STORM UPDATE: TUESDAY P.M. POST
Brian wrote such a fine blog that all I am doing is posting the final snowfall map for this storm. Notice a little more detail on who we think will get what. Still 10-14" for many but ice and dry slot will knock down total snowfall South of the Thruway.
Brian's post follows below:
This is an impressive storm. This morning Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport closed due to an ice storm. Oklahoma City is experiencing a blizzard. Nine states are under a blizzard warning and from New Mexico all the way through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Maine are under Winter Storm Warnings including us here in western New York.
You can find our snow forecast in Scott's post from late last night. Snow amounts from roughly the thruway north into Rochester could see 10 to 14 inches. As you go south, warmer air will work into the mid layers of the atmosphere. This will cause a wintry mix of snow, sleet and maybe some near NY/PA border will see freezing rain.
How do we decide where a "wintry mix" will fall? The images below are from the 850 level as well as a cross section of temperatures for Rochester... The first two come from the NAM's 6z run the last two are the GFS from the 6z run.
The maps are showing the location of the 850 mb low at 12z or 8am tomorrow morning. You can see that the 0 degree isotherm (this is where you would see precipitation initially fall as rain located close to the NY/PA border.
Here in Rochester the 850 temperature ranges from -4 to -5 that is why we think it is mainly snow, but as you go farther south we see more above 0 isotherms and this is why we brought back the mention of ice, sleet and maybe freezing rain into the Southern Tier.
A lot of this forecast like many big storms are based on past experiences. We look back and ask, "The last few times I have scene this scenario what happened, what went right what went wrong?" I can tell you, like many of you coming off vacation got excited about the storm. I let the numbers and my personal desire for a big snow overtake my rational thought, to a point.
I was the one mentioning 20 inches from what I was seeing printed out yesterday afternoon, but if you recall I left my official forecast at 10 to 15 inches. I am glad I did.
If we see something new from the newest runs and if it seems to follow the overall trend we will let you know if we make any changes.
I see that southern Michigan has upgraded to a blizzard warning and the discussion states the winds will be higher then orginally predicted. Do you see any change in the winds for us that will approach blizzard criteria?
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteWhy doesn't the NWS make mention of any mix happening even for the northern finger lakes?
Hey, Scott and friends.
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping your heads on here. Whatever happens, you guys are no-hype, just the facts, and I appreciate it a great deal. Channel 10 is predicting 22 inches, blah blah, the end of the world is coming. So enjoy the storm, whatever it may bring, however many inches.
Well Here is what I see for Seneca Falls from the National Weather Service:
ReplyDeleteSNOW. SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
Now why don't they for Geneva or Canandaigua? Probably cause of how close they are to the Thruway. It will be close for those northern Finger Lake communities. It could be all snow or some brief wintry mix.
Farther south the more likely you are to have ice/sleet. -Brian
Brian is it to early to give a reasonable assessment as to where you think the dry slot will set up?? also the last part of your story says quote "If we something new from the newest runs and if it seems to follow the overall trend we will let you know if we make any changes." Does that mean that if the latest trends are coming to fruition with your original thinking..that the amounts will have to be adjusted slightly HIGHER... thanxs what a great storm from a meteorological perspective..keep up the work
ReplyDeletei HOPE CHANNEL 10 IS RIGHT ON THE 22 INCHES.
ReplyDeleteHow can you have 6" to 12" and then 10" to 14"?
ReplyDeleteShouldn't that be 6" to 10" and 10" to 14"?
"How can you have 6" to 12" and then 10" to 14"?
ReplyDeleteShouldn't that be 6" to 10" and 10" to 14"? "
Easy the boundaries are not define but more blurred. We expect that amounts near our boundaries to vary. -Brian
I mention that because a forecast can change. If there is substantial data that would warrant a change in forecast or number we would make it so we give the viewers and all of you the best information. -Brian
ReplyDeleteLooking like this LP is tracking way south over Syracuse not sure if that is good we may get a bix mix that is acording to the 12z GFS?
ReplyDeleteWhere are you DK not liking the trend on all models moving this low way north. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteI think it's not looking good. The two things that could have kept snowfall totals down look to indeed happen. We're going to get dry slotted by mid morning tomorrow...AND before that the snow may mix or changeover to sleet which would contribute nothing to the snowfall total (if anything, it could compact our snowpack down more). Meanwhile a raging blizzard will slam locations just to our west. Looks like we'll be spectators to the big storm again.
ReplyDeleteC'mon guys, did you think the snow dome that has been over us for years now was going to let us get away with a big snowstorm?
ReplyDeleteBy just to the west, do you mean Niagara Falls and Buffalo, DK?
ReplyDeleteTypical. We will see what happens. Nothing we can do about it.
ReplyDeleteOntario Canada and Detroit for the blizzard.
ReplyDeleteDK - no one was ever calling for a Blizzard here, at least not this weather department. Winds, blowing and drifting snow will occur. I still feel good about double digit amounts for Rochester. I am sticking with our 10-14 for now. I also expect areas south of the NY Thruway to see a wintry mix.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update, Brian. I think i'm just a little frustrated that the mix line is getting so close to our area. I was hoping by now it would be a lock that ALL snow would happen, but now if that line shifts just a tiny bit, we could get a surprise episode of sleet to squash our snowfall totals. Seems like forecasting storms is never easy around here. I admire what you guys do, but it's days like this where i'm glad i'm not in your shoes. I'd be pulling my hair out. Keep up the great work. We really appreciate the time you all put into this blog.
ReplyDeleteJust once I would like it if you were wrong in our favor. Never happens.
ReplyDeleteI hope you guys are still right about double digit amount of snow in ROC. I'm going to be cautious about being excited. I've been disappointed too many times, by storms that fizzle out or turn at the last minute, in my 40 plus years here.
ReplyDeleteWhen is the next significant models due that could impact the forecast?
AL
By tonight everyone will be lowering the snow totals for us. The models are shifting this storm further West and North. Not good for us.
ReplyDeleteMy how the mood has changed... Look, we're still going to have AT LEAST 10" more snow on the ground tomorrow than we have today. And that alone makes me :)
ReplyDeleteHow do you figure at least 10 more inches? The mood has changed because it looks like we won't get 10 more inches. Maybe much less. Everything is shifting north...
ReplyDeleteI have one request, can we at least get through one storm before we move on to the next system? LOL It is amazing how quickly the tone in here has changed in 24 hours.
ReplyDeleteAs I look at what I am seeing in the 12Z runs it appears more in line with what Scott was saying last night. Of course he will have more later this evening.
Sorry, most of us will not be satisfied until we get the BIG one. This was looking like the BIG one for awhile, but the storm track has changed taking the heaviest west. It is either South and East, West or north. We always miss. 10" is nothing for us, nothing.
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteWhich part about what Scott was saying?
BREAKING NEWS FROM CHANNEL 10:
ReplyDeleteCaptain Josh Nichols predicts life-ending, nose-numbing, toe-tapping, blizzard to end all blizzards from hilltop to lakeshore!
Snow totals in excess of 3 feet....
And now here is Lia Lando at Pittsford Wegmans to show us the lines of people fighting over milk and eggs.
Lady 1: Mine! All mine! I have to feed my children.
Lady 2: What are you so worried about?
Lady 1: Channel 10 said there is a BLIZZARD (wind sound effects here) coming and we will be locked up for days.
Lady 2: Well, I watch Channel 8. It just ain't happening, lady.
(Lady 1 puts down milk. Picks up copy of People magazine.)
Lia Lando: Well there you have it, folks.
some people need to be more grateful. that's all. be grateful for the snow you do get. if you really 'love' snow, then be happy with every flake that falls from the sky.
ReplyDeleteCome on. Did Josh say that on the noon news. In access of 3ft? Blizzard? Did he look at the models? Are you just kidding us?
ReplyDeleteI love these snow total ranges. CHannel 13 has 9-15. Who gets the 9 and who gets the 15? Channel 10 still has 15-22, but they did say the highest total will be closer to the lake. Channle 8 has 10-14 a much better range. It can be very confusing to the average Joe to see all these different snow totals come out.
ReplyDeleteI am going to guess 11-17 inches .... this is the average of those 3 combined LOL
ReplyDeleteWHat happend to the 2-4 last night? That did not even materialize. I think I had no more that a half inch in Gananda.
ReplyDeleteI think the models will wobble around a little now. Time to start watching radar. North of the Thruway will see all snow, no doubt. Im done watching models, what will be, will be. Sick back, around 7pm turn on radar and see whats coming. I think Scott is still on Target, 10-14, maybe 18inch range north of 104 where its colder.
ReplyDeleteWell...look at it this way....they all agree it is going to snow.
ReplyDeleteChannel 10 will probably have some blurb tonight about a midweek storm for the 1st week in March based on their Super Computer Models.
Doug
"Im done watching models, what will be, will be." Isn't that always the case? ;)
ReplyDeleteExactly David. People need to stop watching the models. The storm has formed, it is all about nowcasting at this point.
ReplyDeleteBrian or Scott need to come in and talk people off the ledge.
haha yup Adam. My point is, an awesome storm is here. It will be here in less than 12hours. Im not going to analyze every shift in models, every degree change in Temp. every wind direction change. I will be out plowing and loving the 8,12,14,16,18+ of snow we get...
ReplyDeleteOh no! were not getting the 48" snowstorm that happens once every 100 years. Im gonna jump off my roof! ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't jump off the roof, might not be enough snow to catch you :)
ReplyDeleteAnd if it was 15 degrees colder out, people would be bitching about that dry, fluffy snow. All I want to see is thundersnow in the morning, that is cool.
ReplyDeleteUp here by the lake I have a solid 18" in my yard, if not more...
ReplyDeleteBREAKING NEWS FROM CHANNEL 10:
ReplyDeleteSTORM FORECAST FROM HILLTOP TO LAKESHORE FOR MARCH 4. MAJOR BLIZZARD PREDICTED ON THE 20th ANNIVERSARY OF THE GREAT ICE STORM.
FILM AT 11.
Its NOWCAST time people stop looking at models and man your radars and satellites. This storm looks beautiful. Double digits for rochester, sit back and enjoy the show. BTW heres a cool site to view it www.simuawips.com
ReplyDeleteBetter Idea, Wake up Thursday and stick the tape in your yards and BAM, you will know how much snow you got!! David, were you out plowing this morning?
ReplyDeleteHa Ha, Kodak just came out with a weather alert for us to make sure we bring a shovel and a blanket and for us to get our butts in here tomorrow! They didn't say stay home and be safe :(
ReplyDeleteThe storm is massive. However, it does appear that a good size dry slot will be developing by the time the storm reaches us.
ReplyDeleteNo plowing this morning, had a meeting with my tax adviser and accountant. Im contemplating taking a bowling ball tied to a chain and walking it off the pier.
ReplyDeleteIm going to go outside and lay in the snow facedown tomorrow, if part of my body hits the grass, ill know we got 18" on snow.
Here in West Bloomfield we woke up to @least 4 inches of snow. So some places did get the 2-4 they were predicting.
ReplyDeleteBtw..Super excited about this storm. Even if its not an all out blizzard its one of the biggest snow amounts my area has seen all winter long. Maybe my kids will actually have a snow day tomorrow. They have been wishing for one all winter long!
Message from God:
ReplyDeleteStorm cancelled.
Have a nice day.
Attention: Maggie Brooks has stated no unnecessary travel for the coming storm. (really)
ReplyDeletePrediction: All schools will close, except for Greece Central. They had a hokey snow day last week because it was too cold for the kiddos.
where did it say that Maggie brooks said that???
ReplyDeletehey scott! I'm getting super concerned w/ the 850 0 line for tomorrow am. RUC has it on the thruway and pattern recognition suggests this baby might just turn into the bane of all snow lovers= SLEET! I hope that the 18z models dont continue their insidious march north and west. RochesterDave (Irondequoit)
ReplyDeletenoaa has an awesome cloud layer photo of storm...check it out!
ReplyDeletewhat website is it on????
ReplyDeleteWhen would the dry slot happen?
ReplyDeletenever mind i found the picture it is so cool!!
ReplyDeletelink?
ReplyDeleteHa ha I am briefly back from hibernation. You wishcasters DK, Chris, David and Henry W. once again are off target. Another disappointment going on a different track lucky if we get 6 inches. Remember DK yesterday guaranteed we were 36 hours out from the storm a lock twenty inches ha ha you guys are so funny get up early and see the light snow. Back to hibernation and wait to see the next wishcast so they can whine and be let down ha ha ha ha
ReplyDeletenvm i got it too. should have googled first. that is awesome. also that simuawips website kicks ass
ReplyDeleteLOL @ Anonymous' 2:08 comment. Best post ever. I think God is up there laughing hysterically at our feeble attempts to understand his creation.
ReplyDeletezzzzzzzzzzzzzz
ReplyDelete10-14", should be no big deal for us, probably a long morning commute tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteMy question is - when will it melt?
how do you go from 10-14 to 3-6 in buffalo...i mean granted the dry slot and maybe sleet..but that lowered amount.. kinda bummmed out:( gimme some hope guys haha
ReplyDeleteAndrew I hope you don't hibernate I have a challenge for you. From all I have seen there is NOTHING to support your "Lucky to get 6 inches"
ReplyDeleteI have a few questions.
What is the basis for your forecast? Hey I might learn something I mean meteorology is the study of weather. Always game to learn new things.
Who will be lucky to get 6 inches? Western NY is a large area I don't want to see Rochester get 10 inches and you were talking about a different location or maybe even a different Rochester.
I think the others would be very interested in hearing the whys of your prediction.
Brian... HOw do you think Buffalo will fair?? with amounts... i mean i guess what im sayin is..do you think the sleet line will approach this far north into Buffalo...thanks for opinion
ReplyDeletecan't anyone post a link to this great noaa photo?
ReplyDeletehttp://nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=640&MediaTypeID=1
ReplyDeleteClick to get it even larger :)
Scott and Brian,
ReplyDeleteLet me just say, you two are doing one heck of an excellent job on keeping us updated on this storm while not hyping anything. True professionals!
Thanks again
Here's the image found it on the NOAA website...
ReplyDeletehttp://nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=640&MediaTypeID=1
Brian back from hibernation the data shows the 850 line clearly shaky and possibly not below O for the Rochester metro area on the latest NAM and GFS. We will mix in a good deal of sleet (wintry mix) during the event yes in the metro. 6-8 a good bet in the metro by noon tomorrow. Hey I am not the one who hinted at 20 plus yesterday. You and the so called non weather expert bloggers had this a BIG BIG storm yesterday and a lock! Now all of you are back peddeling faster than a DB covering a rocket. You look at the 18Z coming at 4:30 and tell me if you will be adjusting your totals down again. I believe I was a tad correct the last time we had a little snow the only thing that saved you was wrap around lake enhancement. Time will tell again! Where are the other wishcasters quiet from Chris, Henry, DK and David oh maybe they are crying over their plow now that it will not be as much money for them. back to hibernation!
ReplyDeleteWe are so starved for a snowstorm that I have not seen this much hype and excitement for what now looks like 10 inches if we are lucky. But that is what happens when you get one synoptic snowstorm a year.
ReplyDeleteYesterday, I said this was all hype. The way it looks now, even 10 inches might be over doing it.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the National Radar, it looks as this storm might be shifting. I am afraid we might see more sleet and freezing rain than anything else. I would rather have all snow. Freezing rain is not good.
NWS just in. said 10-15 inches.. RElax guys..this is going to be a great storm
ReplyDeleteBut Andrew, Brian made a good point... it's all relative to where you are. I'm in Greece, only a few miles from the lake, so I'm still expecting to get 10"+. If you're south of the thruway, yea sorry, you're probably not getting much anymore...
ReplyDeleteLet's face it guys. We are not going to get the storm we all wanted. Not going to happen. it is very rare. This is the first blizzard CHicago and Michigan has seen in years. They were do. We are do, but not going to happen with this one. It looked good yesterday, but it all changed today. WHat are you going to do. I am very dissappointed, but there is worse things in life. I am not going to get excited until the snow actually falls and is on the ground. That is the way it is in Rochester. We do not get BIG storms anymore. We are always spectators.
ReplyDeleteThey really cut down totals in Michigan as well. They are also talking about the dry slot.
ReplyDeleteI am more worried about ice. I am in Ontario county and the more I look, the more potential I see for rain, which will fall as rain and then land as sheets of ice. Do you not remember the crazy ice storm? Scott and weather team, do you see this freezing rain as an ice storm threat?
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting the link to NOAA pic, I didn't think I could post links here. Well looks like text is ok, but no HTTP. Yeah there's a HI REZ photo there too...thanks people!
ReplyDelete(person who first wrote about it)
My question is based on an observation as non-expert, so be patient.... when I look at the national radar, it looks like the whole storm is moving such that the pink and green areas of the radar will be on track to be over ROC by the time it gets here. What will keep this from moving in as all rain or purely sleet/freezing rain?
ReplyDeleteThanks
AL
Back from hibernation! It will turn to sleet for a good deal of the storm. The dry spot will impact the metro too. KW has even backed off and given the disclaimer about sleet can bring the totals way down. Where is Brian I responded to his post. You know the funny thing is that models and track are usually always solid a day in advance of those east coast storms. I guess we have a black cloud ha ha over us. We can figure it out 5 hours in advance. Is DK, Chris, Henry, or David still out there? Back to hibernation!
ReplyDeleteBoy it's amazing how this guy Andrew knows everything! It clearly is so easy to forecast this type of weather when 10-15 miles can make the difference between heavy snow and sleet.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Andrew for your expert coverage on this upcoming storm and your guarantees about what will happen.
Scott Hetsko
Back from hibernation boy it is quiet on this blog for a BIG BIG storm coming? Also Mr. Neudorff the QPF amounts have dropped a great deal on the latest NAM and GFS. The storm is moving like a rocket and will be a dud. Back in hibernation waiting to hear from all the weather legends so they can explain and whine about why it happen.
ReplyDeleteoh you guys lol
ReplyDeleteAndrew = Loser
ReplyDeleteThere's an update to the photo NOAA. (same dude that posted about it)
ReplyDeletehttp://nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/641-173_MidWestSnow_20110201b.jpg
It's amazing how quick things change around here. Early last week if we were told there would be a solid 6-12 inches of synoptic snow everyone would have been happy as could be. But throw in a couple model runs that show higher amounts, then all of a sudden this is a bust when those don't pan out.
ReplyDeletewell said J
ReplyDeletebe late "the boss won't mind" .. but Scott I didn't ~want~ to go to work tomorrow! :)
ReplyDeleteCan't we just let the storm happen before we judge? We haven't gotten a flake or sleet pellet yet my friends!
ReplyDeleteScott
No school for Bloomfield tmr!!!!!! I cant believe they called it the night before, hasnt happened in years! My kids are jumping for joy :)
ReplyDeleteIf we get 12" at the airport so I have some work to do removing snow and 16" at Durand near my house so I can play this weekend I'll be very happy.
ReplyDeleteIt is a little funny how Bloomfield, Canandaigua, Penn Yan have all closed already for tomorrow and nothing from the city or county schools. Thought that southeast would have a higher liklihood for sleet than snow?
ReplyDeleteWell that's it! They canceled school so the storm will be a bust! :)
ReplyDeleteScott
Where are the usual bloggers? We need you guys do not let Andrew run you off. Brian a response please!
ReplyDeletelol Scott you're even more entertaining when mixed with large doses of sarcasm
ReplyDeleteWell Andrew I still stick by my 12-18 prediction in the city north with no sleet in the city. Guess we will have to wait and see.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott,
ReplyDeleteI've been keeping my eye on the radar, and by 7 7:30 it looks like the wall will be coming into NY. My question is the timing for the airport area, when do you think the "wall" will hit. The storm looks to be moving pretty well. Is the time frame moving up at all?
We're in the nowcast mode. I'm going to sit back and allow Scott to deliver his expertise. I may speculate when storms are days out, but not anymore for this one. It will be interesting to watch it develope and watch that mix/snow line. Scott and his team know best.
ReplyDeletethis andrew guy is something else. Dude, check the attitude. EVERY model was set in cement as recent as the 6z post w/ 1-1.5 of ALL snow for the Roc metro. What did you expect Scott et al to do? CALL GOD and ask if the models would trend 150 miles NW? Weather is fluid. Plus my friend. The lates mesoscale/ short term models are trending colder and SE the last few hrs. So if this thing comes to fruition, can we have a public site to slam you mercilessly? NO? Ok, we can use this one. lots of blogs have rules against guys like you. RochesterDave
ReplyDeleteScott that was priceless. Let's just see what this thing does eh? Either way, snow day tomorrow for me
ReplyDeleteBack from hibernation! Rochester Dave you can slam me but I am on record right now with no more than 8 inches in the Rochester metro. What is your forecast so you can not be one of those I told you so after the fact songs. Have some courage Lion to post your thougths before the event then you will have more credibility. Do not cop out like DK he is going to sit back and let Scott and the boys lead the way. He already was way off base yesterday with his no miss prediction and HEAVY HEAVY snow. So come on are you the lion, scarecrow or tin man Rochester Dave? Back in hibernation!
ReplyDeleteHey, Andrew take a hike buddy!!!!!!
ReplyDeletehear, hear!
ReplyDeleteCall it what you want, Andrew. I'm not interesting in making a game of it. I just want snow.
ReplyDeleteScott,
How is the mix/snow line looking so far back in Ohio and PA? Is it drifting farther north or south than projected? Or is it right on track?
Back from hibernation! Truth hurts. Back to hibernation!
ReplyDeleteI wish you would stay hibernated Andrew!
ReplyDeleteOh how we all wish you really would go hibernate...
ReplyDeleteandrew: i think i can speak for us all when i say you sound like a complete idiot..."back to hibernation blah blah blah. what is your deal. you have no life. At least the rest of us have the professionalism to not question the mets...I am a teacher and would not dream of questioning someone elses profession since i am not trained in that. I would expect no one to come into my classroom and question my knowledge either. stay in hibernation, you have no place here
ReplyDeleteandrew, first of all, 8 inches aint a bust. it is at the low end of most of the forecasts, some were alot higher ie: KW. I think a good forecast for the Roc is 10-14. NO BUST. I do think there is a good chance for some sleet all the way to the lake shore (briefly). But the Ruc has suddenly trended south and east and cooler. and I think I see an east turn on the satellite maps. My number for Roc is 12". I live in Irondequoit and like 14", As we will not see alot of LE enhancement unless this goes across central PA. RochesterDave aka: LION. lol
ReplyDeleteThe weather channel has us with at least 12in. not sure if that is a good thing?
ReplyDeleteScott- were you kidding about the storm being a bust?
ReplyDeleteNot that I want to agree with Andrew he is annoying but have you looked at the latest RUC does not look impressive and warm if I read it right? Help me out DK am I worrying about nothing?
ReplyDeletethe ruc has been the warmest model. as far as I know. only one that shows significant sleet for the Roc. RochesterDAve
ReplyDeleteAll this hibernation talk is difficult to bear...
ReplyDeleteThis storm is losing the punch just said Chicago not going to get the 2 feet they said 15 inches if lucky on the weather channel. The radar sure does look like the snow swath is going well north west of us and that yellow rain looks like it is coming at us. Very confusing.
ReplyDeleteAll I know is that 10-15 inches falling in about a ten hour period is pretty serious for a synoptic snowstorm. This will still be exciting to watch tomorrow morning, and SCOTT IS THE MAN!! He knows what he is doing, so watch his broadcast tonight, and you'll knoexactly what to expect tomorrow!!!
ReplyDeletei am getting very excited about this storm:)
ReplyDeleteWill they just cancel Brighton schools already!!!
ReplyDeleteI was always told by my mama that we get Chicago's weather so I expect 15-20 inches with winds gusting to 40mph. My mama never lied.
ReplyDeleteScott do you have an update based on any new data?
ReplyDeleteEast and West Irondequoit School Districts are closed tomorrow! Come on Greece!!
ReplyDeleteI'm planning on a major change in the storm forecast I think we are ignoring the fact that warmer air aloft is winning! FZ rain/Sleet at Cleveland already and 850mb is West of us in the morning. 10-14" ain't happening, folks. If I'm right, I think I'll be in disagreement with practically every other outlet whether it be TV or NWS but I see what I see!
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
come on Pittsford and Brighton!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAndrew, go get laid, maybe you will be less annoying!
ReplyDeleteBack out as I said a bust all you have to do is look at the radar we may get rain!
ReplyDeletelatest loop on intellicast looks like center of low going almost straight north!
ReplyDeleteAs I recall the big storm of 1978 shot north at the last minute. Buf got pounded and Roc got nothing.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, now that I got that out of the way, I was looking at the radar and noticed it appears all sleet ahead of it. I know last night Scott said that the green and yellow would be snow and not rain? Could that change to a point of rain or will it still be to cold for the rain/ice? I am curious seeing how I have three little girls and if we run into an ice storm, I want to get a generator before it hits if that COULD BE the case. Also, I don't recall giving out any totals yesterday Andrew so you may want to read back on my posts before you slam me my friend. I wasn't contributing earlier because I was out plowing a few drives from this mornings snow that gave us about 5 inches. Now, before you open your yap, I did not make a dime as now and then, I like to do it for free. Have a nice night Andrew and I will be sure to post my totals for snow through out the day. Unfortunately, I wont be jamming your favorite Donna Summer song tomorrow as The clients I have lined up are elderly and NYS screws people enough. Sorry, I am not one of those people. I must admit, you do crack me up!
ReplyDeleteIt seems like once the moisture gets to NY it becomes all snow.
ReplyDeleteWe might as well ignore this Andrew idiot...anyone can sit around and be negative and post things after they happen and try to sound smart...if your so smart, why aren't you on tv telling us all this right now? You are just runing this blog for everyone else. Get a life and go to some other blog...try craigslist, there are some scummy blogs on there that would fit you well.
ReplyDeleteSurface obs will tell the real story. It may be warm aloft, but that cold air at the surface may be very stubborn. Guess we will just have to wait and see what our snow totals will be. Mother nature will make the final decision on "who is right" and "who is wrong" with snow totals
ReplyDeleteBack out of hibernation! You are all funny the truth hurts check my posts and have not heard a thing from Mr. Nuedorff because I believe I said we will be lucky to get 6 incehs. Check out Scott's latest numbers maybe I will apply at news 8? Back to the weather hibernation cave!
ReplyDeleteThe radar shows heavy snow in Buffalo but some reports on the radar map have Buffalo receiving heavy rain right now. Is this freezing rain if anyone knows?
ReplyDeleteIs the Biggest Loser on tonight? It sure feels like it.
ReplyDeletethe oc line is holding. what thinks you scott? Toughest forecast since the last sleet storm 2 yrs ago. i'm starting to think the 0c line at 850 is gonna hold... Dont' let Andrew drive you off my friend. RochesterDave
ReplyDeleteThis is God speaking.
ReplyDeleteLike I said earlier on Tuesday:
Storm cancelled.
The end.
as it turns out, Andrew was right.
ReplyDelete