A LITTLE GUESSING GAME FOR YOU
Written By: Scott Hetsko
We've got a lot of Winter season to go but you'll recall that last March was a real dud! Only a trace of snow fell after that final late February snowstorm. So my quiz for you is to guess how much snow will fall the rest of Winter in Rochester.
We have 93.6" as of today and I'd like to see what everyone is thinking for the rest of Winter just for fun. You can put me down for (B). I don't know if we've got a big snow in the cards this Winter.
i think B for me just as a guess!!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna go with (C). Although it seems like winter is going to follow in last year's path, I have a feeling that it is just faking us out this time around. Based on the historical data of March during la nina winters that I posted earlier, I have to go with what appears to be a trend, and estimate about 20" for March, with perhaps another couple inches in early April. I think somewhere between 115-125 will be the total snowfall for Rochester when all is said and done. Again, I would remind everybody that the blizzard of '99 which dumped 40" of snow in a week in March in Rochester was during a vigorous La Nina. Not saying we'll get anything near that caliber, but I think a couple to perhaps several snow events is still out there.
ReplyDeleteAnythings is possible, DK! No one can forecast 40" of snow in 3 days so you never know!
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
aaah, that would be a fun one to experience again. That, or the blizzard of '66. I saw the piece channel 8 had on '66 a few years ago. You know a snowstorm is bad when it shuts down the New York State Thruway from Buffalo all the way to Albany.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteDo you think the Euro is out to lunch with its suppression of that low early next week well to our south?
BTW, I pick B. maybe one more decent snow then bye bye winter.
Not at all! Simply too early to know for sure where that storm will go. It may miss us entirely if the latest EURO is right.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
I pick B. I have no confidence that this winter will bring the big snow I want!!!! It sure would be nice to get a HUGE SNOWSTORM this year.
ReplyDeleteI'm going with C simply because mother nature will make up for last years excessively warm March!
ReplyDeleteI pick "A" because I don't see us getting another 15 inches. Looks like next weeks storm is already gonna miss us again. And if it doesn't it will prolly bring rain. Not a good sign if youre looking for a favorable pattern change for snow lovers
ReplyDeleteThat Blizzard of 66 piece is on Youtube. That was the best storm ever. We didn't have school for a week. Good times.
ReplyDeleteI'm going with C..and I going to say half of it is in one storm. Probably after a stretch of relatively warm weather in late March. Only scientific reasoning is that this winter hasn't gone as expected so far...and it would be exactly what most people wouldn't want.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be visiting a couple friends in Oswego Saturday. I heard that there might be lake effect out that way then. Does it sound like it could be bad? Should I plan on being stranded out there for a day or two?
What's this prediction of ICE on Monday? Looks ominous---get the generators ready type ice or what???
ReplyDeletewhose predicting ice? I haven't heard any local mets forecast that at all. You drinkin' the crap-u-weather cool-aid again?
ReplyDeleteI have mentioned the possibility but it is more likely that we'll be colder. Storm is 96 hours away for Monday, too early...too early...too early!
ReplyDeleteScott
I don't think you'll be stuck in Oswego for days but several inches of snow are possible there before high pressure moves in Saturday night.
ReplyDeleteScott
Sorry, Scott. I didn't see that part where you mentioned the ice possibility. My bad.
ReplyDeleteB is a slam dunk, but I'm going with C. We've had some pretty good snow storms in March, and think we're about due.
ReplyDeleteAL
Hey DK what is your update on that storm next Monday? It looks to me like latest models have it well south of us now. Just wondering what your take is on it?
ReplyDeleteNOAA discussion this morning...
ReplyDeleteSUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY HAS BEEN A PERIOD OF
GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH A VERY WIDE VARIETY OF
STORM TRACKS WHICH HAD A HUGE IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SURFACE AND ALOFT GIVEN THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT NOW...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
PUT US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH A DECENT SNOW EVENT FROM
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS ON THE FAST SIDE AND ECMWF
SLOW...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM IN THE MIDDLE. EVEN SO...THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE ONLY 6-8 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS...WILL BE VERY CAUTIOUS WITH THIS PERIOD AND ONLY GO WITH
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEVERAL MODEL ITERATIONS
IN A ROW WITH SIMILAR TRENDS GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
SEEN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
Interesting forecast discussion. That just about sums it up. Looks like the bulk of the precip will still be to our south as a pool ove VERY frigid air tries to nudge itself in just north of lake Ontario. Precip type looks to be all snow with this one, but i'm a little concerned about where that northern edge of the precip will setup. It's gonna be close.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go with A, because I think spring will be very early with plenty of sun-filled 60 degree days soon ahead. My method of prediction is wishful thinking, rather than scientific evidence. :) I love snow storms, but if it's not going to happen soon, give me spring!!
ReplyDeleteI choose "B" for up by 104 and "A" for everyone else. Hey. I've only lived here for 3 years. Don't get me wrong. I love love love snow and wild weather patterns. Snow is still a novelty to me. I hope that I'm wrong. I hate March here. It's yucky cold and brown ground.
ReplyDeleteWhere did you live before here, TP?
ReplyDeleteI lived in Georgia and then South Florida before moving here.
ReplyDeleteModel agreement as noted in the NWS forecast discussion has gone out the window with the 12z GFS run. It's right back to giving us mostly rain.
ReplyDeleteThe latest gfs HAS THE STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ReplyDeleteYou're looking at the wrong segment, Anonymous. That's the wave that comes after the first one that you're looking at. The one that may have any consequence on our area is the one beginning Sunday night:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif
I vote for A
ReplyDeletebring on Spring!!
Here is my gut feeling. I have already seen robins flying around, and I strongly believe in looking at the signs of nature.
ReplyDeleteI am going with A. This month is about over with, and for March, we will be lucky to receive 2-5 inches.
This Spring is going to be very tranquil, and my prediction for summer is going to be very dry and one of the hottest in recent memories.
I wouldn't be surprised that the Rochester area flirts with a few 100 degree days in late July.
Finally, water rationing will become the norm this summer.
For all of those who are skeptical with my thoughts, cut and past this into a word document, and open it back up in July :)
Hey anonymous, I like your insight. Will global warming be partially responsible for the 100 degree day and water rationing this summer? Just curious...
ReplyDelete100 is possible in Rochester, but it's quite difficult to hit for one reason: the lake breeze. Often times on hot summer days, Rochester hits its high around 1PM or 2PM and then the edge gets chopped off of the high temps thereafter as the winds shift out of the NE and the cooler lake breeze halts the temp from rising any further. Best shot of hitting 100 in Monroe county, in my opinion, is the town of henrietta. It's safely away from the strongest effects of the lake breeze, but is also not too removed from the lake so that the elevation starts to rise (such as out toward Honeoye Falls).
ReplyDeleteI should also add that, a very strong WSW'erly wind can funnel up the entire length of the cold waters of lake Erie and extend extend its cooling effect from the Niagara Frontier all the way to the the Rochester area. This is especially true early in the warm weather season. Lake Erie's "lake shadow" can also influence our region as well, and keep thunderstorms from firing up until they are well east of our region. More proof that our great lakes don't just effect us in the winter.
ReplyDeletedecent snow event still possible? we are going to be on the cold side. I say 10-25 inches for the rest of winter. The deer and wildlife had it rough around here.
ReplyDeleteI'm going for 'A' also-
ReplyDeleteIt seems that we have had such stady COLD for Dec, Jan and Feb-- that it has about worn out its welcome below the North Pole for this year--
Mack In Springwater
Monday appears like it will be nothing not a strong storm and we will get rain. I think we are going to have a March similar to last year and we will have an early spring.
ReplyDeleteI'm torn. I would love an early spring if it was persistent like last year. I remember basking in the 80's in early April last year. It was great. On the other hand, if we have a major snowstorm in store before the end of winter, i'd gladly take it. But no in between stuff. It's go big or go home.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteHere is my gut feeling. I have already seen robins flying around, and I strongly believe in looking at the signs of nature.
I am going with A. This month is about over with, and for March, we will be lucky to receive 2-5 inches.
This Spring is going to be very tranquil, and my prediction for summer is going to be very dry and one of the hottest in recent memories.
I wouldn't be surprised that the Rochester area flirts with a few 100 degree days in late July.
Finally, water rationing will become the norm this summer.
For all of those who are skeptical with my thoughts, cut and paste this into a word document, and open it back up in July :)
Beautiful dreamer da da da da
Here's my prediction---wet, wet and more wet. Just like last year. It's getting worse.
3 Storms coming just next week. Definitely C, no question.
ReplyDelete