HASN'T ANYONE LEARNED A LESSON?
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Some of you have been asking questions regarding Joe Bastardi's scary forecast for late next week. Taking him seriously is like believing Egypt television recently. Just a bunch of BS if you ask me. I've decided to no longer speculate at all about storms or provide my opinion no sooner than 48 hours before the expected storm. I won't be part of it any longer, sorry. If no one learned from the last storm then they never will!!!
Feel free to wildly predict all you want, I will only be a spectator. Have a great weekend!
I understand JB and sites like accuweather hype things to get people to their site etc, but if there is no validity to what he is saying, what is in it for him? he looks like an idiot if there is no storm and people don't trust him. Either he knows something we don't, or he is just doesn't mind being wrong all the time. i don't get it.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I do agree with scott, but honestly, if the storm does pan out, its not going to effect our neck of the woods, its just been that kind of pattern. I don't mean to sound like andrew, but unless things drastically change, its unfortunately going to be another miss for us.
ReplyDeleteWay to be a professional Scott, give up your man card. The last miss gave me 8.5 inches in North Gates so it was a pretty decent snowfall IMO.
ReplyDeleteIf your going to wait to 48hours out, whats the fun in forecasting. I can look outside at 3pm and have a good guess whats going to happen at 5pm.
ReplyDeletePeople, i'm sure he will weigh in on the subject before 48 hours... He has to, its his job! Especially if its going to be an epic event, but the way it looks now, were going to miss it once again!
ReplyDeleteBack from hibernation! Why does I do not want to be like Andrew because Andrew is right? You are all just hopeless wish casters. Even The Great Hetsko has giving up on the wish casting and people not learning a lesson. He is done with all of you forget it I told you yesterday, even before The Greta Hetsko, there will be no BIG storm the rest of the winter we just dodged our one chance hello wake up people! Back to Hibernation!
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to agree with Andrew (god, I can't believe I just said that).
ReplyDeletefrom the sentence structure looks like Andrew started happy hour early this week.
ReplyDeleteLike I said earlier, I didn't buy into what JB was saying, I just wanted to know what he was seeing to make such a drastic prediction. Afterall, his statements today top all other hype that he has dished out before. I mean, c'mon, he's likening next week to the aftermath of a nuclear bomb. Obviously, i'm not seeing it, and still don't. You want to talk about living by model runs...that man does. He should know better. At least us on this blog are just weather enthusiasts. This guy actually bears some responsibility to the public.
ReplyDeleteOK, Scott. Here's a question within 48 hours. Since the National Weather Service is clueless on what will happen beginning Saturday night (they note that it might not snow at all, or we could have up to 5 inches), what is your take on tomorrow night? Are you going the little to no snow route, or the 3-5 inches route? Or a blend in between?
ReplyDeleteI don't wish cast buddy. If you continue to come on here and beat up everyone else having a good time, I'll just take your posts offline. This is a forum for fun and interesting weather talk. Our department doesn't spend all the time it takes in building this blog so it can be mocked by anyone.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
As for tomorrow night, at most 1-3" for Rochster but up to 4-5" in Central NY
ReplyDeleteScott
THANK YOU SCOTT. This Andrew fella needs to take an extended "hibernation" from this blog! He is mean spirited. The rest of us just try to have fun. We may get carried away with the models like kids, but we all love weather and just want to enjoy it all.
ReplyDeleteI can understand how hard it is to even say a storm threat is coming after what mother nature has swung us this past week. I admit I got caught up in the hype as our family LOVES snow..we have a snowmobile and love taking the kids sledding or just playing on the huge piles and of coarse, my girls are praying for at least ONE snow day this year...our school was one of the few that DIDN'T close on Wed.
ReplyDeleteI just started reading these blogs when I heard about the potential snowstorm that never was, and now I'm HOOKED! Thank god I have the power to ignore some (particularly ones with big heads).
I'm not giving up hope that we will get a good storm before the season is over..we always seem to get at least one in Feb. or March. If we don't, we don't...but until then, I'll keep hoping and coming here to get input.
And Scott, my husband and I really enjoy your enthusiasm and watching you on the Fox news at 10...we laugh and find you genuine!!
Ginger
Ginger- what school was it that didn't close i thought all schools closed?
ReplyDeleteWayland-Cohocton...we are from the southerntier (not far from Dansville).
ReplyDeleteGinger
Back from hibernation! It seems everyone is offended by my information and posts. Thus, I have decided as all of you wish to go into hibernation for good. Good luck with your storms. The Great Hetsko I never said you were a wish caster many on the blog are. You are the best in Rochester by far and good luck.They should give you a raise. Back in hibernation for good!
ReplyDeleteHOORRAAAYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteDK said...
ReplyDeleteLike I said earlier, I didn't buy into what JB was saying, I just wanted to know what he was seeing to make such a drastic prediction. Afterall, his statements today top all other hype that he has dished out before. I mean, c'mon, he's likening next week to the aftermath of a nuclear bomb. Obviously, i'm not seeing it, and still don't. You want to talk about living by model runs...that man does. He should know better. At least us on this blog are just weather enthusiasts. This guy actually bears some responsibility to the public.
No he doesn't, his responsibility is to get all the subscriptions to Accuweather that he can drum up. Hype is a huge part of that, and it is especially effective this year after what everyone has been through. There was a big shift in the "news" business about 35 years ago (why Cronkite gave it up) from reporting to prodding and/or making it.
It's a show and Bastardi is very, very good at it.
Scott, I never said thanks for the great work on this last bust. You actually saved me time as soon as you called the storm a bust. It saved me gas and time on 4 driveways that I didn't have to do! No doubt, you get your most accurate award again from this one. JB is full of $hit. Nothing in the works that I can see.
ReplyDeleteAndrew said...
ReplyDelete"Back from hibernation! It seems everyone is offended by my information and posts. Thus, I have decided as all of you wish to go into hibernation for good. Good luck with your storms. The Great Hetsko I never said you were a wish caster many on the blog are. You are the best in Rochester by far and good luck.They should give you a raise. Back in hibernation for good!"
It's not what you say...but HOW you say it.
With storms who knows at this point...I wish more ppl could be honest like Scott and just say theres no way to know right now. Potential is there but that's all you should be able to say as a professional and even that should be done with care...the cold however I think is more definite and very impressive. It's kind of unfortunate that most people on this blog care about snow and just snow - synoptic, of course, because lake effect isn't "real" to those snow-lovers. I think weather extremes, wind, temperature and the like, are very interesting and I'm waiting to see how next week pans out with regards to temps, storm or no. At least we can trust that if the storm materializes, news 8 won't be hyping up it's effect on the Roc area beforehand...and drunk Andrew won't be chiming in :)
ReplyDeleteFor those who are interested, check out surface temps 12z for Feb 11
ReplyDeleteJo-Sef can you just tell us what those are for the 11th?
ReplyDeleteI DO FEEL THAT THIS BLOG IS FOR SPECULATION AND FUN FOR TRACKING STORMS THAT DO APPEAR ON THE MODELS. BUT IT FEELS LIKE PEOPLE DID SOMETHING WRONG ARE WERE CHASTISED BY DAD WITH SCOTT'S POST. DOES SCOTT WANT PEOPLE TO JUST WAIT UNTIL 48 HOURS BEFORE A STROM TO COMMENT. I AM SORRY BUT FELT THE STORY TO START THIS DIALOUGUE WAS UNPROFESSIONAL AND NOT CALLED FOR BY SCOTT. PEOPLE DID LEARN FROM THE LAST STORM BUT WE ENJOY LOOKING AND HOPING A STROM MAY BE COMING.
ReplyDeleteI just read the NWS out of Binghampton and their update states that the little storm tomorrow is moving much further west according to the latest Nam stating that a mix of rain and snow in central NY. Would this not put Western, NY more in line with more than 1-3 now.
ReplyDeleteTalk out of Albany:
ReplyDeleteLATEST NAM BRINGS WARMER AIR INTO THE PICTURE...AT THE SURFACE...BUT MORE SO ALOFT...INDICATING AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER SNOW AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT. IT ALSO LIFTS THE MAXIMUM PRECIP AREA MORE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH MORE QPF FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...ANDLESS FOR THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH AND EAST. THIS BIG CHANGE ONLY MEANS GREATER UNCERTAINTY...AND HAVE NOT ISSUED OR REVISED ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES ATTM. WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO A MORE UNIFORM SOLUTION.
I think we may get more than 1-3 inches from this.
ReplyDeleteIs there text of JB's forecast available? The video wasn't available on accuweather when I checked.
ReplyDeleteYep, the NAM is printing out a decent amount of precip for our area tomorrow evening into the night. Big question at to whether it is snow or a mix. IF it is snow, I would suspect that we would easily fall into Advisory criteria snowfall totals. Probably high end advisory even.
ReplyDeleteAs to the comment about JB where I was quoted....you are probably correct, Anonymous. Although I have to believe even JB would not want to be humiliated if he went on air with such a terribly overstated forecast. I may be wrong, though. Perhaps he sees it differently. As they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day. And even a blind squirrel stumbles upon a nut every once and awhile.
ReplyDeleteThe NAm is printing out over 8 inches of snow. This would be warning criteria, would it not.
ReplyDeleteWe may have a surprise snow event here if the NAM verifies.
ReplyDeleteWondering what Scott is feeling about this shift?
ReplyDeleteI did not see his 10 pm show. Maybe he has not seen he new NAM. I will be interested to see what the new GFS shows.
ReplyDeleteI believe the Oz GFS looks similar to the latest NAM run tonight?
ReplyDeleteLooks like a solid 4 to 6 inches from late afternoon to late evening for Rochester.
ReplyDeleteHey DK, it looks like the Nam is printing out a little more than that dont you think. I wonder when the NWS will catch on and issue possible watches.
ReplyDeleteThe 0z GFS is right on with the oz Nam.
ReplyDeleteCould it be? A storm that looked small might end up being bigger than the the storm we missed this week.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing that could limit total potential accumulation would be the fact that the snow should be quite wet with temps within a few degrees of freezing. But with that said, this will be real stuff - NO fluff. 4-6 inches of dense snow is pretty good.
ReplyDeleteAnon -
ReplyDeleteThe temps I was referring to are for the majority of the country - generally very low - not for us specifically, so I'm not sure what temps you would like to see posted (it will be bitter cold for us too, but we're used to that). Negative temps all the way down to states such as oklahoma, mississippi, etc. at some points.
Channel 10 just cought on. Sorry, I was watching to see if anyone caught on and Kevin did.
ReplyDeleteWhat did he say?
ReplyDeleteA moderate event. I just heard Scott and he still says a little light snow for some.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like a light amt of snow, nothing big. Might be a mix to start off
ReplyDeleteThere ya go, 2-4 from the great Hetsko.
ReplyDelete3-6 channel 8, 3-6 channel 13. We will see.
ReplyDeleteI think 2-4 is a little low, but I am not a meteorologist
ReplyDeleteThey may all be hesitant in going over the 6" mark after what happened last week.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteThere ya go, 2-4 from the great Hetsko.
Andrew are you sneaking back in??
Can't help yourself?
Definitely sounds like an Andrew sentence to me.
ReplyDeleteI think that you guys need to cool it with the sarcastic, jerky remarks on here. Regardless of whether you like channel 8 or Scott or not, at least give Scott and his team credit for investing time on this blog. Why the need to muck it up with negativity and mean spirited remarks all the time? It's a weather blog, there's no need for passive aggressive hostility. Let's just keep the topic to friendly weather chat.
Like I said a few days ago I had a feeling we would get more snow than originally thought.
ReplyDelete"2-4 the great hetsko"
ReplyDeleteI did steal that from Andrew I guess, I saw Scott use it on a blog earlier in the week, and it's kinda catchy.
There are people and businesses that do rely on long range forecasting, and even though it's far from a perfect science, it can give them the possibilities of future bad weather. Joe Bastardi is in the business of long range forecasting, and I don't think he's lacking in clients. Let's face it, all of the local forecasters had large snowfall predictions, until hours before the storm started. Scott called it that night also, just a little sooner, and he deserves credit of course. I commend all of our forecasters, for doing a great job, at one of the hardest jobs to get right, but to get gun shy, until the last minute could also get critisism, as opposed to another forecaster, who called it right earlier.
ReplyDeleteI remember back in the 1970's, maybe 1978, there was a blizzard forecast to slam into Rochester. It was supposed to be the blizzard of all blizzards, and the whole city, sent their workers home early in anticipation. The storm made a left turn near Buffalo and into Canada, and we got nothing, and the local meteorologists took a lot of heat, but I'll bet they would have taken a lot more heat, had the storm hit, and they didn't give a warning. By the way, I do remember Accu Weather, who one of our radio stations was using as a forecasting service, saying that the blizzard was not going to hit us, hours before local forecasters did. I'm not a meteorologist, but kind of a weather buff, and I've been around long enough to know that sometimes a gut feeling and experience wins the day, but sometimes it doesn't. Being right on one big storm, doesn't make any meteorologist any smarter than the next. All of our local meteorologists are excellent, and do their best for our community.
ReplyDelete