NYC NOW TIED WITH ROCHESTER FOR JANUARY SNOW
Written By: Scott Hetsko
While we get our inch or two at a time, NYC got another 12-18" of snow yesterday. They are now TIED with Rochester for January snowfall with 29" each. The difference is that while we've seen some little snow each day, NYC has on recorded snow on 7 days this month.
When they get hit, it's an upper cut while we've been barely getting jabbed with snow around here. No end in sight from our snowstorm drought. Time is on our side, two full months of big snow potential still exist.
Is the snow in Buffalo going to move into Rochester in the next hour or two?
ReplyDeleteJoe Bastardi has an interesting piece on his website about the rather bizarre pattern of cold that has happened thus far this winter. He basically acknowledged that he messed up the outlook by forecasting warm weather for the south, along with a tame winter for the east after about Christmas. He noted how very strange this winter has been given the la nina pattern. He also noted that there are NO analogues that fit with this pattern. In other words, this cold pattern has never really been seen before in a moderate to strong la nina. He concluded by hinting that there are larger things at play here that we may not fully understand - namely a very weak solar cycle similar to the Maunder Minimum, which triggered a "little ice age" that allowed the Thames in England to freeze over during the winter.
ReplyDeleteLong story short, if we didn't have a strong ENSO, I can't imagine how much worse this winter could be for many parts of the U.S. I said this before and i'll say it again....Just wait until NEXT winter and the winters to follow that. Winters may become more and more severe around here soon. Experts like Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo have been preaching the coming cold related to a low solar cycle for years...and i'll be darned....it's actually beginning to happen. They were right!
Looks like that second batch over Genesee county has Rochester metro written all over it. Problems is, it might be around rush hour. Hopefully it doesn't stick much to the roads.
ReplyDeleteI have also been shocked by the lack of effect this moderate La Nina has had. Compared to other La Nina Winters, this one is the outlier for sure! It has always amazed me how little credit the SUN gets for our weather patterns. I mean the sun is everything! It's the main reason we have weather in the first place.
ReplyDeleteScott
Snow showers will accumulate a quick 1-2" in spots this evening, slick spots be careful!
ReplyDeleteWhy bother looking for a sun-climate connection when you have good 'ole Anthropogenic Global Warming to pin everything on? It's the greatest catch all of all time. (Sarcasm)
ReplyDeleteEven though we have missed most of the synoptic acitivity, this has been an unprecedented winter. Its been fairly cold around here with lake ontario on a mission, freezing down in florida, paralyzing ice and snow in the deep southeast, and no comment needed for the eastern seaboard. Bottom line, this winter will definitely be studied in the future and has already gone down in history. And the scary thing is, its not even february yet!!!!
ReplyDeleteloving this winter!
ReplyDeleteDK - you may have covered this before and this info is probably somewhere but I figured I would ask. What do you see happening next winter and the subsequent winters that you have been alluding to with relation to the ENSO? It's my understanding that La Nina will continue through summer and into fall (but is peaking about now) but then what?
ReplyDeleteAlso does anyone else feel like that southerly dip in the jet stream has been huge this winter? Any thoughts about why this is the case are welcome.
We got our measly trace of snow today. This winter sucks for Rochester and has been a blockbuster, once again, on the East Coast. Another storm next week we will miss.
ReplyDeleteSeriously people, STOP with the whining. Yes, the east coast is in a pattern in which they are getting the major snowstorms. WE GET IT. Please get over it, and let's just discuss the weather and the patterns rather than characterize the storms in NYC as if it's some force purposely out to get us. We know the east is getting storms, and missing us. We know...
ReplyDeleteBring on spring and warm weather. Bring on baseball.
ReplyDeleteAgain way to much negativity on the blog. The storm for next Tuesday-Weds. Time frame again is not set on track and will not be until Sunday-Monday. In fact several models show unusual early consisitency and they are showing we could be in the path of this one. However, I understand the skepticism and we all feel it will go east. But, lets get some positive vibes that we get a storm mid week. I am again going to stay positive and hope!
ReplyDeleteYou got it, Henry. This is the first time all winter long where I think we can officially get excited about a potential synoptic snowstorm next week. As you pointed out, there is remarkable agreement between the GFS and euro on a track that would be favorable for significant snow in WNY. Also, this would make sense from a climatological standpoint as the AO is finally trending less negative, which will allow more storms to track farther north. This one definitely bears watching. It's not like the others.
ReplyDeleteI should also point out that the GFS and Euro aren't the only ones giving WNY a snowstorm next week. The Navy NOGAPS model also has WNY getting slammed by snow. A pattern change is lurking, folks.
ReplyDeleteHi Guy's! I thought I would POP in and say hello. I had been avoiding the blog after I made the mistake of posting about Nashville's snow last week. You would have thought I had kicked some bloggers dogs or something! I know better than to bring up any topics now. We have a nice light snow falling this morning that I am enjoying. Henry & DK, I will keep on the positive side as always and hopefully, we will have us a snow storm soon. Take care.
ReplyDeleteI like the talk about keeping it more positive and about the weather today. if you want to complain, go somewhere else....you just sound like a whiny baby who wants candy in the checkout line. Can someone paste a URl that shows the models you folks are looking at? the site i found only went out like 3 days in advance, so i can't tell how you guys are seeing what will happen next week. Seems like some local meteorologist have decided not to mention anything, and some have hinted at the potential for some snow next week. They are smart not to talk about it with too much enthusiasm yet.
ReplyDeleteThis frame depicts Wednesday evening of next week:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_144m.gif
Definitley our best chance yet for synoptic snow! Don't wanna jinx us, but as DK snd Henry pointed out, the models are unusually consistent and to be honest, all the right parameters are in place for the area of low pressure to for once track inland. Cross your fingers on this one, it looks to be an exciting next couple of days.
ReplyDeleteDK, thanks for the link. I know that this is next week, but lets pretend it was happening tomorrow. it looks like the center is still decently south east of us. we were just on the edge of the darker green which would be a half inch of precip. Would we end up getting decent snow if that very image played out? again, i know this is very far out and it will change.
ReplyDeleteIF this were happening tomorrow you'd see Winter Storm Warnings in effect for all of WNY. There would likely be a forecast of 6 to 12 inches across the entire area, with a foot of snow being the most likely across the finger lakes and middle Genesee Valley. Towns located within Livingston and Ontario counties would get the MOST snow this time, with a solid FOOT of SYNOPTIC snow being quite widespread anywhere south of route 5 & 20.
ReplyDeleteI should also point out that the 12z GFS is hot off the press, and it STILL has us getting impacted by the storm. This makes the 3rd straight run in a row that has us getting hit.
ReplyDeleteHang in there, this could be the real deal finally, guys!
And by the way, we don't want to be TOO deep into the darker greens to the south, because then we'd be closer to the warmer air, and would risk a mix with sleet that would keep accumulations down. We're in the sweet spot with the latest runs.
ReplyDeleteGotcha DK...so we don't want to be in the middle because that is where the warmer air is, that makes sense...so we probably aren't looking at a 24 inch+ snowfall here...i will take 6-12 anyday as long as we all get it. again i know this could change. I am worried that it will change in a few days...is the news 8 team just being cautious to jump on this too early? they aren't mentioning much in their forcasts. I don't blame them.
ReplyDeleteDK, Henry, Chris, Weatherguy: Regardless of what happens or doesn't, I'm always coming back to this blog! I may never post, but I'm always reading! Thanks for keeping it interesting!!
ReplyDeleteThere is some consistency with several models for a few runs in a row. That did not happen with the last few storms that hit the coast. So we will have to wait and see. I am curious as to what Scott thinks? He does not just use model runs he looks at many factors mainly weather climate. He has been on top of all the storms so what do you think Scott?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWhat's your take on next week?
Last night he had sunny and cold for Wednesday and Thursday. He said high pressure would supresss any storms from coming North. That is tha talk out of several NWS in the NE.
ReplyDeleteWe will see. We have been dissapointed all season so even though the models may agreee the system is still several days out. You know it will change.
ReplyDeleteWell the way it looks now, a ridge should build in from the south, bringing more normal temps back to the northeast and the jet stream to a more typical position. Also, a fairly deep trough is set to dip well south across the midwest. With the original piece of energy diving down from the upper northwest across the rockies, it will be able to ride down this trough, gather some decent moisture from the gulf, and ride right back up the jet, which looks to be favoring our position at this point. Since the ridge from the south will still be holding strong, this should lay the foundation for an inland storm track! FINALLY!!!!! Of course this is just a simplified explanation and we are still about a week away, but hey, the parameters are all there!!!
ReplyDeleteCURRENT TRACK OF
ReplyDeleteTHE SURFACE LOW WOULD BRING THE AXIS OF THE MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ALONG THE STREGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BULLSEYE MAY EVEN BE
IN THE BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
3 DAYS OUT...CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
RATHER HIGH DUE TO STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR
A WATCH...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVILY WORDED HWO.
Substantial Snow is coming!!!!!!!!
ReplyDelete