplyDeleteI always have in the back of my head storms that have been predicted to be bad, but then we end up with way less. I know they have warned us about this sayin the words "if" and "potnetial". It will just be a big let down if we don't see the foot they are predicting. I don't care if work is cancelled or anything at this point, i just want a decent snowfall for once this winter! I am interested also in seeing what some of the other guys have interpreted in terms of the data since i don't really know how to do that .
ReplyDelete12z NAM looks colder than yesterday. The important 0C at 850MB line never makes it to the NY/PA border, much less Rochester. ALL SNOW looks almost certain. My only concern is that I have seen some stations in-house forecast models showing mixed precip surging north across Rochester quickly by Wed. AM. I hope they are outliers. But i'm wondering what Brian sees on the channel 8's in house model?
ReplyDeleteDK what do you see with the 12z GFS not sure it stills that favorable for us seems to have moved to favor the SE (Albany area)? Also the LP does not look as strong (1040mbs)? Love your opinion!
ReplyDeleteNot sure what model you're looking at, Anonymous, but the 12z GFS has Rochester getting pounded by early Wednesday. It prints out over 1" of LIQUID equivalent. A foot total might be conservative. It also keeps the 0c line well south of Rochester. In fact, the 0c line struggles just to get past the NY/PA border. All snow and lots of it looks to be a lock for Rochester, in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteBrian, are things still looking good for ALL SNOW based on the latest data you see?
I think it's safe to say with great confidence that there is virtually NO CHANCE of this storm missing us. We appear to be about as close to getting a direct hit as you could ever hope for. My only lingering concern at this point is how far north that mix line makes it. So far, we appear to be okay. The trend seems to be somewhat farther south with the mix than before. But as of right now, I can't see anything other than plain old snow hitting Rochester. Just waiting for Brian or Scott to hear their opinion on that.
ReplyDeleteThe teachers want a snow day! Bring it on!
ReplyDelete(Just make sure the snow blower is working!)
DK for Rochester and even MOST if not ALL of western NY it stays snow. The 12Z did not show much warm air advection moving north. Now again this can change but all the models seem to have a very strong consensus that this is a "hit" for western NY and Rochester.
ReplyDeleteOur in house model for 12Z went NUTS. By 6pm on Wednesday it wanted to print out over 20 inches for Rochester. In order to maintain consistency and my personal & professional opinion I think that is too high right now. I just wanted to tell you what we saw so you had a full disclosure. I am sticking with my 10-15 inches. Still too many possible features that could minimize amounts so I factored that in.
I look forward to more conversations. -Brian
DK I agree with you! I think we are in a good spot and it is only 36 hours away. I posted 12-18 the other day and I still think that is good. Again I am not an expert but maybe that positive thinking has paid off! Not to jump ahead but DK what are you seeing in the early models for Saturday- Sunday? Thanks
ReplyDeleteFYI the warmest 850mb temperatures (If this temperature were to get above 0 then wintry mix would be a concern) I saw from the NAM and GFS was -4 on the GFS. NAM kept it cold warmest seemed to be -9 (all Celsius)
ReplyDeleteWow, so this is for real, guys. The storm is officially under 48 hours away. Models are all gung ho about a major hit. The GFS has conditions approaching severe levels by early Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteThis is the storm we've been waiting for...
So, I think it's safe to say that in terms of all snow, Rochester is safe.
ReplyDeleteBrian, this is starting to sound like it could turn pretty bad. Don't want to add any unreasonable hype here, though. But it's been a long time since i've seen model output all across the board so aggressive for snow in our area.
We don't want to hype or be part of hype. This will be a significant storm and if I were making plans or had plans for Wednesday I would change them. Especially if I was traveling.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion both personally and professionally I wouldn't want to underestimate the potential here. When it comes to winter forecasts like this that is a lot of what we look at. What is the worst case scenario and how do we prepare the public.
Winds will pick up there will be a couple of hours especially early Wednesday morning into Wednesday Midday where snowfall rates could be 1" if not 2" an hour. I don't disagree with the NWS if the models verify then thunder and lightning can't be ruled out.
We are not calling this a blizzard. Keep in mind a blizzard warning is issued when visibility due to snow or just blowing snow reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less for at least 3 hours. I don't think we will have that but blowing snow with winds will also be a possibility. If the temperatures get close to 30 (upper 20s) it will be a wetter snow too.
I want everyone to know that this storm as it looks right now (Monday Noon) is something that needs to be watched and taken seriously. Especially if you have to go to work or you have to travel. If it were me and I didn't have to come to work during the heart of the storm (yes I am excited about Wednesday morning) I would be at home watching the storm safe and sound from home.
Oh, geez, I didn't even think about that Brian. You'll be driving in it right around its peak! Please drive careful, buddy.
ReplyDeleteI always prefer to take the side streets over the major expressways during snowstorms because I find I have more control and can pull right over safely into a parking lot or something if needed. Plus, you can set your own pace on side streets. On the expressways, however, people feel emboldened to drive too fast for conditions and you're at the mercy of all the other drivers in the other lanes. Plus, on and off ramps as well as overpasses / flyovers are just plain dangerous.
A cure for the whining! Finally!...Glad this one looks like it's gonna pan out for us
ReplyDeleteSnowFan no worries about me. I am about 2 to 4 miles from the station. All roads I take are side roads. I may be borrowing our family van that has traction control over my car.
ReplyDeleteI am excited I love snow and winter storms. I really want to see some flashes of snowstorm lightning. To all of you getting excited, I can understand why. I feel it too, but before you read the raw numbers from the models keep in mind this will be a weakening storm, a mature storm as it moves across the region. There is likely to have that dry slot so we need to watch that. Those can kill snow amounts very easily. I've seen it time and time again.
I only mention this to keep everything in perspective. don't just read the high side of the snow range but also the low range. Keep it real and we will also keep you updated.
Im going to predict 32-52" I think Chris is going to climb his roof, put a ladder on it, climb that and physically grab and slow down the Low.
ReplyDeletethat is hilarious!
ReplyDeleteI could see him trying
ReplyDeleteOh boy, if some of us had the power to actually do that, Rochester would perpetually be in a blizzard. Of course, then you'd have the people that don't like snow trying throw a high at it.....maybe it's a good thing we don't control the weather. Yet....
ReplyDeleteDid not want to hear dry slot.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't worry about a dry slot. Storm hasn't even formed yet and by the continued consistency with the models this baby is going to have more moisture than a high school locker room.
ReplyDeleteLMFAO. David, I think a little Piss came out at the same time I spit my beer out!! Are you gonna help hold the ladder?? That wad great!! I am excited for sure. I have already been out touching base with clients for plowing. I don't think I am going to go into work Wednesday. Yes, I do have. 4 wheel drive and I could make it bit I would rather enjoy the storm rather than get half way to work and stuck in the middle of the road for hours waiting in wrecks to clear. So I expect to see David, Henry, and DK down here to help me hold the ladder and ropes in place!! Thanks for the laugh buddy!!
ReplyDeleteDry slot, dry slot, dry slot!
ReplyDeleteHere is my prediction. Wednesday morning will be the worst. 4-8 inches maybe. Then it will wind down very quickly. The worst of this storm will be the wind.
Sorry snow lovers :)
It amazes me how good our technology is that we can predict a dry slot even before the storm really forms...Of course i want to think that it won't happen and we will stay with precip the whole time. I am glad they do mention it though because then we won't be so pissed if it does happen for a few hours or whatever. Brian got me excited because he was really sounding concerned finally about this system. i am glad we will dodge the ice, that is a mess with power out etc.
ReplyDeletehow did you arrive at your prediction anonymous? what info do you have to back that up against all the mets in town saying it potentially may be way higher than that?
ReplyDeleteI think he is banking on me falling off the ladder!
ReplyDeleteI forgot to ask what tomorrow is looking like ahead of the storm. I know there had been soon talk about some snow tomorrow. Are we looking at light snow tomorrow then it kicks in tomorrow night?
ReplyDeleteSame d-bag busting your balls.
ReplyDeleteyep, looks like a general light snow tomorrow with 1 or 2 inches throughout the day. It will probably taper off in the afternoon, giving everybody who doesn't check the weather reports (NOT US) a false sense of security...and then BAM, the really heavy stuff hits in the wee hours of early wednesday morning. By sunrise on Wednesday, it will be looking quite "blizzard-ish" around here.
ReplyDeleteNWS discussion says 10-15 inches for the general area!!!! there usually a tad on the conservative side as well..should be a great fast moving storm regardless
ReplyDeleteI think we are going to get rain. Just rain. No snow.
ReplyDeleteGo to school, kids.
Love,
The Grinch
hahaha
ReplyDeleteI want to address a couple of things brought up by some of you. First of all the mention of the dry slot. For those that don't know this where dry air begins to get wrapped into a mature developed storm. Now, there was no technology telling us this. Simply past storms and past occurrences. I only brought it up as some of the factors that could diminish snow amounts. Also as Scott pointed out the speed of this storm.
ReplyDeleteI am not as concerned about warmer air working far north so that looks to eliminate that threat to diminish snow.
I started to say 10-15 inches as of this morning and a part of me thinks (maybe wishes) we are being a bit conservative. Keep in mind the comments I post here in the comment section are mine and not necessarily those of Bob or Scott. We will all see the same information and interpret it differently.
What I am impressed with is that our in house model FutureCast as well as the GFS and NAM on BUFKIT print out 20 to 24 inches of snow by Wednesday evening. I would LOVE to go with those numbers but not sure if they are viable just yet. I mention them here so you know all that we are looking at and using in our forecast. It also makes for great conversation starters.
You really have to be conservative. If you say we will get 20-25 and we only get 10 you look bad. If you say 10-15 and we get 20, not so bad.
ReplyDeleteAm I the only loser to literally get goose bumps seeing the storm totals?
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm WARNING now in effect. This replaces the Watch.
Winter Storm Warnings for all of western NY
ReplyDeleteBrian, Thanks for all of the information. I like the fact that you and Scott are regulars on here. I like Bob but he doesn't contribute as much as you and Scott. I was wondering what your thoughts are on higher amounts for those of us south of 5&20. Dont get me wrong buddy, I am happy with what you have said so far for totals but I wanted your thoughts on higher amounts for us farther south. Thanks Again!
ReplyDeleteNo SnowFan, you weren't the only one :)
ReplyDeleteI hope this storm hammers us. Anywhere from 8-18 inches of snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGolly gee, ooooh boy, gee whilikers this sounds like sooooo much fun. Two to 3 days of back breaking digging. I can hardly contain my excitement.
ReplyDeleteIt's good to see this blog alive again :)
ReplyDeleteThunderSnow is also possible !!!
ReplyDeleteI'm enjoying this blog again as well! If only everyone would remain in this pre-storm bliss year round! But alas, it doesn't matter how much snow we get, many will be back on here on Thursday asking about the next one ;)
ReplyDeleteThe NWS states only 10-14 for us. Could that be conservative?
ReplyDeleteChris, maybe we can carry a trampoline onto your roof. That in combination with a Texas lasso we will hog tie this storm.
ReplyDeleteAdam "Asking for the Next one" someone was already asking about Sat & Sun before this one even started to form. Let's take it one storm at a time. Enjoy.
ReplyDeleteIs 10-14 inches conservative. Personally, professionally I think it is, but for now it is a very good and solid estimate in my opinion. Before the NWS came out I was saying 10-15" this morning.
The reason I am concerned it is low is from what I have seen on BUFKIT as well as the other models saying amounts near 20 inches. That number seems to high and would really be silly to go on air with that. Something in side of me is thinking 16-18 inches, call it gut I don't know but that is something I am feeling.
Now this is my personal view based on what I have seen. I speak only for myself and not for our official forecast.
So if it isn't the "Official Forecast" why mention it. I want you all to know what is going through my mind. Maybe where I am starting from when I put together my forecast and blend it with Scott and Bob's thoughts.
A lot of what I am thinking has to do with what I am seeing in some of the last few model runs. I can't escape seeing the NAM, GFS, and even our in house model print out 20+ inches. Also, I have been burned by storms in the past and guess what I did early in my career, undercut the numbers. I am just excited to see this play out.
Yes, this is definitely going to be one heck of a storm to sit back and watch. The possiiblity of thunder and lighting at the height of this storm gives an idea of the dynamics involved. I agree 100 percent with Brian. Something tells me this storm is going to be a doozy. I'm glad that the confidence has gone so high in terms of being ALL snow, too.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, does anybody know if the city has a on-street parking policy in advance of big snowstorms? People are going to need to get their parked cars off the streets before this hits or we're going to have a major issue for the snow plows maneuvering through the many narrow city streets. Lots of buried cars curb side and massive snow banks could make some streets impassable.
ReplyDeletei was thinking the same thing DK. gonna be a mess especially if it falls really fast like its supposed to. the plows wont be able to keep up and salt will be useless if it snows heavy enough
ReplyDeleteI really hope i wake up in the wee hours of the morning on wednesday to the sound of thunder!! I have witnessed thundersnow only once in my 20 years alive, and i remember seeing a flash through the snow, then a really low rumble of thunder due to the falling snow muffling the sound. It was quite an experience and I hope to witness it again here real soon. Also, i don't know who is at the office right now, but Brian or Scott, do you think that wednesday morning has the potential to be one of the more dramatic winter scenes we have seen in quite a while? And if we do get thundersnow, would that act as a thunderstorm does in the summertime, with extremely heavy precipitation, or is it a little different with snow!? Thanks
ReplyDeleteBMan..I am with ya on that!! Thunder snow is amazing!! It has such a different sound to it. I plan to rise early that morning and get my coffee and sit on the porch! Yep, I am crazy. But I also chased blisters in the south :)
ReplyDelete* Twisters - damn you auto correct!!
ReplyDeleteYou should put a disclaimer at the top of the blog ( if there isn't already ) that what the News 8 Mets say in this blog, stay in this blog.
ReplyDeleteIt is much more fun if we feel like we are in the "weather office" discussing scenarios without them having to explain many times that it isn't an official forecast. I'm sure most already look at it that way. Just an opinion.
Got the snowmobile and snow thrower gassed up, bought some salt for the driveway... now I am just looking and praying skyward.
zzzzzzzzzzzz
ReplyDeleteElaine in Naples received 3" of snow since last night, and it is gusty and presently snowing lightly
ReplyDelete