REMEMBER THAT FISHY SMELL I WAS TELLING YOU ABOUT?
Written By: Scott Hetsko
(9:30 PM TUESDAY UPDATE)
Forget 10-14" snow. The air is too warm aloft and the track of that low is further West so after a burst of overnight snow, sleet and freezing rain will be the order of the morning.
Roads will still be slick with snow and ice coverage but another unfortunate turn for snow lovers. My collegues might disagree with me so we'll see if I need to wear a bag over my head tomorrow evening. :)
The following is from an anonymous Buffalo NWS employee sent to a neighboring viewing area weather blog at 9:40 PM Tue:
ReplyDelete"Believe it or not, but I think this is working out well so far. Looking at the forecast soundings for the Jamestown area using the 18Z NAM data on BUFKIT, the initial onset should indeed be freezing rain as there is a rather strong inversion near the surface and little moisture aloft. Then, as the atmosphere continues to moisten higher up and stronger lift moves in, it should change over to snow for a time tonight before mixing with/changing back over to sleet/freezing rain later tonight as the infamous 0C 850mb line crosses the state line. The real heart of the storm (for Western NY at least) is still about 4 hours away from the SW corner of NY. That’s when things should get really interesting."
How much ice? power failures likely?
ReplyDeleteTHAT IS A BRAVE FORECAST
ReplyDeleteReally? A literal 11th hour change in your prediction? One would think that a forecast would be there to prepare your viewers for tomorrows weather, not a ploy for increasing your ratings in the 11pm news bracket. Thanks for that...
ReplyDeleteBack from hibernation!Can you say bust! All the haters I expect a little apology. Mr. Nuedorff I stated lucky if we get 6 inches and you acted like I was a moron so you can give a little bigger props. Warm air aloft not sure why all the wishcasters could not see it with the track as of 10:30 today from the GFS. Sorry for all you snow lovers and plowers.
ReplyDeleteC'mon guys, don't take your frustration by the weather out on Scott. He's just doing his job!
ReplyDeleteAndrew, you cannot take credit for this! You were being negative and nothing has even happened yet.
ReplyDeleteGo back to hibernation and don't come out til the storm is over and everything has unfolded, then you can talk... And scott, could this make our situation travel wise even worse for tomorrow???
We have moderate borderline heavy sleet falling down here in Sparta. I don't plan on much sleep tonight so I post throughout the night unless I just flat pass out.
ReplyDeleteIm not a weatherman or even know exactly how to read the models. I do however still feel that we will get around 10" min from this snow...maybe not in the city....as I am in Wayne County.
ReplyDeleteScott, that isn't snow down here in Dansville/Sparta. It is sleet and it is coming down hard too.
ReplyDeleteIm with Chris, I am going to post through out the night. This is still going to be an interesting event.
ReplyDeleteJeez- i hope n ice
ReplyDeletesorry meant no ice (SM)
ReplyDeletelight snow here in Canandaigua
ReplyDeleteScott did not say he thinks the snow numbers will be down he knows it is. A done deal and it does stink not sure why you guys would blog all night this is not interesting sleet is nothing we are going to get a wintry mix in the city that sucks.
ReplyDeleteScott, you called it yesterday when you said something was fishy w/ the storm. Interesting that the NWS just updated and are sticking w/ 10-15. I guess I'm sticking w/ them cause of the ruc and the nam. But everything on the ground is w/ you. Tough storm buddy! And yur right, if it goes west, BUST! But some of the models are still showing it just south of us. Tough call. Will yu really wear the bag? LOL RochesterDave
ReplyDeleteLatest GFS has the Low west of us Scott right a done deal. A big waste of time for this non storm all should go to bed!
ReplyDeleteIf it's already sleeting hard in the lower Genesee valley then I feel pretty good about my changes.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
You know it has been my experience in watching the weather predictors in Rochester that channel 8 seems to always be the closest. Even though they sometimes do have a error in their ways from time to time. Will you really wear a bag tomorrow if you are wrong :)
ReplyDeleteI will wear a bag if the bosses let me but I feel pretty good about my changes. I've had my doubts the entire time which is why we've had the lowest snow amounts forecasted the past few days.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
somebody's going to be hitting the "refresh" key on the lap top a lot tonight...
ReplyDeleteBUST, BUST, BUST. ANDREW SHOULD BE THE NEW METEOROLOGIST. HE CALLED IT FROM THE BEGINNING. SORRY CHANNEL 6, YOU WERE WRONG. YOU WENT FROM 18 INCHES, TO 10-14 AND NOW 4-7. THEY HAVE ALREADY CLOSED SCHOOLS FOR THIS NON-EVENT. AMAZING!!! BRING ON SPRING. GOOD JOB ANDREW.
ReplyDeleteI MEANT CHANNEL 8. GOING TO BED. THIS WINTER SUCKS.
ReplyDeleteSnow is starting to mix in and coming down at a good clip too. I will check in later when our infant gets hungry for her late night snack!
ReplyDeleteI will say this... Just took my dog for a walk and there is a stilness in the air. And orange sky. Why is it that when it is snowing the sky is orange? It's beautiful outside. Not sure who was wanting a thundersnow on this blog, but to you, I hope it happens.
ReplyDeleteLet it snow...
I90 from Buffalo to Rochester snow all the way, heavier from Batavia in.
ReplyDeleteThis is not a good forecast. Will we have ice build up, sleet or what? Should I get the generator ready? After 91 "ice" has a real bad ring to it and we are left hanging here with you guys all over the place.
ReplyDeleteAs for you snow lovers calling this a non event--how big a mess do you want? Ice all over everything is not a non event. As much as I hate snow 14" of that is better than 1/2" of ice.
Looking at the soundings, from 9Z to 12Z looks like a definite possibility for some sleet and maybe some freezing rain, but not too much. I feel heavy snow, especially along the lake shore is still a concern.
ReplyDeleteGood morning Andrew, I actually had to hibernate. Seeing it is 1:30 am and I am now getting up. Sorry I didn't respond to you on your time.
ReplyDeleteI will admit you are looking more right on this than last time. I was still tweaked about the last time when you said "lucky to get 2 inches" we got around 9 and you still claimed victory.
When this all done and verifies, if we get 6 inches or less I will tell you job well done. No worries. Like Scott, I can eat humble pie with the rest of them when I need to.
Still nothing but sleet down my way!
ReplyDeleteThis is a Bust. I will be the first one to say it. I know I was wrong. To Andrew - well played. I am sorry for my snarkiness.
ReplyDeleteChange over to sleet and freezing rain has occurred. Dry slot is working in no more than another 1 to 3 inches at best for the remainder of the day.
Roads will still remain slick in spots. Winter Storm Warning downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. I will have more in a later blog post. Getting my fork & knife ready for some humble pie. - Brian
Total bust. 3 inches in Gananda and now it is sleet. It us humble pie for all the local Meteorologitst. Kevin was saying 15 inches last night at 11 and channel 13 was still saying 9-15. All totally wrong. I tell you, it will be the talk of today how wrong all the meteorologists were in Rochester. I was hoping Andrew was wrong, but he has it nailed when no-one else did. Good job Andrew.
ReplyDeleteSChols closed for nothing. What a joke. We have had bigger clipper systems.
ReplyDeleteAbout 4 or 5 inches in Lyons when I took the dog out at 4 this morning. Still some sleet but not too bad. Looks like we dodged a bullet!?
ReplyDeleteA little snow system on Saturday could be bigger than this, although that looks to go east. This winter will go down in history as a miss after miss after miss and BIG BIG bust with this so called storm.
ReplyDeleteI know how many of you are feeling and I doubt many of you feel as bad as I do. Not only is it my job to make the forecast but I too am a snow lover.
ReplyDeleteI am sorry for what it is worth. I saw the data, I read the discussions and at the time we put out the best forecast we could. Although I mentioned on Monday that a few models were hinting at 20" I never NEVER made it part of the official forecast. But this sucks to the billionth degree.
I am ready to take my lumps over the forecast. At least you have a forum to express your feelings and let us know how you feel. You won't find that anywhere else in Rochester.
If you take the time to go over our forecast or watch our broadcast none of the three of us ever thought this would be a blizzard. Thank you all for your support and comments. -Brian
It is not your fault Brian. Storms will do what they will do. This one had a mind of its own. What are you going to do. Keep your chin up. Winter is almost over.
ReplyDeleteAndrew cannot take credit for this one!!! He was being negative on purpose and got lucky due to the serious amount of dry air that came into play and the redevelopment of the low. If he backed up his opinions with facts, then yes, i would say he nailed it, but truth is, he has no idea about weather
ReplyDeleteBack from hibernation! Kudos to Scott and I (ha ha) any chance to get a job? ha ha no just kidding however it is a great job. KW has a 5-15 inch range in his 11 forecast last night what a joke might as just say it may or may not snow. Disappointing from a guy who has 30 years of weather experience maybe he should spend less time saying there is no such thing as global warming or following SP. Well thank you for responding Brian but it is upseting how so many were angry at me including that teacher does she not teach the constitution and understand freedom of speeech. You guys do a great job and are still Rochester's most accurate. We will not get a big snow storm this year the weather climate is not in the cards maybe next winter that will change. Where are all the boys? DK, Chris, David and Henry W. very very quiet you rabbits. Back to hibernation for the rest of this boring winter!
ReplyDeleteBack anonymous the 12z GFS (most accurate model) showed this was trending NW yesterday. Was not that difficult to figure out that a mix was going to happen and not heavy snow. Anything west of us will not produce heavy snow for us in western NY. Sorry the truth hurts. Back to hibernation!
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember the headline from Scott's post several days ago? : "Don't Get Too Excited Just Yet". Right on, again. Most accurate forecast in town. Well done, gentlemen.
ReplyDeleteA comment from me:
ReplyDeleteAll the other stations were still hyping the storm at 11 PM. You guys were the only ones to call it as having far less of an impact than the other stations. So kudos to you.
I watch channel 10 news usually, but I can't STAND the hype that their weather guys give. And if I hear Josh saying one more time "from hilltop to lakeshore" I am going to scream. Every time it is going to snow they come at us like it is going to be the biggest snow of all time.
You guys don't do that.
Cheers to you, and thanks for all you do for us here in Rochester.
So, why did all the schools close?
ReplyDeleteIf they had watched your forecast, there would have been school yesterday.