IF THE GFS VERIFIES...
...then this will most likely stay as snow. Looking at the differences in the GFS/EURO thinking says to me that 50 miles will make all the difference for us yet again. But as the good man Mr. Hetsko is known for saying around the office, a storm that is tracking more west to east is never going to give us a major snowfall. No doubt this will be on the order of at least 6-10" for most of the area, but blizzard it is not. It's moving too quick, temperatures are too borderline, and any limited time of non-frozen precipitation will squash snow totals.
This event starts slowly during late Tuesday with occasional snow showers, quickly picking up strength by Wednesday morning. Areas south have the best chance of seeing an icy mix for a few hour period early Wednesday, but as the data updates, I'm leaning more and more towards an all-snow event for the whole area. Either way, expect problematic driving conditions all day Wednesday with the travel hangover lingering into Thursday as well. The bulls-eye misses us yet again. But based on what I see right now, this may be less of a snow event and more of a rain/mix event in the big cities... precisely the areas that need snow LEAST right now.
Hi Bob,
ReplyDeleteAs of today's latest 12z runs, do you see any major models that project a changeover to mixed precip making it all the way to Rochester? Or does virtually every model continue to show ALL snow for Rochester at this point?
Wow, from what I have seen these snow totals are on the extreme low end of all others I have seen from other reputable meteorologists. I for one am not buying these numbers, along with the idea that we will not be pushing blizzard conditions. Everyone else says high winds and snows in excess of a foot.
ReplyDeleteI hope Bob is right---10" is no minor event for my back but it's better than what all you nuts are wishing on us.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping for rain.
I guess i don't understand why it can't be a blizzard due to it moving too fast... For it to be a blizzard you need 35 mph winds and and visibility reduced down to a 1/4 of a mile for about three hours or more. I don't think it will get that windy around here, but to say it can't be classified a blizzard due to the speed it moves doesn't make sense to me, unless he thinks the storm isn't going to last for more than three hours!? And DK, that mix line does get pretty close to us, but i can't imagine it bringing it that far past the NY/PA border. And can someone tell me if I'm wrong for thinking this but since when is a foot of snow not a major snow event? I don't mean to hate on Bob, but his negativity is a little annoying sometimes and also makes him sound a little ignorant from time to time.
ReplyDeleteThis forecast is just way out there for me. To begin with, we will be facing water equivalents of 1.25" or more with temperatures in the low twenties. How on earth does this possibly equate to 6-10 inches of snow just using a simple 10:1 snow to water ratio? and with temperatures this low the ratio will be higher. Second of all, the tragectory of the area of low pressure is not west to east. The only way we get 6-10 is if this thing pushes farther north and we start mixing precipitation types. And please explain to me how Bob can be so certain three days out that we will not be in the sweet spot for snow when every indication is that we very well may be.
ReplyDeleteI am also confused even the latest NAM run has us getting over a foot at least. I think I am right in reading that this is going to be a strong storm with a great deal of moisture.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, BMD. The speed of the storm itself doesn't necessarilly have anything to do with whether it would meet blizzard criteria. IF...and that is a big IF....we were to remain all snow for the entire duration, then we may come close to borderline blizzard criteria for awhile. But at the end of the day, I don't think a true blizzard will be met. In terms of the possible changeover, it looks like the southerntier and southern finger lakes will have a changeover, but it's honestly still up in the air as to how far north it gets. It's a tough forecast for our area, to say the least.
ReplyDeleteCorrect in saying storm speed doesn't dictate blizzard conditions. The more data I see, the more I see blizzard conditions as a possibility.
ReplyDeleteRight now, nearly all the model data I've looked at has us in pure snow for the whole event. But a 50-100 mile shift north and we've got a whole different story on our hands. Yes folks, if you were to take the models EXACTLY as they look right now, we are getting sweet-spotted, we are likely pushing blizzard conditions, and we'll almost all see a foot. But this is still 3 full days away.
If you look at the difference between the 12z and 18z NAM alone, the jump in the center of the low is well over 150 miles north to south. I don't call that consistency, not one bit.
I'd specifically focus on the higher elevations south of Rochester for the most snow in our area. There is a vertical velocity product I just looked at that cranks out some of the biggest numbers of the storm in the southern tier come Wednesday morning. At that elevation, its a pretty good bet that it stays snow for the whole event. Easily a foot or more if you're in the southern half of Livingston, Wyoming, or Ontario counties.
-Bob
Thanks for the update, Bob. You can't please everybody, and no sense of ever trying. They should have a meteorology course in colleges that specificially teach aspiring mets how to deal with the unruly public who finds flaws with a meteorologists forecast every step of the way. Even though the public doesn't have a clue what they're talking about 95 percent of the time. Oh well. Keep up the good work, Bob.
ReplyDeleteNWS Buf...AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
ReplyDeleteCOULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH IF THE LATEST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
QPF FORECASTS COME TO FRUITION.
That's where the fine line lays HeavyWX. It'll be a fight between the cooling effect of being in the higher elevations and the fact that they are further south and lay closer to the "line". This will also be a snow completely different that the likes of what we've seen so far this year. With the cold the way its been, the snow has been light, fluffy, and of low density. This stuff will be much heavier in nature.
ReplyDelete-Bob
I agree with lakeEffecter. Bob, you are doing a fine job and thank you for the updates. As far as the storm, I am super psyched. I am in Ontario county and have not seen that glorious snow that you folks up north have. And I am a teacher so you all know I am hoping for a snow day :).
ReplyDeleteIt's the joy of working in one of the most inexact sciences that demands the most exact predictions of all. That's why you'll always see a variety in weather forecasts, even in the same office!
ReplyDeleteLook this is a big storm for us, the biggest synoptic event of the year so far. Right now most people will see a foot, hands down. When I say "major" snowfall like I did in earlier posts, I'm referring to 2 feet of snow for all areas involved. Classic Nor'easters that end up in textbooks have a much more south to north component to them as compared to this guy. Is this big snow? Yep. Is it "blockbuster?" I wouldn't say so. That's the point I was aiming for. I'll choose words more carefully next time around.
I'm simply saying that you cannot say we will or will not get bullseyed 3 days out when we are SO CLOSE to the rain/mix line.
-Bob
Thanks bobby, so is this going to turn out like heart attack snow with huge flakes?
ReplyDeleteAlso will Mr. Ontario kick up behind the system?
Not sure what you mean by "heart attack" snow... but yes huge flakes will be the norm.
ReplyDeleteLake Ontario has a limited window to be active post-storm. High pressure (and a strong one at that) moves in quite quickly on Thursday. There's lake snow potential there, but it shouldn't add all that much on top of what we get initially.
-Bob
Yep, this upcoming snow is going to come "pre-compacted" rather than the fluff that compacts to half it's depth a day later. Shovel carefully, folks.
ReplyDeleteAhh, just put two and two together there Heavy... yes it'll be more dense snow that what we've been "blessed" with so far. Take it easy on that back!
ReplyDelete-Bob
Bob, for the viewers out near Buffalo.. do we look to be on the NW side of the precipitation shield or will the Entire I90 corridor from Buffalo to Syracuse see an area wide similar snow... i didnt know if Buffalo was in a good spot to be in?? thanks for your time..
ReplyDeleteNot good the 18z GFS trened a good deal south and that may continue this is not good for western NY good for Syracuse east I am now worried. What do you think DK?
ReplyDeleteFor now it looks like it will be close in Buffalo, but I'm thinking pure snow.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the Dansville to Bath area in regards to snow vs mix?
ReplyDeleteThe 18z and 6z runs of the GFS and NAM are not as reliable as the 0z and 12z runs that come out at 10:30 AM and PM. But in any case, that 18z run you speak of doesn't trend anywhere near being too far south to give us an impact. There is virtually NO WAY that this storm will miss us to the south. The tracks are already layed, so to speak, so no worries there. If anything, a trend somewhat south is good because it would gaurentee all snow and greatly reduce the risk of an icy mix reaching farther north. No worries.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure what GFS you are looking at but the 18z GFS takes the storm through central Pa which is good for us to get heavy snow.
ReplyDeleteWhen the NWS says Upper Genese Valley what do they mean.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS service is saying 1-2 feet, but our local stations are not even putting any totals so far. If 1-2 feet are realized this could be a serious storm and the public should be made aware of it.
ReplyDeleteWhat about lake enhancement? Where is everyone? We finally have a storm to talk about and no-one is around.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure about much lake enhancement. Based on the model consistency I would put, and by no means am I an expert, a 12-18 in range for Rochester with winds 10-20 mph. I again also think the temperature will be below zero with the WC. This will be a good size storm for the flower city. Just my opinion Thanks
ReplyDeleteThis will be a quick mover! While a good amount of snow is possible, prolonged lake enhancement is not likely. 8-12" for most is my thought at this point with some towns getting a bit more It won't be a blizzard!!!! It's a weakening low as it crosses Pennsylvania. Pressure rises from 994mb to 1004 mb by the time is hits the coast.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Scott Hetsko
Yeah, as of now, its looking like this storm is a go for the middle of the week! And regarding the lake effect question, there will most likely be at least a small window of opportunity for lake effect, but as Bob mentioned earlier, high pressure is following the storm fairly quickly. So at this point, i'm sure the lake will help prolong the event and maybe up our totals a bit, but nothing more than a few more inches after the storm. Enhancement is a little bit more tricky to forecast, but as far as i know, cold air coming over the lakes with a serious supply of moisture should do at least something in the way of enhancing the snow, but then again, i'm no expert. I would expect to see winter storm watches posted by the morning for our area, and as long as the models stay in agreement, warnings for the entire area should be in effect by the end of the night tomorrow!
ReplyDelete8-12 is really no BIG deal for Rochester. 12-18 is a pretty big deal
ReplyDeleteThere is abundant moisture with this system. I still think 8-12 is conservative. Who gets the 12 and who gets the 8?
ReplyDeleteIt is WAY too early to say who gets what! These are very early estimates.
ReplyDelete-Bob
This is awesome for us snow lovers!! I feel bad for those who do not like snow but for those that do, this is great!! Being that I fall in the "Southern Livingston County" area.( About 6 miles doth of Conesus Lake) so I can not wait to see how much we get!! Time to have some fun with the 4 wheel drive and enjoy our snow storm!!
ReplyDeleteThe latest 0z NAM just coming in is remarkably colder. The changeover line barely makes it to the NY/PA border. No chance for a mix in Rochester whatsoever. Just lots of snow, I think.
ReplyDeleteChicago has blizzard watches up with a potential for 2ft of snow because of lake enhancement due to a NE wind. Why should it not be any different for us with a NE wind?
ReplyDeleteDK, can you post the link for the latest run for me please? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteAlso, with temps in the 20's tis will not be a heavy wet snow. It will be a fluffy snow which will increase the snow ratio. How is it way to early to make snow predictions. The storm is only 2 days away.
ReplyDeleteChris you can go to the National Weather service out of Buffalo and look at the models by clicking on Forecast Models.
ReplyDeleteThanks, I found it. I had all my favorites saved until my 5 year old got ahold of my laptop! It snowqing pretty heavy down my way right now. I guess we are getting it off of Erie!! I can't wait until Tuesday when the real snow starts!!
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Watch now in effect for Wed. for all of western NY
ReplyDeleteI love it. The NWS states 8-16 inches. SO, who gets the 8 and who gets the 16. The range is outrageous. Even I can say 8-16 and I most likely will be right. It is like they do not know so they have to put an outrageous range to cover their butts.
ReplyDeleteThey also talk about a dry slot which could drastically cut down snow totals.
ReplyDeleteTo the person criticizing the range by the NWS the range we have put here are 8 to 12" which is still a broad range. Also we don't say who gets 8 and who gets 12.
ReplyDeleteWe really don't know what a storm can or will do until it forms. We are in the business of predicting the future. It is wonderful that the technology has gotten to the point that viewers expect specific information 3 to 4 days out. Despite all the advancements we are still dealing with many unknowns.
The speed of this storm, the northern extent of warm air, the dry air mentioned in the NWS forecast discussion can have a huge impact on amounts. No one can tell you if those will lower amount until they are present.
Just keep that in mind when criticizing a forecast this far out. I understand we all want to know specifics especially if a storm will inconvenience our life or we just want snow and we want to know how much NOW!
This will be a fun site over the next couple of days. We look forward to telling you what we are thinking and hear what you are thinking too. -Brian
Great post Brian! I'll keep reading and watching your forcast. Love this blog!
ReplyDeleteI find these blogs very informational and glad they are here. I'm sure it gets discouraging to hear criticizing , many people are quick to do so, probably more so when they don't know how involved the profession can be. I just wanted to chime in say how much I appreciate reading these blogs..it keeps us general public informed. Thank you all at news 8!
ReplyDeleteWhen will they issue warnings
ReplyDeletescott you suck dude
ReplyDeletefrom 12/24 to 4/7 thats not even close you cost alot of people alot of money man not good you look like a fool time to go buddy cant trust you anymore
ReplyDelete