SOMTHING'S FISHY ABOUT THIS ONE...
Written By: Scott Hetsko
It amazes me how every storm that is on the models for over 3 days gets too much HYPE! Ask the guys who work with me how much I hate speculation. Ok...off my soapbox now.
No one is talking about the 850mb low. That is the one thing that is fishy with this storm. Whenever an 850mb low tracks into Jamesstown as it's deepening, you've GOT TO get a mix in the Southern Tier. Simply too much warm air aloft for there not to be some mixing in Wednesday morning South of the thruway. Models are starting to pick up on this fact.
I have no clue why people see 20" totals from this one. I can only say that I don't. This will be a significant snowfall with the majority of it falling from just after midnight Wednesday a.m. through early afternoon. I don't see much lake effect other than a bit Wednesday night and early Thursday.
Bottom line: A significant storm but nothing to be super worried about.
Thanks for the suspense! lol
ReplyDeleteAwwww, come on Scott. I was going to bed at 9! Looks like I'll be staying up. You better have good news!
ReplyDeleteThe update is that the storm will be a mix and thus lowering the snow totals substantially !!! :(
ReplyDeleteReverse psychology, I like it!
ReplyDeleteLatest models suggest 84 degrees, hazy sun. Get your sunblock out kids!
ReplyDeleteWhere is the update?
ReplyDeleteDamn it David, now I have an extension ladder AND a trampling on my roof for nothing.........:)
ReplyDeleteChris, you can get a un-obstructive tan up there..
ReplyDeleteYikes Houston we may have a problem latest NAM pushes precip. more SE the high is suppressing it further SE kind of worried now!
ReplyDeleteGetting close to 10? Scott will be on the air shortly.
ReplyDeletetick tock tick tock tick tock
ReplyDeleteI said yesterday 12-18 for this strom. Based on what i see now I am think total counting tomorrows snow will be 20-24 inches by Thursday morning. I am not an expert just positive thinking and previous storm track history.
ReplyDeleteI leave that to the Mrs. David! I prefer the working mans tan. Ya know left arm tan and the all famous farmers tan!! Anyway, whats this about the NAM Pushing SE? David, Henry, DK, Scott?? Your take on that. Give Scottie a break folks. He is busier than a one leg man at an ass kicking contest right now. He still has 20 minutes...
ReplyDeletedefinitely about 20" on average maybe more along the lake..
ReplyDeleteHaha Chris........ I think Scott is in the middle of an intense game of yahoo backgammon...
ReplyDeleteLooks like going to have to tune in to the 10 pm news for that update gotta love it.
ReplyDeleteOK Scott Rochester's most accurate forecaster has brought us back to earth! A good storm but nothing to extreme no thundersnow and stuff like that.
ReplyDeleteOh well, another dissappointment.
ReplyDeleteha.........I think this Met has lost it, and most 20 totals include Tuesday and Wednesday anyways, so yes, the map would probably be consistent for Wednesday. Anyways, get some salt, that humble pie can be nasty stuff.
ReplyDeletethanks haarps
ReplyDelete10-14 is nothing.
ReplyDeleteIt isnt over until Mrs. Anonymous sings...
ReplyDeleteIt never fails, just when we think we might get a BIG storm it turns out to be a wimp.
ReplyDeleteI am going to bed. Nothing to be excited about now. Scott dashed my hopes.
ReplyDeleteEven if we only get 10-14 inches its much better than we have seen all year.
ReplyDelete2-4" early Tuesday but this isn't THE STORM
ReplyDeleteThis is still a very good snowfall and WED AM there sure as heck may be thundersnow
ReplyDeleteSorry, 10-14 sucks. I can only hope Scott is wrong with this. I doubt he is, but I am hoping he will be.
ReplyDeleteAgreed..10-14 beats what we have had! Looks like I will go work after all. May as well, as it will be an easy day. No one will come in! Thanks Scott for the update. I am off to bed!
ReplyDeleteIf I'm wrong anywhere it would be North where some extra enhancement WED night and early THU could push the numbers to 16-18" for some. Still not sold on that but I could be wrong. Not perfect, you know. We'll adjust the numbers tomorrow before the storm hits!
ReplyDeleteScott
It looks to me that we get at least 1-2 inch per hour snow fall from 1am Wednesday to 11 am and that to me equates even if we split the difference to 15 inches. That is just my opinion and Scott just mentioned a possibility of lake enhancement north of 90 Weds. night to Thurs. morning. I agree that will happen and give another 4 to 6 inches. That is just my opinion I am not an expert.
ReplyDeleteWhere is DK he has been quiet?
ReplyDeleteNot much new to add tonight. Scott and Brian have done an excellent job detailing it all. I'm a little concerned, as I have been all along, about where that ALL Snow / Mix line is going to setup. I'm concerned sleet creeping farther north or sooner than expected could really hurt forecasted snowfall totals. I've seen it happen before on more than one occasion in Western New York. But right now we're at the mercy of forecast models and expert analysis. At this short range, Scott and his team have access to so much more cool data than we do. Here's to hoping Rochester stays all snow.
ReplyDeleteScott and his crew are great, but I also notice here in Rochester that Rnews isn't too bad either. They never hype a storm and when the do say there may be some higher totals of snow, there usually is. Rnews is giving some higher totals of snow right now and isn't indicating anything "fishy". Forecast's can definitely change and that is what is fun with trying to see what will actually happen with this storm. Often too much "hype" leads to now that much snow. But in this case, I think we have a pretty good shot for some good snow. Sometimes all the best forecasters and models can only tell us so much, we have to wait and see to as what actually falls!!! snow lovers wish for lots of snow and a snow day.............don't be hating on us!!!
ReplyDeleteRnews is a SHAM. They pretend they're always live and up to the minute but it's just pre-recorded. For all you know, that forecast was filmed 8 hours ago.
ReplyDeleteAlbany NWS is saying this will be a blockbuster storm for them with up to 2ft posssible. I do not understand why they would get 2ft and us only 12 with the storm going more to their West.
ReplyDeleteOur biggest storms were forecasted with low totals and we end up getting 2 ft.
Come on scott, Lets get BULLISH! Almost every model is now painting us w/ 1.3-1.7 precip and keeping the 850 well below 0. But I doooo agree w/ yu that anytime we get mix going into Jamestown it quickly moves into the lower genesee! This cannot be discounted, think of the storm a couple of yrs ago w/ huge snowfall predictions north of thruway that ended w/ just 12" of overunning and then sleet and drizzle. But, pattern recognition also suggests that w/ a ene wind LES WILL be a factor. Kevin has been forecasting longer and He is seeing it. But if sleet happens. 0zs say no, but i'm not convinced. Me thinks 10-24 S- North. But I live N so perhaps im 'wishcasting'. dvdmwataol.com
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteI notice your snowfall map on-air has the 10-14 inch line adjusted a bit farther south. Is this based on the latest thinking that the mix will not make it as far north as earlier thought?
DK - Honestly it was just a goof this morning. I hit something when checking it and had to redraw the 10-14 amounts. I am still thinking with Scott. The more and more I look the warmth is going to get into the Southern Tier and get close to the Thruway. Think Rochester stays all snow but we will need to watch that warmth.
ReplyDeleteI can honestly say I got caught up in the numbers and models yesterday. That is why I had disclaimers in my thoughts and didn't change my official forecast of 10-15 inches. Good thing. Will have another update later this morning.
why is it we are told if the storm tarcks west we will be on warm side well it is tracking south and east but still gonna get a mix something is fishy think about it people
ReplyDeleteWell this storm is more tracking on top of us than it is south and east. Also, weather is more than just what takes place at the surface. What Scott was pointing out was the 850mb low above the surface storm. This too is almost on top of us and its location will push warmer air in into the mid levels of the atmosphere. It may remain at or below freezing at the surface in the southern Tier but with precip melting above then refreezing that is a wintry mix
ReplyDelete-Brian
Brian, does that more of a mix for everyone then? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNo, I am not changing the current thinking I think south of the Thruway snow amounts will be less because of sleet mixing in but in Rochester and north of the Thruway should be all snow. -Brian
ReplyDeleteRight on Scott! And if anyone ever lived in the NE and Upstate knows how to really handle the snow. The news media hypes everything! And they put their 'spin' on it. It's winter people!
ReplyDeleteFor those who dont...slow down! take your time!
lol, Fox is saying, Snowmageddon. Spin spin
Thanks Brian I appreciate it! It was a slippery commute in this morning. The plows were starting to roll when I left so there was a decent amount on the roads but nothing that required 4 wheel drive. I agree with the last poster. It amazes me to see the amounts of cats that slide off of the roads when it snows. I spent 11 years in TN and came back to NY with no issues of driving in snow. I only use my 4 wheel when needed not like others who use to to drive like an idiot. Stay safe folks and enjoy our first storm.
ReplyDeleteThanks to all for the weather banter. As a weather nerd, I really enjoy the insight. I'm hoping for a decent storm, but my 40 plus years here in ROC is tempering my expectations based on how things occasionally fizzle out.
ReplyDeleteWhat time do the next models come out that could impact the forecast?
AL
Brian, Scott,
ReplyDeleteIt does seem to point that this storm might not be as bad as first predicted. Some of my co-workers are talking about not showing up to work tomorrow morning. Do you believe tomorrow mornings commute will be that to stay off the roads?
Boy I hope Scott is wrong, I have lived in several places and never have a disliked the weather man so much. You come off as a KNOW IT ALL!! Is it so bad to play up a winter storm?
ReplyDeleteIs it wrong to play up a winter storm? Yes it is. When you build your reputation up on accuracy that's what you want to be. You don't want to scare people making them go out and think they are locked in their houses for days. That is just irresponsible. Also, governments and people who depend on the weather to make money or even send employees to works depend on a solid forecast. If they were over prepared to plow the roads and then the municipality and local government loses money on overtime, or an employee be it school or private says don't come into work loses a day if the forecast is wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe official forecast has changed very little since this weekend. I don't know where you think it won't be as bad as it was first forecasted. This weekend the forecast was for amounts 8 to 12. Since then it has been to 10-15 and settled on 10-14 with a possibility of 18 localized.
Yes Wednesday morning looks to be bad especially 6 to 9am. We could be seeing some near the peak of this storm with heavy snow, possible wintry mix to the south. I wouldn't want to be on the road at that time if I didn't have to be. - Brian